Newbie 2064 - (GG)

[Cabd]

mine

[JamesTheNames]

mine

Stop stealing these!

[Super]

I'll hopefully get my ISOs done tonight

[Super]

So I’m going to do ISOs of both Navi/Nora interactions and HEM/Unwnd interactions with Orc –

Navi and Orc –

I gotta say, that play by Dum was definitely unexpected and the analysis was fairly well done. Unfortunately, I don't think taking the bait means anything; it relies on whoever it is not paying attention to the events of the thread which I don't see most of the active players doing, scum or otherwise. The rules at the beginning also said we have to state our intent to hammer on vote 5, which he didn't do. As far as I can tell, the trap did little to tell us about orctin, but did reveal a trickier side to Dum (though whether that will backfire or not remains to be seen).

There's the possibility that Micc and Dum are scum trying to protect each other, but it's just as likely that they could be town, so frustratingly enough this did little to change my mind about the current circumstances; there's just too many possibilities with little to weigh things in anyone's favor.

When I first subbed into the game and was rereading, a thing that irked me a lot about Navi was this read on Dum which came from their little gambit they made on seeing if anyone would try and hammer Micc. In hindsight Orc’s response to Dum was scummy and it’s interesting that Navi used it as a way to make Dum look bad instead of Orc – I mean, Navi wasn’t even scumreading Dum – just saying they were tricky which is a weird thing to say in general.
Alright there really wasn’t much else… Navi brings up Orc again in a spoiler and ends with their read on him being “mixed” and then D2 states that they find Orc sketchy and will probably end up voting them – but then Navi subbed out. Honestly I find their interactions pretty meh and can’t get anything from it – I did find rereading some of Navi’s stuff towny though (in particular certain reads on people, i.e. Jackson).
ANDDDD I just realised Nora didn’t get to interact with Orc…. At all. So yes. I shall now look at HEM/Orc haha

HEM and Orc –

It's important to understand that Day 1s are important to go as long as possible because it's a useful reference to how players behaved and voted when everybody (except masons and scum) would have no information about anyone's alignment.

I think orctin could be town.

okay so right off the bat HEM outs a townread on Orc – would he do this to his scum partner straight away? I personally wouldn’t… do that… I don’t know. Seems pretty brazin’ of HEM to do.

navigatov and NinjaStore are both in my townblock — we eliminate between Dum, JV, James, and orctin today. I re-read orctin during the night and I didn't like how conservative he was with his votes, but it could be explained by this:

You can see that i tend to put pressure on someone first - gauge their reaction, then look to vote. This whole setup here of people voting to gauge reaction is just backwards to my normal way of thinking and playing where i'm from.

Dum's absence and inactivity and nonchalance near deadline with Faaz' E-1 wagon was sketchy and does not resemble the Dum we knew from early D1 who would make gambits.

the next time HEM kinda acknowledges Orc is here, other times he has just said he thinks Orc is fine. It’s interesting that he outs a negative read on him now but also kinda uses something Orc says to excuse it (probably avoid having Orc as the elim target – if they’re partners)
HEM then says he doesn’t want to lynch Dum Dum or James leaving Orc/Jackson in his aim of fire – but states that he wants to see more of Orc and it feels like he wants Jackson gone more.

The whole replacing players makes me nuts as well but seems to be the way here. I was looking at Micc early on and probably Dum paired with him. Then we got James, Johnny and HEM swapped in to replace players and now JV getting replaced - this seems almost like a broken system to me and we not replacing 4 of the 9 people who started the game. But i guess that's mostly my OCD issues but it's like if people dont like the way the game is going for them they just opt out.

When I first read this post from Orc I was like holy hell he is mad that people keep subbing because it is making it harder for the scumteam to get a player elimmed – he posted this just after Jackson was looking for a replacement which makes me think that Orc was annoyed because Jackson was someone he wanted out of the game (or was wanting to push) – HEM was also pushing Jackson up until Catboi replaced that slot
Hem responds with this:

Having trouble with the game, orctin? Replace-ins are very common in newbie games because not everybody appreciates long-form mafia.

Tell me about your reads.

Just is a very meh response I guess – I don’t see it as partner-y as such, just kinda acknowledging Orc – I will say that HEM tends to be aggressive and pushy against most people in the game bar Orc, which is an interesting observation

SOOOOO, THIS is where things start to get saucy

– Catboi replaces Jackson and HEM does an entire 180 on his reads and decides an Orctin elim is the way to go:

I'm down for an orctin wagon

okay catboi. i like where you're getting at. VOTE: orctin

This is pretty much is where the Orc wagon began and I do find it interesting that HEM would decide to want to bus at this moment of the game (after Orc has been complaining about subs especially lmao)
Aaand then after my questioning of HEM where I wanted to ask all this to him… he subs out and now I’mma check Unwnd yay…

Unwnd and Orc –

So I’m reading Unwnd now, I don’t think I will quote stuff because this post is already going to be messy and long enough as it is but I will just comment on some things. Most of the time Unwnd has a pretty scum-leaning read on Orc and does interact more with Orc than Navi or HEM did. When Orc gets to E-1 Unwnd unvotes and says he needs more time to think – which is FINE, because I think he knew Orc was likely going to be getting elimmed regardless so I don’t think it means he was trying to save his partner. Unwnd does eventually hammer Orc. I will note that Navi was not voting Orc but had a scumread on their slot – once Orc is hammered Navi requests a sub – which I don’t want to read into all that much but it’s an interesting stream of events.
Alright so… I might quickly do a quick ISO of Orc now and then post my final thoughts in another post for y’all. Sorry about the length and mess of this – this ISO notes thing is mostly for me and my own scumhunting purposes but I like to share how I process my reads so it makes sense to you guys too buuuut I feel like this is kinda mostly messy and could be unhelpful but if you don’t wanna read it you don’t have to lmao

[Super]

I did a little reread of Orc's ISO but it's getting late and I my brain is fuzzy so I might just say my current thoughts now, have a sleep and read his ISO again in the morning when I have more clarity. I find Orc a really difficult player to read in general cos their writing style is so bland (makes sense as to why I struggled so hard at having a definite read on him D2) - when I did just glance at his ISO now I don't see any partner interactions which majorly stand out, he townread Navi (everyone else was so it makes sense) and was saying HEM was an aggressive player but never really said they were scum (idk, I need to reread in the morning)

anyways, I basically want to say that Nora came into today very energetic and bubbly which my playstyle definitely vibes with. I do still think their energy is towny - but - once they noticed my town-entitlement they started getting paranoid of me (which is completely fair and OK, I get paranoid of players constantly - heck I'm doing it right now) I can see this as being completely innocent of Nora but I will say it interests me that Nora cares so much about Zyla's read on me and comparing their read on me to their read on Navi/Themselves (showing that Nora is either paranoid I could be scum for lylo OR Nora is scum and scared Zyla won't elim me in lylo). I 100% can see town!Nora being worried I'm playing a great scum game and riding it out until 3way. but I can also see scum!Nora worried about Zyla townreading me more in 3way and fucking it up for the scumteam - I am a cocky town player I admit, and so I can defs see a scumplayer being worried about me as it's hard to elim town!Super (I would not want to be my own cc ) HOWEVER, I think Nora is likely being paranoid here.... for now I'm going to say I'm 55% leaning town on Nora and 45% on Unwnd. I want to hear more from Unwnd today, tbh their hesitancy at first irked me... but after ISOing them again today I do worry they could be town because I don't know why they'd just blatantly give up as scum here, or at least act the way they are - unless they really do think they can't win. AT this point I'd still lean on it being Unwnd but I'm not 100% sure. I kinda wanna hear James and Zyla's thoughts on their slot - I think James was townreading Navi most the game too so I'm curious on his thoughts now

Things about each pairing that irks me:
Navi subbing out directly after the Orc elim - and Navi not having had voted Orc even after stating they scumread him
HEM voting Orc randomly after Catboi subs in and HEM had originally been hard tunnelling the Catboi slot (???? it still doesn't make sense to me)
Navi using Orc's slip of a vote to make Dum look bad instead
Unwnd unvoting right when Orc hits E-1 - not sure if this means anything though

IDK these are random thoughts/notes blah blah la. take it as you will. I feel pretty confident about this game anyways because if both PRs townread me this is autowin for town, I was thinking about how if Zyla jailed anyone else this would be autowin also which is sad for town since this could be over already BUT that's whatever now

[Super]

I'mma head to sleep now if anyone has any questions I'll answer when I am up <3

[Noraa]

ANDDDD I just realised Nora didn’t get to interact with Orc…. At all. So yes. I shall now look at HEM/Orc haha

I'm glad I wasn't alive when orc was alive. I TRed him prior to realizing he was flipped scum.

[Noraa]

So I’m reading Unwnd now, I don’t think I will quote stuff because this post is already going to be messy and long enough as it is but I will just comment on some things. Most of the time Unwnd has a pretty scum-leaning read on Orc and does interact more with Orc than Navi or HEM did. When Orc gets to E-1 Unwnd unvotes and says he needs more time to think – which is FINE, because I think he knew Orc was likely going to be getting elimmed regardless so I don’t think it means he was trying to save his partner. Unwnd does eventually hammer Orc. I will note that Navi was not voting Orc but had a scumread on their slot – once Orc is hammered Navi requests a sub – which I don’t want to read into all that much but it’s an interesting stream of events.

Unwnd and your positioning around orc were both bad imo. So it's not just navi. In fact I would argue that Navi's positioning was much more solid. I can make a post about it but that's my overall opinion. I'm not sure why HEM would bus tbh but since he started the wagon, if he was scum, that's like the lowest tier of bussing since its close to no pressure when the wagon just starts and distancing is good, yadda yadda.

[Noraa]

Nora cares so much about Zyla's read on me

Zyla will be alive tomorrow whereas James will not. I must know if Zyla trusts me because if she doesn't and you are scum, town loses the game due to this fact. Is that hard to understand?

[Noraa]

Navi using Orc's slip of a vote to make Dum look bad instead

I find it hard to believe that you are picking at this given you weren't on the orc wagon? Like I don't see how hard it is to believe that navi was town reading orc and I also think this is kinda just misrep. I am down to be like heck that rep out was scummy but the rest of your reasons are kinda just like uhhhhhhhhhhhh ehhhhhhhhhhh :/ I get that OMGUS is a thing but I mean ... given you've been like AHA I am never dying tomorrow, I don't see why a single townie wouldn't be paranoid as fuck after hearing that. It just makes me consider the option of open deep wolves and that shit scares? And Zyla town reads you so its like fuck everything if you're scum and we're losing.

Navi was pretty damn towny. Like I've read a select few of his posts and every one has been very towny to be and I do not see any issues with any of his posts. All of them have clear towny progression and lots of thinking done behind the scenes. That is not how scum operate. I also want to point out that Micc caught scum on page 1 or 2 and had a hard townread on Navi. I feel like that alone is a very strong point in my favor.

Zyla, what do you think about Micc's read on me?
James, can you come give thoughts? You are likely dying tonight since I think scum will role block zyla and kill you so this may be your last day in the game.

[Noraa]

Wow, thing's have gotten a bit more hostile since I was last here.
What I've gathered from everyone's posts is that humaneatingmonkey seems to have a tendency to post things that will get people to react. This likely means he's town since the only reason you'd need to do that is to get a better read on people, but it is possible he's scum doing it for any number of reasons.
Jackson on the other hand has me feeling wary. They spent most of the first two days lurking and then suddenly began posting a ton. This in and of itself isn't necessarily a scum move, they could simply be focusing on getting a read on people, however if you combine that with the fact that they're very quick to defend Micc who's been the primary suspect thus far and them seemingly trying to make us turn on each other, it does read as somewhat concerning. Not outright scummy in my eyes, bit definitely someone to keep an eye on.
On the topic of Micc, their arguments this far have been pretty weak, mostly consisting of "that's a rookie mistake, you'll figure it out with experience" whuch seems to be a good to deflect an argument from a new player without having to actually provide a decent reasoning. That said, I'm getting the feeling that Micc either isn't scum or, if he is, he's not the one to be most concerned about.
Salsabil got awfully defensive when Jackson called her out, moreso than I think was warranted. She's also kept her posts incredibly brief and without much substance. These things could be either poorly disguised scum behavior or simple newbie jitters and I'm not 100% sure which rn.
Orctin has been mostly helpful and he seems to be able to keep a cool head under pressure (a useful but potentially dangerous trait). He seems very similar to me in that we're both focused more on getting a read and breaking down arguments logically than simply voting. My gut tells me he's town, but I can't deny the possibility that he's simply very good at playing the long game for a mafia win.
As for everyone else I don't have a good enough read to say anything about them at this point.

If I had to pick, I'd say my top 3 suspects are, from most to least suspicious, Salsabil, Jackson, and Micc. However, there's still enough doubt that I can't pick a specific person to point the finger at rn. That said
UNVOTE: Micc

Also look at posts like this. I don't know how cheeky scum has to be to just go around and call everyone that they know is town scum just like this. It's different for orctin since he posted something similar when he was under pressure. This post comes outta nowhere literally.

[Noraa]

Scum don't ever come into a game and be like AHA today is a beautiful day to just make everyone my enemy WOO
Like half the time TRing someone else will get you a TR back. Why take the difficult path??????

[Zyla]

Nora cares so much about Zyla's read on me

Zyla will be alive tomorrow whereas James will not.

I must know if Zyla trusts me because if she doesn't and you are scum, town loses the game due to this fact. Is that hard to understand?

Why do you say that?

[Noraa]

Nora cares so much about Zyla's read on me

Zyla will be alive tomorrow whereas James will not.

I must know if Zyla trusts me because if she doesn't and you are scum, town loses the game due to this fact. Is that hard to understand?

Why do you say that?

It makes much more sense to Block you and kill James than the other way around.
Unless you think scum is absolutely stupid which I assure you they are not because they are one of the three SEs(from your point of view)

[Zyla]

I don't follow the logic to why one of us would be better NK material than the other

[Noraa]

I don't follow the logic to why one of us would be better NK material than the other

scum always blocks you because you are the role blocker. If scum doesn't block you, they run the risk of you blocking them and guiltying them tomorrow. OR the risk of you blocking a vt and clearing them.

If scum block and kill you, that's pretty lame. So they'll kill tracker to get rid of his result

[Zyla]

Ah, gotcha

[Noraa]

I mean that was why having both prs claim would be bad since scum now can make sure there are zero results that we can get from prs.
But that was assuming that one of unwnd and super was pr so its good you claimed just because you were a target of suspicion and wagoning you today would've been really bad.

[JamesTheNames]

Its hard to say who is most scummy, the only thing that has piqued my attention is Super's nonsense reason for no longer voting or wanting to vote Orctin Day 2.
Am I the only one who feels like it was just a bad excuse? Feeling icky because the game consensus was Orctin as scum?

[Super]

James, lol. if Orc was my partner there and everyone was scumreading him I'd 100% be bussing in that position, not being confused on my read on him and not voting. I'm a notorious busser and will always vote my partner if I sense they are being scumread. as town I'm really hesitant with my voting, heck I haven't voted once this entire game! you can be icked out by it, but I'm being honest when I say I am a way better scum player than you'd think. I played a game in January where I bussed my one wolf partner d2 just because everyone else was scumreading them and I still ended up winning the game solo; I'm completely capable of bussing in this setup and would have probably pushed on Orc hard af with a vote if he was my partner.

[Super]

does it look bad I was hesitant voting him and wasn't certain on my read on him? maybe. but wouldn't it make more sense for me to vote him when I knew he was the elim for the day to distance myself as much as possible? I'm a very very paranoid town and hate being wrong, hence my reluctance to take a stance so quickly. Orc was still my biggest scumlean, just because I was hesitant does not mean he's my partner, if anything it shows how I really cared about being right with my vote - I am the biggest scum TMIer ever and would have been pushing Orc pretty hard

[Super]

I'm kinda annoyed Unwnd hasn't made any stance or said anything to get a better read on him properly. I'll respond to you soon, Noraaaa, I'm just doing a few things first and Jamss' post semi triggered me so I had to answer lmao

[Super]

also James I never had an excuse to not vote him, pretty sure I stared I was going to at some point but I like using the time in the day

[Super]

also what's an SE?

[Super]

So I’m reading Unwnd now, I don’t think I will quote stuff because this post is already going to be messy and long enough as it is but I will just comment on some things. Most of the time Unwnd has a pretty scum-leaning read on Orc and does interact more with Orc than Navi or HEM did. When Orc gets to E-1 Unwnd unvotes and says he needs more time to think – which is FINE, because I think he knew Orc was likely going to be getting elimmed regardless so I don’t think it means he was trying to save his partner. Unwnd does eventually hammer Orc. I will note that Navi was not voting Orc but had a scumread on their slot – once Orc is hammered Navi requests a sub – which I don’t want to read into all that much but it’s an interesting stream of events.

Unwnd and your positioning around orc were both bad imo. So it's not just navi. In fact I would argue that Navi's positioning was much more solid. I can make a post about it but that's my overall opinion. I'm not sure why HEM would bus tbh but since he started the wagon, if he was scum, that's like the lowest tier of bussing since its close to no pressure when the wagon just starts and distancing is good, yadda yadda.

I guess it was more that Catboi started the wagon and HEM immediately jumped on it - I guess I can see HEM doing that to distance from his partner and thinking the wagon wouldn't go anywhere... idk. I found that entire switch in vote weird coming from HEM since he literally just was scumreading Catbois slot