Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[GuiltyLion]

But for some reason, Guilty Lion keeps saying that he scum read Bingle over Marci, and I just do not see that in his ISO at all

also, assuming you're not scum taking advantage of a TvT here, then this reasoning right here is exactly why you've been wrong on your scumreads in past games, frankly

yeah, I got the very minor details wrong of Vander voted marci first, then immediately ripped off a string of posts about why he thought Bingle was scummy. In my head this morning I had this happening in reverse order, but all the posts were posted by Vander immediately after each other and weren't broken up by any other players doing anything in the game.

The question you should be asking yourself is "a) does GL being wrong about this change his argument in any way" and "b) does GL

believe

what he's saying".

You're just doing like basic surface level "GL said it happened before the vote but it actually happened in the immediate posts after the vote, therefore he's scum" thinking and not even thinking at all about what my actual motivation would be for getting that wrong as scum. If I'm scum I play way more careful here and make sure I don't make mistakes, I carefully read everything I'm talking about to make sure the story I'm selling makes sense. As town I just post hip fire memories and takes because I don't need to hide anything about my thought process and emotions, and it means I'm more likely to get small, inconsequential details wrong, especially when they change literally nothing about the actually indicative point I'm calling out

[GuiltyLion]

It is

incontrovertible fact

that in the sequence of posts from 229 to 235, Vanderscamp votes Marci for very poor/shitty reasons, and meanwhile gives solid to great reasons to scumread Bingle. I have not once bought this game that his vote on Marcistar was because he

genuinely

thought she was

more likely

to flip red than Bingle,

especially once you take the pools into account

, which we KNOW Vander wanted to do. That is the clearest summation of this point that I can give, and what my case has been the entire game.

[Lukewarm]

IT'S RIGHT THERE IN HIS ISO HOW DO YOU NOT SEE IT

It just seems like you are making a big deal over him have a vote on marci for less then 12 hours.

When he voted Marci, I think that there were valid reasons in the thread to scum read her at that time, and I probably would have agreed with them had I not just witnessed her scum game.

So if he is starting with a SR on Marci, and still trying to sort Bingle, he voted Marci. Then over the course of 12 hours, his SR on Bingle formed, and he moved his vote.

I am not saying that his transition from a Marci -> Bingle vote is a reason to TR him, but it feels like all of your reasonings (not just this one, and not just on Vanders) come from a place of hunting for a reason to make a scum case on someone, rather then looking at someone and actively trying to sort them.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't believe his Marci vote was genuine, the fact that it lasted less than 12 hours is just further evidence for that point.

I am hunting to make a scum case on him, because I think he is scum! I've already sorted Hopkirk/Marci to my utmost satisfaction, and I'm comfortable thinking you are green enough for today and likely would still bet the game on you being town. So that leaves me with Dunn/Vander, and people are just blindly townreading Vander and I need to put a massive dent in it because I am going to be pissed if he skates to endgame with how little scumhunting he's done and his passive vote history he's built over this entire game.

[GuiltyLion]

Can you just promise me that you will flip him tomorrow. I honestly could care less that you are wrong about me but I am going to be very pissed if you just default to voting Dunn tomorrow and don't bother to reread my points and take me seriously even once paranoia about my slot is removed

[GuiltyLion]

couldn't* care less fuck

[Hopkirk]

UNVOTE: GL

[Not_Mafia]

Hopkirk you rascal you stole my hammer

[GuiltyLion]

you might get an opportunity still if that was a "let me read" unvote and not a "GL is clearly town" unvote

I'm trying to take a breath and consider if I'm wrong about Vander but not gonna lie it's really hard for me to see the town case for Vander. Luke has done some ostensibly overtly scummy stuff, and the way he's kinda ignored my pleads to elim Vander after me is kinda giving me pause - it doesn't match his attitude at all with Bingle EOD1 - but I still think this would be quite an impressive scumgame especially in terms of real time posting if he's scum here. Do we feel confident about a hypothetical Lukewarm/Marci/Dunn F3 if that does somehow happen? If Dunn is town and Actually Tries I think we'll be okay and that's the real worst case scenario

[SirCakez]

Votecount 2.2

GuiltyLion (2) - Vanderscamp, Lukewarm
Lukewarm (1) - Not_Mafia
Vanderscamp (1) - GuiltyLion

Not voting (3) - marcistar, Dunnstral, Hopkirk

(expired on 2021-06-02 17:00:00) remain until day end

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to reach a majority.

[marcistar]

777 "It just seems like you are making a big deal over him have a vote on marci for less then 12 hours." this is the reason for ur vote on guiltylions..? so like, if hes scum... why would he be doing this?
quite an obvious "big deal" surely would gain attention and then result in votes possibly, so what would a scum have to gain from it..? Putting their life out to say something like that..? I find it unlikely, its more likely they would be more cautious imo...

Spoiler:

though maybe i've just been biased cuz i've been townreading guiltylions.

(if hes scum) if he dies it would be gg..
i find how hes acting consistent with how hes been all game, it

doesn't

seem like hes trying to just push urgently to live another day, it seems more like after a scumflip he's gained more confidence in a read, which makes it seem a bit townie

but also, i have a genuine question for u;
day phase literally just started not that long ago, so

why did you felt the need to vote guiltylions..?

he already had 2 votes at that point (i think? thats what a votecount says..), and it says it takes 4 votes for a hammer... knowing not_mafias voting tendencies, the vote you made is very weird.... it seems like you were trying to get him hammered? you don't always need to vote someone you sus, you can just push without voting... would a townie really rush so quick into a vote like that, when its not 100% certain hes scum? a townie would doubt alot more, but you really don't seem to care..? it seems like ur kinda trying to stunt the conversations and make more options for miselims.

am i getting this wrong..?
this is just what im thinking rn, because the wagon on guiltylions kinda reeks imo, and this is the major flaw im finding in it

-- --

another question i have is,

how confident are you in this vote?

Spoiler:

like list the percentage

[Lukewarm]

you might get an opportunity still if that was a "let me read" unvote and not a "GL is clearly town" unvote

I'm trying to take a breath and consider if I'm wrong about Vander but not gonna lie it's really hard for me to see the town case for Vander. Luke has done some ostensibly overtly scummy stuff, and the way he's kinda ignored my pleads to elim Vander after me is kinda giving me pause - it doesn't match his attitude at all with Bingle EOD1 - but I still think this would be quite an impressive scumgame especially in terms of real time posting if he's scum here. Do we feel confident about a hypothetical Lukewarm/Marci/Dunn F3 if that does somehow happen? If Dunn is town and Actually Tries I think we'll be okay and that's the real worst case scenario

If you flip town, then I will look back over Vanders, but I am not sure I am ready to commit my vote for tomorrow.

I currently had him lower then you and Dunn both. But if you are town, then I will look back over everything based on both the Day flip and the Night Kill.

[Lukewarm]

777 "It just seems like you are making a big deal over him have a vote on marci for less then 12 hours." this is the reason for ur vote on guiltylions..? so like, if hes scum... why would he be doing this?
quite an obvious "big deal" surely would gain attention and then result in votes possibly, so what would a scum have to gain from it..? Putting their life out to say something like that..? I find it unlikely, its more likely they would be more cautious imo...

Spoiler:

though maybe i've just been biased cuz i've been townreading guiltylions.

(if hes scum) if he dies it would be gg..
i find how hes acting consistent with how hes been all game, it

doesn't

seem like hes trying to just push urgently to live another day, it seems more like after a scumflip he's gained more confidence in a read, which makes it seem a bit townie

but also, i have a genuine question for u;
day phase literally just started not that long ago, so

why did you felt the need to vote guiltylions..?

he already had 2 votes at that point (i think? thats what a votecount says..), and it says it takes 4 votes for a hammer... knowing not_mafias voting tendencies, the vote you made is very weird.... it seems like you were trying to get him hammered? you don't always need to vote someone you sus, you can just push without voting... would a townie really rush so quick into a vote like that, when its not 100% certain hes scum? a townie would doubt alot more, but you really don't seem to care..? it seems like ur kinda trying to stunt the conversations and make more options for miselims.

am i getting this wrong..?
this is just what im thinking rn, because the wagon on guiltylions kinda reeks imo, and this is the major flaw im finding in it

-- --

another question i have is,

how confident are you in this vote?

Spoiler:

like list the percentage

Maybe I am being quick on my vote, but like, we are in a 1:7 situation. We have a lot of leeway here. I know for a fact that Not_Mafia is town and I am pretty confident that you and hopkirk are both town. That just leaves GuiltyLion, Dunn, and Vanders.

So unless someone thinks that you are scum or someone thinks that hopkirk is scum, then it just kind of feels like the game is gonna be a town win by default from my PoV, and so I am being a little more free with my votes.

Spoiler:

I am probably like 45 on GL, 40 on Dunn, 15 on Vanders atm if you want percentages

[marcistar]

Maybe I am being quick on my vote, but like, we are in a 1:7 situation. We have a lot of leeway here.

are u usually quick on votes lukewarm?

we may have leeway rn, but if we do it all speedrun style that can backfire so quick on us

[Lukewarm]

Maybe I am being quick on my vote, but like, we are in a 1:7 situation. We have a lot of leeway here.

are u usually quick on votes lukewarm?

we may have leeway rn, but if we do it all speedrun style that can backfire so quick on us

I give each vote the amount of time I think it deserves. In a 1:3 Elo situation, I am not going to be voting until right at the dead line.

A 1:7, with an IC, and 2 other people that are hard Town Reads, not as much. That being said, I still put a lot of thought into my vote. I still went back trough the ISO of every player, looked for interactions between them and Bingle, and then sorted all of the players by their scumminess from my PoV, and then read through the arguments of all of the other players before I voted. And their arguments shifted my position, I started with Dunn as more suspicious then GL, but that changed through the day.

Do you have a case against someone you are more suspicious of? Because I would love to see it.

[Lukewarm]

Hopkirk you rascal you stole my hammer

Hey Mr. Confirmed Townie, what are your thoughts on Guilty Lion?

Do you have a Scum Read on anyone else at the moment?

[marcistar]

Do you have a case against someone you are more suspicious of? Because I would love to see it.

not rlly anything new yet, but i dont want us to rush too quick.
im planning to read deeper either tmmrw or sunday

[Lukewarm]

Do you have a case against someone you are more suspicious of? Because I would love to see it.

not rlly anything new yet, but i dont want us to rush too quick.
im planning to read deeper either tmmrw or sunday

UNVOTE:

I am still leaning towards GuiltyLion, but will wait for you to get a chance to get a read

[Hopkirk]

there's some takes from vanders in the last days i didn't really like but i am too tired to reread properly
Luke is openwolfing super hard and i want that to flip scum but am not sure if it did. need to look back at d1 a looooot more there
i think GL went up a bit but i need to reread d1
dunn isn't posting

we're at the point where 1 correct TR from the pool should be the POE win which is nice. idk why people are trying to take this quickly. we have what, 2 week deadlines at a guess? i don't see any reason not to drag this out for up to 40 days. that way even if scum win they still

suffer

[Lukewarm]

2 week deadlines at a guess? i don't see any reason not to drag this out for up to 40 days. that way even if scum win they still suffer

Why would anyone, town or scum, want this game to take any longer then necessary for them to win?

I am not against everyone taking however long they need to come to a decision each day, but dragging it out for the sole reason for making sure that "even if scum win they still suffer" sounds anti-fun to me, and I was under the impression we were here to have fun

If the consensus if for us to drag it out, can we either vote me out or can the mafia Night Kill me, because that does not sound fun at all.

[Dunnstral]

Luke, can you go over why Bingle being scum makes Marci more likely?

I could see a world where Bingle defended me so that I would stay in the game to keep defending Marci.

Spoiler:

279 -Early on in the day, he disagreed with both Not_Mafia and Norwee when they said that Marci seemed the same as she was in our last game, when he could have just as easily kind of deferred to their meta experience with her.

395 + 399 - Then he hard came to my defense when there was a growing suspicion on me.

So at the time, I felt like he disagreed with both of the first 2 big townie wagons, and that that would be dangerous for scum!bingle to do (part of my TR for him). At the start of the game we were talking about eliminating from the 6p pool, so scum had a 1 in 6 to auto lose Day 1. If Bingle derailed the first 2 big town wagons, then he made that 1 in 4. So he increased the odds of an auto lose....

Unless of course, Marci was his partner. That would mean that he quietly disagreed with the case on Marci, then hard defended her most vocal defender.

I still don't know if I believe that Bingle would put marci in the 6p pool in the first place, and I don't think that marci would want to be in the 6p pool knowing that her being eliminated Day 1 would be an auto lose. So she is still not high on my scum list, but there is partner equity between her and Bingle that I noticed.

Is it possible we're thinking about this wrong and Bingle wanted to be in the pool of 3 because he perceived it as harder?

[Lukewarm]

Luke is openwolfing super hard and i want that to flip scum but am not sure if it did. need to look back at d1 a looooot more there

Also, do people really think that Scum!Luke would have handled this game the way that I have played this game?

Because I feel like I should be obv town at this point. Like, maybe bad town, but obv town none the less.

[Dunnstral]

Because I feel like I should be obv town at this point. Like, maybe bad town, but obv town none the less.

Why?

[GuiltyLion]

This is what town!Bingle said in the last game:

I think Pooky/Infinity thinks that Pooky is the stronger scumplayer.

I think that Pooky/skitter thinks that both of them are strong enough to duck an elim.

Basically, I think the scum in the 6p is someone that has a higher opinion of their own scumgame than infinity or someone confident that they can get multiple miselims in that pool. I don't think a scumteam containing Vanders is confident that they can pull of multiple eliminations in that pool given the sum total of 3 completed games in the last three years Vanders has under his belt and the fact that he would definitely have a partner who could tell him that.

I'll be back to finish my thoughts in a while.

which is actually kinda funny given my read on Vanders in this game, but it definitely shows he's of the opinion that 6p scum would likely be stronger than 3p scum. There's a few posts earlier in his ISO (which don't quote quite as succinctly as this one) where he makes similar reads about 6p scum needing to be confident to duck a few eliminations. Does he reverse that belief for this game after he rolls scum? Frankly I don't know if anyone in this lobby could claim a stronger scumgame than Bingle based on past experience other than myself/Hopkirk/Dunn, but I know it's not me and I still strongly doubt Bingle-Hopkirk was S-S

[Vanderscamp]

I'm gonna keep 1v1ing I guess cause none of y'all else want to post I suppose

I don't think that the 3p scum is anything close to a lost cause in this setup given the number of people who are happy to kill into the big pool first.
I also pushed bingle before he got suspicion iirc

This is a pretty fundamental disagreement between us I think. If we had mis-elimmed in the big pool, I'm pretty sure the correct call after that would be to lim (up to) twice in the small pool to at least take a 66% chance of hitting scum with a F5 as worst case scenario. So in my mind, scum team is playing this entire game around losing the 3p scum member, even prior to gamestart in how they divide the pools.

Do you disagree with me on that? This ^ has been centrally driving how I've been evaluating players the entire game.

Here's what I think is the most recent comment
viewtopic.php?p=12738362#p12738362

I notice here you said:

I do bus occasionally, I actually bussed a couple of partners in a recent game, but when I do this I do it because I think the cred is worth it.

And now here in this game, your first and primary defense for why you should be seen as town is arguing that you are the reason that Bingle got eliminated. I think the cred for bussing in this setup, where (as I just said) you can presume 3p scum is very likely going to go down, is absolutely better than having awkward associations with your buddy.

You may think my case against Marci was weaker than my bingle case, that's fine!
Eventually I did too when bingle didn't respond very well to what I had to say about him.
I don't think I was on Marci particularly long during the period when I scumread both of them because I remember voting bingle when he did react badly to what I had to say.

Again you're twisting my words here - it's not solely that your case against Marci was weak, it's that your case against Marci was weak

combined with

the fact that you had said you had reads in the 3p and argued previously that 3p limming was mathematically comparable/better to limming in 6p.

And I don't actually agree that town should be scumhunting in both threads.
Why is the neighborhood chat worth scumhunting in, how is it not just strictly worse than posting in the thread?
What benefit is there to a chat that potentially gets relayed to 100% of the scum and a fraction of the town?

But luckily you don't need to take my word for it that I believe this, you can look at the past game of this where I also did not read the neighborhood chat.

Because scum is posting in the neighborhood and if you're concerned that I am scum it's odd that you don't bother to respond (let alone READ) at all to how I could be manipulating people in there. I checked your activity over the night phase and saw that while you hadn't posted site wide during the night phase, you had signed into the site around 10 hours before thread open. My belief is that a townie should at least be somewhat interested in what's been discussed in the hood after the Bingle flip. It's fair that you never posted in the hood in the past game, but I would say that:

a) this game has a pretty fundamental difference in that the main thread was locked after the D1 elim (which never occurred in the last game) and
b) it's still bad/anti-town play to not post in there and express your thoughts on discussion in the game, at bare minimum it's not transparent and a reason to be suspicious. Everyone else has posted in there.

I don't understand how you get to that conclusion in your first paragraph.
If we miskill into the big pool, and then twice into the small pool (although I have no idea why it would become correct to then and only then kill into the small pool) scum wins as soon as the small pool scum becomes outed.

As said I don't think the 3p scum is dead if the meta is to kill into the big pool, there is also a pretty large middle ground between awkward interactions and pushing bingle as hard as I did.

I'm not twisting your words, your analysis of me voting Marci just doesn't make any sense.
I obviously had reads on the 3p pool, last game I also had reads on the 3p pool and I still chose to vote into the 6p pool because I am just interested in voting my top scum.
It's possible you genuinely somehow don't understand my progression so I'll outline it again:

1) I develop a scumread on Marci
2) I vote Marci
3) I develop a scumread on bingle that is weaker than my scumread on bingle
4) not very long after I vote Marci, bingle responds poorly to a question I ask him about my scumread on him
5) bingle becomes a stronger scumread than Marci
6) I vote bingle


What step of that process doesn't make sense?




I also don't give a shit about what you think bad town play is.
You have yet to give me a single reason why the neighborhood chat is not strictly worse than posting in the thread.
It is not a thing that it is less transparent for me to be posting my thoughts here where everyone can see them vs posting in a chat that all of the scum and only some of the town can read.