Mini Normal 2211 || Summer Meet [Endgame]

[InsidiousLemons]

okay i think we can safely disregard Dunn's point about bugs being on his wagon then because 880 could easily just be distancing

again - that's a shit way to distance myself from that slot. if i wanted to do it, first i wouldve done it myself, and second i wouldve done it much earlier

i don't think it's your way of distancing yourself from bugspray, i think it was bugspray's way of distancing themself from you. agreed that it's kind of a shit way to go about doing that, but given what we've seen from bugs otherwise, i wouldn't be surprised.

[osuka]

okay that's fine - we're saying dunnstral-osuka is not a strong associative. assuming i'm scum, doesn't that make him likely to be town?

if so - why wouldn't i put my vote behind the dunn wagon if i felt the game shifting towards a bugspray lynch? i'd rather have blood on my hands than a dead scum partner, because then in the absolute worst case (bugspray lynched d2) we've gained an extra day. how do you justify me not doing that? it makes zero sense to keep tunneling hem because his wagon was already really unlikely compared to dunn and bugspray, _and_ that was before it really was a choice between dunnstral and bugspray

[InsidiousLemons]

side note: have any of you fucks asked yourselves how it is that you're so convinced i'm scum but there's been nearly zero resistance other than my own to the wagon that's been going on since the beginning of the game? if you're saying i'm being hardbussed right now that's somewhat understandable, even if very questionable because as scum you're fucked if d1 and d2 both flip red - but if you're saying i was being hardbussed on page 20, you're out of your fucking mind

- VFP is resistant to your wagon
- dunnstral is resistant to your wagon, and was on D1 as well
- bugspray was resistant to your wagon after the claim, and looking back, this is kind of overt distancing lol:

VOTE: unvote urgh unfortunately dunn is right here
my dislike for osuka is personal and i would love to see this slot yeeted regardless of alignment with no regard to how town would be more informed by the flip or the utility of a rolestopper but argh

do i have to mention the fact that one of these players is confscum and the other two are the ones who i've said multiple times are the most likely to be your partner? there's probably only one scum left, so yeah, it makes sense that there would only be mild resistance to your elimination at this point.

[InsidiousLemons]

okay that's fine - we're saying dunnstral-osuka is not a strong associative. assuming i'm scum, doesn't that make him likely to be town?

if so - why wouldn't i put my vote behind the dunn wagon if i felt the game shifting towards a bugspray lynch? i'd rather have blood on my hands than a dead scum partner, because then in the absolute worst case (bugspray lynched d2) we've gained an extra day. how do you justify me not doing that? it makes zero sense to keep tunneling hem because his wagon was already really unlikely compared to dunn and bugspray, _and_ that was before it really was a choice between dunnstral and bugspray

i believe you'd rather have blood on your hands than a dead scumpartner. what i

don't

believe is that you thought that was the choice you were faced with. what in the posts leading up to your disappearance that made you "[feel] the game shifting towards a bugspray [lim]"? it's pretty clear to me that the general order of preference at that point was dunnstral > bug based on these posts from a few pages before the hem scumslip debacle, among others:

You guys wanna do Dunn?

I'm also game for Egix, but I still need to reevaluate him

Dunn I'm okay with voting. If Osuka is scum I could see Dunn being their buddy.
If my vote is wasted on Ivy I'll move it but I just feel like this isn't a bad spot to push.

To be fair, my not lim pool is only really you, Anya, Lemons, T3, Gera, and Osuka today.

i could go for dunn but with umlaut maybe getting off of v/la today i want to use as much of the 22 hours we have left as possible. if we hit 12 hours with no further content from ivy/umlaut/dunn etc then i'll compromise on the dunn lim

ps cook deadline countdowns in your VCs are great too kiss kiss mwah thank you

VOTE: dunnstral

[Dunnstral]

i do get it, or at least i get what you're going for. i believe that you didn't mix up rolestopper and roleblocker at the time of your claim, sure. what i'm saying is that i think you forgot the specific function of your night action

at the time that you outed your target

, because you had a narrative in mind that you wanted to construct -- one which incriminates hem, and which implicates me when you flip scum. convenient.

when you send in your night action, you specifically target

one person

, and yes i do find it kind of hard to believe that you would forget who that one specific person was. i think hem was what slipped out because he was on your mind, because even though he wasn't your "target",

your action was more about harming hem than protecting me.

i think town!osuka would have been markedly less likely to make this mistake.

there is never going to be a way to prove conclusively whether you would or would not have made this mistake as town. but as i've said, flipping your slot is going to give us a lot of information either way. if you flip red, great. and even if you flip green, that

still

gives us a solid lead on hem and provides us with a frame of reference for what other PRs are more or less likely to coexist in the same game.

and lastly, why does it even have to be hem who shot at me? if the aim is simply to incriminate you and kill two birds with one stone, wouldn't

any

scum seize the same opportunity?

I actually think Lemons is on to something. It seems like Osuka is caught in a contradiction here.

• He first says he "rolestopped HEM" but let's assume he really did mean to say he rolestopped Lemons.
  
• Then he says the fact that there was no kill incriminates HEM, to the point where he
  instantly
  regarded HEM as caught scum this morning and cited his action as the reason, as if it were so conclusive that no more explanation need be given
  
• And says "I rolestopped [Lemons] so that HEM couldn't kill [them]"
  
• But then he says "i didnt do it to incriminate hem. the fact that there was _no_ kill at all is what incriminates him, and that's just a consequence of me having protected [Lemons] because i thought [they] could be a target."

I can't formulate a coherent state of mind for a town!Osuka to have had last night going into the start of this day, where all of these statements can be genuine. If Osuka rolestopped Lemons out of a belief they were the likely kill choice for

any

scumteam, then he should have expected to stop a kill and should not think it implicates HEM specifically. He absolutely should not think that "at first" as he says in 1350 that he did. Conversely, if Osuka rolestopped Lemons specifically because he thought

HEM

would target them, and also thought HEM was scum, he should know that's what he did and shouldn't be making a post like 1350 in the first place, where he tries to argue Lemons was a justified rolestop regardless of the team.

I think the error of saying "I rolestopped HEM" reveals that Osuka's mind was more on HEM than it is on Lemons, and so the explanation that he did not initially set out to implicate HEM is phony.

Here is my understanding of it:

Osuka thinks that HEM is going to night kill Lemons

Osuka rolestops Lemons

He thinks the no kill implicates HEM, and he slips up what he is trying to say

Voting Osuka would be a mistake here: The wagon state from yesterday and their currently uncc'd claim and nightkill prevention are all reasons not to vote for them. Voting lemons would be a mistake for similar reasons.

[InsidiousLemons]

votecount #7, day one

Osuka (6) [E-1]: bugspray, Ivyeo, Insidious, VFP, geraintm, humaneatingmonkey

geraintm (1): Umlaut
InsidiousLemons (1): Egix96
bugspray (3): Anya, T3, Dunnstral
humaneatingmonkey (1): osuka

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to flip.
(expired on 2021-05-23 09:33:00) until deadline.

i have to concede this is pushing it though. if you're partners with bugs and VFP i don't really see them both being such early adopters. hm.

[InsidiousLemons]

okay that's fine - we're saying dunnstral-osuka is not a strong associative. assuming i'm scum, doesn't that make him likely to be town?

yeah, this goes against my earlier theory that there is partner equity between you and dunn. i have said for a while that i think VFP is much more likely, but see above.

@everyone if osuka + vfp are scum here do we really think the votecount i quoted above is a possibility? and if the answer is no and VFP is town, then osuka's point about there being little resistance to his wagon is a fair one.

[InsidiousLemons]

mmm actually no dunn can still be your partner here. just because it isn't a strong associative in a scum direction doesn't mean it is a strong associative in a town direction. if a dunn lim wasn't looking preventable and the alternative was your other partner (bugspray), then sticking with the hem vote makes sense. if questioned about why you weren't on the dunn wagon, you could counter that you said you'd vote him and only didn't do so because you weren't in the thread when he got close to a lim.

not saying this is definitely what happened, but i don't think you not voting dunn makes him town automatically

[InsidiousLemons]

yeah i'm still totally fine with an osuka lim here. VFP being on osuka's E-1 wagon on D1 gives him more negative equity, and if that makes the scumteam bugs-osuka-dunn (not sure yet), then that resolves this:

it makes zero sense to keep tunneling hem because his wagon was already really unlikely compared to dunn and bugspray

[InsidiousLemons]

i would like to hold off on osuka's elimination until after he reevaluates, because even a fake reevaluation will give us more info to go on after the flip. agreed?

assume i'm scum - why does anything i say hold weight? can you even take anything said by scum at face value?

i dunno man, you're saying lots of shit right now that will be valuable information either way. even if we can't take it at face value (although we

can

attempt to sift through the bullshit after the fact if you flip red), we can have the types of conversations we're having now, which is actively working towards a gamesolve.

[InsidiousLemons]

i think my solve now is actually leaning towards osuka > dunnstral.

- vfp is starting to make less sense to me for reasons stated above (voting with osuka atm -equity, voting with bugs

for

osuka yesterday ---equity)
- dunn keeps only coming in here to defend osuka (though he tries to throw me a bone with an impotent "voting lemons would be a mistake" -- no one is actively pushing me for a lim right now)
- osuka softpushed dunnstral in that he added his vocal support, but avoided voting for either him or bugspray

i might've said more on the subject previously but this is off the top of my head. am i wearing tinfoil or does this solve actually make pretty good sense?

[osuka]

i would like to hold off on osuka's elimination until after he reevaluates, because even a fake reevaluation will give us more info to go on after the flip. agreed?

assume i'm scum - why does anything i say hold weight? can you even take anything said by scum at face value?

i dunno man, you're saying lots of shit right now that will be valuable information either way. even if we can't take it at face value (although we

can

attempt to sift through the bullshit after the fact if you flip red), we can have the types of conversations we're having now, which is actively working towards a gamesolve.

here's a follow-up question: why would scum osuka be working towards a gamesolve? if i flip red, how do you know anything i say wasn't meant to throw you off?

[osuka]

okay that's fine - we're saying dunnstral-osuka is not a strong associative. assuming i'm scum, doesn't that make him likely to be town?

yeah, this goes against my earlier theory that there is partner equity between you and dunn. i have said for a while that i think VFP is much more likely, but see above.

@everyone if osuka + vfp are scum here do we really think the votecount i quoted above is a possibility? and if the answer is no and VFP is town, then osuka's point about there being little resistance to his wagon is a fair one.

if you think vfp is more likely then let's flip vfp

for the record i think he's probably going to flip green but i _know_ i'm going to flip green so really for me he is infinitely more likely to be scum

[osuka]

mmm actually no dunn can still be your partner here. just because it isn't a strong associative in a scum direction doesn't mean it is a strong associative in a town direction. if a dunn lim wasn't looking preventable and the alternative was your other partner (bugspray), then sticking with the hem vote makes sense. if questioned about why you weren't on the dunn wagon, you could counter that you said you'd vote him and only didn't do so because you weren't in the thread when he got close to a lim.

not saying this is definitely what happened, but i don't think you not voting dunn makes him town automatically

i kind of was on the thread when we were very close to a dunnstral exec though. my last post, when i voted hem, was when dunn was at e-3, and only hours later he was at e-1 - can you really imagine a universe where that exec _doesn't_ go through if my vote is on there?

[osuka]

there was some resistance to the hem wagon that was just not there with dunnstral. i voted and immediately after two more votes came along, which is almost exactly what happened with dunn (one vote came and another immediately followed). that shows two things: 1, it would be stupid for me, as scum, to not shift to dunnstral (if town), and 2, that may indicate that the dunnstral wagon actually had scum on it

[osuka]

so for that reason alone i'm somewhat inclined to believe that dunnstral may be town. the only reason that slot is still alive is because of the bugspray flashtrain

[InsidiousLemons]

there was some resistance to the hem wagon that was just not there with dunnstral. i voted and immediately after two more votes came along, which is almost exactly what happened with dunn (one vote came and another immediately followed).

am i misreading? these two statements seem at odds with each other.

[osuka]

i meant afterwards. two votes came immediately but then everyone else refused to execute that slot - dunnstral's, on the other hand, was still on most peoples list of options up until we flipped bugspray

[InsidiousLemons]

the resistance to hem's wagon came because it was a piss-poor push, which you yourself already admitted in 1411. as for the lack thereof on dunn's wagon, we were coming up against the deadline and were scrambling to prevent a no-lim. it's probable there was scum on the wagon if dunn is town (bugspray accounts for 1 already), but i'm not convinced he is and at this point we're getting ahead of ourselves. we need your flip to start clearing the wifom.

i would like to hold off on osuka's elimination until after he reevaluates, because even a fake reevaluation will give us more info to go on after the flip. agreed?

assume i'm scum - why does anything i say hold weight? can you even take anything said by scum at face value?

i dunno man, you're saying lots of shit right now that will be valuable information either way. even if we can't take it at face value (although we

can

attempt to sift through the bullshit after the fact if you flip red), we can have the types of conversations we're having now, which is actively working towards a gamesolve.

here's a follow-up question: why would scum osuka be working towards a gamesolve? if i flip red, how do you know anything i say wasn't meant to throw you off?

you're... not, really. you're asking socratic questions to try to shake my confidence in you flipping scum, and it's backfiring because i'm actually bothering to analyze what you're saying. you keep raising this point about the possibility of you being scum who's trying to throw me off (which is exactly what i think you are), and it feels like you trying to sow seeds of doubt in the conclusions i'm making now for when you do flip red.

i think i've gotten as much as i'm going to out of this 1v1. anything more would just be polluting the thread. i'm ready to flip this now

[InsidiousLemons]

okay that's fine - we're saying dunnstral-osuka is not a strong associative. assuming i'm scum, doesn't that make him likely to be town?

yeah, this goes against my earlier theory that there is partner equity between you and dunn. i have said for a while that i think VFP is much more likely, but see above.

@everyone if osuka + vfp are scum here do we really think the votecount i quoted above is a possibility? and if the answer is no and VFP is town, then osuka's point about there being little resistance to his wagon is a fair one.

if you think vfp is more likely then let's flip vfp

for the record i think he's probably going to flip green but i _know_ i'm going to flip green so really for me he is infinitely more likely to be scum

this is just sad

[Umlaut]

Dunnstral, if you think Osuka is a mistake then make another suggestion.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Yeah Dunn I wanna hear your suggestion

[humaneatingmonkey]

Intent to hammer

[Dunnstral]

My suggestion is to vote out VFP; they started out voting t3 by themself, then moved onto the osuka wagon which went to e-1, then moved to my wagon which went to e-1, but never joined the bugspray wagon.

Today, they don't have that much to say around the osuka wagon other than they think it could be town, or much to say at all while it's looking like osuka will be hammered without their input

VOTE: VFP

[humaneatingmonkey]

Okay thank you Dunn VOTE: osuka