Mini Normal 2211 || Summer Meet [Endgame]

[T3]

I think osuka and lemons are both town.

[Cook]

...

[geraintm]

So, to make sure i know what has been claimed overnight,
the only one i know of is Osuka has claimed Rolestropper and targetted lemons. is that right?

Post 1123 hammered bugspray. As such, no further votes were counted.

final VC, Day One

Bugspray (7) [HAMMER]: Dunnstral, T3, Umlaut, Anya, humaneatingmonkey, Ivyeo, Geraintm

Dunnstral (3): VFP, Egix96, bugspray
humaneatingmonkey (2): InsidiousLemons, osuka

With 12 alive it takes 7 to eliminate or 6 to no-eliminate.

Ok so this was the vote count on the flip

GOing to go and look at the votes and see what i think of them.

VOTE: bugspray

less spraying and more voting this canister doesn't feel organic to me

VOTE: bugspray
felt like a feeling vote

VOTE: bugspray

actually on and off a bunch of times.

I don't scumread bugspray but I also didn't like Anya's vote. I think a town/scumflip would give us more info. VOTE: bug

This vote stinks. their jump to Bugspray makes literally no sense at all.
fiiine reading over the cannister they're 10% hit and 90% miss

VOTE: bugspray

that's a litte random.

I really can't imagine a setup where scum is informed that every single PR has a private topic. Well, I can imagine it but it would be such a terrible setup that I'm rejecting it out of hand. So HEM can't possibly be "slipping" something if it isn't actually true. I don't think we can read into that one way or the other.

VOTE: bugspray for the sake of being contrarian, on balance I have a gut feeling Dunn flips green in which case we learn pretty much nothing from his death whereas (1) I don't have a similar feeling with bugspray and (2) even if town at least they've generated enough associatives that we get usable information from the flip. I considered going back to HEM but he's towned up quite a bit IMO

again, this feels an odd vote. little force behind it, just again more of a feeling vote and wanting to not be elsewhere with their vote.

Okay let's go. It's less than 3 days before deadline and we haven't really locked into 2 wagons yet. Let's put this game into gear 2. VOTE: bugspray

This doesn't mean I'm done tonight. I'm still trying to put together some thoughts.

this was human eating monkeys first vote. it again feels like a vote without much behind it, it is just to get the boat moving.
there was a lot of voting elsehwere after this, on osuka and dunnstral

i can vote bugs here, Umlaut. But we need 3 more.

later had this post

Anya, Ivyeo, VFP, Egix96, who wants to bumrush bugspray?

and this
then got into a weird argument with people

Bugspray (3): Dunnstral, T3, Umlaut, (humaneatingmonkey), (Ivyeo), (Anya),
ONE MORE for the bumrush.

Let's switch wagons now.
VOTE: bugspray

and that was the vote.
i dunno, felt like they were mid wagon votes and trying to get more people onto the Bugspray wagon. either they are one of the towniest people in the game, or one of the daftest scum because i don't think - as scum - they needed to pushtheir partner so much.

VOTE: Bugspray

Ivy's vote, late on when it was clear momentum for Bug was there.

My vote was last.

THoughts:

This felt like a fluke. Bugspray shouldn't have got themselves eliminated, i dont think they ever did anything especially obvious. but once the wagon got rolling it seemed unstoppable.
People on the wagon whose votes i am not a fan of

Ivy's - their post 1028 is calling for an elimiantion between Dunn, Lemons and Me
759 was a defence of Bugspray
227 had bugspray as locktown

just makes me antsy

that's about it really. the rest are all wishy enough that i can't say any look bad, and i'll give the edge to Anya and Humaneatingmonkey as the towniest people

[Egix96]

I think osuka and lemons are both town.

What changed your mind about Lemons?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Bugspray shouldn't have got themselves eliminated, i dont think they ever did anything especially obvious. but once the wagon got rolling it seemed unstoppable.

this is not a true statement. bugs was the crowd favorite before Dunn

[Umlaut]

I don't scumread bugspray but I also didn't like Anya's vote. I think a town/scumflip would give us more info. VOTE: bug

I don't think I properly appreciated what a weird post+vote this was until gerain quoted it. But it's a really weird post+vote! Like, if you were asked to fill in the blank here:

• I don't scumread bugspray
  
• I don't like Anya's vote for bugspray
  
• So I will vote for ______

how do you ever fill that blank with "bugspray"?

I don't know what to make of this, right now I'm filing it in "weird move for town but also a weird move for scum," but I'd like it if T3 could comment on just what was going on in their head here.

People on the wagon whose votes i am not a fan of

Ivy's - their post 1028 is calling for an elimiantion between Dunn, Lemons and Me
759 was a defence of Bugspray
227 had bugspray as locktown

just makes me antsy

Okay, it might be surprising but what's the scum motivation? Why would scum!Ivy who is calling for an elimination between Dunn, Lemons and you suddenly flip around and agree to vote their buddy bugspray? It seems more like a towntell to me, I can see scum!Ivy voting Bugs if she's trying to keep up appearances but her progression doesn't match that at all.

[Anya]

it looks so bad that it probably means t4 is town

i will now be calling him town4

[humaneatingmonkey]

If osuka flips TPR, we lynch Lemons.

Town!Lemons will never be the NK if he'll be in the chopping block today and a push for his lynch can be pulled off today. We had much more townier folks that came out of Day 1 from bugs lynch.

I think the explanation is that Lemons is the one who performed the NK.

If osuka flips scum, I won't be surprised. He didn't crumb. Yesterday's play was atrocious and points to scum. Today's play was atrocious and points to scum. His PR strategy did not make any bit of sense, and he doesn't even have a full grasp of who he did the night action on.

And then, we consider if we still want to lynch Lemons or anyone else.

This is the ending of this day.

This is still true

[Anya]

two things are hard to believe from a town osuka rolestopper

protecting apples

and still thinking monkey is wolf

they both completely ignore the events of yesterday's lan party and the reveal of bugspray's true colours

[humaneatingmonkey]

Anya, what do you think of VFP's case on Umlaut?

[Umlaut]

i do get it, or at least i get what you're going for. i believe that you didn't mix up rolestopper and roleblocker at the time of your claim, sure. what i'm saying is that i think you forgot the specific function of your night action

at the time that you outed your target

, because you had a narrative in mind that you wanted to construct -- one which incriminates hem, and which implicates me when you flip scum. convenient.

when you send in your night action, you specifically target

one person

, and yes i do find it kind of hard to believe that you would forget who that one specific person was. i think hem was what slipped out because he was on your mind, because even though he wasn't your "target",

your action was more about harming hem than protecting me.

i think town!osuka would have been markedly less likely to make this mistake.

there is never going to be a way to prove conclusively whether you would or would not have made this mistake as town. but as i've said, flipping your slot is going to give us a lot of information either way. if you flip red, great. and even if you flip green, that

still

gives us a solid lead on hem and provides us with a frame of reference for what other PRs are more or less likely to coexist in the same game.

and lastly, why does it even have to be hem who shot at me? if the aim is simply to incriminate you and kill two birds with one stone, wouldn't

any

scum seize the same opportunity?

I actually think Lemons is on to something. It seems like Osuka is caught in a contradiction here.

• He first says he "rolestopped HEM" but let's assume he really did mean to say he rolestopped Lemons.
  
• Then he says the fact that there was no kill incriminates HEM, to the point where he
  instantly
  regarded HEM as caught scum this morning and cited his action as the reason, as if it were so conclusive that no more explanation need be given
  
• And says "I rolestopped [Lemons] so that HEM couldn't kill [them]"
  
• But then he says "i didnt do it to incriminate hem. the fact that there was _no_ kill at all is what incriminates him, and that's just a consequence of me having protected [Lemons] because i thought [they] could be a target."

I can't formulate a coherent state of mind for a town!Osuka to have had last night going into the start of this day, where all of these statements can be genuine. If Osuka rolestopped Lemons out of a belief they were the likely kill choice for

any

scumteam, then he should have expected to stop a kill and should not think it implicates HEM specifically. He absolutely should not think that "at first" as he says in 1350 that he did. Conversely, if Osuka rolestopped Lemons specifically because he thought

HEM

would target them, and also thought HEM was scum, he should know that's what he did and shouldn't be making a post like 1350 in the first place, where he tries to argue Lemons was a justified rolestop regardless of the team.

I think the error of saying "I rolestopped HEM" reveals that Osuka's mind was more on HEM than it is on Lemons, and so the explanation that he did not initially set out to implicate HEM is phony.

[Umlaut]

Anya, what do you think of VFP's case on Umlaut?

I'll let Anya answer this but I think it's generous of you to describe VFP's posts about me as a "case"

[humaneatingmonkey]

Let me know if you guys are ready to flashlynch osuka, I'll be in my jungle

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'll let Anya answer this but I think it's generous of you to describe VFP's posts about me as a "case"

Please answer it as well

[Anya]

Anya, what do you think of VFP's case on Umlaut?

not buying it

raccoon's town in my books as long as that smile stays strong

yeah i don't really see a briefcase from them more that your push

could

come from a wolf and you haven't been towny in other parts of the village

but you have

[Umlaut]

You want me to answer whether I think VFP's case against me is good?

I don't

[humaneatingmonkey]

Do you think it's scum-motivated or town-motivated?

[Umlaut]

It seems scum-motivated to me, particularly because VFP's reactions to questioning on that read seem more aimed at

defending their right to think I'm scum

than they do at

convincing anyone I'm scum

. Look at e.g. 1208: all the arguments there are arguments that I

could possibly

be scum

despite

how the end of yesterday went down. They're not arguments that I'm very likely, or even more likely than random, to be scum. They're particularly not arguments that would ever convince someone not already inclined to scumread me. And the repeated "Why is he town besides the Bugs vote?" is rather what-have-the-Romans-ever-done-for-us.

[humaneatingmonkey]

so we agree? it's osuka > VFP?

[Ivyeo]

VFP to me feels like they're trying to get ready for later executions that may end up hitting a towny, rather than actively looking for scum in the moment

[InsidiousLemons]

1377 is such a weird post from gerain. the formatting is kind of fucked up but i can still mostly read it, so sorry if i get some of this wrong.

he criticizes pretty much everyone's votes -- anya most heavily, it looks like, saying things like "this vote stinks" and accusing her of flip flopping, and yet at the end of the post he includes her as one of the top two towniest people. then he starts off a sentence with "People on the wagon whose votes i am not a fan of", but only mentions ivy. huh? the only explanation i can think of for this is that he was

trying

to find more people to cast shade on, but realized after looking back over his post and the general opinion that he was only really going to be able to get away with doing it to ivy.

he also for some reason comes to the conclusion that the bugspray lim was a fluke that no one really wanted to happen, which as hem points out, is demonstrably false. even by the end of the day, bugs was only ever 2nd or 3rd in line for a lim.

this post reads like he was 1) posting to post, 2) looking for people to push (before coming up short), and/or 3) trying to take towncred away from the people on the bugs wagon via his "bugs lim was a fluke" argument. other than this fallacious statement, and his ultimately toothless criticism of a couple of people's votes, he only really comes up with conclusions that others have already stated pages and pages ago.

gerain, can you shed some light on this? what was the point you were trying to make with that post?

[InsidiousLemons]

it looks so bad that it probably means t4 is town

i will now be calling him town4

this is kind of what i'm leaning towards re:1380 as well. t3 also has negative equity with bugs so i don't really think there's much here

[InsidiousLemons]

1385 builds on my own points so well that i really don't think there's anything that could convince me that osuka isn't scum here. i still kind of want to wait for him to get back in here for a last hurrah, but his "re-evaluation" is more than likely just an attempt to buy himself the time to figure out if there's any scenario in which he isn't absolutely fucked

[InsidiousLemons]

another votecount placeholder

yes both of them will get filled

hi can you please get around to this, and also stop waiting multiple hours to replace placeholders? votecounts are useful in retrospect but they're most useful as a way to track the gamestate as it's happening. i genuinely don't mean this with any hostility, it's just very hard to play this game when we almost never know the current votecount with certainty.

[Ivyeo]

Ivy's vote, late on when it was clear momentum for Bug was there.
(snip)
Ivy's - their post 1028 is calling for an elimiantion between Dunn, Lemons and Me
759 was a defence of Bugspray
227 had bugspray as locktown

This ignores the fact that when it was brought up, I said that I would be in favor of a Bugs elim, but was keeping my vote because it was near deadline. Of course I'm going to wait until it's clear my vote isn't splitting town before moving it.
(Bugs was also on the scum side of my readslist fwiw)