Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[Lukewarm]

re: 1059, I don't think that's particularly town indicative. It's not overtly scummy, sure, but I don't see what scum!marci could realistically do differently in that position. The path to her win that was set in motion given our collective townreads on yourself/Hopkirk would be to get Dunn/Vander/GL eliminations, it's not hard to imagine scum!marci not willing to risk exposing herself by awkwardly attempting to develop a new scumread and join the fray in a TvT, especially given she's already positioned herself with a Hop townread. If anything, she's thrown a bit more dirt on you at times, see that part of 1030 I've quoted.

...

I never said that I would have expected scum Marci to go along with my Hopkirk push. I said that she was the most vocal about me tunneling being bad.

You can say, "I don't think it is hopkirk" without outright trying to tell me to not tunnel multiple times because you think that could lose us the game at elo.

I mean, even just comparing what she said to what you said

You reconsider his slot if you get down to F3 and he's still alive for some reason. You don't do it right after the main person pushing him flipped scum.

You left it to where we can have the conversation again if hopkirk lives to Elo. Marci told me that if I continue to tunnel hopkirk, we will probably lose the game at elo. That is the difference I was trying to draw to Marci's response to my hopkirk push.

[Vanderscamp]

It's just pretty annoying for me that I'm out of my scum range but no one else here actually knows that and somehow everyone is happy including me in their two kills.

Sorry if this feels like I'm beating a dead horse, but what would you say is outside of your scum range this game?

My push on bingle.
No one here has played with me much so it's fair for you to discount that, but it's true and I can link quotes from other people that can confirm that what I'm saying is true.

I generally don't like to bus as scum so for me to do it there has to be a pretty good reason, more than just for the cred.
I'm 100% sure that the bingle kill would not have happened without what I did, and I was pushing him before he had a lot of traction.

[Vanderscamp]

i feel like i can see a good reason not for it to be everyone except Marci here

-GL- The made multiple townslips + hasn't faked townslips is pretty strong. Bingle's self vote makes less sense with GL than with Marci/Vanders.
-Vanders- best d1 voting + push on Bingle was early enough that i think it does conflict with the meta stuff. Especially since his frustration recently about being out of his scum range seems genuine.
-Luke- genuine emotional pings in a number of places, including around Bingle's death. Trying to start a 1v1 with me is super weird and town indicative. Feels hard pocketed by Bingle d1/I don't get the kind of stuff I'd expect Bingle to say to coach a newish partner in their posting.

Marci was pretty widely TR d1 and I can see Bingle thinking she can carry it from there + she's the only partner who couldn't consider switching to voting me. I can absolutely see a plan where Marci/Bingle d1 plan to compromise pivot onto Vanders towards the end of day, followed by continued pushing of me vs Bingle the next day. Marci being the good cop on the hop wagon opposed to Bingle's bad cop push of it is also positioning that makes sense compared to a partner just sitting back. I can see Marci/Bingle having Marci against the Hop push so that if Bingle forces it through d1 then a Bingle flip the next day wouldn't implicate her. I can see Bingle realizing I was going to vote him + Notmafia/Norway/Vanders were and being worried that someone else could switch before Marci did and wanted to cover the base with the hammer. TR then flying under the radar d2 makes sense as well post flip especially with a GL vs Vanders 1v1.

I'm struggling to see Bingle's plan otherwise, especially one that he'd be willing to self vote for there, and I'm struggling to see anything that jumps out as a reason not to vote Marci like i do for a lot of people

Completely agree with the reasoning on lukewarm btw

I'm generally not putting a ton of weight on bungle's self vote, there's a chance that what you're saying is correct but I think it's also possible the reasoning (regardless of his partner) was just that he thought it would make him look towny

[Vanderscamp]

if we had voted you > Dunn, assuming you are town, that would still put us in F3. How would that be better than eliminating you today?

becauses im confusing u guys way more

Marci was pretty widely TR d1 and I can see Bingle thinking she can carry it from there + she's the only partner who couldn't consider switching to voting me. I can absolutely see a plan where Marci/Bingle d1 plan to compromise pivot onto Vanders towards the end of day, followed by continued pushing of me vs Bingle the next day. Marci being the good cop on the hop wagon opposed to Bingle's bad cop push of it is also positioning that makes sense compared to a partner just sitting back. I can see Marci/Bingle having Marci against the Hop push so that if Bingle forces it through d1 then a Bingle flip the next day wouldn't implicate her. I can see Bingle realizing I was going to vote him + Notmafia/Norway/Vanders were and being worried that someone else could switch before Marci did and wanted to cover the base with the hammer. TR then flying under the radar d2 makes sense as well post flip especially with a GL vs Vanders 1v1.

I'm struggling to see Bingle's plan otherwise, especially one that he'd be willing to self vote for there, and I'm struggling to see anything that jumps out as a reason not to vote Marci like i do for a lot of people

fair enough but obviously if this was the plan then its doing very bad since ive kinda been sused alot last day phase!!
i wont try talking you out of this if this is what you truly believe, theres some "why would i do x if i was scum" that i could bring up, but thats pretty meaningless. i've barely done much this game, so i do deserve to be the elim : D tho i know im town, i know im only bad to be kept around : - ( i hope everyone will be very confident in where they wanna look next day phase tho : )

Spoiler:

VOTE: not_mafia

I have lukewarm leaning scum and Norwegian leaning town.

Oh and "not really townie" is a fancy shorthand way of saying that literally nothing you’ve said is something i think you couldn’t say as scum.

oh smhsmh u shouldve just said that.
lmk if u want me to vote myself

tbh im just waiting for juicier gossip

VOTE: marcistar

This is very awkward

VOTE: bingle

VOTE: guiltylion

You said last time you had to concede some of the points you were making that I responded to, which points were you actually conceding?
Because this is basically all stuff I've already responded to.
I can sort of believe that you can have trouble with my thing about the s/s thing since I may have phrased it pretty badly, but I don't believe that you can be reading my posts and then making the argument that me voting Marci is scummy in good faith, especially since you asked me the relevant question of who I scumread more between Marci and bingle.

@Vanders - can you towncase luke since i think you had him as your 2nd strongest TR

Yeah, I think his eod reactions around bingle were very towny.
I think his response to the extended accusation against him seemed pretty genuine too.

I think you and lukewarm both had much better interactions with Bingle than GL and Marci, who imo really have very little going for them regarding their in thread interactions with bingle, so I'd kill them both and feel pretty happy about it.

My biggest reason to not kill those two would be if I decided that GL was too towny, I do think he has seemed pretty towny once I took a step back from just looking at him push on me nonstop because he's putting in a lot more effort than I think would be necessary as scum on someone who I don't think is the most obvious push for him either. I could still be overestimating how good I look from pushing bingle but I think he could have easily just gone against Dunn instead.

I want to kill VOTE: marci because I think she has not been towny pretty much at any point this entire game, apart from her vote on bingle which did not come with a ton of associated pressure, and the logic about the pool setups on bingle's behalf, I don't have any reasons to think she's town and I don't think there's any way I would not use one of our two kills on her.

Spoiler:

VOTE: Bingle

Also i will be referencing this game a lot since it's like almost the same playerlist too. So please commit it to memory if you already haven't.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=86273

I've read through a bit of this game and I better see the arguments now for limming in the 6 pool, thanks for linking it

VOTE: Lukewarm

VOTE: Vanderscamp

I see you were online after the game started, come play

Still trying to get a better feel on Vander and Hop before I try any kind of push on Dunn.

Why do you need to have a better read on other players before pushing your scumread? I find that generally anti-town, town should always be making pushes and generating pressure

And what actions have you been taking to get a better feel of them?

VOTE: Lukewarm

I feel like it's pretty likely that if lukewarm joined this game to encourage Marci to step out of the newbie queue (which I have no reason at all to doubt) then he's probably going to be buddying up with her as any combination of alignments.

Was going to say it didn't feel like a S/S interaction from them before I remembered that isn't possible anyway

.

I'm mulling over this comment on reread... I feel it's less likely town would forget who is in which pool and which interactions can or can't be S/S. I've had my fair share of poorly thought out comments/takes this game, but certainly the entire game I've been

constantly

paying attention to interactions cross-pool and keeping in mind potential scum candidates of each pool. I'm skeptical town!Vanders wouldn't really be aware that Marci/Luke can't be scum together 300+ posts into the game.

VOTE: Vanderscamp

VOTE: Vanderscamp

pagetop vote for justice
remember to turn back to previous page to read my case

yeah 893 is also a great point

UNVOTE:

I'm tired and don't have time to lay out the explanation of things in marci's ISO I didn't like on reread but I can post that tomorrow. Want to get Hopkirk thoughts but I'm starting to feel pretty good about a Marci elim. I changed my own mind with the reasoning I posted earlier today about the number of townies who would have to be wrong at this stage for Vander to be scum

931 does feel pretty town overall though, I think

VOTE: Dunnstral

I'd be interested to hear why you wouldn't have played this way as scum

I love this stuff

[Vanderscamp]

I also find Vanders' attitude towards me today to be more townie - admitting that he can see reasons to townread me doesn't really serve him any benefit as scum when he would know he needs to lim me after marci, I think it's more likely to be a genuine belief of his.

Yeah I think I said this earlier but I think you're more likely than baseline to be town at this point because I do think your passion for wanting to kill me felt genuine

[Lukewarm]

Vanders (please dont take this the wrong way but) if I had to describe your presence in the thread in one word, I would describe it as "forgettable."

For some reason, it just feels like your posts and pushes just are not particularly memorable. Like you keep saying that you were key to pushing out Bingle, but when I think back to Day 1, that is not something that stood out in my memory. I think of Hopkirk's 1v1 with Bingle, I think of Norwee and Not_Mafia's pushes on him, and I think of me organizing the "everyone vote for either hopkirk or Bingle." And then I look back at your iso, and I am like "huh, I guess Vanders did have a scum read on Bingle kinda early"

And now that I am like looking into it, it is very strange to me because when I look at the activity overview, of the living players, you are the second highest post count after me. But even though you are making a lot of posts, you are not making the kind of posts that draw attention I guess?

And I am not sure if that is just how you play the game normally, regardless of alignment, or if it is because you are being overly cautious with your posts because you are scum.

I am pretty sure that before I could stake the game on your alignment, I would to do a deep meta dive on you to figure that out, so I really hope that we don't both end up at Elo

Spoiler:

I think at this point, I really am just hoping that if we get it wrong today, that I am the night kill

[GuiltyLion]

I never said that I would have expected scum Marci to go along with my Hopkirk push. I said that she was the most vocal about me tunneling being bad.

You can say, "I don't think it is hopkirk" without outright trying to tell me to not tunnel multiple times because you think that could lose us the game at elo.

Sure, but as I pointed out that doesn't even make sense from a town!marci.

If the F3 is marci, Luke, Hopkirk, then clearly your push on Hopkirk is either scum-motivated or correct from town!marci POV.

If the F3 is one of Vanders/GL, Luke, Hopkirk, when both Vanders/GL have already said they don't find it likely Hop is scum, how does scum in Vanders/GL win from there? Is Marci pushing either of us especially hard and demanding we be eliminated instead? Are you so reckless that you'd throw your vote down without even considering that one of the more suspected slots this game was scum?

If F3 doesn't include one of you or Hopkirk, then it's a non-issue.

So it feels to me like a fake concern.

And also, frankly, you

should

keep the conversation about Hopkirk open if he makes it to F3 because if you are in a F3 situation then something has gone horribly wrong with the game and it's usually likely that your reads are off if scum chose not to kill you. Anyone not open-minded to considering both possibilities in final 3 is playing anti-town.

[Vanderscamp]

Vanders (please dont take this the wrong way but) if I had to describe your presence in the thread in one word, I would describe it as "forgettable."

For some reason, it just feels like your posts and pushes just are not particularly memorable. Like you keep saying that you were key to pushing out Bingle, but when I think back to Day 1, that is not something that stood out in my memory. I think of Hopkirk's 1v1 with Bingle, I think of Norwee and Not_Mafia's pushes on him, and I think of me organizing the "everyone vote for either hopkirk or Bingle." And then I look back at your iso, and I am like "huh, I guess Vanders did have a scum read on Bingle kinda early"

And now that I am like looking into it, it is very strange to me because when I look at the activity overview, of the living players, you are the second highest post count after me. But even though you are making a lot of posts, you are not making the kind of posts that draw attention I guess?

And I am not sure if that is just how you play the game normally, regardless of alignment, or if it is because you are being overly cautious with your posts because you are scum.

I am pretty sure that before I could stake the game on your alignment, I would to do a deep meta dive on you to figure that out, so I really hope that we don't both end up at Elo

Spoiler:

I think at this point, I really am just hoping that if we get it wrong today, that I am the night kill

Yeah I get this a decent amount, I think there's always an element of thinking that what I'm thinking about the game is coming across in the thread as obviously as it is in my mind when it really isn't.
I think it was the second most recent game I played where I thought this guy Robert was super obviously scum and I crushed him D1, when I was looking back on what I had actually said in a final three I had done a good job of trying to make sure we were killing him but nothing close to what I actually thought I had said.

To use you as a corollary for this, and I say this with no offence intended, but I could not have given less of a shit about you telling us to vote for either hopkirk or bingle, and I'm not sure it actually impacted anyone else's decision either. I do think it's towny that you were saying it, but ultimately not very impactful. But I'm sure because you were doing it and it's easier to look at your own perspective vs everyone else's it feels like it would have been something that was pretty relevant.

[marcistar]

I'm convinced marci is the best elimination today and most likely scum.

im not scum but okay!!!! lets do whats best for town!!

I'd be interested to hear why you wouldn't have played this way as scum

I love this stuff

because its not what i would do as scum. the biggest reason is that i would've tried a bit more to change my play from last game, because last game i ultimately lost it for my team theres other reasons as well, but idk how to word them exactly

[GuiltyLion]

the biggest reason is that i would've tried a bit more to change my play from last game

are you saying you played similar to your last scum game then? why would you do that as town?

[Vanderscamp]

I'm convinced marci is the best elimination today and most likely scum.

im not scum but okay!!!! lets do whats best for town!!

I'd be interested to hear why you wouldn't have played this way as scum

I love this stuff

because its not what i would do as scum. the biggest reason is that i would've tried a bit more to change my play from last game, because last game i ultimately lost it for my team theres other reasons as well, but idk how to word them exactly

Why do you think you've played the same as last game?
Because that wasn't really the impression I was getting from people from that game

[Hopkirk]

Ha, now who's 'stalling wagons', 'extending the game', and 'being a disappointment to their parents' like Luke said I was last day

I'm struggling to see why you're hard TRing any of the stuff you quoted from Marci + asked me about Luke?

[Lukewarm]

Ha, now who's 'stalling wagons', 'extending the game', and 'being a disappointment to their parents' like Luke said I was last day

I'm struggling to see why you're hard TRing any of the stuff you quoted from Marci + asked me about Luke?

Me?

I have a vote out there.

Spoiler:

My issue on Day 2 was that the day was dragging on without any discussion happening. You did not have a vote AND you were not out talking to people.

I think at the moment we are waiting for Guilty Lion to decide where to vote. He could hammer Marci, and if he votes Vanders, then Marci/You could hammer there. And I am not upset that GL has not decided yet because the day has not reached the absolute crawl that Day 2 did, and he has asking Marci questions

[marcistar]

are you saying you played similar to your last scum game then? why would you do that as town?

i think its pretty similar, tho it wasnt intentional.. if the shoe fits the shoe fits yknow?

Why do you think you've played the same as last game?
Because that wasn't really the impression I was getting from people from that game

the biggest similarity i think is that i dont have good reads that im confident in

[SirCakez]

Votecount 3.2

marcistar (2) - Vanderscamp, Hopkirk
Vanderscamp (1) - Lukewarm

Not voting (2) - GuiltyLion, marcistar

(expired on 2021-06-16 10:32:00) remain until day end

With 5 players alive, it takes 3 to reach a majority.

[GuiltyLion]

alright well everyone has given words since I gave intent and I still believe this is right

VOTE: marcistar

fingers crosseddd

[marcistar]

alright well everyone has given words since I gave intent and I still believe this is right

VOTE: marcistar

fingers crosseddd

bestie it isnt right

[GuiltyLion]

welp

that's not good

[Lukewarm]

Its a fun place to be when most people are town reading you, but no one likes your reads. I did not want Dunn eliminated. I did not want Marci eliminated. And here we are :Dead:

[marcistar]

welp

that's not good

[GuiltyLion]

are you sure you're not scum marci? I really don't know who it is if it's not you

[Lukewarm]

Dang capital leters messing up the emoiji

[marcistar]

lukewarm bestie can u make sure to not tunnel if u live SMSKSSMSK

think deeply about guiltylions as well i thinks

[Lukewarm]

lukewarm bestie can u make sure to not tunnel if u live SMSKSSMSK

think deeply about guiltylions as well i thinks

Please do not curse that fate on me.

Can I please be night kill? pretty please?

I think it is GL
I think it is Hopkirk
I think it is Vanders

That should be enough for me dying to not spew it too bad one way or another lol

[GuiltyLion]

I wish I was scum frankly lol this would be a great performance if I was, as opposed to the terrible towngame this is turning into

the saving grace would be if my pet Vander scumread was right all along I guess but I'm not even confident in it anymore?

vander can you just kill me if you're scum