Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[Vanderscamp]

for most of the game you have been trying to phrase it as it not making sense that I would vote into the 6p pool at all, given what I said about voting into the 3p pool

That's not really true, maybe I happened to phrase it that way at the start of my case today on D2 but it should be clear from my question on D1 that I've suspected this on the basis of me not understanding why your vote didn't align with the reads you gave. The fact that you had indicated that you disagreed with the thread notion of limming 6p first is just the cherry on top

Is this a troll?

[Vanderscamp]

Specifically the last sentence

[Vanderscamp]

I really don't think Lukewarm is likely, all the twilight posting would be hard to do in real time knowing Bingle scumflip was imminent, including posts in our hood between thread lock and flip.

I posted this in our hood and Vander ignored it in favor of not posting at all over the entirety of the night phase, here it is for your viewing pleasure N_M:

I think Vanders' progression on Bingle is quite awkward

in 230 he votes marcistar, despite the fact that he claimed to believe we should eliminate in the 3p. (I still maintain that despite posting a handful of times about eliminating in the 3p, Vanderscamp did not seem to actually care about eliminating in the 3p, especially when most players had suggested that we shouldn't).

He then quotes Bingle posts from prior to 230, in his 231 and 233 he quotes Bingle's 212 and 219, then concludes in 235 that he thinks Bingle is scummier than N_M and that he thinks nEE is town. If that's the case, given that he thinks 3p was a better odds to hit scum and he's townreading one of the 3p, why was he voting elsewhere? I called this out in my post 236 and got a very short 238 in reply, which I didn't sense Vanders genuinely believed given that he spent more time discussing Bingle than marcistar.

Then the progression from question -> I don't like your answer -> vote (in 255, 262, 263) feels like where the decision to bus comes in. Despite scumreading and voting (!) Bingle, Vanders claims he got "nothing" out of Bingle v Hopkirk in 329 - I feel a townie who was voting Bingle as their primary SR there would have had more to say.

I also still agree with my own 469 and I don't think Vanderscamp understood my point nor addressed it in a satisfying way. My point wasn't that he wasn't aware of the pools once he posted, my point was "I was gonna say it's not S-S until I remembered [emphasis mine] it couldn't be" betrays a lack of critical thought or care about the pools when analyzing interactions. I haven't once forgotten who was in which pool this game, because it's centrally important to determining who scum is. Vanders post implied that he did, which I find hard to believe coming from town.

I also think Bingle's openwolf 477 may have been meant to scare us away from a Vander wagon.

This is responding to the first half of what you said

[Vanderscamp]

A) I don't think the bingle kill would have happened without me.
I was continually calling out the stuff he was saying that made no sense, and I was essentially the only person who was defending killing into the 3p pool, I was speaking up to argue that killing there is not a bad idea when people were suggesting it was. Not possible for you to know since you've never played with me but I generally avoid bussing, I've commented on this on other games on this site.

Ok, but you understand that the nature of this setup encourages the 6p scum to look as good as possible on the 3p scum's flip, correct? If I were scum I'd certainly be pushing my buddy to make myself look town on his/her flip, especially once it was clear they were getting suspicion.

Can you also link me to those comments?

B) I thought they were both fairly scummy and iirc didn't feel super strongly about either. When I thought bingle became more scummy I voted him. If your reasoning was that the vote was toothless, why were you talking about the different pools and which of them I was voting into?

Because from where I'm sitting:
- You made an argument about why eliminating in the 3p should not be disregarded and if anything was actually slightly better odds to hit scum
- You gave plenty of reasons for suspecting Bingle and had nEE down as a townread
- You instead voted in the 6p for reasons I saw as comparatively much weaker, which seems incongruent with both of the above

C) I don't care if scum posts there or not, there's no reason to post anything of value in that hood that we can't post in the thread instead.

My point is that town should be scumhunting in both threads, and you ignoring me in the hood overnight feels more likely to be scum ignoring conflict/posting until they have to, rather than town just completely ignoring game relevant content.

Here you are still talking about voting into the different pools

[Vanderscamp]

There's a difference between saying my posts have sounded scummy or whatever, which would be a wrong read but would at least be a reasonable perspective, and saying shit like me not posting in the neighborhood chat being scummy and the 6p pool vote being scummy when these are things that are obviously objectively wrong from glancing at the other game of this roleset that I played AND have been explained to you why they're wrong many times.

I think you're scummy because I don't think you believe your reasons for pushing on me, which has nothing to do with how I think you should be reading anyone else in the game.

All you've discussed in your defense is why you think my reasons for scumreading you are wrong. It's quite a leap to then argue that this means I must not believe in them. Do you have any reasons for thinking I don't

believe

in my scumread on you, even if you (obviously) disagree with points I'm making? Which points specifically do you think a town!me would not believe in?

I've already said this multiple times

[Vanderscamp]

I think scum are in general more likely to give more genuine sounding reads on town they know are town, and less genuine sounding reads on scum they know are not town, and this is pretty obviously not a genuine read.
Last game I'm pretty sure both scum never pushed each other and gave fairly weak reasons to justify that.

We agree the read on Dunn isn't genuine but I think if scum!Bingle is making a disingenuous read on scum!Dunn he's going to be more careful about how blatantly disingenuous it would look on his flip. We actually have this is evidence of how Bingle thinks, because that's what he was trying to argue a scum!Dunn paired with scum!N_M

wasn't trying to do

.

Also, last game scum autolost on D1, so that seems to indicate they played the game poorly, don't ya think?

Not that it particularly matters, but I think Pooky played quite poorly and the other scum played fine and was dragged down by his partner.

Do you think bingle played well this game?
Because unless you do, why are you asking me that question?

[Vanderscamp]

How is bingle diffusing the wagon of someone in the 6p pool an indication of being town?

Same philosophy as in my other replies to you here -

given that scum know scum!Bingle in this game is more likely than the average scum player in an average setup to be eliminated

, I believe it's less likely he'd stick his neck out for a buddy in an obvious way unless he absolutely needed to. Maybe Lukewarm was getting close to that point, which is why I'm not completely clearing him as town, but Marci wasn't. Combined with independent reasons to TR each player, it makes the altogether odds that scum!Bingle is paired with either of them fairly low IMO, in my experience scum will often position themselves against early popular wagons to try to give them things to argue about and feel like they're sorting - you can get a fair amount of D1 towncred from defending actual town. As I also said earlier, it looks more to me like a pocket on Lukewarm.

Sure, but you can use the same logic as you are using about last game:
Last game, whoever the 3p scum was (I don't remember his name) did not do a very efficient job of diffusing the Pooky wagon, he just waffled on it and remained neutral and ultimately town decided pooky was very scummy and we killed him and won.
Why wouldn't bingle adjust to this failure and then decide to try harder to prevent a D1 autoloss?

Fwiw I don't think you are actually scummy from these bingle-dependent arguments because they make some sense and I see where you're coming from, I just don't really agree with the conclusions and think you're putting way too much weight on wifom.

[Vanderscamp]

but for most of the game you have been trying to phrase it as it not making sense that I would vote into the 6p pool at all

In fact, this is actually a pretty significant misrep the more I think about it and I have the receipts:

do you think marcistar is scummier than bingle?

Here's what I posted when I first felt it was suspicious that Vander gave a bunch of reasons for suspecting Bingle but voted marcistar instead. It's clear that I find it weird that he's voting marcistar

as opposed to Bingle

, said nothing about the pools.

Here's where I start really reiterating a push/case on him:

The strongest/most meaningful content he's posted has been about Bingle, his questionable reasoning about both the Dunn & Norway slots, but it's rather easy for me to imagine that content being either a) scum!Vanders jumping on a townie making illogical/reachy assertions without justifying why those assertions indicate

scum

alignment or b) scum!Vanders distancing/bussing a buddy!Bingle. He's also just holistically been pretty inactive this game, he hasn't bothered to fight harder against the thread consensus to eliminate in the 6p despite his strongest SR being Bingle, and he hasn't taken a lead or a stake in substantially building nor defusing any wagons.

Note that I've said nothing about Vander's attitude about the pools prior to this post. Now look at what I am saying - what's weird is that "he hasn't bothered to fight harder against thread consensus to eliminate in the 6p

DESPITE HIS STRONGEST SR BEING BINGLE

". Again, referring to the fact that his posts are all centered around Bingle being scummy to him, having reasons to suspect Bingle.

But look at how Vander twists the argument in his reply to defend himself:

It's also ridiculous to say that

I haven't pushed harder against killing into the big pool

, I have probably said more than any other player in this game about which pool is better to kill into

He drops the most important part of my point ("Bingle is your strongest SR, why were you a)voting Marcistar and b)not trying to get people to lim Bingle instead") and shifts the entire discussion to instead being about how he argued for limming in the 3p in the general sense. It's a misrep to make my argument different than what it was.

On D2, I did phrase it poorly:

in 230 he votes marcistar, despite the fact that he claimed to believe we should eliminate in the 3p. (I still maintain that despite posting a handful of times about eliminating in the 3p, Vanderscamp did not seem to actually care about eliminating in the 3p, especially when most players had suggested that we shouldn't).

I have a bit of mea cupla on this one, it does read less focused on the oddness of his votes/play regarding who he wants to eliminate, and more about the general 6p/3p discussion. But even here, you can see what I'm trying to say despite the poor phrasing - I'm saying he "did not seem to care about eliminating in the 3p" because of my prior memory that he gave reasons to scumread Bingle yet voted marcistar, and then when he did switch to Bingle he disappeared for quite a long time IRL and came back and barely pushed it (SEE 329).

But now suddenly, this amounts to Vander saying that "most of the game" I've been phrasing it as not making sense about voting in 6p? Nuh uh. What didn't make sense was voting marcistar, specifically after giving reasons why your vote should have been on Bingle. The secondary point is that you can't use the argument about us limming in the 6p as a defense, because you already have a well-documented belief that voting in the 3p was fine.

I stopped reading after the first line of this, hopefully you can agree from the parts of your posts I bolded several posts ago that it is not a misrep to say that you were saying it was suspicious that I voted into the 6p pool at all.
You did do it a little less than I had remembered but you were still clearly doing it.

[Vanderscamp]

Firstly I don't think at all the the "only possible scum" are you and Dunn.

also on this,

I'm not seeing why town!Vander would feel the need to disagree with this. In his own words:

I read Marci as town from the meta about which pool she would be in despite reading her content as scummy.
I think I like lukewarm now,

like that was a self-hammer since you made the vote knowing that NM was going to vote you. if this flips town then i'm pissed and you've lost the respect i had for you as a player before this. the amount of self-hammers i see from town ruining a good half of my games is pissing me off.

I think given scum bingle this was a very towny comment from hopkirk btw

I also think given scum bingle the stuff lukewarm was saying about flipping bingle to confirm the validity of his reads if he's town is towny

Because, very obviously, I don't think it's impossible that my town reads are wrong.

[Vanderscamp]

you can't just townread people when it's convenient to townread them but then say you're not looking at the other players by POE. If they're town they're town and you should be willing to put your foot in the ground there. I would say I'm literally never voting Hopkirk or marcistar this game at this point, doesn't feel like you'd commit to the same?

I'm not saying I'm not looking at other players by PoE, I'm saying it's not impossible that people outside the PoE are scum.

And no, I won't commit to that.
Particularly Marci who I still think does not read as towny in any way, the only reason I am townreading her is the meta of the pool stuff which I do believe is probably accurate.
I'd be very surprised if I vote hopkirk this game but he is not lock clear either.

[Vanderscamp]

He has repeatedly brought up the fact that Vanderscamp voted Marci as a reason to scum read him, which also seems off to me. The main issue here, is that this is exactly how Vanders handled the first game. He made the same argument about the math of voting in each pool, made the same conclusion that it was really just best to vote for the scummiest person regardless of pool, then he voted in the 6p pool. - So why is GL taking this to be scum indicative
-Also, at the time multiple people said that marci seemed scummy, including 2 people with experience with scum!marci (both of which have been confirmed town, so scum reading Marci at that point in the day was clearly not a scum only trait)

Because Vander gave NO good reasons for scumreading Marci, and plenty of good reasons to scumread Bingle! Then he votes Marci and I've not understood why the entire game. See 236.

I still think my reasons to scumread Marci were good atm despite thinking she is probably town.
She was here and actively declining to provide real content and she gave a response to something that I don't remember that read as pretty awkward that I still think reads as awkward.

[Vanderscamp]

He has repeatedly brought up the fact that Vanderscamp voted Marci as a reason to scum read him, which also seems off to me. The main issue here, is that this is exactly how Vanders handled the first game. He made the same argument about the math of voting in each pool, made the same conclusion that it was really just best to vote for the scummiest person regardless of pool, then he voted in the 6p pool. - So why is GL taking this to be scum indicative
-Also, at the time multiple people said that marci seemed scummy, including 2 people with experience with scum!marci (both of which have been confirmed town, so scum reading Marci at that point in the day was clearly not a scum only trait)

Because Vander gave NO good reasons for scumreading Marci, and plenty of good reasons to scumread Bingle! Then he votes Marci and I've not understood why the entire game. See 236.

Here's where I start really reiterating a push/case on him:

The strongest/most meaningful content he's posted has been about Bingle, his questionable reasoning about both the Dunn & Norway slots, but it's rather easy for me to imagine that content being either a) scum!Vanders jumping on a townie making illogical/reachy assertions without justifying why those assertions indicate

scum

alignment or b) scum!Vanders distancing/bussing a buddy!Bingle. He's also just holistically been pretty inactive this game, he hasn't bothered to fight harder against the thread consensus to eliminate in the 6p despite his strongest SR being Bingle, and he hasn't taken a lead or a stake in substantially building nor defusing any wagons.

Note that I've said nothing about Vander's attitude about the pools prior to this post. Now look at what I am saying - what's weird is that "he hasn't bothered to fight harder against thread consensus to eliminate in the 6p

DESPITE HIS STRONGEST SR BEING BINGLE

". Again, referring to the fact that his posts are all centered around Bingle being scummy to him, having reasons to suspect Bingle.

But look at how Vander twists the argument in his reply to defend himself:

It's also ridiculous to say that

I haven't pushed harder against killing into the big pool

, I have probably said more than any other player in this game about which pool is better to kill into

He drops the most important part of my point ("Bingle is your strongest SR, why were you a)voting Marcistar and b)not trying to get people to lim Bingle instead") and shifts the entire discussion to instead being about how he argued for limming in the 3p in the general sense. It's a misrep to make my argument different than what it was.

Also, very much dislike this post. He is accusing Vanders of twisting the argument, but then makes an argument that is fundamentally not true.

He says "Bingle is your strongest SR, why were you a)voting Marcistar and b)not trying to get people to lim Bingle instead"

When Vanders voted Marci, he had not once said that anything Bingle had done was scummy. So where is this idea coming from?

He votes Marci in post 230. In post 238 he says that Marci is scummier then Bingle, followed by 4 posts in a row (in his ISO) where he presses on his Marci scum read (post 239, post 243, post 244, post 249.

Then he asks Bingle a question, and really does not like his answer (post 262) and immediately moves his vote to Bingle (post 263).

But for some reason, Guilty Lion keeps saying that he scum read Bingle over Marci, and I just do not see that in his ISO at all

I guess I should have read this, because you're right in that it's complete crap

At NO POINT did I ever have my vote on Marci when bingle was my top scumread.

If by saying this GL is trying to say my strongest scumread in his opinion, sure, but that's an extremely misleading way to phrase that

[Vanderscamp]

It is

incontrovertible fact

that in the sequence of posts from 229 to 235, Vanderscamp votes Marci for very poor/shitty reasons, and meanwhile gives solid to great reasons to scumread Bingle. I have not once bought this game that his vote on Marcistar was because he

genuinely

thought she was

more likely

to flip red than Bingle,

especially once you take the pools into account

, which we KNOW Vander wanted to do. That is the clearest summation of this point that I can give, and what my case has been the entire game.

If you thought that my reasons against bingle were solid to great, why did you not mention that fact at any point before he flipped scum?

[Vanderscamp]

I don't believe his Marci vote was genuine, the fact that it lasted less than 12 hours is just further evidence for that point.

I am hunting to make a scum case on him, because I think he is scum! I've already sorted Hopkirk/Marci to my utmost satisfaction, and I'm comfortable thinking you are green enough for today and likely would still bet the game on you being town. So that leaves me with Dunn/Vander, and people are just blindly townreading Vander and I need to put a massive dent in it because I am going to be pissed if he skates to endgame with how little scumhunting he's done and his passive vote history he's built over this entire game.

How the fuck is me not leaving my vote on Marci for a long time after I made my case on bingle and he reacted badly further evidence for the point???
what the hell length of time would not be "further evidence" given my Marci scum read happened before the bingle one?

[Vanderscamp]

there's some takes from vanders in the last days i didn't really like but i am too tired to reread properly
Luke is openwolfing super hard and i want that to flip scum but am not sure if it did. need to look back at d1 a looooot more there
i think GL went up a bit but i need to reread d1
dunn isn't posting

we're at the point where 1 correct TR from the pool should be the POE win which is nice. idk why people are trying to take this quickly. we have what, 2 week deadlines at a guess? i don't see any reason not to drag this out for up to 40 days. that way even if scum win they still

suffer

Why is he openwolfing?
Because I agree with basically everything he has said the last day, although I'm probably pretty biased because it's him shitting on the case against me

[Vanderscamp]

This is what town!Bingle said in the last game:

I think Pooky/Infinity thinks that Pooky is the stronger scumplayer.

I think that Pooky/skitter thinks that both of them are strong enough to duck an elim.

Basically, I think the scum in the 6p is someone that has a higher opinion of their own scumgame than infinity or someone confident that they can get multiple miselims in that pool. I don't think a scumteam containing Vanders is confident that they can pull of multiple eliminations in that pool given the sum total of 3 completed games in the last three years Vanders has under his belt and the fact that he would definitely have a partner who could tell him that.

I'll be back to finish my thoughts in a while.

which is actually kinda funny given my read on Vanders in this game, but it definitely shows he's of the opinion that 6p scum would likely be stronger than 3p scum. There's a few posts earlier in his ISO (which don't quote quite as succinctly as this one) where he makes similar reads about 6p scum needing to be confident to duck a few eliminations. Does he reverse that belief for this game after he rolls scum? Frankly I don't know if anyone in this lobby could claim a stronger scumgame than Bingle based on past experience other than myself/Hopkirk/Dunn, but I know it's not me and I still strongly doubt Bingle-Hopkirk was S-S

Pretty interested to know how this affects your read of me

[Lukewarm]

I am going back through GuiltyLion's iso, and now I am trying to think if Scum!GL would really go this hard after Vanders when he is not getting much support and being met with resistance.

Maybe GuiltyLion is just tunneled and therefore everything about Vanders automatically reads as scummy? That could explain some of the bad takes I felt like I was seeing from him.

Spoiler: GL

GL I do not think all of your points are bad. I do see where some of your reads are coming from, but they are intermixed with a lot of accusations that certain behavior means he is scum, despite the same thing existing in his confirmed town version of this game. I originally read that as scum trying to come up with a reason to push as SR, but now I am wondering if it is just a townie who is tunneled into seeing scum-behavior in every post from their SR

I think that maybe Dunn is back to my top choice for the day

Not_Mafia, who are your top choices for an elim today?

[GuiltyLion]

As said I don't think the 3p scum is dead if the meta is to kill into the big pool, there is also a pretty large middle ground between awkward interactions and pushing bingle as hard as I did.

You didn't push bingle hard, what the hell? you parked your vote on him, failed to post in the thread for a long time, came back and said you "got nothing" out of his notable fight with Hopkirk, then made a couple other random questions to him. That is light years from "pushing bingle hard" lmao.

[GuiltyLion]

You have yet to give me a single reason why the neighborhood chat is not strictly worse than posting in the thread.

It's not about needing to post in the neighborhood chat because it's better or worse than posting in the main thread (claims I never made) so much as it is incredibly suspect that you claimed to not even be

reading

it when I asked why you weren't posting there.

[GuiltyLion]

It is

incontrovertible fact

that in the sequence of posts from 229 to 235, Vanderscamp votes Marci for very poor/shitty reasons, and meanwhile gives solid to great reasons to scumread Bingle. I have not once bought this game that his vote on Marcistar was because he

genuinely

thought she was

more likely

to flip red than Bingle,

especially once you take the pools into account

, which we KNOW Vander wanted to do. That is the clearest summation of this point that I can give, and what my case has been the entire game.

If you thought that my reasons against bingle were solid to great, why did you not mention that fact at any point before he flipped scum?

gonna take a page from your book where I just quote relevant posts in my ISO and ignore the rest of the substance of your point

do you think marcistar is scummier than bingle?

The strongest/most meaningful content he's posted has been about Bingle, his questionable reasoning about both the Dunn & Norway slots, but it's rather easy for me to imagine that content being either a) scum!Vanders jumping on a townie making illogical/reachy assertions without justifying why those assertions indicate

scum

alignment or b) scum!Vanders distancing/bussing a buddy!Bingle. He's also just holistically been pretty inactive this game, he hasn't bothered to fight harder against the thread consensus to eliminate in the 6p despite his strongest SR being Bingle, and he hasn't taken a lead or a stake in substantially building nor defusing any wagons.

- Overall I do find Bingle scummiest in the 3p hood in a vacuum but I'm struggling to see winning partner candidates due to the above ^. This is one of the matters I intend to sleep on. If you're in this game and scumreading Bingle but townreading Lukewarm/marcistar I need help seeing why Bingle is playing the way he's playing - who is his partner and how do they win after we eliminate a town!Hopkirk?

[GuiltyLion]

Pretty interested to know how this affects your read of me

I actually do think it lowers your scum equity somewhat and I'll use this as an opportunity to give you another olive branch, because I'm really not interested in continuing to relitigate the same points against you and your same defenses against them.

You keep making claims that I don't believe in my scumread on you, I think it should be pretty evident that I do. I've also explained several times why I'm townreading Hopkirk, marcistar, and Lukewarm to the point where I have no interest in voting them unless it got to literally F3 and I had to rethink the whole game. So that leaves me with two candidates left and I find your play to be altogether scummier than Dunn's, and it also looks to me like if you are scum, you are trying a lot harder to

win the game

than a hypothetical scum!Dunn is.

If you are town, and you were to know for a fact that I am town, who would you be looking at here? Because from where I'm sitting Bingle and marci were your only real scumreads yesterday, you haven't committed to any other scumreads today besides arguing with me saying I must be scum because you don't like my case on you, and yet you won't even commit to solid townreads elsewhere to help yourself POE. Part of my goal is to make sure you can't possibly avoid my potential flip today with any semblance of town credit because I see scum!you as the biggest potential threat in this game and I've played very hard to try to ensure that scum!you won't win. If you're really town and I'm flipped today you should have no shot to live through endgame and that means effectively one more chance to identify scum. and I really don't see you caring about that at all, it has felt to me like your priority is to win a 1v1 and survive today.

[GuiltyLion]

basically what I need is an explanation of who is Bingle's partner if it's not you. I really can't see Hopkirk at all. Marcistar would be an incredibly brave choice to put in the 6p. Lukewarm felt to me genuinely uninformed about Bingle's alignment and I think Bingle worked to pocket Lukewarm rather than save a buddy. So if it's not you then it's Dunn, and maybe we're eating ourselves up and ignoring the low WIM scum just coasting, but you haven't seemed interested in looking there at all and it's not clear to me why, especially given how cagey you've generally been with townreads.

[GuiltyLion]

Is this a troll?

also, this is a really thoughtless response/accusation

like, if I'm scum, then these would be the best arguments that I believe I can make, and I would believe that pushing them will get you flipped without making me more likely to be flipped once you are miseliminated.

if I'm town, even if you think I'm bad/dumb town, then it's a genuine push and I'm not trolling.

in either universe, there's not really any world where I'm trolling. so what exactly are you suggesting here? You're just insulting me to discredit my arguments to try to make yourself look better, instead of actually sussing out whether you think it's AI or explaining why scum!me is making these points or even why they are wrong

and this is not an invitation to keep arguing with me, cause I don't think it's productive at this point

[Lukewarm]

Oh, Not_Mafia, our dear mod confirmed townie, why hast thou forsaken us?

Please return to the thread and offer us your guidance. Do so, and I swear I shall never again scum read you for being active in a game.

Spoiler:

but for real tho, who you thinking?

[marcistar]

Oh, Not_Mafia, our dear mod confirmed townie, why hast thou forsaken us?

Please return to the thread and offer us your guidance. Do so, and I swear I shall never again scum read you for being active in a game.

Spoiler:

but for real tho, who you thinking?

why are u so obsessed with him?