Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[Bingle]

- Lukewarm posted a great point in our hood about how scum!Bingle would have hard defended both marcistar and Lukewarm slots away from potential elimination today and to what gain? If it's something like a Bingle-Dunn or Bingle-Vanderscamp team, that's playing fairly awkwardly as it's strictly increasing chance of autoloss. I was kinda waiting to see if Lukewarm would raise the same points in the thread, but he hasn't?

I was waiting to see if Bingle would bring it up himself / slip that he has heard that arguement from the 6P hood. Never saw it from him tho

Everyone in the 6P chat had already seen me say it, so did not feel the need to add it here. As an argument, it would be useful information for exactly 1 other townie, so seemed worth holding it back to see if anyone seemed aware of the neighborhood discussion.

When exactly did this happen in comparison to the main thread?

[NorwegianboyEE]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Daily reminder of how scummy this fucking post is.

I also still agree with this

Also, how does it make any sense for Bingle to argue in favour of eliminating some random person that has nothing to do with me/Hopkirk, and then they'll somehow believe it is going to make the others believe it to be more likely that me/Hopkirk is a team? Since when does "town" THINK this?

[Vanderscamp]

oh yeah, Jingle's alleged convinction is incredibly out of line with what's reasonable. i'm not super confident on Luke because this can easily be Scum!Bingle throwing shade at me/norway with the intent of letting a Luke wagon go through today then plan to shade me/norway from it. Scum!Bingle doesn't need to care about openwolfing when he's not at a realistic risk of us voting him on account of the setup/stated desires to vote in the 6p pool

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Would you agree to a vote on you given the same premise?

we all know we're voting in the 6p pool so this question is pointless

Ok, let's talk then about why we all know we're voting into the 6p pool.

Why is that?
Because the math that bingle and I worked out last game on which pool gives us better odds, assuming random killing, gives voting into the small pool first a pretty non-negligible 10% (as a ratio) winrate increase of killing into the big pool first.
No one is arguing with that math.
To make up for that, there has to be a good reason to vote into the big pool first, but i think a lot of the reasons given both this game and last game are things that don't change whether you actually vote into the big pool first or not.
The only one I remember recently was the thing someone said that was obviously wrong about our odds of winning being smaller with a scum flip in the small pool vs a miskill in the big pool.
Additionally I think there is some real value in guaranteeing a scum flip before losing, which killing into the small pool first guarantees but the big pool first does not.

[Vanderscamp]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Would you agree to a vote on you given the same premise?

Yes.

Okay. Here is what I am thinking. Bingle is (from what I can tell from other games) an extremely good scum hunter. Like multiple people in other games looking at his scum reads like they are gospel. And here, he is either scum, or he is 100% convinced he has found the scum.

I am no longer willing to consider any vote outside of [Norwee, Hopkirk, Bingle], and if we vote Bingle and he is town, then we immediately follow through on his Hopkirk read.

No, because I'm not going to blindly sheep someone's read just because they're a good player.

I don't mind killing hopkirk, especially if bingle flips town, but I think if bingle is town n_m is much more likely to be scum than Norwegian, I'm strongly against sheeping that one just for the sake of it.

[Vanderscamp]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Would you agree to a vote on you given the same premise?

Yes.

Okay. Here is what I am thinking. Bingle is (from what I can tell from other games) an extremely good scum hunter. Like multiple people in other games looking at his scum reads like they are gospel. And here, he is either scum, or he is 100% convinced he has found the scum.

I am no longer willing to consider any vote outside of [Norwee, Hopkirk, Bingle], and if we vote Bingle and he is town, then we immediately follow through on his Hopkirk read.

This is also a very scummy take

[Vanderscamp]

Here are a few things I want to point out about Hopkirk

Hopkirk accused Bingle of chainsaw defending me, when I don't think he could have genuinely thought that.

Bingle has been pushing on Hopkirk for a while, and Hopkirk knows that.
Hopkirk interacted with Bingle's read on him in posts 301 302 307 308 and 325. So he knew Bingle was pushing on him, even called it a shitpush

Then hopkirk made a case against me starting at post 372.

Then Hopkirk accused Bingle of chainsaw defending me in 415.


Also, this feels wrong too

Spoiler:

also full disclosure i uh... asked whether you thought you were playing differently before looking back through your games. it's a pretty fun question to ask people

^ 'want it more'/level of effort they'll put in as an alignment. i'm guessing you'll give it a 0/10 if you do a slang review here too

lukewarm seems really really different to all of his other games. what's up with that luke?

Because when he asked me if I thought I was playing differently, he did not just ask. He accused me of playing really really differently, then doubled down with a case. To then say that that came without ever looking back over my games seems wrong.


But again. Does anyone think that Hopkirk and Bingle could be TvT? Because I don't. Like, one of them has to be scum imo. So I feel like everyone should switch their vote to one of them.

Why do you think they can't be T vs T?
I don't think they are but I don't see why it's impossible either.

[Vanderscamp]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Daily reminder of how scummy this fucking post is.

I also still agree with this

Also, how does it make any sense for Bingle to argue in favour of eliminating some random person that has nothing to do with me/Hopkirk, and then they'll somehow believe it is going to make the others believe it to be more likely that me/Hopkirk is a team? Since when does "town" THINK this?

Yep, it doesn't

I'm on board

[Hopkirk]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Would you agree to a vote on you given the same premise?

Yes.

Okay. Here is what I am thinking. Bingle is (from what I can tell from other games) an extremely good scum hunter. Like multiple people in other games looking at his scum reads like they are gospel. And here, he is either scum, or he is 100% convinced he has found the scum.

I am no longer willing to consider any vote outside of [Norwee, Hopkirk, Bingle], and if we vote Bingle and he is town, then we immediately follow through on his Hopkirk read.

so Norway is your top scumread currently (with me presumably)
your last mentions of NM outside of him being inactive were to say he was your top SR (without him posting since i think)
you'd be willing to vote Bingle (and this is phrased in a way that scum would say to chain mislims)

i don't understand this take and i'm reading it as though you're really hedging the spread here. do you think this is unfair?
can you talk some more about your thoughts on each person in the 3p pool here? is Bingle still a 'Townread because you scumread the other two' and is NM now a townread?

[Hopkirk]

Bingle/Luke
Luke/Notmafia
Bingle/Dunn
Vanders/Notmafia
Dunn/Notmafia

that's what i want to look at associatives between later

[Not_Mafia]

I'm town

[Hopkirk]

I have read up but it is late and I'm tired and I need to sleep on things before really diving back into this game, I'll be around tomorrow

my current laying in bed hot takes:

- Lukewarm posted a great point in our hood about how scum!Bingle would have hard defended both marcistar and Lukewarm slots away from potential elimination today and to what gain? If it's something like a Bingle-Dunn or Bingle-Vanderscamp team, that's playing fairly awkwardly as it's strictly increasing chance of autoloss. I was kinda waiting to see if Lukewarm would raise the same points in the thread, but he hasn't?

- Overall I do find Bingle scummiest in the 3p hood in a vacuum but

I'm struggling to see winning partner candidates

due to the above ^. This is one of the matters I intend to sleep on. If you're in this game and scumreading Bingle but townreading Lukewarm/marcistar I need help seeing why Bingle is playing the way he's playing - who is his partner and how do they win after we eliminate a town!Hopkirk?

- Vander's reply to me is alright, I guess. I feel a bit more town vibes from him now that he's actually playing, I still disagree with a few of points, should probably cede a few others

- I thiiiiink I agree Bingle/Hopkirk really doesn't feel TvT, eliminating either way there is likely a good call for D1. I do intend to sleep on this and look at all the Bingle/Hopkirk posts in closer detail so no flashwagons tonight plz

@GL- why do you see reasons that Bingle wouldn't be aligned with Dunn

[Hopkirk]

scum!bingle lowers the pool to enough for a POE win here i think so if you can hard towntell that would be great Not_mafia

[Hopkirk]

my brain is sitting here telling me to look at the Vand/NM scumteam a lot more heavily so if you can give me less work then that would be great

[Lukewarm]

- Lukewarm posted a great point in our hood about how scum!Bingle would have hard defended both marcistar and Lukewarm slots away from potential elimination today and to what gain? If it's something like a Bingle-Dunn or Bingle-Vanderscamp team, that's playing fairly awkwardly as it's strictly increasing chance of autoloss. I was kinda waiting to see if Lukewarm would raise the same points in the thread, but he hasn't?

I was waiting to see if Bingle would bring it up himself / slip that he has heard that arguement from the 6P hood. Never saw it from him tho

Everyone in the 6P chat had already seen me say it, so did not feel the need to add it here. As an argument, it would be useful information for exactly 1 other townie, so seemed worth holding it back to see if anyone seemed aware of the neighborhood discussion.

When exactly did this happen in comparison to the main thread?

Fri May 14, 2021 7:21 pm

So right after I made 442

[Hopkirk]

Current takes from me and my alts
Hopkirk- i want to keep pushing bingle as much as because he's annoying me because as scumreads
Sarah- so like... scum don't shitpush this hard in practice so you're wrong on Bingle!scum which makes NM much more susssss... plus like vanders is obvscum lol. you blind or something
(real name redacted)- I'm not really sure. I'm town on Norway/Marc and Vanders is definitely pinging me right now. I want to look more at him. A lot of his takes feel weird right now.
Hoppy - Bingle is a big meanie but probably isn't scum unless small pool. ugh i really need to solve dunn's alignment to solve this
Hoctic with a simulated hectic - Norway is town, remember what i told you about his WIM
Hipkork - lOl ReAdS, sToP tRyHaRdInG nOoB!

[Lukewarm]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Would you agree to a vote on you given the same premise?

Yes.

Okay. Here is what I am thinking. Bingle is (from what I can tell from other games) an extremely good scum hunter. Like multiple people in other games looking at his scum reads like they are gospel. And here, he is either scum, or he is 100% convinced he has found the scum.

I am no longer willing to consider any vote outside of [Norwee, Hopkirk, Bingle], and if we vote Bingle and he is town, then we immediately follow through on his Hopkirk read.

This is also a very scummy take

Basically, I think Hopkirk is scum.

But Marci told me that Bingle might be tricking me in to thinking that, so there is that worry in the back of my mind.


So I think Hopkirk/Bingle are the most likely 2 people to contain a member of the scum team, AND I don't think there is anyone else in the thread in this thread that I think would give us more info on a Miselim

I am literally stating "I want us to vote my top scum read, BUT if people insist we vote Bingle, and he flips town, I want to commit to voting my top scum read tomorrow."

[Lukewarm]

Currently GuiltyLion, Marci, and Hopkirk are all off of the Hopkirk and the Bingle wagons.

So to each of you, do you think Hopkirk and Bingle are TvT?

Do you think someone else would be a better Day 1 elim?

What makes you think they are scummier then hopkirk/Bingle?

If you are wrong, and it is a minelim, do you think it would give us more information then a flip on Hop or Bingle, and if so why?

[NorwegianboyEE]

What’s with that avatar, are you an Ceejay alt Lukewarm?

[Lukewarm]

What’s with that avatar, are you an Ceejay alt Lukewarm?

No? Whats with your avatar?

Mine is a character from a video game

[Hopkirk]

i'm at most 50% on Bingle scum

[Hopkirk]

it's probably like 50-35-15

[Hopkirk]

if Bingle is town then the fact 3-4 people want to set up multiple votes is pretty concerning which is part of why i was looking at vanders more

[NorwegianboyEE]

What’s with that avatar, are you an Ceejay alt Lukewarm?

No? Whats with your avatar?

Mine is a character from a video game

I know, it's just that an user named Ceejayvinoya used the exact same character as an avatar. But you're probably not related, i'm just being annoyingly nostalgic.

My avatar is one of the heroines of an visual novel called Renai x Royale.

[Lukewarm]

What’s with that avatar, are you an Ceejay alt Lukewarm?

No? Whats with your avatar?

Mine is a character from a video game

I know, it's just that an user named Ceejayvinoya used the exact same character as an avatar. But you're probably not related, i'm just being annoyingly nostalgic.

My avatar is one of the heroines of an visual novel called Renai x Royale.

No relation to ceejay, just love the character. One of the few video game character stories that legitimately made me cry while playing the game T-T

[SirCakez]

bump