Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[Lukewarm]

Oh, Not_Mafia, our dear mod confirmed townie, why hast thou forsaken us?

Please return to the thread and offer us your guidance. Do so, and I swear I shall never again scum read you for being active in a game.

Spoiler:

but for real tho, who you thinking?

why are u so obsessed with him?

Because I like to hear from the only person in the thread that I know 100% I can trust, and I don't have to look for ulterior motives from.

But so far he has not really given us anything

[SirCakez]

Votecount 2.3

GuiltyLion (1) - Vanderscamp
Lukewarm (1) - Not_Mafia
Vanderscamp (1) - GuiltyLion

Not voting (4) - marcistar, Dunnstral, Hopkirk, Lukewarm

(expired on 2021-06-02 17:00:00) remain until day end

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to reach a majority.

[SirCakez]

Prodding Not_Mafia

[Not_Mafia]

Oh, Not_Mafia, our dear mod confirmed townie, why hast thou forsaken us?

Please return to the thread and offer us your guidance. Do so, and I swear I shall never again scum read you for being active in a game.

Spoiler:

but for real tho, who you thinking?

why are u so obsessed with him?

Because I like to hear from the only person in the thread that I know 100% I can trust, and I don't have to look for ulterior motives from.

But so far he has not really given us anything

I want GuiltyLion, Norwee-senpai wants Lukewarm

[Dunnstral]

We need to reach some form of consensus

[Lukewarm]

We need to reach some form of consensus

At the moment, I am mainly waiting to give marci a chance to read back through and comment before I vote again

Do you have a case against someone you are more suspicious of? Because I would love to see it.

not rlly anything new yet, but i dont want us to rush too quick.
im planning to read deeper either tmmrw or sunday

[GuiltyLion]

We need to reach some form of consensus

you can't just say this while not putting any opinions down

[Lukewarm]

We need to reach some form of consensus

you can't just say this while not putting any opinions down

Hey, good point.

Dunn, what is your read list atm?

[GuiltyLion]

I don't know what to do to help improve town's chances if no one is really engaging with me other than Vander. Lukewarm do you really not find any of my points against him convincing at all?

Can you walk me through how you think scum in the 6p should play this game, especially if you don't see Vanders as scummy? You were thinking on D1 about how Bingle's play didn't make sense pushing eliminations off of marcistar and yourself, yet it doesn't feel like I can get you to think at all about how Vanders' play makes sense attempting to solidify towncred from scumreading and ultimately bussing his buddy. The fact that he said today that he "pushed Bingle hard" (do you agree that he did?) is also evidence for this. It's why I think he has far more scum equity than Dunn, Dunn isn't trying to survive at all or set himself up to endgame.

[GuiltyLion]

if I've whiffed on the Vander read completely, it feels like whoever is scum is too afraid to commit at all in the TvT here. Certainly they haven't jumped to join me in burying Vanders, which would be a pretty easy and natural play for them since I would look a whole lot worse were he to flip green.

[Lukewarm]

I don't know what to do to help improve town's chances if no one is really engaging with me other than Vander. Lukewarm do you really not find any of my points against him convincing at all?

Can you walk me through how you think scum in the 6p should play this game, especially if you don't see Vanders as scummy? You were thinking on D1 about how Bingle's play didn't make sense pushing eliminations off of marcistar and yourself, yet it doesn't feel like I can get you to think at all about how Vanders' play makes sense attempting to solidify towncred from scumreading and ultimately bussing his buddy. The fact that he said today that he "pushed Bingle hard" (do you agree that he did?) is also evidence for this. It's why I think he has far more scum equity than Dunn, Dunn isn't trying to survive at all or set himself up to endgame.

I looked back through your iso, and grabbed what seemed I think your points against Vanders are:

You don't like his progression from a Marci to a Bingle vote Day 1

Honestly, I am am a bit ambivalent on this point. Because when I read though it, what I see is Vanders with a scum read on Marci voting Marci.
Then this post, for me at least, answers why he had not moved his vote yet

Bingle can you talk about what I asked you about Dunn?

He was waiting for Bingle to respond to his questions. And as soon an Bingle answers, he votes.
I see no reason to TR Vanders for his interactions with Bingle here, but I don't spot it as immediately suspicious

You don't like that he forgot me/Marci could be S/S

I actually really don't like this point. Because in the context of the post, he was actively examing the interactions between me and marci, and running through the possibilities of that interaction, and then dismissed the possibility of s/s himself. The fact that he never suggested it in the thread makes me not suspicious for him over this. Once again, I see no reason to TR him for this, but it does not strike me as suspicious

You don't like that he ignored the neighborhood chat

I find it hard to say that this is scum indicative, simply by virtue of looking at the neighborhood chat iso from the last game. So, no reason to TR him for it, but no reason for me to SR him for it either.


So overall, the things you are point to to scum read him are all things that seem like they are not reasons to scum read him. On the flip side tho, I do not have a ton of reasons to TR him either, which is why he is still in my potential scum pool, he is just not at the top of my list.

The main reason he is lower on my elimination priority is because Bingle's "vote Vanders today, then vote Hopkirk tomorrow" seems like a risky play to make if Vanders was his partner. Compared to him actively pushing the votes away from Marci, me, you, and Dunn.

To be honest with you, it feels like you approached him looking for reasons to state he was scum. I originally thought it was scum!you trying to hunt for a case to make against a town player, but now I am realizing that you stated that this case has an element of it being a PoE case limiting it to just Vanders, and therefore you were hunting for any and every reason that could be scummy. So I guess I could see this case coming from scum or town.

I think that Dunn is my current top choice for elim today

[GuiltyLion]

I actually really don't like this point. Because in the context of the post, he was actively examing the interactions between me and marci, and running through the possibilities of that interaction, and then dismissed the possibility of s/s himself. The fact that he never suggested it in the thread makes me not suspicious for him over this. Once again, I see no reason to TR him for this, but it does not strike me as suspicious

I think I just wanna clarify this point, otherwise I find your post fair enough.

The argument I'm making is that he should have

already known

just from thinking about the game and playing from a town perspective, that marci/Luke cannot be a S-S interaction. I think it's far less likely that a townie wouldn't already have this in mind when reading two players in the same pool talking to each other. I'm basing this on my own mindset playing the game - once I internalized who was in each pool at gamestart, I have been intentionally reading every interaction across-pool with potential associatives in mind, and within-pool differently specifically

because

they could only be T-T or T-S. I even mentioned this in one of my own posts 273.

So when he says,

Was going to say it didn't feel like a S/S interaction from them before I

remembered

that isn't possible anyway.

it registers on my bullshit radar. A townie should not have 'forgotten' that it was impossible. I can't grok or empathize with that at all.

To me, this feels like scum making things up to simulate a fictional thought process. I don't buy it as an authentic one. I find it remarkably hard to imagine that town!Vanderscamp was reading conversation between two players in the same pool and not already aware that it cannot be a S-S interaction.

Have you at any point this game "forgotten" who was in each pool and who could or couldn't be potentially aligned?

[Vanderscamp]

Pretty interested to know how this affects your read of me

I actually do think it lowers your scum equity somewhat and I'll use this as an opportunity to give you another olive branch, because I'm really not interested in continuing to relitigate the same points against you and your same defenses against them.

You keep making claims that I don't believe in my scumread on you, I think it should be pretty evident that I do. I've also explained several times why I'm townreading Hopkirk, marcistar, and Lukewarm to the point where I have no interest in voting them unless it got to literally F3 and I had to rethink the whole game. So that leaves me with two candidates left and I find your play to be altogether scummier than Dunn's, and it also looks to me like if you are scum, you are trying a lot harder to

win the game

than a hypothetical scum!Dunn is.

If you are town, and you were to know for a fact that I am town, who would you be looking at here? Because from where I'm sitting Bingle and marci were your only real scumreads yesterday, you haven't committed to any other scumreads today besides arguing with me saying I must be scum because you don't like my case on you, and yet you won't even commit to solid townreads elsewhere to help yourself POE. Part of my goal is to make sure you can't possibly avoid my potential flip today with any semblance of town credit because I see scum!you as the biggest potential threat in this game and I've played very hard to try to ensure that scum!you won't win. If you're really town and I'm flipped today you should have no shot to live through endgame and that means effectively one more chance to identify scum. and I really don't see you caring about that at all, it has felt to me like your priority is to win a 1v1 and survive today.

Ok, sure.

My ranking would be
Hopkirk
Marci
Lukewarm
Dunn

Marci and lukewarm are fairly close.

I think the people who look the best from their interactions with Bingle yesterday are Hopkirk and Lukewarm.
I think they both said pretty genuine-sounding things at EoD yesterday that are pretty unlikely to come from being partners with bingle. Marci was the only person other than myself and the small pool who actually voted bingle at EoD, which is good but not clearing, but better than Dunn. I think hopkirk has sounded much better than lukewarm overall, because there have been a bunch of things lukewarm has said that I've thought have been suspicious that I've commented on, but with hopkirk there really haven't been. I think lukewarm has also sounded pretty towny at times, namely his bingle posts at eod and a stretch of posts where he was responding to someone's (hopkirk's?) case against him. I think Dunn has done essentially nothing towny for the entire game and he'd pretty easily be my top scum of those four. I also think Marci has not actually sounded towny at pretty much any point this game but I do put a lot of weight in the pool meta stuff given how much bingle cared about it last game.

[Vanderscamp]

basically what I need is an explanation of who is Bingle's partner if it's not you. I really can't see Hopkirk at all. Marcistar would be an incredibly brave choice to put in the 6p. Lukewarm felt to me genuinely uninformed about Bingle's alignment and I think Bingle worked to pocket Lukewarm rather than save a buddy. So if it's not you then it's Dunn, and maybe we're eating ourselves up and ignoring the low WIM scum just coasting, but you haven't seemed interested in looking there at all and it's not clear to me why, especially given how cagey you've generally been with townreads.

I haven't been interested because I think you are scummier than Dunn.
Even if I am wrong and I'm misjudging you it should be pretty clear that that's the reason.

[Vanderscamp]

Is this a troll?

also, this is a really thoughtless response/accusation

like, if I'm scum, then these would be the best arguments that I believe I can make, and I would believe that pushing them will get you flipped without making me more likely to be flipped once you are miseliminated.

if I'm town, even if you think I'm bad/dumb town, then it's a genuine push and I'm not trolling.

in either universe, there's not really any world where I'm trolling. so what exactly are you suggesting here? You're just insulting me to discredit my arguments to try to make yourself look better, instead of actually sussing out whether you think it's AI or explaining why scum!me is making these points or even why they are wrong

and this is not an invitation to keep arguing with me, cause I don't think it's productive at this point

I thought it was pretty likely you weren't trolling, I just had no intention of trying to explain yet again that I was not against the notion of killing into the 6p pool.

[Vanderscamp]

We need to reach some form of consensus

you can't just say this while not putting any opinions down

100% agree

I'd be ok with killing dunn today

[Vanderscamp]

I don't know what to do to help improve town's chances if no one is really engaging with me other than Vander. Lukewarm do you really not find any of my points against him convincing at all?

Can you walk me through how you think scum in the 6p should play this game, especially if you don't see Vanders as scummy? You were thinking on D1 about how Bingle's play didn't make sense pushing eliminations off of marcistar and yourself, yet it doesn't feel like I can get you to think at all about how Vanders' play makes sense attempting to solidify towncred from scumreading and ultimately bussing his buddy. The fact that he said today that he "pushed Bingle hard" (do you agree that he did?) is also evidence for this. It's why I think he has far more scum equity than Dunn, Dunn isn't trying to survive at all or set himself up to endgame.

It's funny you say this; this last part was exactly my read on Pooky last game for the first half of the game (it was wrong)

[Vanderscamp]

I actually really don't like this point. Because in the context of the post, he was actively examing the interactions between me and marci, and running through the possibilities of that interaction, and then dismissed the possibility of s/s himself. The fact that he never suggested it in the thread makes me not suspicious for him over this. Once again, I see no reason to TR him for this, but it does not strike me as suspicious

I think I just wanna clarify this point, otherwise I find your post fair enough.

The argument I'm making is that he should have

already known

just from thinking about the game and playing from a town perspective, that marci/Luke cannot be a S-S interaction. I think it's far less likely that a townie wouldn't already have this in mind when reading two players in the same pool talking to each other. I'm basing this on my own mindset playing the game - once I internalized who was in each pool at gamestart, I have been intentionally reading every interaction across-pool with potential associatives in mind, and within-pool differently specifically

because

they could only be T-T or T-S. I even mentioned this in one of my own posts 273.

So when he says,

Was going to say it didn't feel like a S/S interaction from them before I

remembered

that isn't possible anyway.

it registers on my bullshit radar. A townie should not have 'forgotten' that it was impossible. I can't grok or empathize with that at all.

To me, this feels like scum making things up to simulate a fictional thought process. I don't buy it as an authentic one. I find it remarkably hard to imagine that town!Vanderscamp was reading conversation between two players in the same pool and not already aware that it cannot be a S-S interaction.

Have you at any point this game "forgotten" who was in each pool and who could or couldn't be potentially aligned?

I gave what I feel is an equivalent example earlier:
Imagine you're getting caught up with the thread after a flip, and you read a post by a dead player.
You gain a read on something that player said, and then you realize that that player is actually dead.
I've done this both when I was fully aware at the start of the post that that player was dead, and also when I wasn't.
I might have phrased it poorly but that was the sentiment I was trying to convey.

Do you think that that example is different somehow, or is this something that has never happened to you?

[SirCakez]

Prodding Hopkirk

[marcistar]

maybe i shouldnt be townreading guiltylions
idk who would be the best to eliminate today, i thought dunnstral would pick it up more but hes not

[GuiltyLion]

I just don't understand why scum!Dunn would be playing so lackadaisically, it's been a long time since I've seen scum!Dunn and I think the past few times I did play with him as scum he was in a hydra, but this is just super lazy play if he is scum here. Do you all think he really just says he's "unsure" about Bingle (in my convo with him in the hood) and nothing more if he's buddies?

I do think in a vacuum, Dunn or Hopkirk would be most likely 6p scum with Bingle 3p scum by pool-spec, and I still think Hopkirk is locktown. But that's about the best point I would have for scum!Dunn, and I'm always gonna be more paranoid about the players that seem like they're explicitly trying to stay alive

[GuiltyLion]

Do you think that that example is different somehow, or is this something that has never happened to you?

yah I don't know if I've ever read posts without checking and knowing who has been flipped already, when I'm playing as either alignment. so I guess I just don't empathize with you here

[GuiltyLion]

I'm skimmin' Vanders' past games and continuing to feel validated in this scumread, his towngames feel more involved and insightful than what he's given us here (and what he's contributed D2 has really only ever been under direct fire from me). He also clearly has extensive mafia history, claiming 500-600 games played, which removes any poolspec concerns about Bingle putting a 'newbie' in 6p.

As long as he gets flipped at some point this game I think we win. Y'all can ignore me and vote myself or Dunn instead today but I don't see myself wanting to vote elsewhere, and I will expect you to atone for bad votes and sheep my read if I'm flipped first. Do not let him live through any F3.

[GuiltyLion]

This is by no means a slam-dunk scum tell but I also did notice in his past scumgame, he made a very similar post to one he made in this game:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12647731

I'm not getting anything from the flea/mena discussion

Also of importance is that Mena was his scumbuddy here.

What do we see in this game?

I got nothing at all out of the bingle/hopkirk exchange

have not found a similar post in his town ISOs yet, claiming to receive nothing useful out of other players arguing/discussing, but I haven't done a full deep dive.

[marcistar]

but this is just super lazy play if he is scum here. Do you all think he really just says he's "unsure" about Bingle (in my convo with him in the hood) and nothing more if he's buddies?

I do think in a vacuum, Dunn or Hopkirk would be most likely 6p scum with Bingle 3p scum by pool-spec, and I still think Hopkirk is locktown. But that's about the best point I would have for scum!Dunn, and I'm always gonna be more paranoid about the players that seem like they're explicitly trying to stay alive

im not really sure if dunnstrals scum but i want him to come carry or else ill keep worrying about him


848 im so confused.. do u think he would do that when hes done it before.. wouldnt that be too obvious?

VOTE: vanderscamp
i think this is the one ill feel bestest about but im not 100% confident sadly