Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[Vanderscamp]

I'm pretty sure you're misquoting my thoughts on hopkirk because it's definitely not true that I wouldn't be surprised if he were scum.

This is what I was referring to

I definitely think there's a nonzero chance that either Luke or hopkirk is scum, I don't think either of them is lock town.
I just played a game with hopkirk where a lot of the thread was pretty scummy, and hopkirk was sort of chilling and being aggressively null the entire time, but never really on anyone's radar because there were scummier people,

so it wouldn't blow my mind if something similar is happening.

Sure, but in that same post I explain why I don't think it's the case that he is scum.

I don't understand what you're expecting?
Do you think that hopkirk should be above suspicion? Because obviously you don't think that and I don't either.
It's like in the game I just played, Loki talked about there being "mechanically confirmed" scum in certain groups of people, because they were the scummiest people in the thread. I agreed with him that his list of scum was a group of the scummiest players in the game, but then he said some shit about "if one of these other guys has fooled me they're playing an amazing game," which I immediately pushed back on because what he was saying was nonsense, the people in that "towny" group weren't scummy, but they weren't towny either, they were just much less scummy than the other group of people.
I got scumread in that game too by a lot of people for pushing against the notion that we should treat those people (including specifically hopkirk, who did end up being scum) as above suspicion. Not saying my lack of reading your case against him is somehow towny, but if no one other than you is on board with killing hopkirk, then why is it towny for anyone to be pushing against something that is obviously not happening?
But I don't care whether you think I'm being scummy by leaving my options open or whatever, I don't think hopkirk or anyone else here is lock town and I don't think it's either pro-town or towny in practice to treat people who are very unlikely to get lynched as if they're somehow above suspicion. The only person this game who should have been objectively above suspicion from how they've played is imo Norway. Literally no one in this entire game who is still alive, other than me, has any kind of interaction with bingle that makes them obviously not aligned, I think Marci is the only person who even voted him at eod. I think hopkirk's interactions with him are the best of you four which is the major part of why he is my top town.
I'll read your case when I get around to reading it and I'll comment on it then.

[Vanderscamp]

I'll caveat that actually, I do think what hopkirk had to say about bingle before bingle died did seem very genuine.
There was nothing hopkirk did in the entire previous game with his scum partner that was any kind of genuine reaction, his entire reason for surviving and almost winning essentially came down to not being scummy and hard pocketing Loki.
I also think what you (luke) said regarding bingle is also very towny!
It's just pretty annoying for me that I'm out of my scum range but no one else here actually knows that and somehow everyone is happy including me in their two kills.

[Lukewarm]

I'm pretty sure you're misquoting my thoughts on hopkirk because it's definitely not true that I wouldn't be surprised if he were scum.

This is what I was referring to

I definitely think there's a nonzero chance that either Luke or hopkirk is scum, I don't think either of them is lock town.
I just played a game with hopkirk where a lot of the thread was pretty scummy, and hopkirk was sort of chilling and being aggressively null the entire time, but never really on anyone's radar because there were scummier people,

so it wouldn't blow my mind if something similar is happening.

Sure, but in that same post I explain why I don't think it's the case that he is scum.

I don't understand what you're expecting?
Do you think that hopkirk should be above suspicion? Because obviously you don't think that and I don't either.
It's like in the game I just played, Loki talked about there being "mechanically confirmed" scum in certain groups of people, because they were the scummiest people in the thread. I agreed with him that his list of scum was a group of the scummiest players in the game, but then he said some shit about "if one of these other guys has fooled me they're playing an amazing game," which I immediately pushed back on because what he was saying was nonsense, the people in that "towny" group weren't scummy, but they weren't towny either, they were just much less scummy than the other group of people.
I got scumread in that game too by a lot of people for pushing against the notion that we should treat those people (including specifically hopkirk, who did end up being scum) as above suspicion. Not saying my lack of reading your case against him is somehow towny, but if no one other than you is on board with killing hopkirk, then why is it towny for anyone to be pushing against something that is obviously not happening?
But I don't care whether you think I'm being scummy by leaving my options open or whatever, I don't think hopkirk or anyone else here is lock town and I don't think it's either pro-town or towny in practice to treat people who are very unlikely to get lynched as if they're somehow above suspicion. The only person this game who should have been objectively above suspicion from how they've played is imo Norway. Literally no one in this entire game who is still alive, other than me, has any kind of interaction with bingle that makes them obviously not aligned, I think Marci is the only person who even voted him at eod. I think hopkirk's interactions with him are the best of you four which is the major part of why he is my top town.
I'll read your case when I get around to reading it and I'll comment on it then.

It was less about what I was expecting, and more that I felt like you were responding differently then every single other person on the thread, and wanted to see if that difference was alignment indicative, so I am poking you with a stick.

[Vanderscamp]

Yep that's fair.

[SirCakez]

Votecount 3.1

Vanderscamp (1) - Lukewarm
marcistar (1) - Vanderscamp

Not voting (3) - GuiltyLion, marcistar, Hopkirk

(expired on 2021-06-16 10:32:00) remain until day end

With 5 players alive, it takes 3 to reach a majority.

[GuiltyLion]

It's just pretty annoying for me that I'm out of my scum range but no one else here actually knows that and somehow everyone is happy including me in their two kills.

Sorry if this feels like I'm beating a dead horse, but what would you say is outside of your scum range this game?

[GuiltyLion]

yall shouldve voted me > dunnstral yesterday i cause too much confusion

if we had voted you > Dunn, assuming you are town, that would still put us in F3. How would that be better than eliminating you today?

[Hopkirk]

i feel like i can see a good reason not for it to be everyone except Marci here

-GL- The made multiple townslips + hasn't faked townslips is pretty strong. Bingle's self vote makes less sense with GL than with Marci/Vanders.
-Vanders- best d1 voting + push on Bingle was early enough that i think it does conflict with the meta stuff. Especially since his frustration recently about being out of his scum range seems genuine.
-Luke- genuine emotional pings in a number of places, including around Bingle's death. Trying to start a 1v1 with me is super weird and town indicative. Feels hard pocketed by Bingle d1/I don't get the kind of stuff I'd expect Bingle to say to coach a newish partner in their posting.

Marci was pretty widely TR d1 and I can see Bingle thinking she can carry it from there + she's the only partner who couldn't consider switching to voting me. I can absolutely see a plan where Marci/Bingle d1 plan to compromise pivot onto Vanders towards the end of day, followed by continued pushing of me vs Bingle the next day. Marci being the good cop on the hop wagon opposed to Bingle's bad cop push of it is also positioning that makes sense compared to a partner just sitting back. I can see Marci/Bingle having Marci against the Hop push so that if Bingle forces it through d1 then a Bingle flip the next day wouldn't implicate her. I can see Bingle realizing I was going to vote him + Notmafia/Norway/Vanders were and being worried that someone else could switch before Marci did and wanted to cover the base with the hammer. TR then flying under the radar d2 makes sense as well post flip especially with a GL vs Vanders 1v1.

I'm struggling to see Bingle's plan otherwise, especially one that he'd be willing to self vote for there, and I'm struggling to see anything that jumps out as a reason not to vote Marci like i do for a lot of people

[Hopkirk]

VOTE: Marci

[Hopkirk]

obviously i excluded a bunch of reasons for the TRs there, just pointing out the kind of 'smoking gun' reasons to TR that could be a TR alone that i don't have for Marci

[Lukewarm]

I really feel like Marci trying to talk me out of suspecting Hopkirk seems town (same for GL btw, but to a lesser extent).

Spoiler:

i dont really think hes scum, the way hes been replying doesnt feel like it to me.

I think that this post was designed to ensure that his push on Hopkirk never went through

(thinking emoji here)
i like ur points sis, but i dont agree with a hopkirk sus

It was a fake push designed to fail, so that everyone would townbin hopkirk (which everyone did).

thats not why i've been townreading hopkirk but alright

I think that one of us absolutely needs to go. Me and you both making it to Elo sounds like a nightmare for town tbh.

i think u rlly need to like... do sumn else for a bit and come back with a fresher pair of eyes.
if ur both town this will lead to failure probs.

like the failure state for town!marci has to be that she gets eliminated and the wrong one in Vanders/GL gets eliminated, right? I don't think either scum!GL or scum!Vanders have put themselves in a position to capitalize on Lukewarm-Hop TvT

hes gonna tunnel on him and i dont want that

Also, can you drop your hopkirk town case in here before the new day starts?

I forget where exactly I started thinking it, but I realized that his replies didn't really seem off.. like when i took a step back and just looked at how he interacted with other people, it seemed like hes a townie (if im understanding him and his style right..) its like a vibe read but more advanced than my viberead i had on dunnstral

Spoiler:

in the main thread
-even tho i don't quite understand the post 307 doesn't really seem like it has any bad intentions, and it just seems like townie questioning something.
-325
-356 his thingy on u seems genuine (like he wants to solve u)
-372, thats alot of work he put in there.. i don't think scum would've done that.

This all screamed "townie who does not want to lose because Luke tunnels" to me.

@Hopkirk, any thoughts here in regards to Marci?

[Lukewarm]

(I am not sure why the formatting did that....)

@Hopkirk, any thoughts here in regards to Marci?

[marcistar]

if we had voted you > Dunn, assuming you are town, that would still put us in F3. How would that be better than eliminating you today?

becauses im confusing u guys way more

Marci was pretty widely TR d1 and I can see Bingle thinking she can carry it from there + she's the only partner who couldn't consider switching to voting me. I can absolutely see a plan where Marci/Bingle d1 plan to compromise pivot onto Vanders towards the end of day, followed by continued pushing of me vs Bingle the next day. Marci being the good cop on the hop wagon opposed to Bingle's bad cop push of it is also positioning that makes sense compared to a partner just sitting back. I can see Marci/Bingle having Marci against the Hop push so that if Bingle forces it through d1 then a Bingle flip the next day wouldn't implicate her. I can see Bingle realizing I was going to vote him + Notmafia/Norway/Vanders were and being worried that someone else could switch before Marci did and wanted to cover the base with the hammer. TR then flying under the radar d2 makes sense as well post flip especially with a GL vs Vanders 1v1.

I'm struggling to see Bingle's plan otherwise, especially one that he'd be willing to self vote for there, and I'm struggling to see anything that jumps out as a reason not to vote Marci like i do for a lot of people

fair enough but obviously if this was the plan then its doing very bad since ive kinda been sused alot last day phase!!
i wont try talking you out of this if this is what you truly believe, theres some "why would i do x if i was scum" that i could bring up, but thats pretty meaningless. i've barely done much this game, so i do deserve to be the elim : D tho i know im town, i know im only bad to be kept around : - ( i hope everyone will be very confident in where they wanna look next day phase tho : )

Spoiler:

VOTE: not_mafia

I have lukewarm leaning scum and Norwegian leaning town.

Oh and "not really townie" is a fancy shorthand way of saying that literally nothing you’ve said is something i think you couldn’t say as scum.

oh smhsmh u shouldve just said that.
lmk if u want me to vote myself

tbh im just waiting for juicier gossip

VOTE: marcistar

This is very awkward

VOTE: bingle

VOTE: guiltylion

You said last time you had to concede some of the points you were making that I responded to, which points were you actually conceding?
Because this is basically all stuff I've already responded to.
I can sort of believe that you can have trouble with my thing about the s/s thing since I may have phrased it pretty badly, but I don't believe that you can be reading my posts and then making the argument that me voting Marci is scummy in good faith, especially since you asked me the relevant question of who I scumread more between Marci and bingle.

@Vanders - can you towncase luke since i think you had him as your 2nd strongest TR

Yeah, I think his eod reactions around bingle were very towny.
I think his response to the extended accusation against him seemed pretty genuine too.

I think you and lukewarm both had much better interactions with Bingle than GL and Marci, who imo really have very little going for them regarding their in thread interactions with bingle, so I'd kill them both and feel pretty happy about it.

My biggest reason to not kill those two would be if I decided that GL was too towny, I do think he has seemed pretty towny once I took a step back from just looking at him push on me nonstop because he's putting in a lot more effort than I think would be necessary as scum on someone who I don't think is the most obvious push for him either. I could still be overestimating how good I look from pushing bingle but I think he could have easily just gone against Dunn instead.

I want to kill VOTE: marci because I think she has not been towny pretty much at any point this entire game, apart from her vote on bingle which did not come with a ton of associated pressure, and the logic about the pool setups on bingle's behalf, I don't have any reasons to think she's town and I don't think there's any way I would not use one of our two kills on her.

Spoiler:

VOTE: Bingle

Also i will be referencing this game a lot since it's like almost the same playerlist too. So please commit it to memory if you already haven't.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=86273

I've read through a bit of this game and I better see the arguments now for limming in the 6 pool, thanks for linking it

VOTE: Lukewarm

VOTE: Vanderscamp

I see you were online after the game started, come play

Still trying to get a better feel on Vander and Hop before I try any kind of push on Dunn.

Why do you need to have a better read on other players before pushing your scumread? I find that generally anti-town, town should always be making pushes and generating pressure

And what actions have you been taking to get a better feel of them?

VOTE: Lukewarm

I feel like it's pretty likely that if lukewarm joined this game to encourage Marci to step out of the newbie queue (which I have no reason at all to doubt) then he's probably going to be buddying up with her as any combination of alignments.

Was going to say it didn't feel like a S/S interaction from them before I remembered that isn't possible anyway

.

I'm mulling over this comment on reread... I feel it's less likely town would forget who is in which pool and which interactions can or can't be S/S. I've had my fair share of poorly thought out comments/takes this game, but certainly the entire game I've been

constantly

paying attention to interactions cross-pool and keeping in mind potential scum candidates of each pool. I'm skeptical town!Vanders wouldn't really be aware that Marci/Luke can't be scum together 300+ posts into the game.

VOTE: Vanderscamp

VOTE: Vanderscamp

pagetop vote for justice
remember to turn back to previous page to read my case

yeah 893 is also a great point

UNVOTE:

I'm tired and don't have time to lay out the explanation of things in marci's ISO I didn't like on reread but I can post that tomorrow. Want to get Hopkirk thoughts but I'm starting to feel pretty good about a Marci elim. I changed my own mind with the reasoning I posted earlier today about the number of townies who would have to be wrong at this stage for Vander to be scum

931 does feel pretty town overall though, I think

VOTE: Dunnstral

[GuiltyLion]

you haven't exactly been a model of certainty yourself

im so confused on whos scum tbh! r u sure ur not it bestie?

so i would prob do vanderscamp today and then u tmmrw if hes not it.. because u make me confused so save u for later.
but also... theres a doubt in the back of my mind about my bestie lukewarm still, but like we'll see i think.

i keep second guessing my assessments.. should i not be? im so unsure if im right about everything i think

im sorry i dont have good reads this game

[marcistar]

you haven't exactly been a model of certainty yourself

yes ik i wish i was more confident

[Lukewarm]

you haven't exactly been a model of certainty yourself

im so confused on whos scum tbh! r u sure ur not it bestie?

so i would prob do vanderscamp today and then u tmmrw if hes not it.. because u make me confused so save u for later.
but also... theres a doubt in the back of my mind about my bestie lukewarm still, but like we'll see i think.

i keep second guessing my assessments.. should i not be? im so unsure if im right about everything i think

im sorry i dont have good reads this game

I think her point is she does not know who it is and a lot of people are suspicious of her, so she is probably a bad person to take into 3 man elo.

[GuiltyLion]

I understood it as a way to scare us off of voting her because no one seems to have a great idea of who is scum were she to flip town, but maybe I misinterpreted

[Lukewarm]

I understood it as a way to scare us off of voting her because no one seems to have a great idea of who is scum were she to flip town, but maybe I misinterpreted

Oh..
I thought that she was saying that she is the LHF that scum would want to keep around to 3 man elo to win with a push on her.

I might be wrong tho.

[marcistar]

I thought that she was saying that she is the LHF that scum would want to keep around to 3 man elo to win with a push on her.

what does this mean im confused whats a LHF?

[Lukewarm]

I thought that she was saying that she is the LHF that scum would want to keep around to 3 man elo to win with a push on her.

what does this mean im confused whats a LHF?

Low hanging fruit.

It basically means you would be an easy target for scum to push out.

[marcistar]

I think her point is she does not know who it is and a lot of people are suspicious of her, so she is probably a bad person to take into 3 man elo.

well then my point is
i know im town, but i know everyone doubts me too much. i doubt i would be anymore convincing to anyone next day phase no matter how hard i try, so i think its best to elim me. (like i think if im not elimed here ill 100% be the next elim ) tho i feel bad so i want us all have more time to think before (so that it isnt super super hard?) (:

[Lukewarm]

@GuiltyLion, and thoughts on my point about Marci in 1059

[GuiltyLion]

re: 1059, I don't think that's particularly town indicative. It's not overtly scummy, sure, but I don't see what scum!marci could realistically do differently in that position. The path to her win that was set in motion given our collective townreads on yourself/Hopkirk would be to get Dunn/Vander/GL eliminations, it's not hard to imagine scum!marci not willing to risk exposing herself by awkwardly attempting to develop a new scumread and join the fray in a TvT, especially given she's already positioned herself with a Hop townread. If anything, she's thrown a bit more dirt on you at times, see that part of 1030 I've quoted.

[GuiltyLion]

I also find Vanders' attitude towards me today to be more townie - admitting that he can see reasons to townread me doesn't really serve him any benefit as scum when he would know he needs to lim me after marci, I think it's more likely to be a genuine belief of his.

[GuiltyLion]

I also agree with the entirety of Hopkirk's 1082, I think I'm convinced marci is the best elimination today and most likely scum. I won't do it right away but I don't intend to drag this day like we did last day phase, I'll hammer either late Friday or early Saturday PST assuming no massive developments, so everybody get your last words in