Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[Lukewarm]

@norwee, do you currently think Bingle or Not_Maifia is more likely to be the scum in your neighborhood?

[Bingle]

(472) i have no idea how to read him, he's one of the people i'm unsure on rn so i'm willing to vote along with u VOTE: vanderscamp i like these points you made though, i didn't really think of it like that. that's whats making me comfortable to vote here

I'm pretty sure it's just Hopkirk/Norwee at this point, tbh, and I don't see my vote moving.

i don't really see it, i probably missed it but where is your last read on norwegianboyee? 403 i see you mentioning you see hopkirk with both, but i don't really see you do much to that..? like you responded to norwegianboyee, but it doesn't seem like you had a mind change in those posts..

The read on Norwee is recent. I've been solidly pushing Hopkirk for a while now and the only real content Norwee has had has been to shade that push (and literally everyone willing to give it the time of day) and jump on every possible cw.

Meanwhile, I posted about how Hopkirk has accused me of misrepping him by putting words in his mouth by putting words in my mouth, making shit up to shitpush Luke exactly after I started pushing him, and an incredibly political stance on Norwee. I even brought up that I didn't want to have it buried, and let's look at the people who have actually engaged with it?

But Norwee jumps on to GL's wagon without engaging with my push because "WE NEED CONTENT, BUT I DON'T WANT TO BE THE ONE TO MAKE IT BECAUSE READS!"

[Bingle]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

[Vanderscamp]

Okay, if we are all going to start town reading Marci, can we talk about how weird it is that Norwee would push her here?

Like he has the added benefit of having seen her play, so there is no "she uses emojis, so I can't trust her" - which is 100% something people have scumread her for lol

Do you think she's obviously different from last game?

Because that's the thing that would make it weird, I also think she sounds scummy so I don't mind it

Imo, she was a lot more active and asking more questions. I get the feeling that she feels a lot of pressure as scum to "not let her partner down", so tries a lot harder in that role. In our last game, she was TR by almost everyone pretty early in Day 1

Norwee had her as his #1 town read as of post 67, and he kept her as a town read even when he was sitting in the Ghost Chat. And post game said

Sorry everyone, my reads were awful this game. I usually am not that bad, but Marcistar's style is one that just didn't ping me as scummy at all... Well played to them.

But if Norwegian got totally fooled by her last game, why would it be weird that he is hesitant to townread her again this game?

[Vanderscamp]

can you give us a readslist Luke?

Looking at the 6p neighborhood

TR - Marci / Guilty Lion
TL -
Null - Vander / Hopkirk
SL - Dunn
SR -

Still trying to get a better feel on Vander and Hop before I try any kind of push on Dunn.

Really dislike the last line
You shouldn't need to get a better feel on anyone before pushing someone

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler:

Okay, if we are all going to start town reading Marci, can we talk about how weird it is that Norwee would push her here?

Like he has the added benefit of having seen her play, so there is no "she uses emojis, so I can't trust her" - which is 100% something people have scumread her for lol

Do you think she's obviously different from last game?

Because that's the thing that would make it weird, I also think she sounds scummy so I don't mind it

Imo, she was a lot more active and asking more questions. I get the feeling that she feels a lot of pressure as scum to "not let her partner down", so tries a lot harder in that role. In our last game, she was TR by almost everyone pretty early in Day 1

Norwee had her as his #1 town read as of post 67, and he kept her as a town read even when he was sitting in the Ghost Chat. And post game said

Sorry everyone, my reads were awful this game. I usually am not that bad, but Marcistar's style is one that just didn't ping me as scummy at all... Well played to them.

But if Norwegian got totally fooled by her last game, why would it be weird that he is hesitant to townread her again this game?

I am gonna answer this in a spoiler, because I feel like the conversation has moved past this and I don't wanna clog the thread.

Spoiler:

But he wasn't just "hesitant to townread her." He named her as the most likely solve, and voted her.

My point was that she feels so different this game then she did in the last game. Last game she was present, she was responding to people, she was asking everyone lots of questions. At the end of Day 1, I am pretty sure she had the 2nd highest post count. - This game, she seems less invested in keeping up.

So from my pov, especially after reading the Mafia chat, is that scum!Marcie feels a lot of pressure to not let her partner down.

This game feels drastically different from her scum game, so I do not understand people who should know about that difference, would be scum reading her here.

And if his understanding of her scum game is that her scum style "is one that just doesn't ping him as scummy at all." Then why did he not question half the lobby saying "yeah, she seems really scummy"

[Vanderscamp]

Re: the hopkirk/lukewarm case:

I think lukewarm's initial response was not great until page 18 where he stepped it up and responded pretty townily.
I like his confidence that he is right about this, especially stuff like the line about "I'm done arguing this and if I get voted out I get voted out"

I also don't agree with hopkirk that he has not been pushing the game forward this game.

[Vanderscamp]

I reread Vanderscamp, not feeling like voting there

I don't want to vote for Marci or Guiltylion either

So for me it's Luke or hopkirk in the 6

VOTE: Hopkirk

Do you have anything else?

[Vanderscamp]

442 is an interesting post.
I feel like it’s more likely to come from town tbh. But i haven’t liked their other "cases" recently on me/Hopkirk.
I’ll need to give this some more time. UNVOTE:

This is how I feel, I like Luke's latest defence of this stuff while disliking what he said previously

[Vanderscamp]

I reread Vanderscamp, not feeling like voting there

why the hell is everyone townreading Vanderscamp this game?? I really can't remember a single post or comment he's made that has made me feel like he's earnestly game solving. I'm going to re-ISO him again after I respond to the posts we've had but I'm also asking myself this: if town!Vander, why am I the only person who has even looked his direction? Who is scum in either pool who's keeping Vander on the table as a potential mis-elimination today?

I don't agree that everyone has been townreading me?...

[Vanderscamp]

I feel like it's pretty likely that if lukewarm joined this game to encourage Marci to step out of the newbie queue (which I have no reason at all to doubt) then he's probably going to be buddying up with her as any combination of alignments.

Was going to say it didn't feel like a S/S interaction from them before I remembered that isn't possible anyway

.

I'm mulling over this comment on reread... I feel it's less likely town would forget who is in which pool and which interactions can or can't be S/S. I've had my fair share of poorly thought out comments/takes this game, but certainly the entire game I've been

constantly

paying attention to interactions cross-pool and keeping in mind potential scum candidates of each pool. I'm skeptical town!Vanders wouldn't really be aware that Marci/Luke can't be scum together 300+ posts into the game.

VOTE: Vanderscamp

I am aware, which is why I mentioned it.
I would be okay with this reason if I had actually forgotten what the pools were and then corrected it in some other post, but this feels like an extremely bad reason to scumread me since I am doing what you're saying I didn't.
I independently read their interactions as not scum together, and then I thought about what the pools were and realized that that didn't matter anyway.

[Lukewarm]

Guys, I think we commented too much on Not_Mafia being more active in this game, so now he is lurking

I'm sorry Not_Mafia, you can be active. I support you.

[Dunnstral]

I reread Vanderscamp, not feeling like voting there

I don't want to vote for Marci or Guiltylion either

So for me it's Luke or hopkirk in the 6

VOTE: Hopkirk

Do you have anything else?

Yeah: I'm ready to proceed to an elimination

[Vanderscamp]

I feel like it's pretty likely that if lukewarm joined this game to encourage Marci to step out of the newbie queue (which I have no reason at all to doubt) then he's probably going to be buddying up with her as any combination of alignments.

Was going to say it didn't feel like a S/S interaction from them before I remembered that isn't possible anyway

.

I'm mulling over this comment on reread... I feel it's less likely town would forget who is in which pool and which interactions can or can't be S/S. I've had my fair share of poorly thought out comments/takes this game, but certainly the entire game I've been

constantly

paying attention to interactions cross-pool and keeping in mind potential scum candidates of each pool. I'm skeptical town!Vanders wouldn't really be aware that Marci/Luke can't be scum together 300+ posts into the game.

VOTE: Vanderscamp

is this the only point you have on him?

No.

I already called out that 147 combined with 150 looks like fake reasoning to me - he's giving reasons to scumread both N_M and Lukewarm but not paying any attention as to whether those scumreads made sense together.

I didn't feel like his vote on you had any conviction or intent to solve.

The strongest/most meaningful content he's posted has been about Bingle, his questionable reasoning about both the Dunn & Norway slots, but it's rather easy for me to imagine that content being either a) scum!Vanders jumping on a townie making illogical/reachy assertions without justifying why those assertions indicate

scum

alignment or b) scum!Vanders distancing/bussing a buddy!Bingle. He's also just holistically been pretty inactive this game, he hasn't bothered to fight harder against the thread consensus to eliminate in the 6p despite his strongest SR being Bingle, and he hasn't taken a lead or a stake in substantially building nor defusing any wagons.

Given that it's D1 and he's played pretty careful, I don't have any surefire scumtells to nail him on, but the overall profile of his posting and votes this game vibes very much to me like scum treading water and trying to let town eat itself up in the meantime.

This feels extremely disingenuous


I've responded to your case about 147 and 150 already, can you respond to what I said about it?
I independently read both n_m and lukewarm as scummy for different reasons. I marginally agree with your reasoning that they are less likely to be together, but I don't think it's impossible for them to be together, and I'm not going to not read something I think is scummy as scummy because someone else who I read as scummy is having an interaction with them that makes them less likely s/s. I would much rather read someone based on how I'm actually reading them than conditional reads of players I don't know the alignment of that may be wrong anyway. Do you disagree?

Re: bingle it is pretty obvious why the stuff I said about him is actively scummy rather than just null. From what people have said, Bingle is obvious a pretty veteran player and if he has obviously crap takes about posts, I'm not willing to give him the benefit of the doubt about and think that he is potentially just a bad townie who would not know any better since he clearly isn't.

It's also ridiculous to say that I haven't pushed harder against killing into the big pool, I have probably said more than any other player in this game about which pool is better to kill into

[Vanderscamp]

Ok, i'm on a keyboard finally.
So my first nuanced thought is that it would be weird for Bingle to put himself in the 3P hood as scum when he was put in it as town in the last game and saw how bad it went for Skitter. I feel like Bingle would see himself as a much better player than me or N_M so for him to put himself in there seems really bold. N_M however, might feasibly do it for the memes.
But whatever i think we should eliminate in the 6P hood. Because then we can win in day 1 just like the last time Divide and Conquered was hosted.

I still maintain that it's marginally better to kill into the small pool first, but more important is just to vote the person we think is most likely scum.

But it's imo definitely wrong to want to prefer killing into the big pool, we will win just as easily by killing the scummiest player in the big pool and being right on D4 as we will on D1.

[Vanderscamp]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

[Vanderscamp]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

[Vanderscamp]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

Why?

Because miskilling D1 almost always does not make the game easier than killing correctly.

I think the point you are trying to make is that killing into the big pool first, missing, and getting another NK in there makes solving that pool easier, but I don't think that is close to worth the value of not having to solve the small pool first.
The small pool scum is NOT someone we can just freely guarantee being able to kill if we kill aggressively into the big pool and do badly.

[Vanderscamp]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

Why?

Because miskilling D1 almost always does not make the game easier than killing correctly.

I think the point you are trying to make is that killing into the big pool first, missing, and getting another NK in there makes solving that pool easier, but I don't think that is close to worth the value of not having to solve the small pool first.
The small pool scum is NOT someone we can just freely guarantee being able to kill if we kill aggressively into the big pool and do badly.

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

So I looked back at the last game.

It is interesting that you site back that the math was done in the last game, without acknowledging that Bingle was the one that did the math, and that he was town that game, and that he also concluded that it was still better to shoot in the 6P pool.

I have been informed by a monkey that I should treat Bingle's mechanical talk as gospel, regardless of his alignment, but here I can clearly see that ConfirmedTown Bingle made the case that shooting from the 6P pool first is the better strategy.

IIRC Bingle did some initial math which was very wrong, I went back and corrected the math and we both agreed that the correct numbers were something along the lines of 41% town win rate vs 45% town win rate by killing into big pool first and little pool first respectively.
From a math standpoint it's definitely better to kill into the small pool first, bingle and some other people made some arguments about why killing into the big pool first was better that I don't agree with since I think they mostly make assumptions about things being good that are actually neutral.

I don't mind killing into the big pool first if the scummiest person in the game is there but I will advocate very strongly for not avoiding killing into the small pool today just because it is the small pool.

[Vanderscamp]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

Why?

Because miskilling D1 almost always does not make the game easier than killing correctly.

I think the point you are trying to make is that killing into the big pool first, missing, and getting another NK in there makes solving that pool easier, but I don't think that is close to worth the value of not having to solve the small pool first.
The small pool scum is NOT someone we can just freely guarantee being able to kill if we kill aggressively into the big pool and do badly.

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

So I looked back at the last game.

It is interesting that you site back that the math was done in the last game, without acknowledging that Bingle was the one that did the math, and that he was town that game, and that he also concluded that it was still better to shoot in the 6P pool.

I have been informed by a monkey that I should treat Bingle's mechanical talk as gospel, regardless of his alignment, but here I can clearly see that ConfirmedTown Bingle made the case that shooting from the 6P pool first is the better strategy.

IIRC Bingle did some initial math which was very wrong, I went back and corrected the math and we both agreed that the correct numbers were something along the lines of 41% town win rate vs 45% town win rate by killing into big pool first and little pool first respectively.
From a math standpoint it's definitely better to kill into the small pool first, bingle and some other people made some arguments about why killing into the big pool first was better that I don't agree with since I think they mostly make assumptions about things being good that are actually neutral.

I don't mind killing into the big pool first if the scummiest person in the game is there but I will advocate very strongly for not avoiding killing into the small pool today just because it is the small pool.

The reason I say that is because if we correctly eliminate in the 3 person pool today, the next 2 nightkills are going to be the other 2 in that pool

If we eliminate in the 6p pool today, and start from the 3p pool tomorrow, I think we have better odds, including if they take the 3p pool down to 2

The important thing is that if we lynch correctly into the 3p pool, we have an extra kill we can use and about a 56% chance of winning from there.
If we miskill into the big pool first and then start aiming for the small pool first we get three shots into essentially a pool of three and a pool of what will be either three or four, but needing to find two scum, which is definitely not better.
I can math it out, but hopefully it's clear?

[Vanderscamp]

I'm happy to keep spamming the thread about killing into the small pool not being a non-viable option, I like talking about this stuff, but given there were three votes on bingle for a while it didn't seem like the entire thread was actively averse to it.

[Vanderscamp]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Why would you hammer me if you're pretty sure it's hop/Norwegian?

[Vanderscamp]

I reread Vanderscamp, not feeling like voting there

I don't want to vote for Marci or Guiltylion either

So for me it's Luke or hopkirk in the 6

VOTE: Hopkirk

Do you have anything else?

Yeah: I'm ready to proceed to an elimination

Do you have anything alignment related?

[Vanderscamp]

Of the small pool I think Norwegian is towny and bingle and n_m are both scummy.

I strongly dislike bingle saying he's willing to hammer me, last game (where we were both town) he had a strong town read on me, I think GL's reasons on me here are decently worse than the cases made against me last game (with the exception of pooky's) and I don't believe he'd randomly be happy to hammer me here on the assumption that we're somehow going to kill a couple people that there is not a lot of strong consensus towards.

I would kill Dunn pretty happily in the big pool because of the complete lack of content, I read Marci as town from the meta about which pool she would be in despite reading her content as scummy.
I think I like lukewarm now, I'm null on hopkirk and I dislike GL pretty much exclusively because of his reasons for wanting to kill me.

[Lukewarm]

I think Vanderscamp is town.

I read through the thread for round 1 of this game, and he feels like he is approaching this game the exact same way. Like the way he thinks about it

feels

the same.

So people I am considering voting out from the 6p pool:

Dunnstral

Vanderscamp

GuiltyLion

Hopkirk

Lukewarm

marcistar

VOTE: Dunn

Not getting good vibes from him, don't like how little content he has put into the thread.

I still think that Hopkirk is pretty scummy, but Marci has me worried that maybe I am caught up on things I shouldn't be :/