Open 810 | Aliensitter Needed! | Mafia wins

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I am going to follow Bingle all day and not just because he has a great ass

[Not_Mafia]

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

we should really speed yeet the shit out of Mena right

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Mena's lack of activity is completely unacceptable, i think we need to policy him tomorrow

Is it policy time NM?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I am pumped

the entire APD survived the night.

Means the scumbags this game are scared of us

[Not_Mafia]

Just 5 votes before I can quickhammer, let's go

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Like don’t take that as gospel but also don’t speedrun the elim tomo if I’m not here and don’t have a chance to check that

this is almost a challenge no?

VOTE: Menalque

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

mena is gonna be big mad if he's town

but the memes will be worth it if he's scum

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

who am i kidding the memes will be worth it if he's town too

[Gypyx]

yo mod how come we know their role if they *dissapeared* huh?

also VOTE: VFP

[Lukewarm]

Grandpa Mo or Menlaque today

If we are choosing between these two, I am leaning towards Mena. - I have Grandpa as a town read

VOTE: Mena

[Not_Mafia]

Gypyxypxyxypxypxypxpyx vote Mena

[Gypyx]

ok but why tho

[Gypyx]

actually

VOTE: Pine dude's iso is emptier than my list of meanigful life acheivements

[Not_Mafia]

He's been inactive sitewide, that's NAI, vote Menalque

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

after Mena flips scum we will kill his friend Pine next

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I've only played one game with Pine and he tried to pretend he was a tree.

he was actually scum.

[Not_Mafia]

Trees can be scum

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Trees are usually scum

they are so shady

[GrandpaMo]

Introduction

Spoiler:

Wow. So Drap actually flipped scum. I was so keen on them flipping town and now looking back at my tunnel and analyzing the confirmation bias I have now where they are scum… I just also researched what Encryptor does. Can anyone tell me what Cowardly modifier does or is? I can see what Bingle is talking about. I did outline 2 or 3 scum quotes in my analysis but never thought highly of it. Overall, I really thought they have played the same way. Honestly if I am scum for hard defending a mafia that’s fair; you can even think of a possible elim on me to remove any doubts/regrets the town may have. However I feel like the input I provided and this flip actually brings a lot of info. I will give different perspectives and approaches on how this may flip. I am used to the newbie setup where it is only two mafia and figuring out only one scum after night one. And now I have to decipher all the approaches that two scum may have been involved in. We are on a great start in my opinion…

First Approach:

The “full bus” approach. This is where both of the other scum hopped on the wagon and bussed here. This is also the most probable approach as we see everyone pushing for the vote and no one rejecting or focused somewhere besides me, Pine, Dann, and Mena (sort of…)

Second Approach:

The “semi bus” approach. This is where one scum is on the wagon and the other is either focused somewhere else or defending. This approach is the second most probable.

Third Approach:

The “off” approach. This is where both of the scum are not on the wagon as the name suggests. This is the last probable and this is because in my opinion, scum should have took the opportunity to bus to get more town cred plus because it was the most optimal at that time as no one was giving up the wagon nor pivoting. This pool consists of me, Pine, Dann, and Mena (sort of…I will get more into this in my analysis)

First approach analysis

Spoiler:

This is where both of the Drap’s teammates were on the wagon. This pool of players include but not limited to: Lukewarm, Gypyx, Pooky, (the three main aggressors), Almost50, Not_Mafia, Bingle, and VFP.

Through my impliciative reads I gave before the flip, I said that if drap flips scum then gypyx is most likely town and that would make T3 town. Now, I retract everything and Lukewarm turned out to be right. But now I am thinking about, was he right because he knew he was scum with Drapion? Why would you question my logic on why you and Drap could be paired. There is two possible choices here. This is only assuming VFP, Bingle, Almost50, NM, and Pooky are town:
Scum between Gypyx + T3 and scum between Luke + Drap which now we found out that Drap was the scum and so that makes Luke town and debunks my logic of the same alignment. Through THAT logic, this would make more of an implication that there is a high chance that there is scum between Gypyx + T3. Gypyx + Drap is way less likely because of the interaction pointed out earlier in my analysis on how there was one scum in there; turned out to be true. Going through that logic and now making an associate read with Gypyx or T3… this would imply that T3 is Drap’s partner through bussing. That is the first way to look at it. Second way is to look at early interaction from Drap. Pooky is the only other one who I can see paired with Drap here if pooky is scum. I did have a slight scumread on pooky individually before everything… questioning his weird playstyle that is unusual to me. I have played with him before and they never were this energetic or charismatic about the game like last time they flipped town. Looking back at the interactions to see a possible pairing. Pooky actually scum read Lukewarm first in post 376 and ignored interactions with Drapion later on. Then Pooky starts sheeping NM and Mena in post 45 but calls Mena scum in EoD. That's probably because pooky already had a scumread on them. Drap had always had pooky in their null reads. Also in post 614, pooky tells me that maybe my scumreads are bussing and is rushing a night phase to happen because they know they will possibly get townread for pushing this however this quote will be funny if pooky is actually aligned with Drap here. My other read was Bingle, but there were some early interactions that came off a better way honestly that makes it seem that Bingle doesn’t provide a whole scumcase on Drap as scum. Lastly, Almost50 is also another probable candidate… I was thinking about this one and I see how they could be aligned and this could be a second approach analysis but why I scumread them could have gotten on the input that they never really pushed Drap at all. Almost50 in post 158 respond to Drap saying they will take their word for calling my wall post good. They say in post 346, that they see VFP scum and have Gypyx, Drap, Pine and Man as null. And 6 others are not in the voting pool of his. In post 456, Almost50 finally brings Drap as scum and retracts VFP scum. I get on how about A50 tried to use surface level logic when calling me out on it. Responds with individual experience not group experience which is what I wasn’t saying here. I said everyone was experienced enough implying Drap was experienced to know. There are tidbits of A50 replying to Pooky regarding Drap including post 664. As well as others like post 343; 344, 349, 350. Small interaction that I caught while ISO’ing.
This may be a reach but possible same alignment as scum or town.

TLDR; If Drap was scum and the first approach seems to be true, possible alignment includes T3 + Pooky + Almost50.

Second Approach Analysis.

Spoiler:

This is the most realistic approach due to the nature of our players being afk / coasty. I actually think my alignment I will give on about this is true. I will also reference it back in my conclusion. So assuming that T3 is aligned with Drap here, the other person who is not here + defending (from the pool of pine, mena, grandpa, dann, and mann), would be Mena. Mena pointed something out in the beginning regarding how a post of Drap was scummy of his. I thought that was town. But Drap also converses and memes with Mena after and Drap in post 68 asks… “Mena am I in the right thread” as a possible openwolf. Mena comes back with no input at all until EoD. This is possible just lack of activity from town that could have been made to look bad for Mena. However another way to look at this, if T3 + Dann is a possible pair, if that were the case then the high probability will be that Bingle would be paired as the third scum but I said earlier that I doubt I see that Bingle is paired with Drap here so that would debunk T3 being with Dann. The only possible route for this T3 + Mena + Pine or Mann. Since there hasn’t been any info at ALL from pine or mann then that slot still is viable to a scum read and pairing with T3 + Mena. What about if T3 isn’t scum? Let us start with Mena being scum to remove bias; my whole logic would contradict if I put anyone else besides VFP and NM. For example, if I paired Mena + Pooky that means it would be a Mena + Pooky + A50 scum team which isn’t true at all. Or if I paired it with Luke then Luke + Gypyx + Mena scum team which again isn’t true at all. VFP, NM, Pine, Mann, Mena and T3 (assuming T3 is 33% scum; ⅓ chance in the bussing subject) + the ones I just listed (2/3 = 66% chance either or) are the only ones that would work well in this approach where one is bussing in this case (VFP, NM, T3) and two is somewhere else (Pine, Mann, Mena).

TLDR;

Most likely situation if the second approach is true: If T3 is scum from the first approach analysis then a viable scum team could be Mena + T3 + Drap (most likely) or Pine + T3 + Drap (don’t have info) or Mann + T3 + Drap. (don’t have info)

Probable situation if the second approach is true: If VFP is scum (probable) through bussing, then a viable scum team could be the same thing as T3’s scum team but instead of T3, replace it with VFP.

Really highly unlikely situation if the second approach is true: NM. Replace VFP with NM.

Third Approach Analysis

Spoiler:

This is the most unlikely approach out of the three. This pool consists of me, Mena, Pine, and Mann.

Scum could just easily be Pine + Mann + Drap or Pine + Mena + Drap or Mann + Mena + Drap. And no I am NOT including myself because I am town. This is unlikely because the lack of interactions when there are better interactions that have seemed more AI for town to see and decipher conclusions from.

The reason I said sort of is because yes they did vote Drap however it doesn’t count because of the lack of activity and reasoning they never provided therefore they never provided any input on Drap until EoD where they also never commented on anything regarding the game.

Conclusion

Spoiler:

This will probably be a TLDR. But since I got something wrong on Day 1, I am now opening my eyes to all of those perspectives. Do not get mad at me or offended if I paired you with etc. Please just reply and quote and explain to me on why and how. I have a specific way of thinking through my logic and that’s probably why.

In conclusion, I now lean town for Luke + Gypyx. I scumread T3 and see a possible pair that could be Pooky + A50 assuming Bingle, VFP, NM, and everyone who was on the wagon is town. And that is only through the first approach where two of the mafia were on the wagon, implying Pooky and A50 was on the wagon. Second approach is where I think the most likely situation is and basically I get my logic from approach one and combine it with approach two. I can’t pair with Pooky and A50 anymore because that’s two scum not 1. The only 1 scum scenario is VFP, T3, and NM and I can’t do Bingle, Luke, or Gypyx because I individually town read them through approach one. I think the most likely scenario is T3 + Mena (or maybe one of the afks if Mena is town). Third approach is irrelevant in my opinion.

Anyways that’s a quick TLDR on where I stand now. I am honestly confused but I am trying to make it make sense because this game is honestly hard.

Okay here is my fully analysis on that flip. @Pooky I gave you a TLDR in my conclusion just for you. However, I know I am on the chopping block because I did defend someone who indeed flipped scum which I really thought would flip town.

Thoughts on this night kill? I honestly think this is a weird kill. I am trying to think why would they kill Dann, they are either inexperienced or they thought they were paired with someone else. This doesn't bring any info though. Only interactions was with Bingle. I would need to ISO later.

[GrandpaMo]

CORRECTION: I listed 2/3 scum listed in the pool that wasn't pushing for it. Edit to 1/3 chance NOT 2/3 chance. I realized this because I wasn't thinking about Drap and thinking about the concurrent player pool with 3 scum.

CORRECTION2: Forgot to bold second approach in Introduction

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Mena + Pine is a fine solve let's do this

[GrandpaMo]

ANOTHER CORRECTION:

I FUCKING FORGOT MANN WAS REPLACED WITH N_M LOL.

So please remove Mann from the reads and do NOT replace Mann with N_M as logic would contradict.

Pool now would only consist of: pine, mena, grandpa, dann.

REPLACE MANN WITH DANN. ( I think I had a proactive interference moment since Dann and Mann are similar.

[GrandpaMo]

Mena + Pine is a fine solve let's do this

I really don't think its that easy. I am paranoid that one scum could be laying in your Animal Department and the other could be Mena / Pine

[T3]

Dannflor kill? Thanks for killing a nullread
At this point I'm ready to assume everyone on Drap is not scum.
I haven't seen GM scumplay so idk.
VOTE: A50