Open 810 | Aliensitter Needed! | Mafia wins


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Post Post #750 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 6:56 am

Post by Menalque »

In post 746, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
In post 743, Menalque wrote:
In post 740, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:to try to pretend you don't know he's gonna flip scum cuz u look kinda scummy ghosting while he goes down so you wanted to do some playacting
this just feels very suboptimal?

like if I'm aware he's going down then I probably bus him or try to save him

what I don't do is waver on the "ehh I guess we can lim him but idk if he's flipping scum" line because that basically always gets SR

like go and read Secrets of the Anuket Topaz and there's another game I can find probably from around the same time where I was miselimmed for having been pushing the wrong wagon D1, but my interactions with the flipped scum were just so deeply obviously bad-looking on surface level that it was p clear that I wasn't scum with them

ok but this is post he has already been hammered

so you don't have a choice of saving him or bussing him.

so you pretending to be mad that we hammered him is just a way for you to play up "being unaware" of his alignment - which feels fake and performative to me.
right but my point is that I didn't need a prod at that point, and I was behind but trying to keep up with the game

at the very least I could have plopped down a vote on him earlier for the bus

and again, I just... I don't think you have a great understanding of my scumgame, because I kinda broadly align with "just sftu if in doubt" as a philosophy. so I just think it's very unlikely that I play for some dubious WIFOM gambit rather than just not commenting at all and then trying to come back at it today
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Post Post #751 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 6:57 am

Post by Menalque »

pooky u literally know that I'm getting kicked out of my apartment and have been flat hunting for the last 10 days or so

u may not know that I found a place and am moving my stuff across in the evenings this week, but you definitely are aware that (1) I have IRL stuff and (2) that I don't lie about IRL stuff
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Post Post #752 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 6:59 am

Post by Menalque »

In post 749, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:like you can't self-meta as "I would've helped out/bussed my buddy so therefore I'm not scum" while excusing inactivity as "I have RL issues that prevent me from playing"
this is kind of fair but obviously I've had enough time to not rep-out

I would have taken a harder stance on Drap in one direction or the other if I were scum, which is what I always do as scum, even if it wouldn't have looked as good as if I'd had more time
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Post Post #753 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 6:59 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

like here's the crux of my scumread beyond your activity issues which I meta-read as scum indicative and I've given you plenty of time to come back to the thread imo.

You came in here after the hammer already fell and chewed us out for hammering Drapion or w/e right?

Now let's say you're town!Mena,

what standing does Town!Mena have to come in and chew us out for elimming someone
when Town!Mena isn't even playing the game or connected to game state because of RL issues?


It doesn't make sense for me to believe Town!you is actually mad at us for elimming drapion when you're not even playing the game.

Like what did you want us to do? Wait for your input? Wait for your RL issues to pass so you could play the game? Like I don't get it.

So that leads me to:

You are scum trying to get towncred by pretending you don't know that Drapion is going to flip scum and you come in with how you think Town!Mena would react to a misflip on D1 without his input.
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Post Post #754 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 7:00 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

In post 751, Menalque wrote:pooky u literally know that I'm getting kicked out of my apartment and have been flat hunting for the last 10 days or so

u may not know that I found a place and am moving my stuff across in the evenings this week, but you definitely are aware that (1) I have IRL stuff and (2) that I don't lie about IRL stuff
uh i didnt know about the apartment stuff

good luck with the move!
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Post Post #755 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 7:06 am

Post by Menalque »

oh, I thought I'd mentioned it in the TFT discord but maybe it was just to ydra

thanks!

I was annoyed that drap got limmed right around the weekend when I finally had (a bit of) free time and was planning to try and play, that's it
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Post Post #756 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 7:10 am

Post by lendunistus »

Open 810 Official Vote Count - 2.0


Menalque
(2): PookyTheMagicalBear, Lukewarm
Almost50
(1): T3
Pine
(1): Gypyx

Not Voting
(7): Almost50, Menalque, Pine, Bingle, GrandpaMo, Not_Mafia, VFP

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to shove someone's head into an energy core.

Deadline
: (expired on 2021-05-20 15:00:00)

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In post 709, Gypyx wrote:yo mod how come we know their role if they *dissapeared* huh
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Post Post #757 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 7:30 am

Post by Not_Mafia »

In post 728, GrandpaMo wrote:
In post 726, Not_Mafia wrote:
In post 719, GrandpaMo wrote:
Introduction

Spoiler:
Wow. So Drap actually flipped scum. I was so keen on them flipping town and now looking back at my tunnel and analyzing the confirmation bias I have now where they are scum… I just also researched what Encryptor does. Can anyone tell me what Cowardly modifier does or is? I can see what Bingle is talking about. I did outline 2 or 3 scum quotes in my analysis but never thought highly of it. Overall, I really thought they have played the same way. Honestly if I am scum for hard defending a mafia that’s fair; you can even think of a possible elim on me to remove any doubts/regrets the town may have. However I feel like the input I provided and this flip actually brings a lot of info. I will give different perspectives and approaches on how this may flip. I am used to the newbie setup where it is only two mafia and figuring out only one scum after night one. And now I have to decipher all the approaches that two scum may have been involved in. We are on a great start in my opinion…

First Approach:

The “full bus” approach. This is where both of the other scum hopped on the wagon and bussed here. This is also the most probable approach as we see everyone pushing for the vote and no one rejecting or focused somewhere besides me, Pine, Dann, and Mena (sort of…)

Second Approach:

The “semi bus” approach. This is where one scum is on the wagon and the other is either focused somewhere else or defending. This approach is the second most probable.

Third Approach:

The “off” approach. This is where both of the scum are not on the wagon as the name suggests. This is the last probable and this is because in my opinion, scum should have took the opportunity to bus to get more town cred plus because it was the most optimal at that time as no one was giving up the wagon nor pivoting. This pool consists of me, Pine, Dann, and Mena (sort of…I will get more into this in my analysis)


First approach analysis

Spoiler:
This is where both of the Drap’s teammates were on the wagon. This pool of players include but not limited to: Lukewarm, Gypyx, Pooky, (the three main aggressors), Almost50, Not_Mafia, Bingle, and VFP.

Through my impliciative reads I gave before the flip, I said that if drap flips scum then gypyx is most likely town and that would make T3 town. Now, I retract everything and Lukewarm turned out to be right. But now I am thinking about, was he right because he knew he was scum with Drapion? Why would you question my logic on why you and Drap could be paired. There is two possible choices here. This is only assuming VFP, Bingle, Almost50, NM, and Pooky are town:
Scum between Gypyx + T3 and scum between Luke + Drap which now we found out that Drap was the scum and so that makes Luke town and debunks my logic of the same alignment. Through THAT logic, this would make more of an implication that there is a high chance that there is scum between Gypyx + T3. Gypyx + Drap is way less likely because of the interaction pointed out earlier in my analysis on how there was one scum in there; turned out to be true. Going through that logic and now making an associate read with Gypyx or T3… this would imply that T3 is Drap’s partner through bussing. That is the first way to look at it. Second way is to look at early interaction from Drap. Pooky is the only other one who I can see paired with Drap here if pooky is scum. I did have a slight scumread on pooky individually before everything… questioning his weird playstyle that is unusual to me. I have played with him before and they never were this energetic or charismatic about the game like last time they flipped town. Looking back at the interactions to see a possible pairing. Pooky actually scum read Lukewarm first in post 376 and ignored interactions with Drapion later on. Then Pooky starts sheeping NM and Mena in post 45 but calls Mena scum in EoD. That's probably because pooky already had a scumread on them. Drap had always had pooky in their null reads. Also in post 614, pooky tells me that maybe my scumreads are bussing and is rushing a night phase to happen because they know they will possibly get townread for pushing this however this quote will be funny if pooky is actually aligned with Drap here. My other read was Bingle, but there were some early interactions that came off a better way honestly that makes it seem that Bingle doesn’t provide a whole scumcase on Drap as scum. Lastly, Almost50 is also another probable candidate… I was thinking about this one and I see how they could be aligned and this could be a second approach analysis but why I scumread them could have gotten on the input that they never really pushed Drap at all. Almost50 in post 158 respond to Drap saying they will take their word for calling my wall post good. They say in post 346, that they see VFP scum and have Gypyx, Drap, Pine and Man as null. And 6 others are not in the voting pool of his. In post 456, Almost50 finally brings Drap as scum and retracts VFP scum. I get on how about A50 tried to use surface level logic when calling me out on it. Responds with individual experience not group experience which is what I wasn’t saying here. I said everyone was experienced enough implying Drap was experienced to know. There are tidbits of A50 replying to Pooky regarding Drap including post 664. As well as others like post 343; 344, 349, 350. Small interaction that I caught while ISO’ing.
This may be a reach but possible same alignment as scum or town.

TLDR; If Drap was scum and the first approach seems to be true, possible alignment includes T3 + Pooky + Almost50.


Second Approach Analysis.

Spoiler:
This is the most realistic approach due to the nature of our players being afk / coasty. I actually think my alignment I will give on about this is true. I will also reference it back in my conclusion. So assuming that T3 is aligned with Drap here, the other person who is not here + defending (from the pool of pine, mena, grandpa, dann, and mann), would be Mena. Mena pointed something out in the beginning regarding how a post of Drap was scummy of his. I thought that was town. But Drap also converses and memes with Mena after and Drap in post 68 asks… “Mena am I in the right thread” as a possible openwolf. Mena comes back with no input at all until EoD. This is possible just lack of activity from town that could have been made to look bad for Mena. However another way to look at this, if T3 + Dann is a possible pair, if that were the case then the high probability will be that Bingle would be paired as the third scum but I said earlier that I doubt I see that Bingle is paired with Drap here so that would debunk T3 being with Dann. The only possible route for this T3 + Mena + Pine or Mann. Since there hasn’t been any info at ALL from pine or mann then that slot still is viable to a scum read and pairing with T3 + Mena. What about if T3 isn’t scum? Let us start with Mena being scum to remove bias; my whole logic would contradict if I put anyone else besides VFP and NM. For example, if I paired Mena + Pooky that means it would be a Mena + Pooky + A50 scum team which isn’t true at all. Or if I paired it with Luke then Luke + Gypyx + Mena scum team which again isn’t true at all. VFP, NM, Pine, Mann, Mena and T3 (assuming T3 is 33% scum; ⅓ chance in the bussing subject) + the ones I just listed (2/3 = 66% chance either or) are the only ones that would work well in this approach where one is bussing in this case (VFP, NM, T3) and two is somewhere else (Pine, Mann, Mena).

TLDR;

Most likely situation if the second approach is true: If T3 is scum from the first approach analysis then a viable scum team could be Mena + T3 + Drap (most likely) or Pine + T3 + Drap (don’t have info) or Mann + T3 + Drap. (don’t have info)

Probable situation if the second approach is true: If VFP is scum (probable) through bussing, then a viable scum team could be the same thing as T3’s scum team but instead of T3, replace it with VFP.

Really highly unlikely situation if the second approach is true: NM. Replace VFP with NM.


Third Approach Analysis

Spoiler:
This is the most unlikely approach out of the three. This pool consists of me, Mena, Pine, and Mann.

Scum could just easily be Pine + Mann + Drap or Pine + Mena + Drap or Mann + Mena + Drap. And no I am NOT including myself because I am town. This is unlikely because the lack of interactions when there are better interactions that have seemed more AI for town to see and decipher conclusions from.

The reason I said sort of is because yes they did vote Drap however it doesn’t count because of the lack of activity and reasoning they never provided therefore they never provided any input on Drap until EoD where they also never commented on anything regarding the game.

Conclusion

Spoiler:
This will probably be a TLDR. But since I got something wrong on Day 1, I am now opening my eyes to all of those perspectives. Do not get mad at me or offended if I paired you with etc. Please just reply and quote and explain to me on why and how. I have a specific way of thinking through my logic and that’s probably why.

In conclusion, I now lean town for Luke + Gypyx. I scumread T3 and see a possible pair that could be Pooky + A50 assuming Bingle, VFP, NM, and everyone who was on the wagon is town. And that is only through the first approach where two of the mafia were on the wagon, implying Pooky and A50 was on the wagon. Second approach is where I think the most likely situation is and basically I get my logic from approach one and combine it with approach two. I can’t pair with Pooky and A50 anymore because that’s two scum not 1. The only 1 scum scenario is VFP, T3, and NM and I can’t do Bingle, Luke, or Gypyx because I individually town read them through approach one. I think the most likely scenario is T3 + Mena (or maybe one of the afks if Mena is town). Third approach is irrelevant in my opinion.

Anyways that’s a quick TLDR on where I stand now. I am honestly confused but I am trying to make it make sense because this game is honestly hard.


Okay here is my fully analysis on that flip. @Pooky I gave you a TLDR in my conclusion just for you. However, I know I am on the chopping block because I did defend someone who indeed flipped scum which I really thought would flip town.

Thoughts on this night kill? I honestly think this is a weird kill. I am trying to think why would they kill Dann, they are either inexperienced or they thought they were paired with someone else. This doesn't bring any info though. Only interactions was with Bingle. I would need to ISO later.
Tl;dr
its in the conclusion.

"This will probably be a TLDR. But since I got something wrong on Day 1, I am now opening my eyes to all of those perspectives. Do not get mad at me or offended if I paired you with etc. Please just reply and quote and explain to me on why and how. I have a specific way of thinking through my logic and that’s probably why.

In conclusion, I now lean town for Luke + Gypyx. I scumread T3 and see a possible pair that could be Pooky + A50 assuming Bingle, VFP, NM, and everyone who was on the wagon is town. And that is only through the first approach where two of the mafia were on the wagon, implying Pooky and A50 was on the wagon. Second approach is where I think the most likely situation is and basically I get my logic from approach one and combine it with approach two. I can’t pair with Pooky and A50 anymore because that’s two scum not 1. The only 1 scum scenario is VFP, T3, and NM (who were on the wagon) and I can’t do Bingle, Luke, or Gypyx because I individually town read them through approach one. I think the most likely scenario is T3 + Mena (or maybe one of the afks if Mena is town). Third approach is irrelevant in my opinion.

Anyways that’s a quick TLDR on where I stand now. I am honestly confused but I am trying to make it make sense because this game is honestly hard."
Still tl;dr
Also, what is Not_Mafia doing? This is some of the worst play I’ve ever seen.
I will SEARCH for games with you and N_M to help you policy him.
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Post Post #758 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 7:43 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 755, Menalque wrote:drap got limmed right around the weekend when I finally had (a bit of) free time and was planning to try and play
I did this just for you. I just wanted to make you feel that sweet sweet frustration.
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Post Post #759 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 7:44 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 751, Menalque wrote:I found a place
Yay!

Good Luck Mena. Come back to us when you're less busy with IRL. I'll try to make sure the thread is locked for night when you do ;)
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Post Post #760 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 7:47 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 696, lendunistus wrote:Dannflor has disappeared! They were a Vanilla Townie.
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Post Post #761 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 8:03 am

Post by Bingle »

Right. I received a psychologist innocent result on Dannflor.

Please claim your real result or a fake one in your next post, if you haven't done so already. If you got a no result due to being roleblocked, you should claim to have targeted Dannflor, regardless of your actual target.

The reason this is valuable is because there is a 1/11 chance for a false guilty, a 1/11 for a useless result (Dannflor), a 1/11 for a real guilty, and a 8/11 for a real inno. That means that 73% of the time the D1 Psychologist result is useful. It's also likely that the mafia team already has a significantly reduced PR pool based on play and Motion Detection.

We should not hypoclaim results tomorrow, as after tonight the psychologist is probably completely useless in generating innos and guilties (Both scum will have successfully killed, and thus both scum will be false innocents.) but the Psychologist should still be targeting to obfuscate MD results.

We 100% should be aiming to murderface the Roleblocker specifically today, which means that we're aiming specifically for the most protected of the scumlords. The roleblocker, assuming setup understanding, will have been marginally more likely to bus and will be marginally less likely to have been bussed. I intend at some point to look through Drap's townreads as that is where I'll be focusing the majority of my attention.

The day opening of votes on Mena make me disinclined to vote there.
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Post Post #762 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 8:04 am

Post by Bingle »

OH LORD WOMBAT, GREAT TREE OF THE FOREST, YOUR SHEEP CAPTAIN BECKONS. ISO THE DRAPION AND GIVE UNTO ME YOUR THOUGHTS.
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Post Post #763 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 8:16 am

Post by Not_Mafia »

I got an innocent on Grandpa Mo
Also, what is Not_Mafia doing? This is some of the worst play I’ve ever seen.
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Post Post #764 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 8:17 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I received a psychologist innocent result on Pine.
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Post Post #765 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 8:18 am

Post by GrandpaMo »

In post 761, Bingle wrote:Right. I received a psychologist innocent result on Dannflor.

Please claim your real result or a fake one in your next post, if you haven't done so already. If you got a no result due to being roleblocked, you should claim to have targeted Dannflor, regardless of your actual target.

The reason this is valuable is because there is a 1/11 chance for a false guilty, a 1/11 for a useless result (Dannflor), a 1/11 for a real guilty, and a 8/11 for a real inno. That means that 73% of the time the D1 Psychologist result is useful. It's also likely that the mafia team already has a significantly reduced PR pool based on play and Motion Detection.

We should not hypoclaim results tomorrow, as after tonight the psychologist is probably completely useless in generating innos and guilties (Both scum will have successfully killed, and thus both scum will be false innocents.) but the Psychologist should still be targeting to obfuscate MD results.

We 100% should be aiming to murderface the Roleblocker specifically today, which means that we're aiming specifically for the most protected of the scumlords. The roleblocker, assuming setup understanding, will have been marginally more likely to bus and will be marginally less likely to have been bussed. I intend at some point to look through Drap's townreads as that is where I'll be focusing the majority of my attention.

The day opening of votes on Mena make me disinclined to vote there.
wait why out a inno on the dead person . is it because of babysitter can protect u?
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Post Post #766 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 8:20 am

Post by GrandpaMo »

In post 763, Not_Mafia wrote:I got an innocent on Grandpa Mo
ofc i am
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Post Post #767 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 8:21 am

Post by GrandpaMo »

also is it possible to get a replacement with pine? i really dont want to have to sit here being paranoid about an afk scumslot
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Post Post #768 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 8:21 am

Post by GrandpaMo »

In post 765, GrandpaMo wrote:
In post 761, Bingle wrote:Right. I received a psychologist innocent result on Dannflor.

Please claim your real result or a fake one in your next post, if you haven't done so already. If you got a no result due to being roleblocked, you should claim to have targeted Dannflor, regardless of your actual target.

The reason this is valuable is because there is a 1/11 chance for a false guilty, a 1/11 for a useless result (Dannflor), a 1/11 for a real guilty, and a 8/11 for a real inno. That means that 73% of the time the D1 Psychologist result is useful. It's also likely that the mafia team already has a significantly reduced PR pool based on play and Motion Detection.

We should not hypoclaim results tomorrow, as after tonight the psychologist is probably completely useless in generating innos and guilties (Both scum will have successfully killed, and thus both scum will be false innocents.) but the Psychologist should still be targeting to obfuscate MD results.

We 100% should be aiming to murderface the Roleblocker specifically today, which means that we're aiming specifically for the most protected of the scumlords. The roleblocker, assuming setup understanding, will have been marginally more likely to bus and will be marginally less likely to have been bussed. I intend at some point to look through Drap's townreads as that is where I'll be focusing the majority of my attention.

The day opening of votes on Mena make me disinclined to vote there.
wait why out a inno on the dead person . is it because of babysitter can protect u?

because i got a guilty on you lol
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Post Post #769 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 8:22 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 765, GrandpaMo wrote:
In post 761, Bingle wrote:Right. I received a psychologist innocent result on Dannflor.

Please claim your real result or a fake one in your next post, if you haven't done so already. If you got a no result due to being roleblocked, you should claim to have targeted Dannflor, regardless of your actual target.

The reason this is valuable is because there is a 1/11 chance for a false guilty, a 1/11 for a useless result (Dannflor), a 1/11 for a real guilty, and a 8/11 for a real inno. That means that 73% of the time the D1 Psychologist result is useful. It's also likely that the mafia team already has a significantly reduced PR pool based on play and Motion Detection.

We should not hypoclaim results tomorrow, as after tonight the psychologist is probably completely useless in generating innos and guilties (Both scum will have successfully killed, and thus both scum will be false innocents.) but the Psychologist should still be targeting to obfuscate MD results.

We 100% should be aiming to murderface the Roleblocker specifically today, which means that we're aiming specifically for the most protected of the scumlords. The roleblocker, assuming setup understanding, will have been marginally more likely to bus and will be marginally less likely to have been bussed. I intend at some point to look through Drap's townreads as that is where I'll be focusing the majority of my attention.

The day opening of votes on Mena make me disinclined to vote there.
wait why out a inno on the dead person . is it because of babysitter can protect u?
The point, I think, is that if the psychologist dies before they find a guilty result (which is when they should publicly claim their role) then we can look back to what ever they claimed today, and use that info.

So everyone should be making a claim for a psychologist role. The real psychologist is trying to leave their results for posterity. Everyone else is making a claim so that the real psychologist doesn't out themselves in the process.
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Post Post #770 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 8:24 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Wait, are you hard claiming Psychologist with a guilty result?
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Post Post #771 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 8:26 am

Post by GrandpaMo »

In post 757, Not_Mafia wrote:
In post 728, GrandpaMo wrote:
In post 726, Not_Mafia wrote:
In post 719, GrandpaMo wrote:
Introduction

Spoiler:
Wow. So Drap actually flipped scum. I was so keen on them flipping town and now looking back at my tunnel and analyzing the confirmation bias I have now where they are scum… I just also researched what Encryptor does. Can anyone tell me what Cowardly modifier does or is? I can see what Bingle is talking about. I did outline 2 or 3 scum quotes in my analysis but never thought highly of it. Overall, I really thought they have played the same way. Honestly if I am scum for hard defending a mafia that’s fair; you can even think of a possible elim on me to remove any doubts/regrets the town may have. However I feel like the input I provided and this flip actually brings a lot of info. I will give different perspectives and approaches on how this may flip. I am used to the newbie setup where it is only two mafia and figuring out only one scum after night one. And now I have to decipher all the approaches that two scum may have been involved in. We are on a great start in my opinion…

First Approach:

The “full bus” approach. This is where both of the other scum hopped on the wagon and bussed here. This is also the most probable approach as we see everyone pushing for the vote and no one rejecting or focused somewhere besides me, Pine, Dann, and Mena (sort of…)

Second Approach:

The “semi bus” approach. This is where one scum is on the wagon and the other is either focused somewhere else or defending. This approach is the second most probable.

Third Approach:

The “off” approach. This is where both of the scum are not on the wagon as the name suggests. This is the last probable and this is because in my opinion, scum should have took the opportunity to bus to get more town cred plus because it was the most optimal at that time as no one was giving up the wagon nor pivoting. This pool consists of me, Pine, Dann, and Mena (sort of…I will get more into this in my analysis)


First approach analysis

Spoiler:
This is where both of the Drap’s teammates were on the wagon. This pool of players include but not limited to: Lukewarm, Gypyx, Pooky, (the three main aggressors), Almost50, Not_Mafia, Bingle, and VFP.

Through my impliciative reads I gave before the flip, I said that if drap flips scum then gypyx is most likely town and that would make T3 town. Now, I retract everything and Lukewarm turned out to be right. But now I am thinking about, was he right because he knew he was scum with Drapion? Why would you question my logic on why you and Drap could be paired. There is two possible choices here. This is only assuming VFP, Bingle, Almost50, NM, and Pooky are town:
Scum between Gypyx + T3 and scum between Luke + Drap which now we found out that Drap was the scum and so that makes Luke town and debunks my logic of the same alignment. Through THAT logic, this would make more of an implication that there is a high chance that there is scum between Gypyx + T3. Gypyx + Drap is way less likely because of the interaction pointed out earlier in my analysis on how there was one scum in there; turned out to be true. Going through that logic and now making an associate read with Gypyx or T3… this would imply that T3 is Drap’s partner through bussing. That is the first way to look at it. Second way is to look at early interaction from Drap. Pooky is the only other one who I can see paired with Drap here if pooky is scum. I did have a slight scumread on pooky individually before everything… questioning his weird playstyle that is unusual to me. I have played with him before and they never were this energetic or charismatic about the game like last time they flipped town. Looking back at the interactions to see a possible pairing. Pooky actually scum read Lukewarm first in post 376 and ignored interactions with Drapion later on. Then Pooky starts sheeping NM and Mena in post 45 but calls Mena scum in EoD. That's probably because pooky already had a scumread on them. Drap had always had pooky in their null reads. Also in post 614, pooky tells me that maybe my scumreads are bussing and is rushing a night phase to happen because they know they will possibly get townread for pushing this however this quote will be funny if pooky is actually aligned with Drap here. My other read was Bingle, but there were some early interactions that came off a better way honestly that makes it seem that Bingle doesn’t provide a whole scumcase on Drap as scum. Lastly, Almost50 is also another probable candidate… I was thinking about this one and I see how they could be aligned and this could be a second approach analysis but why I scumread them could have gotten on the input that they never really pushed Drap at all. Almost50 in post 158 respond to Drap saying they will take their word for calling my wall post good. They say in post 346, that they see VFP scum and have Gypyx, Drap, Pine and Man as null. And 6 others are not in the voting pool of his. In post 456, Almost50 finally brings Drap as scum and retracts VFP scum. I get on how about A50 tried to use surface level logic when calling me out on it. Responds with individual experience not group experience which is what I wasn’t saying here. I said everyone was experienced enough implying Drap was experienced to know. There are tidbits of A50 replying to Pooky regarding Drap including post 664. As well as others like post 343; 344, 349, 350. Small interaction that I caught while ISO’ing.
This may be a reach but possible same alignment as scum or town.

TLDR; If Drap was scum and the first approach seems to be true, possible alignment includes T3 + Pooky + Almost50.


Second Approach Analysis.

Spoiler:
This is the most realistic approach due to the nature of our players being afk / coasty. I actually think my alignment I will give on about this is true. I will also reference it back in my conclusion. So assuming that T3 is aligned with Drap here, the other person who is not here + defending (from the pool of pine, mena, grandpa, dann, and mann), would be Mena. Mena pointed something out in the beginning regarding how a post of Drap was scummy of his. I thought that was town. But Drap also converses and memes with Mena after and Drap in post 68 asks… “Mena am I in the right thread” as a possible openwolf. Mena comes back with no input at all until EoD. This is possible just lack of activity from town that could have been made to look bad for Mena. However another way to look at this, if T3 + Dann is a possible pair, if that were the case then the high probability will be that Bingle would be paired as the third scum but I said earlier that I doubt I see that Bingle is paired with Drap here so that would debunk T3 being with Dann. The only possible route for this T3 + Mena + Pine or Mann. Since there hasn’t been any info at ALL from pine or mann then that slot still is viable to a scum read and pairing with T3 + Mena. What about if T3 isn’t scum? Let us start with Mena being scum to remove bias; my whole logic would contradict if I put anyone else besides VFP and NM. For example, if I paired Mena + Pooky that means it would be a Mena + Pooky + A50 scum team which isn’t true at all. Or if I paired it with Luke then Luke + Gypyx + Mena scum team which again isn’t true at all. VFP, NM, Pine, Mann, Mena and T3 (assuming T3 is 33% scum; ⅓ chance in the bussing subject) + the ones I just listed (2/3 = 66% chance either or) are the only ones that would work well in this approach where one is bussing in this case (VFP, NM, T3) and two is somewhere else (Pine, Mann, Mena).

TLDR;

Most likely situation if the second approach is true: If T3 is scum from the first approach analysis then a viable scum team could be Mena + T3 + Drap (most likely) or Pine + T3 + Drap (don’t have info) or Mann + T3 + Drap. (don’t have info)

Probable situation if the second approach is true: If VFP is scum (probable) through bussing, then a viable scum team could be the same thing as T3’s scum team but instead of T3, replace it with VFP.

Really highly unlikely situation if the second approach is true: NM. Replace VFP with NM.


Third Approach Analysis

Spoiler:
This is the most unlikely approach out of the three. This pool consists of me, Mena, Pine, and Mann.

Scum could just easily be Pine + Mann + Drap or Pine + Mena + Drap or Mann + Mena + Drap. And no I am NOT including myself because I am town. This is unlikely because the lack of interactions when there are better interactions that have seemed more AI for town to see and decipher conclusions from.

The reason I said sort of is because yes they did vote Drap however it doesn’t count because of the lack of activity and reasoning they never provided therefore they never provided any input on Drap until EoD where they also never commented on anything regarding the game.

Conclusion

Spoiler:
This will probably be a TLDR. But since I got something wrong on Day 1, I am now opening my eyes to all of those perspectives. Do not get mad at me or offended if I paired you with etc. Please just reply and quote and explain to me on why and how. I have a specific way of thinking through my logic and that’s probably why.

In conclusion, I now lean town for Luke + Gypyx. I scumread T3 and see a possible pair that could be Pooky + A50 assuming Bingle, VFP, NM, and everyone who was on the wagon is town. And that is only through the first approach where two of the mafia were on the wagon, implying Pooky and A50 was on the wagon. Second approach is where I think the most likely situation is and basically I get my logic from approach one and combine it with approach two. I can’t pair with Pooky and A50 anymore because that’s two scum not 1. The only 1 scum scenario is VFP, T3, and NM and I can’t do Bingle, Luke, or Gypyx because I individually town read them through approach one. I think the most likely scenario is T3 + Mena (or maybe one of the afks if Mena is town). Third approach is irrelevant in my opinion.

Anyways that’s a quick TLDR on where I stand now. I am honestly confused but I am trying to make it make sense because this game is honestly hard.


Okay here is my fully analysis on that flip. @Pooky I gave you a TLDR in my conclusion just for you. However, I know I am on the chopping block because I did defend someone who indeed flipped scum which I really thought would flip town.

Thoughts on this night kill? I honestly think this is a weird kill. I am trying to think why would they kill Dann, they are either inexperienced or they thought they were paired with someone else. This doesn't bring any info though. Only interactions was with Bingle. I would need to ISO later.
Tl;dr
its in the conclusion.

"This will probably be a TLDR. But since I got something wrong on Day 1, I am now opening my eyes to all of those perspectives. Do not get mad at me or offended if I paired you with etc. Please just reply and quote and explain to me on why and how. I have a specific way of thinking through my logic and that’s probably why.

In conclusion, I now lean town for Luke + Gypyx. I scumread T3 and see a possible pair that could be Pooky + A50 assuming Bingle, VFP, NM, and everyone who was on the wagon is town. And that is only through the first approach where two of the mafia were on the wagon, implying Pooky and A50 was on the wagon. Second approach is where I think the most likely situation is and basically I get my logic from approach one and combine it with approach two. I can’t pair with Pooky and A50 anymore because that’s two scum not 1. The only 1 scum scenario is VFP, T3, and NM (who were on the wagon) and I can’t do Bingle, Luke, or Gypyx because I individually town read them through approach one. I think the most likely scenario is T3 + Mena (or maybe one of the afks if Mena is town). Third approach is irrelevant in my opinion.

Anyways that’s a quick TLDR on where I stand now. I am honestly confused but I am trying to make it make sense because this game is honestly hard."
Still tl;dr
im not gonna keep minimizing my tldr to get it to ur fit standards. you should be able to understand what im saying thru my conclusion. trust me i could have gotten way longer but spending through the weekend actually analyzing this game and approaches isn't about to get blown out of proportion lol
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Post Post #772 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 8:27 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

I have no result due to being roleblocked and I targeted Dannflor


am I doing this right?
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Post Post #773 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 8:27 am

Post by GrandpaMo »

In post 770, Lukewarm wrote:Wait, are you hard claiming Psychologist with a guilty result?
why are you contradicting your own logic.
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Post Post #774 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2021 8:27 am

Post by GrandpaMo »

isn't the point of this, not to worry bout the result?
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