Mini 2206 - Deja Vu: Perpetual MELO IV - END!

[Iverson]

I would not even advise sticking around for questions because at most one of these posters is town and the others are scum taking advantage of you and your current state. I am not terribly worried about getting in DC's way even if he is town here.

I feel strongly enough about stopping this that I broke my rule about not posting, but this will be my final time for the day.

[Disaster Cartel]

I am not terribly worried about getting in DC's way even if he is town here.

okay but when u come back next time can u explain what u mean here

[Infinity 324]

@DC In the you-town mom-scum world from cakez's PoV, I was the scum. I was exaggerating when I made that post, but the gist of it is that cakez should expect scum to have strong opinions about the elim only if one is scum and one is town. If either skitt or I is scum from cakez's PoV, then that heavily implies mom-scum/you town or vice versa.

[Disaster Cartel]

I can't see a viable third partner for DC/mom

okay but you also have posts like this which make it sound a lot like that that's not you just referring to how you think cakez should be seeing the game, but that it's also your perspective that only one of me/mom is scum

and then there's also your complete flipflop on skitt from skitt!town to skitt!scum for pushing mom and defending me from being limmed yesterday only to... completely jettison your (VFT, DC) theory from yesterday and to go so far as to say you'd vote yourself if that's what skitt wants

like that doesn't make any sense to me as a progression

[Infinity 324]

Prism I'm probably going to be in a similar mental state for the rest of the game, but I'll stop posting for a while.

[notscience]

For the record my posting was not to push Infinity

Part of why I feel like she feels so overwhelmed regardless of alignment is noones done shit to try and kill anyone but her today and yeah we just opened but all anyone’s done re me is mild sus

A case would help

[Infinity 324]

Sorry for making the game more unpleasant

[Infinity 324]

I can't see a viable third partner for DC/mom

okay but you also have posts like this which make it sound a lot like that that's not you just referring to how you think cakez should be seeing the game, but that it's also your perspective that only one of me/mom is scum

and then there's also your complete flipflop on skitt from skitt!town to skitt!scum for pushing mom and defending me from being limmed yesterday only to... completely jettison your (VFT, DC) theory from yesterday and to go so far as to say you'd vote yourself if that's what skitt wants

like that doesn't make any sense to me as a progression

The way I make sense of the game in the late game is a very team-focused perspective. The way I saw it, yesterday the most likely possibilities were:

1. 3 scum in {notsci, bork, you, VFT}, most likely you, bork, VFT
2. You/mom/x
3. Many other possibilities could go here and I wasn't sure which was most likely. I was hoping someone else would propose a different solve, but I couldn't see one. However, all these possibilities combined were probably more likely than #2.

For obvious reasons mom flipping scum made #1 impossible and #2 more likely. I still can't think of a third option that makes a lot of sense (still open to possibilities here). To me, skitt is basically confirmed town because strongarming a bus when mom was not getting limmed otherwise seems insane to me. It's more likely if you're also scum, yes, but it's still unlikely. I also thought your interactions with lilith early on were unlikely to be scum theater, which I considered yesterday but it wasn't enough to outweigh my other evidence. Now it is.

For the record my posting was not to push Infinity

Part of why I feel like she feels so overwhelmed regardless of alignment is noones done shit to try and kill anyone but her today and yeah we just opened but all anyone’s done re me is mild sus

A case would help

That's part of it, yes, but a bigger part is that you're the biggest other option and I don't actually believe you're scum atm. A convincing case on you could help, sure, but I don't believe you've played like scum this game even if you are. My heart just isn't in pushing you, and going against consensus to push someone else when I feel like I'm so likely to be wrong again is not really something I'm interested in doing right now. Another part of it is that I can't argue against people scumreading me for consistently pushing town over scum, and being pushed for that when I'm already so upset with myself over it is pretty unpleasant. Obviously that's kinda just part of the game but it's certainly not my favorite part.

[notscience]

Can you lay out an in depth explanation of why skitter and menas interactions aren’t what you expected? It might help people see what you see.

It would also beg the question why would skitter stick her neck out to save one scum partner by bussing the other

[Infinity 324]

VOTE: DC I don't really forsee myself voting elsewhere today unless I'm forced to.

[notscience]

Look I’ve got a really busy day tomorrow but if you’re town, we need to figure out who the fu k is scum because it’s not us. You have a lot of different things pointing your direction, and I’m still leaning scum but I’m willing to help hash stuff out snd be your sound board. But I need you to help me help you.

[Infinity 324]

It would also beg the question why would skitter stick her neck out to save one scum partner by bussing the other

To be very clear, I don't believe this is what happened. I'm pretty sure skitter is town here. The question is mostly how skitter sorted mena wrong, and I don't have a good answer besides "skitter is human".

[Infinity 324]

I can quote some of skitt/mena's interactions, but it comes down to very little direct engagement compared to what I expect from them. This was definitely not the main reason I suspected they were partners (low activity from mena helps explain it) but it was a small contributing factor.

[notscience]

I’ve got to head to bed I have finals in the morning snd work at night.

But please, if you’re town, try to show me your thought process.

Ninja
Interesting. I’m not super up to date with their history so I don’t know all that back story but I really don’t buy the all of the original townbloc is town angle

It’s just so crazy to me

Ninja- if you can show some examples from here and from there to highlight that would be ideal.

Bed now.

[Infinity 324]

I looked back at mena/skitt interactions briefly, and there's not much to quote because it's more what isn't there than what is there. The mena/skitt interactions in PyP were the type of stuff to make me townlock both of them and not look back.

[Infinity 324]

A lot of that is probably because they haven't been SRing each other, but I feel like from mena's side he hasn't put in as much effort trying to sort skitt as I'd expect.

This isn't even the towniest part of the interactions from PyP but I don't feel like finding the rest atm, lmk if you need more.

Spoiler:

You're vote was icky, as was you loldropping infinity to vote dgb

why

Because it looked like you dropped something you actually believed in to vote someone who was posting badly (but not necessarily scummily) at a time when the wagon on dgb was not set yet, and your vote was the tipping point so to speak for that wagon, and made it much more likely to go through

I really dont like the drop off of infinity

You're vote was icky, as was you loldropping infinity to vote dgb

why

Because it looked like you dropped something you actually believed in to vote someone who was posting badly (but not necessarily scummily) at a time when the wagon on dgb was not set yet, and your vote was the tipping point so to speak for that wagon, and made it much more likely to go through

I really dont like the drop off of infinity

but this makes very little sense for scum!me to do unless you think I was lolbussing infinity from the moment I entered and dropped off to save him

like why was it a priority for scum!me to see DGB go through > infinity

and if your answer is "because she's a strong town player" y-es, but she didn't really have any play in this lobby (so not much to fear for scum!me) and you know very well that I normally setup to endgame as scum rather than play sacrificial -- if I was desperate to get her gone, why wouldn't I get a team-mate to make the bad vote switch to see her through?

I think your focus on my DGB vote is v weird

Well i think your vote was weird (and bad, and scummy), so

I basically think town!you would have tried to make infinity more viable, while scum!you saw an easy lolvote on someone imploding and took it

I think your focus on my DGB vote is v weird

Well i think your vote was weird (and bad, and scummy), so

I basically think town!you would have tried to make infinity more viable, while scum!you saw an easy lolvote on someone imploding and took it

you've played with scum!me, and I'm really struggling to see you actually believing this and it's making me think you're scum

you know very well that if there's one characteristic of my game *in general* it's a good awareness of how I'm perceived in thread, and that I resist going for the easy LHF consistently because I know it will look bad later

if you were making the argument that I jumped off to WIFOM ("ahh, I'd never do this as scum my game is too good I wouldn't be so obvious!") then I'd at least think that this was a genuine approach

I really don't think that town!you thinks that I care enough about eliminating DGB > infinity to decide to look worse in thread to achieve that, unless, again, you think I was lolbussing infinity from the moment I entered the game

Also there’s one player here who’s like, intensely scummy and hasn’t been pressured at all lmao

I would prefer them to DGB but I can compromise with doing DGBif we can’t get the votes there in time

"I say notes

Here’s a readslist

skitt (obligatory TR)
S_S — strong town
PP, dave, hoopla — town
petapan, uncrowned — town lean/town with reservations
Pine — true neutral
DGB, dunn, TGP — nullscum
JV — scumlean
lil — scum
Infinity — obvscum

Update:

Dave looking a little worse for sheeping onto DGB, unless DGB is, in fact, scum

DGB looking fucking awful for the lilith push but skitt’s right that it could totally be bussing.

If both of DGB and lil are town then skitter is probably scum with infinity

S_S could be scum with lilith maybe

Uncrowned is notably townier than I had him before

Hoopla still town and idk if I get the wagon there

JV maybe is town actually? Idk. I probably shouldn’t be reading alignment too hard from this, but his apology to uncrowned specifically for not playing harder seems less likely to come from scum while not under pressure

Mostly I just want a flip, DGB or infinity would both be fine

JV is actually surprisingly high posting for saying he’s disengaged, idk if that says anything AI but it pings me as interesting to say the least"

Hmmm you are actually being consistent in a way that's kinda unlikely to come from scum imo

I really don't think that town!you thinks that I care enough about eliminating DGB > infinity to decide to look worse in thread to achieve that, unless, again, you think I was lolbussing infinity from the moment I entered the game

Honestly, i dont think that scum!you cares so much about dgb in particular so much as you saw the oppurtunitu for an easy vote

However, somewhere uppage you said something like 'i've been thinking about voting out dgb all along', which i just verified. You do have a consistent thought process on dgb. And you calling back to that in the moment rn is +town, as it indicates this thought is something you've truly been believing for a while, and it's something that you immediately thought of to help your case (i.e. vs scum who was paying lip service to it, and would have had ro have scoped dgb as a likely person to be voted out upon repping into the game to consistently show that process from.the beginning and end up where you did yesterday)

So i'm gonna mull this over and UNVOTE:

I see ur vote on me but i gotta get ready for work, so to be continuee

Aside mena do u try to kill town!me last night, was pondering that and it's kinda relevant to my read

I haven't really thought about it

probably not? not for gameplay reasons but just because I joined to play with you so I think I'd take my chances on leaving you alive and trying to fool you

[Infinity 324]

This is not meant to convince anyone that DC is scum here, it's mostly just to show my thought process.

[Infinity 324]

T -> S

Prism, VFT, cakez, notsci, (big gap) DC

I'm very aware of the irony of trying to argue that I'm right and skitter is wrong after d3, but if I wasn't doing that I'm not sure if I could make a post that would qualify as scumhunting. I shouldn't give up just because I was wrong a few times, and I'm sorry I tried to do so.

[Infinity 324]

Someone tell me a possible scum motivation for notsci trying to pocket me here, I don't see it.

[Infinity 324]

Fmpov it looks tough for notsci to convince me to vote ex. cakez here, but maybe that's because I'm not aware enough of how I come off.

Top 3 of my T -> S list are very interchangeable. Specifically, those 3 are in order of most to least likely to surprise me as scum, so maybe scum!prism played d3 in a way that I really didn't expect because I just don't know his scumgame well enough. Really doubt that though.

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 4-3

-- Abduzeedo

Infinity 324

(1): Disaster Cartel

Disaster Cartel

(1): Infinity 324

Not Voting

(4): SirCakez, notscience, Venus Fly Trap, Iverson

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate.

Deadline: May 30, Noon US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2021-05-30 09:00:00)

Mod Notes:

- skitter30 head of Venus Fly Trap is v/la until May 18
-

[Disaster Cartel]

I can't see a viable third partner for DC/mom

okay but you also have posts like this which make it sound a lot like that that's not you just referring to how you think cakez should be seeing the game, but that it's also your perspective that only one of me/mom is scum

and then there's also your complete flipflop on skitt from skitt!town to skitt!scum for pushing mom and defending me from being limmed yesterday only to... completely jettison your (VFT, DC) theory from yesterday and to go so far as to say you'd vote yourself if that's what skitt wants

like that doesn't make any sense to me as a progression

The way I make sense of the game in the late game is a very team-focused perspective. The way I saw it, yesterday the most likely possibilities were:

1. 1 3 scum in {notsci, bork, you, VFT}, most likely you, bork, VFT
2. 2 You/mom/x
3. 3 Many other possibilities could go here and I wasn't sure which was most likely. I was hoping someone else would propose a different solve, but I couldn't see one. However, all these possibilities combined were probably more likely than #2.

For obvious reasons mom flipping scum made #1 impossible and #2 more likely. I still can't think of a third option that makes a lot of sense (still open to possibilities here). To me, skitt is basically confirmed town because strongarming a bus when mom was not getting limmed otherwise seems insane to me. It's more likely if you're also scum, yes, but it's still unlikely. 4 I also thought your interactions with lilith early on were unlikely to be scum theater, which I considered yesterday but it wasn't enough to outweigh my other evidence. Now it is.

For the record my posting was not to push Infinity

Part of why I feel like she feels so overwhelmed regardless of alignment is noones done shit to try and kill anyone but her today and yeah we just opened but all anyone’s done re me is mild sus

A case would help

That's part of it, yes, but a bigger part is that you're the biggest other option and I don't actually believe you're scum atm. A convincing case on you could help, sure, but I don't believe you've played like scum this game even if you are. 5 My heart just isn't in pushing you, and 6 going against consensus to push someone else when I feel like I'm so likely to be wrong again is not really something I'm interested in doing right now. Another part of it is that I can't argue against people scumreading me for consistently pushing town over scum, and 7 being pushed for that when I'm already so upset with myself over it is pretty unpleasant. Obviously that's kinda just part of the game but it's certainly not my favorite part.

(1) okay, why? this solve just seems so collectively off and doesn't really fit with the gamestate yesterday at all. not to mention, from what I can see you spent far more time trying to undercut skitter than trying to focus on bork, and I think the simplest explanation for that is that bork was amenable to voting me and skitt very clearly wasn't going to. I think you wanted to win yesterday, and the simplest way to do that was to try to undermine my key supporter and disregard... basically anything else

(2) which leads me into this -- I've cited two posts of yours above from yesterday where you said that you didn't think mom/me were teamed together because of the way the day unfolded. if this was a genuine thought process, I don't think you come in today and after briefly AtEing and voting notsci, switching back to me bc you think I'm the easiest miselim. basically the only person who really TRs me is skitt and bork kinda did. so from scum!you perspective pushing me makes a lot of sense, but from town!you perspective you'd have to be totally disregarding your process from yesterday which doesn't follow because

(3) there's no real reason you provide why if yesterday "all these possibilities were more likely than #2" things are now different. again, I think if you're town you try to reevaluate given that you'd have been consistently wrong throughout the game. instead, you're trying to have your cake and eat it too by going "oh man my reads have been really bad whoopsie... but btw it *is* still mena, and oh, don't worry about the fact that I was trying to push him yesterday vs the confscum flip we have on mom". it's like you're not actually trying to generate any possibilities for your supposed scenario #3, you're just trying to bend things back around to me being scum

(4) this also just... doesn't really follow? how has the likelihood of my doing scum theatre different today vs yesterday?

(5) this feels like you're trying to walk back on notsci bc you don't think he's the most likely slot you can wagon today, and because you think he's less of a threat at this point than I am. when notsci entered he was saying "it's me or infinity" and you were perfectly happy to go after him. now he's shown like any doubt you're trying to bring him on board with you and switching your target back to me, despite this not being consistent with your supposed earlier thought processes

(6) but you just said earlier that you think one of your biggest mistakes this game was NOT going against consensus earlier in the game. why is this different now? you were making an issue of how going with consensus has led to us to here and that you wish you hadn't, only now you're switching back to "well, guess I'd better go with consensus bc I don't wanna be wrong again"

(7) this is just more AtE in the exact same vein of "oh no we're so lost I'll vote myself if skitt wants me to :sad face:" which, exactly as I said, you had no intention of ever doing

[Disaster Cartel]

It would also beg the question why would skitter stick her neck out to save one scum partner by bussing the other

To be very clear, I don't believe this is what happened. I'm pretty sure skitter is town here. The question is mostly how skitter sorted mena wrong, and I don't have a good answer besides "skitter is human".

this feels a lot like you realised that your approach of trying to lump us together yesterday didn't work and so you're switching tack to trying to just undermine skitt (the only person other than me to have hard pushed scum, I might add) instead of trying to actually sell us as a team

I can quote some of skitt/mena's interactions, but it comes down to very little direct engagement compared to what I expect from them. This was definitely not the main reason I suspected they were partners (low activity from mena helps explain it) but it was a small contributing factor.

only there's a very large difference here which is that skitt is in a hydra, something you've been totally neglecting as part of this. I don't *need* to sort skitter head if she's paired with someone else who I have a very good read rate on, and lili is someone who after reading her wrong in our first couple of games, I'm p sure I've read correctly in every game we've had since. so no, I haven't had as much direct engagement or paranoia about skitt as normal bc since lili got pissed off me on D1 I've been pretty certain that she's town because I don't think she chooses to actively guilt me like that over getting pissed off with her as scum. if she did then she's more ruthless than I had her pegged for, but I really doubt that

[Disaster Cartel]

This is not meant to convince anyone that DC is scum here, it's mostly just to show my thought process.

she said, trying to convince everyone DC was scum

[Disaster Cartel]

maybe notsci is scum idk