Mini Normal 2205: RotITGBSMoD [game over!]

[mastina]

you're balancing the game as if the town had the information that their power roles had guns and the mafia have no guns.

To at least some extent?

Yes, because that's something the town had at least partially the info available to know.

The town knew there was at least one mafia with no gun, because the town knew there was at least one mafia doctor. (Mafia doctors do not have guns.)
The town knew there were four roles in the game with a gun.
The town knew that with one mafia doctor (which did not have a gun), that there were at least two town players with a gun. (With four guns in the game, and one mafia guaranteed to not have a gun, that meant a maximum of two scum-guns meaning a minimum of two town guns.)

The town knew that at least 2/4 of their PRs would have guns.
And that at least 1/3 of the scum would not have guns.

Having some faith in a PR with a gun being town is thus logical and to be expected, because the town KNOWS it to be at least partially true.

The town not fully believing all of the PRs was something that was expected in the review. It was not expected to have the town fully believe every one of their PRs with guns to be town, sure! But having faith in

some

of them being town from the available information, IS.

The town didn't need to trust all of their PRs to be town, but the town should have at least some trust in at least

some

of their PRs to be town, given the information they had at their disposal. It wasn't expected for all four to be seen as town, but 2-3 seen as town given the public info and outed info was the expected result given that the town knew 2 guns minimum came from town.

Also in general, I would like to reiterate that knowing there is a mafia doctor in the game, while not meaning there isn't a town doctor in the game 100%, does mean the chances of a town doctor plummet to .01%. A town doctor in a game where there's public information of a scum doctor isn't 100% impossible, but it's 99.99% improbable in that it's something you're almost never going to ever see. It IS expected that there isn't a town doctor in a game where there's publicly confirmed presence of a mafia doctor. The presence of a town doctor in a game where it's public information that there's a mafia doctor is explicitly going to be the exception to the rule of them not being there.

[DkKoba]

also if theres a town doctor they clain daystart a'la miller lol

But also like i said before, this was a run that was a rogue variable bc the worst case scenario for a lot of things happened at once. If i was limmed d2/d3 my team would have struggled a lot more. We were forced to kill the GS and the Napolitan and the rolecop was a threat we didnt know how many shots they might have.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Also in general, I would like to reiterate that knowing there is a mafia doctor in the game, while not meaning there isn't a town doctor in the game 100%, does mean the chances of a town doctor plummet to .01%. A town doctor in a game where there's public information of a scum doctor isn't 100% impossible, but it's 99.99% improbable in that it's something you're almost never going to ever see. It IS expected that there isn't a town doctor in a game where there's publicly confirmed presence of a mafia doctor. The presence of a town doctor in a game where it's public information that there's a mafia doctor is explicitly going to be the exception to the rule of them not being there.

this isn't even true.

how does the existence of a mafia doctor imply that the chance of a town doctor is at 00.01% ?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

also if theres a town doctor they clain daystart a'la miller lol

But also like i said before, this was a run that was a rogue variable bc the worst case scenario for a lot of things happened at once. If i was limmed d2/d3 my team would have struggled a lot more. We were forced to kill the GS and the Napolitan and the rolecop was a threat we didnt know how many shots they might have.

nobody claims a doctor like a miller what

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

do you think its not a reasonable assumption for the town to believe that if they have a gunsmith that at least one bad guy should have a gun?

[mastina]

how does the existence of a mafia doctor imply that the chance of a town doctor is at 00.01% ?

Well aside from the fact that both reviewers and game designers almost never have two of the exact same role but have it be different alignments, aside from the fact that it would in this specific setup where there is public information be very unfair to the town doctor given the public info of a scum doctor, aside from the fact that town doctor doesn't fit into the setup but scum doctor does, aside from the general gunsmith mechanics where doctors are scum in games with gunsmiths, aside from all of that?

Just general design principle and the expectations of players and the process of reviewers I guess.

Which is to say there's a lot of reasons. It's not one singular reason that a town doctor in a setup with a publicly known mafia doctor is incredibly unlikely; it's a bunch of reasons that largely overlap.

do you think its not a reasonable assumption for the town to believe that if they have a gunsmith that at least one bad guy should have a gun?

If lacking any other information? If it's a normal gunsmith without an Informed and there's no public information about a mafia doctor? Sure! It's reasonable under normal circumstances to assume that with a town gunsmith, the scum have at least one member with a gun.

When given the information at your disposal, listing the exact total number of guns in the game and with the public information of at least one mafia doctor in the game? Not as much. Given the specific setup information, I'd say it's neither inherently reasonable nor unreasonable, that blindly assuming either way would be a mistake, that the best approach would be to use judgement augmenting reads with the call. If things make more sense with no gun then it's perfectly plausible for no scum gun; if things make more sense with one scum gun then it's perfectly plausible for one scum gun. It's a situational assumption given the information you were given.

Designers/Reviewers do not give information arbitrarily (in most cases)--usually when it is given it is given for good reason and gives significant insight into the special mechanics for that game, it's gimmick if it has one. And every piece of information compounds on itself, both in terms of actual information (public + Informed) and in terms of roles (flipped + trueclaimed). For instance, the synergy between the town roles in this game is something that a reviewer would expect a player to pick up on when the roles are claimed.

The synergy between rolecop + Neapolitan is relatively obvious.
The synergy between detective + rolecop is maybe not as obvious but still present. (Detective can find a killer and rolecop can check them if they claim vig for instance.)
The interactions between gunsmith and the other investigatives is well-known for how they build off of each other.
Plus, investigative-heavy setups which lack in protectives/killing are a thing that gets run often enough to not be entirely out of the blue. I've seen plenty of triple-investigative games where the town literally had a Neapolitan and Gunsmith and another powerful investigative, all at once, at the cost of no protective PRs. So a setup featuring heavy investigative roles which have guns isn't something that comes out of left field; there is precedence for their existence.

Also as an aside: setup reviewers as a whole are both moving away from more townsided setups AND trying to make setups revolve more around dayplay than nightplay. As a whole the NRG is trying to encourage solving by scumhunting during the day, rather than on solving a mechanical puzzle revolving around PRs and nightplay. That shift is slow and gradual but it IS happening, so the expectation is that setups shouldn't be easily solved from mechanical assumptions, but rather solved from dayplay.

[DkKoba]

yeah this game was 1000% solvable via dayplay lol

[DkKoba]

osuka was spewed scum upon my flip and anya could have been cased as TMIing me scum

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i already said that this game was relatively easy to win via dayplay and that the town wouldve won this running away if we had ignored all claims, all mech and treated this as a 10:3 mountainous

the very fact that the result was divergent from a 10:3 MT speaks to how ludicrous the setup is.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

when you create a setup where the town has to guess at incredibly unlikely things to have a chance of winning

the game is no longer town vs scum

it is town vs mod.

and if the nrg decides its fine to pass setups designed explicitly to screw towns over you will get towns refusing to even play the nightgame since every possible interaction could just be a nrg troll trap where the mods think its fun to loltroll the town.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

the fact that despite extremely strong dayplay on the townside, the entire town decided to stick with the mech assumptions explicitly because they believed the actual setup is outside the "troll range" of the NRG speaks to how absurd this setup is.

you may think you are being "clever" by designing a setup where the town gets hosed but you are really just reducing this game into one where the play of the players does not really matter at all.

[mastina]

when you create a setup where the town has to guess at incredibly unlikely things to have a chance of winning
the game is no longer town vs scum
it is town vs mod.

Sure!
But you're arguing that this setup had a need for the town to guess at incredibly unlikely things.

I am stating that, flatly, they didn't need to. Given the public information the town had at their disposal, I would argue that the town needing to make the right conclusions wasn't "incredibly unlikely"--it was something that in most cases, should've been easy to connect point A to point B to point C.

In a game with a mafia doctor publicly confirmed to exist and the public information from the Informed that there's four guns, it's not "incredibly unlikely" to guess that at least two town PRs have guns; it's literally mod-confirmed to be the case off of the info they have. With that, it's not incredibly unlikely to guess at least three town PRs have guns, given the nature of the PRs being claimed. While it might verge into potentially 'unlikely' territory to conclude all four are town, it is not imo

incredibly

unlikely when looking at what the roles actually

are

.

The reasonable conclusion to reach from the roles is either they are genuine or they are very very good scum fakeclaims. If your choices are "either genuine or very good scum fakeclaims", usually the way to determine which is to sort by dayplay. To use your judgement to differentiate between the two, taking reads into account.

Which is a feature, not a flaw. If you're meant to be judging roles by the play behind them by and large rather than automatically townbinning the roles...job well done?

This game's roles weren't designed for the town to think they were scum; this game's roles were designed for the town to not be able to automatically tell that they were town, for them to be able to critically evaluate it and make determinations on real vs good scum fakeclaim off of dayplay.

If the town can clearly tell all of their town PRs are town, that's bad game design. There SHOULD be a level of ambiguity within where almost any town PR

could

be a scum fakeclaim, with you needing to use your judgement to determine if they are real and sincere or if they are scum fakeclaiming their role.

Town PRs are meant to give the town a boost, augmenting their already existing tools--not hand the town the answer to the game on a silver platter, giving them the answer to the game outright of knowing exactly who is town.

The town's roles this game were designed to do exactly that. The town's roles gave them information about the number of guns in the game when it was public info that there was at least one mafia doctor; the town's roles had the potential to generate two guilties and multiple innocents; the town's roles even if not getting guilties/innocents would give them extra information, with built-in synergy, but without giving the town the answer. The town wasn't meant to know their roles were all inherently town; the town was meant to use dayplay enhanced by their roles' claimed information.

you may think you are being "clever" by designing a setup where the town gets hosed but you are really just reducing this game into one where the play of the players does not really matter at all.

What makes the town be hosed in this setup with their roles? Objectively, there shouldn't be anything. The town's roles were all designed to give them a skill-based advantage where when optimally used they could get two guilties and a bunch of innocents, but which even if not used optimally would still give them a boost in information, without being conftown.

Normal Review Group members fundamentally cannot anticipate every variable in a game--the town ignoring dayplay to focus on wrong mechanical assumptions, in a game where the fundamental design is based off of the assumption the town will focus on dayplay with mechanics taking a back seat to it, is simply put: not a variable we could have seen coming because it is incredibly playerlist dependent.

If this same game were run 100 times, the outcome of this game would come up probably a maximum of 1-5 out of those 100 runs, with 95-99 of the other runs not having this conclusion.

[clidd]

Well, it happens, gg.

[DkKoba]

Well, it happens, gg.

sorry, maybe we will win as same alignment someday