Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[Hopkirk]

UNVOTE: Vanders
Maybe I'll reread before voting

[Vanderscamp]

I'm interested to know why you voted in the first place

[Hopkirk]

nothing especially strong
- Timing of Bingle's shitpush coming when you were wagoned
- Willingness to vote any of (GL/Hop/Dunn) - essentially everyone except Marc (who nobody seems to SR) or Luke (you were more sus of them before Bingle hard pocketed them, so again a timing thing with Bingle)
- Bingle's weird perspective on you mitigating your preference against bussing because it would have been premeditated to give you towncred on a Bingle scum!flip (but after looking back i don't think this initial perspective holds up well)

i've changed my mind though

Dunn moved towards the better end because of what he said. It's super overt for both of them to push me when he knows I'm going to react to being pushed. i can still see it though

VOTE: GuiltyLion

[Dunnstral]

I'm not reading the neighbourhood chat, sorry.

I mean, at this point it's pretty much the entire alive game in there

[Dunnstral]

Luke, can you go over why Bingle being scum makes Marci more likely?

[GuiltyLion]

A) I don't think the bingle kill would have happened without me.
I was continually calling out the stuff he was saying that made no sense, and I was essentially the only person who was defending killing into the 3p pool, I was speaking up to argue that killing there is not a bad idea when people were suggesting it was. Not possible for you to know since you've never played with me but I generally avoid bussing, I've commented on this on other games on this site.

Ok, but you understand that the nature of this setup encourages the 6p scum to look as good as possible on the 3p scum's flip, correct? If I were scum I'd certainly be pushing my buddy to make myself look town on his/her flip, especially once it was clear they were getting suspicion.

Can you also link me to those comments?

B) I thought they were both fairly scummy and iirc didn't feel super strongly about either. When I thought bingle became more scummy I voted him. If your reasoning was that the vote was toothless, why were you talking about the different pools and which of them I was voting into?

Because from where I'm sitting:
- You made an argument about why eliminating in the 3p should not be disregarded and if anything was actually slightly better odds to hit scum
- You gave plenty of reasons for suspecting Bingle and had nEE down as a townread
- You instead voted in the 6p for reasons I saw as comparatively much weaker, which seems incongruent with both of the above

C) I don't care if scum posts there or not, there's no reason to post anything of value in that hood that we can't post in the thread instead.

My point is that town should be scumhunting in both threads, and you ignoring me in the hood overnight feels more likely to be scum ignoring conflict/posting until they have to, rather than town just completely ignoring game relevant content.

[GuiltyLion]

- Bingle's weird perspective on you mitigating your preference against bussing because it would have been premeditated to give you towncred on a Bingle scum!flip (but after looking back i don't think this initial perspective holds up well)

Can you explain to me why you don't think it holds up well? I don't really see any other compelling scum candidates and I think the entirety of Vanders' ISO is scummy, I don't want to be ruling him out as scum on the basis of a singular comment from flipped scum, especially since if they

are

teamed then both of them were in trouble at that point in the game.

I'm trying not to get frustrated with your vote on me, if you assume I were to flip town today would you revisit Vander tomorrow?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm interested to know why you voted in the first place

Do you think Hopkirk is scum after yesterday? Otherwise this is a completely useless question.

[GuiltyLion]

actually I guess 732's a bit unfair to you if I'm being honest, strike that one. but the rest of my points all stand

[GuiltyLion]

To reiterate some other townreads:

- Hopkirk is as close to locktown as it can possibly get, he was in real danger of being eliminated yesterday largely due to Bingle pushing him. I can't see that as a galaxy brain bus gambit, the threat of auto loss was too significant.

- I don't think scum!Bingle puts Marci in the 6p and expects her to solo carry the game, and I think if that

was

the team she would have tried much harder to look good on Bingle flip. I've also townread her tone and content the entire game. I'm confident putting her out of the pool barring a F3 scenario.

- Dunn is maybe in range of scumplay, but I think Bingle gave a real awkward townread on him early and I also stand by my thought that Dunn would have manipulated the game better on a D1 Bingle scumflip. He feels too detached and agenda-less to be trying to win a scumgame.

- Luke is the weakest of these townreads and likely where I'd look hardest in F3 but I believe he didn't know what Bingle's flip was going to be in twilight yesterday, his level of effort/involvement has been far more involved/sustained which would be incredibly taxing if he were scum, and I see his interactions with Bingle as more pocket-y than theater-y. Standing by his approach yesterday even after we railed on him for it also reads as obstinate town to me.

Which leaves Vander

[marcistar]

Marci, what are you thinking rn?

i was thinking vanderscamp but now im getting so so confused

[GuiltyLion]

marci, do you disagree with any of my reasons for townreading those 4 players above?

I get why I might be suspicious or a POE scum candidate from a neutral view of the game, I'm trying not to get salty about it, but I think anyone townreading Vander is giving him way too much credit for play that profiles to me as the most scummy of the remaining players. It's clear the dude knows how to write townie sounding posts/arguments regardless of his alignment, but I think scum in this setup is more likely to wind up scumreading/voting their 3p buddy because they have no shot if they're linked together. It's also important to note that Bingle didn't push on Vander in any substantive way other than threatening to hammer him if he got to E-1.

Vander has also been absent for large stretches of the game, gave a weak (and in my mind, implausible) reason for not reading/responding to anything in the hood, and just doesn't feel interested in solving this game. His push on me effectively amounts to "I don't think you're scumreading me in good faith", and I think an honest townie in his shoes would have to recognize he's a viable scum candidate, especially if they share townreads on some of the other players.

[marcistar]

- Dunn is maybe in range of scumplay, but I think Bingle gave a real awkward townread on him early and I also stand by my thought that Dunn would have manipulated the game better on a D1 Bingle scumflip. He feels too detached and agenda-less to be trying to win a scumgame.

where do u think he gave an awkward townread on dunnstral? im confused because i dont see the awkward

thats the only one im confused about, but i dont like disagree but like i think hes a slight possibility

I get why I might be suspicious or a POE scum candidate from a neutral view of the game,

i dont rlly think ur sus cuz i think ur trying to actually help with only good intentions in ur mind

It's also important to note that Bingle didn't push on Vander in any substantive way other than threatening to hammer him if he got to E-1.

did bingle also not push on anyone else..? or was it only vanderscamp?

[Lukewarm]

Luke, can you go over why Bingle being scum makes Marci more likely?

I could see a world where Bingle defended me so that I would stay in the game to keep defending Marci.

Spoiler:

279 -Early on in the day, he disagreed with both Not_Mafia and Norwee when they said that Marci seemed the same as she was in our last game, when he could have just as easily kind of deferred to their meta experience with her.

395 + 399 - Then he hard came to my defense when there was a growing suspicion on me.

So at the time, I felt like he disagreed with both of the first 2 big townie wagons, and that that would be dangerous for scum!bingle to do (part of my TR for him). At the start of the game we were talking about eliminating from the 6p pool, so scum had a 1 in 6 to auto lose Day 1. If Bingle derailed the first 2 big town wagons, then he made that 1 in 4. So he increased the odds of an auto lose....

Unless of course, Marci was his partner. That would mean that he quietly disagreed with the case on Marci, then hard defended her most vocal defender.

I still don't know if I believe that Bingle would put marci in the 6p pool in the first place, and I don't think that marci would want to be in the 6p pool knowing that her being eliminated Day 1 would be an auto lose. So she is still not high on my scum list, but there is partner equity between her and Bingle that I noticed.

[GuiltyLion]

Assuming N_M scum we're left with:

Dunnstral
Hopkirk
marcistar

Vanderscamp's ISO doesn't lend itself well to being allied with N_M imo. Ping me if you disagree.

I don't think Dunn opens the way he did if he's scum with N_M. Too blatant.

I’m extremely bad at reading Dunnstral. If you can explain how he thinks and plays as scum, and why he wouldn’t be bold like that, feel free to enlighten me.

Dunn likes to low effort as both alignments ime. Calling out a partner as sus while voting one of the other people in the pool is something that is going to inevitably look bad and without the context of the last game it isn't a safe assumption we'll solve in the 6p first.

Is Dunn capable of being bold like that? Sure. Would Dunn actually draw late game attention to himself for a throwaway RVS vote? I don't think so, when he very much prefers to take the back seat and passively manipulate the thread.

NM being in the group of 3 is an anomoly. Is it because the deep scum is in the pool of 6 and NM is the other scum, or because they want to miselim NM in the smaller group?

VOTE: Bingle

This has serious reasoning on 1/3 of the small pool and a vote on a different 1/3 of the small pool.

If N_M flips scum, Dunn looks weird for having posted it and there's nothing to gain from having posted it. There's really nothing more that can be elaborated on there. Either you agree with the thought or you don't.

To his credit, Vanderscamp himself called this out as pretty bizarre/awkward reasoning to conclude a town!Dunn on a scum!N_M. The question is if scum!Bingle is more likely to dress up a fake anti-associative TR like this on a buddy or a townie.

In my mind, and especially in this set up where Bingle has to assume a serious risk of going down early this game, scum don't want to fake reasons to townread their buddies this way, especially if their buddy isn't playing hard to be read as obvious town. I think it's generally more likely he didn't want conflict with Dunn or to dress up a fake scumread, and so instead he backwards justified a townread on town, while maybe giving himself an angle to push Dunn if N_M flipped town.

[GuiltyLion]

did bingle also not push on anyone else..? or was it only vanderscamp?

on this, I should clarify - I don't think Bingle's associatives with Vanderscamp are damning in and of themselves, or that they only apply to Vander (he treated me much the same way, ignoring giving a substantial defense or a push). Rather I just mean to note that you can't clear Vander in the way you can clear Hopkirk. Bingle also hard defended Marci/Lukewarm to defuse their wagons which makes me think they're less likely buddies as well.

[GuiltyLion]

one last point on why I don't find Vanders' scumread on me genuine - he says I'm pushing him in bad faith, but who else does he think I *should* be pushing? If he's town and absent any other major scumreads (which is currently a fair assumption IMO given that he hasn't really pushed anyone else since his Bingle vote mid D1), how does he conclude that I'm scum solely on the basis of me pushing him? If he's not scumreading anyone else, who else would he expect me to push? He's already stated Hopkirk/Luke town on Bingle scumflip and that he TRs Marci on the basis of pool spec.

So from his point of view, the only possible scum are me and Dunn, and he's calling me scum (as opposed to Dunn) solely because he can't imagine that a town!me would scumread him. Terrible reasoning and I have to think he's better than that as town

[SirCakez]

Votecount 2.1

GuiltyLion (2) - Vanderscamp, Hopkirk
Lukewarm (1) - Not_Mafia
Vanderscamp (1) - GuiltyLion

Not voting (3) - marcistar, Dunnstral, Lukewarm

(expired on 2021-06-02 17:00:00) remain until day end

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to reach a majority.

[Vanderscamp]

A) I don't think the bingle kill would have happened without me.
I was continually calling out the stuff he was saying that made no sense, and I was essentially the only person who was defending killing into the 3p pool, I was speaking up to argue that killing there is not a bad idea when people were suggesting it was. Not possible for you to know since you've never played with me but I generally avoid bussing, I've commented on this on other games on this site.

Ok, but you understand that the nature of this setup encourages the 6p scum to look as good as possible on the 3p scum's flip, correct? If I were scum I'd certainly be pushing my buddy to make myself look town on his/her flip, especially once it was clear they were getting suspicion.

Can you also link me to those comments?

B) I thought they were both fairly scummy and iirc didn't feel super strongly about either. When I thought bingle became more scummy I voted him. If your reasoning was that the vote was toothless, why were you talking about the different pools and which of them I was voting into?

Because from where I'm sitting:
- You made an argument about why eliminating in the 3p should not be disregarded and if anything was actually slightly better odds to hit scum
- You gave plenty of reasons for suspecting Bingle and had nEE down as a townread
- You instead voted in the 6p for reasons I saw as comparatively much weaker, which seems incongruent with both of the above

C) I don't care if scum posts there or not, there's no reason to post anything of value in that hood that we can't post in the thread instead.

My point is that town should be scumhunting in both threads, and you ignoring me in the hood overnight feels more likely to be scum ignoring conflict/posting until they have to, rather than town just completely ignoring game relevant content.

I don't think that the 3p scum is anything close to a lost cause in this setup given the number of people who are happy to kill into the big pool first.
I also pushed bingle before he got suspicion iirc

Here's what I think is the most recent comment
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12738362

You may think my case against Marci was weaker than my bingle case, that's fine!
Eventually I did too when bingle didn't respond very well to what I had to say about him.
I don't think I was on Marci particularly long during the period when I scumread both of them because I remember voting bingle when he did react badly to what I had to say.


And I don't actually agree that town should be scumhunting in both threads.
Why is the neighborhood chat worth scumhunting in, how is it not just strictly worse than posting in the thread?
What benefit is there to a chat that potentially gets relayed to 100% of the scum and a fraction of the town?

But luckily you don't need to take my word for it that I believe this, you can look at the past game of this where I also did not read the neighborhood chat.

[Vanderscamp]

I'm interested to know why you voted in the first place

Do you think Hopkirk is scum after yesterday? Otherwise this is a completely useless question.

No, I don't think he is 0% to be scum though.

[Vanderscamp]

marci, do you disagree with any of my reasons for townreading those 4 players above?

I get why I might be suspicious or a POE scum candidate from a neutral view of the game, I'm trying not to get salty about it, but I think anyone townreading Vander is giving him way too much credit for play that profiles to me as the most scummy of the remaining players. It's clear the dude knows how to write townie sounding posts/arguments regardless of his alignment, but I think scum in this setup is more likely to wind up scumreading/voting their 3p buddy because they have no shot if they're linked together. It's also important to note that Bingle didn't push on Vander in any substantive way other than threatening to hammer him if he got to E-1.

Vander has also been absent for large stretches of the game, gave a weak (and in my mind, implausible) reason for not reading/responding to anything in the hood, and just doesn't feel interested in solving this game. His push on me effectively amounts to "I don't think you're scumreading me in good faith", and I think an honest townie in his shoes would have to recognize he's a viable scum candidate, especially if they share townreads on some of the other players.

It's not just about me being a viable scum candidate, it's the reasoning for your reads.

You're talking now about your reason for suspecting my Marci vote being that you think my case on bingle was better than my case on Marci, and therefore I should have been voting bingle (despite the fact that you asked me this question at the time and I said I thought Marci was more scummy but that I wasn't sure) but for most of the game you have been trying to phrase it as it not making sense that I would vote into the 6p pool at all, given what I said about voting into the 3p pool. It took about three responses from me detailing why that stance from you is garbage before you dropped that line, but you haven't acknowledged that at all, you've just pivoted your case on my Marci vote to something different but still "bad" about my vote.
This is why I don't think your case on me is genuine, I'm getting no sense at all of you reevaluating me in any way. There's a difference between saying my posts have sounded scummy or whatever, which would be a wrong read but would at least be a reasonable perspective, and saying shit like me not posting in the neighborhood chat being scummy and the 6p pool vote being scummy when these are things that are obviously objectively wrong from glancing at the other game of this roleset that I played AND have been explained to you why they're wrong many times.

[Vanderscamp]

Assuming N_M scum we're left with:

Dunnstral
Hopkirk
marcistar

Vanderscamp's ISO doesn't lend itself well to being allied with N_M imo. Ping me if you disagree.

I don't think Dunn opens the way he did if he's scum with N_M. Too blatant.

I’m extremely bad at reading Dunnstral. If you can explain how he thinks and plays as scum, and why he wouldn’t be bold like that, feel free to enlighten me.

Dunn likes to low effort as both alignments ime. Calling out a partner as sus while voting one of the other people in the pool is something that is going to inevitably look bad and without the context of the last game it isn't a safe assumption we'll solve in the 6p first.

Is Dunn capable of being bold like that? Sure. Would Dunn actually draw late game attention to himself for a throwaway RVS vote? I don't think so, when he very much prefers to take the back seat and passively manipulate the thread.

NM being in the group of 3 is an anomoly. Is it because the deep scum is in the pool of 6 and NM is the other scum, or because they want to miselim NM in the smaller group?

VOTE: Bingle

This has serious reasoning on 1/3 of the small pool and a vote on a different 1/3 of the small pool.

If N_M flips scum, Dunn looks weird for having posted it and there's nothing to gain from having posted it. There's really nothing more that can be elaborated on there. Either you agree with the thought or you don't.

To his credit, Vanderscamp himself called this out as pretty bizarre/awkward reasoning to conclude a town!Dunn on a scum!N_M. The question is if scum!Bingle is more likely to dress up a fake anti-associative TR like this on a buddy or a townie.

In my mind, and especially in this set up where Bingle has to assume a serious risk of going down early this game, scum don't want to fake reasons to townread their buddies this way, especially if their buddy isn't playing hard to be read as obvious town. I think it's generally more likely he didn't want conflict with Dunn or to dress up a fake scumread, and so instead he backwards justified a townread on town, while maybe giving himself an angle to push Dunn if N_M flipped town.

I obviously agree that this is a very awkward read, I don't agree that they can't be scum together from this
I think scum are in general more likely to give more genuine sounding reads on town they know are town, and less genuine sounding reads on scum they know are not town, and this is pretty obviously not a genuine read.
Last game I'm pretty sure both scum never pushed each other and gave fairly weak reasons to justify that.

[Vanderscamp]

did bingle also not push on anyone else..? or was it only vanderscamp?

on this, I should clarify - I don't think Bingle's associatives with Vanderscamp are damning in and of themselves, or that they only apply to Vander (he treated me much the same way, ignoring giving a substantial defense or a push). Rather I just mean to note that you can't clear Vander in the way you can clear Hopkirk. Bingle also hard defended Marci/Lukewarm to defuse their wagons which makes me think they're less likely buddies as well.

How is bingle diffusing the wagon of someone in the 6p pool an indication of being town?

I'm not evaluating bingle's actions under the assumption that he knew he was dying since I don't think it was obvious at all that we were going to kill into the small pool.

[Vanderscamp]

one last point on why I don't find Vanders' scumread on me genuine - he says I'm pushing him in bad faith, but who else does he think I *should* be pushing? If he's town and absent any other major scumreads (which is currently a fair assumption IMO given that he hasn't really pushed anyone else since his Bingle vote mid D1), how does he conclude that I'm scum solely on the basis of me pushing him? If he's not scumreading anyone else, who else would he expect me to push? He's already stated Hopkirk/Luke town on Bingle scumflip and that he TRs Marci on the basis of pool spec.

So from his point of view, the only possible scum are me and Dunn, and he's calling me scum (as opposed to Dunn) solely because he can't imagine that a town!me would scumread him. Terrible reasoning and I have to think he's better than that as town

Firstly I don't think at all the the "only possible scum" are you and Dunn.
I do think your townread on Dunn is poor, but even if I didn't, I've said already that I don't scumread you because you think I'm scum, I think hopkirk is still probably town even though he voted me. I think you're scummy because I don't think you believe your reasons for pushing on me, which has nothing to do with how I think you should be reading anyone else in the game.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm gonna keep 1v1ing I guess cause none of y'all else want to post I suppose

I don't think that the 3p scum is anything close to a lost cause in this setup given the number of people who are happy to kill into the big pool first.
I also pushed bingle before he got suspicion iirc

This is a pretty fundamental disagreement between us I think. If we had mis-elimmed in the big pool, I'm pretty sure the correct call after that would be to lim (up to) twice in the small pool to at least take a 66% chance of hitting scum with a F5 as worst case scenario. So in my mind, scum team is playing this entire game around losing the 3p scum member, even prior to gamestart in how they divide the pools.

Do you disagree with me on that? This ^ has been centrally driving how I've been evaluating players the entire game.

Here's what I think is the most recent comment
viewtopic.php?p=12738362#p12738362

I notice here you said:

I do bus occasionally, I actually bussed a couple of partners in a recent game, but when I do this I do it because I think the cred is worth it.

And now here in this game, your first and primary defense for why you should be seen as town is arguing that you are the reason that Bingle got eliminated. I think the cred for bussing in this setup, where (as I just said) you can presume 3p scum is very likely going to go down, is absolutely better than having awkward associations with your buddy.

You may think my case against Marci was weaker than my bingle case, that's fine!
Eventually I did too when bingle didn't respond very well to what I had to say about him.
I don't think I was on Marci particularly long during the period when I scumread both of them because I remember voting bingle when he did react badly to what I had to say.

Again you're twisting my words here - it's not solely that your case against Marci was weak, it's that your case against Marci was weak

combined with

the fact that you had said you had reads in the 3p and argued previously that 3p limming was mathematically comparable/better to limming in 6p.

And I don't actually agree that town should be scumhunting in both threads.
Why is the neighborhood chat worth scumhunting in, how is it not just strictly worse than posting in the thread?
What benefit is there to a chat that potentially gets relayed to 100% of the scum and a fraction of the town?

But luckily you don't need to take my word for it that I believe this, you can look at the past game of this where I also did not read the neighborhood chat.

Because scum is posting in the neighborhood and if you're concerned that I am scum it's odd that you don't bother to respond (let alone READ) at all to how I could be manipulating people in there. I checked your activity over the night phase and saw that while you hadn't posted site wide during the night phase, you had signed into the site around 10 hours before thread open. My belief is that a townie should at least be somewhat interested in what's been discussed in the hood after the Bingle flip. It's fair that you never posted in the hood in the past game, but I would say that:

a) this game has a pretty fundamental difference in that the main thread was locked after the D1 elim (which never occurred in the last game) and
b) it's still bad/anti-town play to not post in there and express your thoughts on discussion in the game, at bare minimum it's not transparent and a reason to be suspicious. Everyone else has posted in there.