Open 811 - Lovers and Losers (New Game+) [Game Over]

[LlamaFluff]

counterpoint to llama - you were scum last game and you were able to deepwolf. what’s stopping you from doing it again this game?

I dont think my position was great last game. D1 was going to be scum pair or RM part... D2 the other. I was trying to figure out if I needed to bus or not to make it to endgame when everything got rerolled (was planning to take out RM since some of their wording on pregame was clumsy and made it sound like conversations were still happening), maybe was at 50% or a little better depending on what Tbone did spot. Is this also kind of a "good as scum so have to get rid of for safety" stance?

People underestimate how much a logical and calming presence just gets read as town. Always has worked, probably always will work to a certain extent.

Anyone have data on if Bambi is more likely to sheep as scum or town?

[Vex Vience]

last game basically everyone tr'd you. when i looked at the rolelist, i genuinely thought that i wouldn't be able to figure you out unless something major happened.
and yes, this is a good at scum, so we should elim for paranoia's sake. you're not a lover, and i know for a fact i can easily clear myself if i start to try, which may or may not happen just because of reroll like i said. but, assuming i do, i know i have to kill both of you to solve vts, because i genuinely don't feel like i can read either of you.
bambi, maybe, since her playstyle is closer to my natural playstyle, but that's a maybe.

[Bambi Jay]

I'm like a cat. it's based on my current mood whether I follow people or not.

[Vex Vience]

you as well did say we have one misstep in both lovers and vts, and i intent to use it if it would provide more information for us.

[LlamaFluff]

I'm like a cat. it's based on my current mood whether I follow people or not.

Its just what im trying to figure out... the "test" reaction votes like my Vex one have since coming back attracted just town reactions, but this is a very particular setup where it doesnt quite apply the same way that normals do. There is all the reason in the world for you to make that vote as town or scum, im actually a bit more interested in how Vex reads both of us because of it.

[LlamaFluff]

Also still have no idea how I was townread that much in the first game. Again was just being that logical/calming presence that for some reason works out so often if you also can words good (shameless if you can once everything is open go join Toastmasters, it actually really helps plug)

[LlamaFluff]

@Vex - Do you read me as less town that last game?

[Vex Vience]

wdym?

[LlamaFluff]

wdym?

Last game you said I was town when I was scum.

Now you are being nervous about me when I am town due to fear, but I dont know how you are actually reading me. Do you think im town again, or is your read different? Im trying to drill down into some stuff here and where you really stand on me, and by association Bambi (as to you one of us must be scum), is a bit important to all of it. I know you are paranoid, but also dont know what you actually think of me and for what reasons.

[LlamaFluff]

@Bambi - Is your vote more based on thinking Vex is scum or that I am town?

[Vex Vience]

i'm thinking you're town-ish, but i'm second-guessing myself because of last game.

[LlamaFluff]

i'm thinking you're town-ish, but i'm second-guessing myself because of last game.

So what is your read on Bambi voting you when I put pressure on him to vote you if they thought I was town?

[Bambi Jay]

@Bambi - Is your vote more based on thinking Vex is scum or that I am town?

Vex pairs better with the other guys. You'd pair with Rational I guess but we aren't aiming for the Pairs RN so I guess that's alright.

[LlamaFluff]

@Bambi - Is your vote more based on thinking Vex is scum or that I am town?

Vex pairs better with the other guys. You'd pair with Rational I guess but we aren't aiming for the Pairs RN so I guess that's alright.

So RM pair is scum its me
Any other pair its Vex?

You have any game where you were in a 1v1 regardless of alignment I can look at?

[Vex Vience]

if bambi's playstyle is what i think it is, i don't really care, since i know i'll be able to read them.

[Vex Vience]

i can't read you, which is why i want you dead first tbh

[Bingle]

you as well did say we have one misstep in both lovers and vts, and i intent to use it if it would provide more information for us.

Nipping this in the bud right now.
Mislimming a lover then a VT without hitting scum in between also loses us the game. Once we lim in a group, we absolutely have to catch the scum in that group before moving on.

That's why townhunting is a strong strategy this game. If we can hard identify a town player in a pool, we can afford to lim the rest of that pool.

Also, wrt which pool we lim in first, it really doesn't matter. The argument that limming a hydra risks losing more voices is hard countered by the fact that if those voices are going to be the lim, they probably aren't going to be listened to anyway.

[Bingle]

if bambi's playstyle is what i think it is, i don't really care, since i know i'll be able to read them.

70% you, 20% FL, 10% Pink Buddy.

[LlamaFluff]

i can't read you, which is why i want you dead first tbh

Lets say no choice. You go to bed with this exact current vote count. Wake up with enough votes to be eliminated but surprise you are awarded a vengeful shot, who eats it?

[Vex Vience]

you as well did say we have one misstep in both lovers and vts, and i intent to use it if it would provide more information for us.

Nipping this in the bud right now.
Mislimming a lover then a VT without hitting scum in between also loses us the game. Once we lim in a group, we absolutely have to catch the scum in that group before moving on.

That's why townhunting is a strong strategy this game. If we can hard identify a town player in a pool, we can afford to lim the rest of that pool.

Also, wrt which pool we lim in first, it really doesn't matter. The argument that limming a hydra risks losing more voices is hard countered by the fact that if those voices are going to be the lim, they probably aren't going to be listened to anyway.

did i ever say "let's elim a lover then a vt"? no. i said if eliming one would provide us more information about the game, then i will happily take it. i agree we need to elim in one group once we commit.

if bambi's playstyle is what i think it is, i don't really care, since i know i'll be able to read them.

70% you, 20% FL, 10% Pink Buddy.

yea, then i should be able to read bambi.

[LlamaFluff]

That's why townhunting is a strong strategy this game. If we can hard identify a town player in a pool, we can afford to lim the rest of that pool.

Okay. Your staking the game on a town pick (obviously excluding you) from each pool. Go.

[Vex Vience]

i can't read you, which is why i want you dead first tbh

Lets say no choice. You go to bed with this exact current vote count. Wake up with enough votes to be eliminated but surprise you are awarded a vengeful shot, who eats it?

there are three potential kills, with two different interpretations of the vengeful role:
- i die as soon as i kill someone
- i don't die, and i'm confirmed as town (wnaf vengeful)

if its the first, i re-read, and then shoot either you or bambi. it depends on how townie i feel bambi is.
if i feel bambi is town, you die. if not, she dies.
if it's the wnaf vengeful, where the elim doesn't actually go through, and i'm given a vengeful shot - kerset always dies. the fact i don't die confirms me as town, and i remove the pair i think is currently scum.

[Vex Vience]

also, explanation on kerest being killed: they and bingle are lovers, so it doesn't really matter who i kill from the two, and since kerest is higher on the playerlist, i defaulted to them.
additionally, i'm utterly convinced rm is town, so i basically have a 50/50 on shooting scumlovers

[Bambi Jay]

i can't read you, which is why i want you dead first tbh

That sounds more like you fear him more in miselim so you'll 1v1 me instead.

[LlamaFluff]

i can't read you, which is why i want you dead first tbh

Lets say no choice. You go to bed with this exact current vote count. Wake up with enough votes to be eliminated but surprise you are awarded a vengeful shot, who eats it?

there are three potential kills, with two different interpretations of the vengeful role:
- i die as soon as i kill someone
- i don't die, and i'm confirmed as town (wnaf vengeful)

if its the first, i re-read, and then shoot either you or bambi. it depends on how townie i feel bambi is.
if i feel bambi is town, you die. if not, she dies.
if it's the wnaf vengeful, where the elim doesn't actually go through, and i'm given a vengeful shot - kerset always dies. the fact i don't die confirms me as town, and i remove the pair i think is currently scum.

So am I right that in this exact instant you think I am more likely town but the paranoia is so bad that you would rather stake the game on me being scum than Bambi? Im not sure I have had this level of sway over people being scared about me than back in my golden era where if I was alive D3 that as a scumtell