Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[Dunnstral]

If it is not marci then I don't really know

[marcistar]

hold up! ^.^

[Lukewarm]

Honestly, I would rather be wrong then for this day to keep dragging on this way. Can we either hammer, or someone please come post a mind blowing 10 post long new case for us to all ooh and ahh over?

Spoiler:

At this point I wonder if scum might be dragging it out to kill town's will to play

[Lukewarm]

hold up! ^.^

Are you coming to make a mind blowing 10 post long new case for us to all ooh and ahh over?!?

[marcistar]

luke shush lemme atleast post my post im typing rn before getting hammered

idk if its complete yet tho but im trying!!

its not 10 post long case, but its some things i find interesting, though it probably isnt much!! but i want to at least throw it to yall

[Lukewarm]

UNVOTE:

You have time to get it out here

[marcistar]

Who do you think could be scum, you have good reads so please share if you're town

i dont think my reads are anything special ever not really the most confident in my reads rn, this games too hard ;-;

i think

dunnstrals

more likely to be town than not. yeah hes inactive, but nothing hes done is really eyebrow raising. so i wouldn't really look at him.

vanderscamp,

is obviously who i think is really scummy as of right now.. but, i cant tell if it'll flip as well as i've been praying he would. as the games progressed, i've gotten more of a feel for him, so the gap between him and guiltylions isnt really that big in my opinion. my read on him is mostly just, the vibes that everyone else is town, and i like guiltylions reasoning.

but what made me pause today-phase, and think quite a bit is;
at a certain point everyone believed it was vanderscamp/dunnstral (from what i understand) at that point, it felt quite a bit easy, didn't it..? in pov it did at least, thats what really caused me to be confused.
even though i

think

guiltylions

is town, its quite easy for me to doubt him right now.. if vanderscamp is town, i think guiltylions would be most possible when i first started getting this feeling, was when i was reading bingles posts (its dumb, but what stuck out was his lack of mentioning guiltylions (tho that could easily be explained by guiltylions being mostly absent, is still was quite interesting to think of and just something i wanted to take note of ) i believe, i thought this originally around the time i was a bit flip floping around).
whats more weighing on my mind than the above tho, is actually his positioning rn. i dont expect yall to see it since yall dont know my alignment yet but like hes not confident in me being scum at all,

I'm tired and don't have time to lay out the explanation of things in marci's ISO I didn't like on reread but I can post that tomorrow.

meh I just went through marci's ISO again and I feel like it's not really fundamentally scummy other than

(this follow through, a bit weird for one.)

I'm having a hard time truly finding this scummy because my attitude towards EOD1 was much the same, which is also kinda why I had her just shelved as a townread. But it's not inherently townie either because whoever is scum with Bingle would want to start disassociating by this point, so I think it's mistake to rule out potential buddy behavior on that front.

(bit over the place)

I'm in no way against hammering her here,

didn't originally think about the brackets there, but as i read it a few more times it feels relevantish. these posts, just like... the wording and aura of not really being confident. such an easy thing to use if your defense once theres a townie flip if everyone looks at you next. easily, he could be just trying to get the most miselims as possible, while not being quite too obvious is what im thinking from those posts.
(last second thoughts before sending this out; being not confident in something isnt really scummy.. but the way hes doing it, seems like that we arent seeing the whole story.)
i know at least for me, i either wanna vote people im confident in, or a vote which will help the game more... quite curious to see what he would do after my flip.. go for another easy elim? looks like most people think that if its not me they dont know what to do, wonder if its the same for him

wow.. but whats making me confused now is that
my case for vanderscamp is just too weak compared to this i feel. (vanderscamp = guiltylions > lukewarm is my solve. the vanderscamp = guiltylions, slightly theres a difference between them in my brain, but not too much. lukewarms just the ranking of the vibes list )
i could easily be wrong, but my main vibes say that it feels a bit too easy earlier before i was getting hella sused.
i wouldn't be surprised if ive been wrongly reading guiltylions is what im trying to say ahah

my urges after typing this say unvote, but idk which ones bigger priority.

Spoiler:

i think this is fine enough to send out, i dont think ill have more time to explain deeper, but this is pretty much it.

[Lukewarm]

If hopkirk does not vote soon, can we speed elim him for holding up the thread so long.

Spoiler:

Almost feels like griefing at this point

i'll reread today. if i don't then free to call me 'Hopdork' or equally mean names.

Like, this was nine days ago, and hopdork has still not been able to come up with a vote target.

[Lukewarm]

Especially the constant "I'll be back here in a day or two" But then he is obviously much more actively solving in other games see post 922.

And the fact that he is very active on site outside of this particular game. Like ~60 posts in one game in the last 24 hours.

[Lukewarm]

Honestly, VOTE: hopkirk

He very well might be town, but if that is how he is going to cause this game to be paced, I dread the idea of us both of us walking into Day 3 together.

[Lukewarm]

If his play is not scum, it is at the very least anti-town, because it has definitely made this town player lose all interest in trying to win this game

[Lukewarm]

@marci, I did read your post. Sorry for not immediately responding to it. Glad to see you trying to help solve. Not sure there is a lot for me to respond to though. I feel like everything in it has already been talked about, but there does not seem to be a lot more for us to be talking about in stead, so I can hardly hold that against you. This day should have ended a while ago.

[Lukewarm]

And the more I think about it, the more I think that there is a chance that he is scum here. Not like a 100%, but definitely not 0.

Everyone has stated a poe scum order in the thread, and no one has included hopkirk. So if he can kill motivation for this game today, then he could coast by on all subsequent days because no one will want to try and come up with a new solve, and just vote through their poe votes until we lose.

And this might explain why everyone's poe scum solve has not felt right to them, because we have all stop considering Hopkirk.

I think the longer this day stays open, the more of a case against hopkirk I am going to try and build.

Lets at least make the rest of today interesting while he is making us all sit here.

[Lukewarm]

Best guess of the strategy of a Hopkirk/Bingle game is that before the day started, they said "lets go into day 1 to make sure that no one will think we are partners, and then get Bingle voted out"

Hopkirk himself said that Bingle's push on him was over the top open wolfy. If we believe that, then we must assume that there was a reason Bingle would make this play, and oh look. What does Hopkirk say as soon as the bingle flip happens?

hey Luke do you read me as locktown now or do you want to die next?

So if anyone is looking for a player looking to capitalize on the bingle flip for town cred, I think I found it

[Lukewarm]

I have also heard Bingle specifically say that he would rather set up a team mate for a scum win then for him to cross the finish line himself. I believe he said that if he is ever the end game scum, then that means that something in his scum plan went terribly wrong.

[Lukewarm]

I think Bingle's iso actually makes a bit more sense if you read it thinking "Bingle is actively trying to get himself voted out today," even right from the very beginning. Look how quickly he was able to draw Not_Mafia and Norwee both to scum reading him, even though they literally started the game at eachother's throats

[Lukewarm]

The more I look at it this way, the happier I am settling into the idea that that is exactly what Bingle was trying to do.

And if that was actually the plan, who is the only player who got a hard lock town read from the entire thread after the Bingle flip?

Spoiler:

Hopkirk

.

[Lukewarm]

hold up! ^.^

Are you coming to make a mind blowing 10 post long new case for us to all ooh and ahh over?!?

Wait. All along, it was going to be me who was going to be the one bringing this?

[Lukewarm]

It would also explain why Bingle kept tring so many player. Me, Dunn, Marci, GL... But none of them felt right as his partners. None of them really followed up to get the town cred like you would have expected his partner to do. Like that is the very reason why people struggled to picture Dunn as his partner (pretty sure GL said this was why he discounted Dunn as his partner, if I am remembering correctly). This is why I originally TR Bingle a bit, because I felt like he was getting it dangerously close to the point where his partner was going to be outed Day 1 for an automatic loss.

And the answer to that conundrum was that he was always planning to die Day 1 (and why he self-hammered)

[Lukewarm]

@Marci

Vote Hopkirk

[Lukewarm]

By the way, I think this explains why I had such a hard time getting into the Vanderscamp wagon, and why I eventually ended up leaning town for Guilty Lion. And why GL's posts on Dunn not making sense as a partner are in the thread. And then I ended up poe-ing myself down to Marci, who I had as a hard town read before. Because no one in the PoE

feels

right, because the right answer just is not in the poe to begin with.

[Lukewarm]

Anyways, thank you for coming to my ted talk.

If I am correct, I will be accepting any and all praise in the post game.

@Not_Mafia

can you please weigh in on my theory?

I am done posting now, and would like to hear people's thoughts before we move on

[Lukewarm]

@Not_Mafia

can you please weigh in on my theory?

I am sorry it is so long.

Tl:dr -hopkirk is scum.

Slightly longer tl;dr
-Bingle started day 1 with the plan of getting voted out, which is why he managed to get both you and Norwee to scum read him pretty early
-He also did everything he could to make sure no one thought he could be partnered with hopkirk
-Literally every single player fell for it, and started Day 2 with a poe pool that did not include hopkirk (so no wagon really felt right)
-Hopkirk has tried to kill every players motivation for this game, so that we won't reevaluate on future days, and he can ride today's poe lists to a win.

[Hopkirk]

I've tried to kill motivation? Bullshit.

[Hopkirk]

Vanders>Dunn is my pick right now I think