Open 815: Forest Fire Redux [Endgame]

[skitter30]

think hectics town for past reasons and also the flipflop onto hem without like any justification

uhhhhhh i think this is more likely to come from scum than town, no?

[skitter30]

why isn't hem town on this readslist?

Reason I think this is sus is because scum sometimes forget to include their partner when giving reads, and it's very odd he isn't included here after Infinity asks skitter for overall vibes

VOTE: skitter

honestly i don't remember why i didn't include him there but i think this is an incredibly poor reason to scumread me

also @ydrasse i very adamently believe that hectic was not a viable cw eod

i also think that it's even *more* sus that he flipflopped between child and hem given that hem flipped scum, and that asking hem (who he scumread) to join him on child looks incredibly partner-indicative. it's baffling to me why town would ask a scumread to join them on another scumread when it shouldn't matter to them which one gets flipped, but it makes an insane amount of sense for scum (hectic) to ask their partner (hem) to vote flipbait town when the partner is the biggest other viable wagon.

i also think the timing of flipping off of child onto hem is also sus given that it was obvious a child wagon wasn't happening at that point

[skitter30]

skitter scum I don't think pushes outside of the easy poe bit I might be wrong because she defended hem.
Child was on vla I'd ratherhear from them once it ends.
Leaving ydra.

scum-me does not defend hem there
or, more accurately, if i did, i would never then choose to start a lolpush on hectic of all people

scum-me would only defend hem if i was incredibly confident i could get a flip elsewhere, and if i was trying to get a flip elsewhere i wouldn't be picking hectic as my target

[Lukewarm]

think hectics town for past reasons and also the flipflop onto hem without like any justification

uhhhhhh i think this is more likely to come from scum than town, no?

Wouldn't scum either be trying to save their scum buddy, OR be trying to get town cred for their elimination?

Flip flopping without reason, does neither of those things.

Like, at the time you said

i think town-him actually has stronger feelings on one or the other than just 'eh whichever one i can get'

Wouldn't scum have a clear preference?

[skitter30]

If scum she's repped into a difficult position, I don't think making some wild "scum wouldn't do this" plays isn't out of her scumrange at all

If scum, she's trying to save monkey yesterday assuming he would be able to recover on future days and probably endgame with her

Why she decides to push me over Fairy Child or someone else is the question, since I was probably harder to push than maybe 2 or 3 slots in the game?

But it can be explained if scum!her thinks she can manage the push onto me since there's enough players

open

to the idea of me being scum, and after I flip, people argue scum!skitter wouldn't do that, she wouldn't want IC!Hectic to tunnel her etc etc

it's not out of my scumrange but it's not something i would do - my entire scumgame revolves around optics, and defending partner-hem looks incredibly awful in the event that he flips

you need a better explanation for why i push you over fairy child because pushing you doesn't make sense in the narrative that you're pushing me for and the bolded doesn't cut it

[Lukewarm]

think hectics town for past reasons and also the flipflop onto hem without like any justification

uhhhhhh i think this is more likely to come from scum than town, no?

Wouldn't scum either be trying to save their scum buddy, OR be trying to get town cred for their elimination?

Flip flopping without reason, does neither of those things.

Like, at the time you said

i think town-him actually has stronger feelings on one or the other than just 'eh whichever one i can get'

Wouldn't scum have a clear preference?

Either option would have made more sense then the flip flop

Show clear preference for Child to try to save Hem OR show clear preference for Hem for the town cred

[skitter30]

think hectics town for past reasons and also the flipflop onto hem without like any justification

uhhhhhh i think this is more likely to come from scum than town, no?

Wouldn't scum either be trying to save their scum buddy, OR be trying to get town cred for their elimination?

Flip flopping without reason, does neither of those things.

Like, at the time you said

i think town-him actually has stronger feelings on one or the other than just 'eh whichever one i can get'

Wouldn't scum have a clear preference?

i mean he wanted other non-hem wagons and actively tried to get hem to join him on hem so ...

[skitter30]

monkey/johnny was one of his main scumreads all game (see readslists in 220, 362, 633, for example), and hectic admitted to basically looking for reasons to scumread child and that he wasn't inherently scumreading them before that (980)

yet at this stage i've highlighted below, upon HEM repping in and leading wagons (875), he actively wanted child, and was angling for HEM to join him on that wagon. 890 makes no sense coming from town there.

[2] humaneatingmonkey: Prism, Lukewarm
[2] Child of Fairies: T3, Hectic

leading wagons ^

I still prefer a Fairy Child vote

Monkey has some questionable moments like the "i promise you I'm town" + sharp turns on Prism and Infinity when he was originally okay with voting them - I don't agree at all with the only TvT or SvS stance for the Prism/Infinity interaction, not sure why scum can't be combative over such a stance, but doesn't necessarily make monkey scummy, he could just believe it.

Overall it's a ton of effort though and I lean town on other parts like the Fidget assessments

Basically a coin flip

johnny/hem is one of his main scumread and he's leaning child because ...

The responses themselves were

fine

but not explicitly towny

Ydrasse and Monkey; you both seem cool with a Fairy Child vote, wanna help make that happen?

asking his other main scumread to help him with a fairy child vote makes no sense ....

VOTE: monkey

changed my mind

and he switche back to monkey here. child is technically the leading wagon here (938) at 2 votes, but there's very little momentum towards child, and a lot of people want to vote HEM, and daedline is running down.
i actually don't think that switching is inherently scummy or townie, it's basically nai
but given the context that he a child wagon woudl be just about impossible to get through there, i think a vote switch is NAI and could come from either alignment. it should not be read as townie imo

[skitter30]

johnny/hem is one of his main scumread and he's leaning child because ...

eh this was a misstatement, at that precise moment in time he's waffling on HEM but i dislike how he qualifies it as 'basically a coinflip' but settles on wanting to vote the not-flipped-scum person

[skitter30]

but the clear perference for child is ~887 when there *was* potential room to change the leading wagons

[skitter30]

Realistically T3 is also town for jumping off Fairy Child ship and saying stuff like this about monkey, he just has far less normal content so it's hard to be completely confident

i mean in that exact vc you trying to *strengthen* the fairy child wagon is meant to be read as ...

[skitter30]

I think I'm being dumb.
VOTE: skitter

go on

[skitter30]

Skitter, when you get off of work do you mind tracking through more explicitly your thoughts from flip to your first post today?

i think i've elaborated on hectic
you i don't think bus HEM there + your interactions with him ~hammer and ~post hammer don't look partner-y so town

[Infinity 324]

Asking a scumread to flip another scumread could definitely be town-motivated because you can see if they bus or you might just be wrong on one of the reads

I never got a satisfactory response to this and you keep repeating that same point

[skitter30]

i think noraa is probably town?

[skitter30]

Asking a scumread to flip another scumread could definitely be town-motivated because you can see if they bus or you might just be wrong on one of the reads

I never got a satisfactory response to this and you keep repeating that same point

i don't really feel like this is a thing that people actually do tho ...
and i'm repeating the point because i think it's important

[skitter30]

I feel like a feral cat was locked in my throat overnight, I drove 3 hours back home in 102F with no air conditioning, and this is what I came back to.

To say I am about to blow a gasket is an understatement and I will be back tomorrow.

oh no i hope you feel better soon :(

[Lukewarm]

what are people's thoughts on hectic

Before you ever stated a scum read on Hectic, you asked what people thought about hectic. So you basically tested the waters on it first. Here is everyone's stated read on hectic around that time:

I still stand by this, and I am really leaning towards voting in {hectic, Prism}, although I am not sure which I like more

Hectic I go back and forth on but atm I leantown just because ceding me as town at the point he did was not advantageous.

Hectic has felt towny to me at a couple points earlier but is solidly in my PoE at this point and I've never seen his scumgame

T3 did not answer at the time, but he has hectic as his second lowest read, with only the johnny-slot lower.
Child was not scum reading hectic, but hectic was actively trying to kill child.
Not long before HEM said he was "willing to elim between Fidget, Child, Hectic"


So, you had 1 person actively trying to pass a hectic wagon. 1 person Hectic was currently trying to kill. 3 people with Hectic in their Poe. 1 person flip flopping on hectic (but currently sitting town). And Ydra as a staunch anti-hectic wagon.

You+Hem already had my vote. You would have only needed 2 more out of either child or the people who had Hectic listed in their poe.

I think that Hectic was a fairly possible miselim yesterday, the only slot in the whole game that might have been easier was Child, so you arguing that it was not a viable counterwagon seems silly.

[Infinity 324]

I don't believe that you can't possibly see that action as town motivated just because it doesn't happen that often if the logic of why town would do it makes perfect sense

[skitter30]

i'm not saying it could *never* happen as town but i think that hte scum scenario given his overall progression is significantly more likely

[skitter30]

So, you had 1 person actively trying to pass a hectic wagon. 1 person Hectic was currently trying to kill. 3 people with Hectic in their Poe. 1 person flip flopping on hectic (but currently sitting town). And Ydra as a staunch anti-hectic wagon.

uh the posts you quoted basically show that hectic wasn't viable, two of the people with the most sway there weren't interested?

like:
you - yes
prism - says leans town
infinity - says in poe but like i don't think she would have actually voted
ydra - anti
hectic - obviously anti

child - unknown

unclear why t3 would move from johnny to hectic given that monkey had a lot more momentum

like it's technically possible but if both prism + ydrasse + hectic don't wnat it and infinity is inclined otherwise i'm relying on exactly HEM/you/child/t3/myself to get it through which is, uh, kinda unlikely

i don't know what child was thinking and i think t3 would stick with HEM. like relying on that exact group of people to push through a hectic wagon seems a little shoot-for-the-stars-y, if i wanted a cw i'm p sure like child/t3/whoever else prism was scumreading outside of HEM would be a lot easier

[skitter30]

like just because there are 5 technical possible votes doesn't mean that it was *likely* or *doable* given: deadline, child's activity, HEM's activity, and the overall inclination towards HEM by the people who were most active

like if i wanted to save HEM i'm not sure this would have been the smartest route to take ...

[skitter30]

You+Hem already had my vote. You would have only needed 2 more out of either child or the people who had Hectic listed in their poe.

like you're saying i'd need to get exactly t3 and child on a 36 hour deadline when child wasn't really active

or get infinity to join when she was obviously inclined otherwise

all while prism was arguing against it

like that's a pretty narrow path to actually getting what i'd want ...

[Lukewarm]

I feel like you are messing with the time line in regards to Infinity. She made it clear that she was against Hectic later on, but when you started your Hectic case, all she had said was that he was in her POE.

963 - You ask people for their thoughts on Hectic

967 - Infinity answers, and she says he "is solidly in my PoE at this point and I've never seen his scumgame"

971 - You start pushing hectic ******

1089 - I still clearly thought Infinity would be okay with a hectic

Spoiler:

Infinity, lets vote hectic!!

1095 - Infinity makes it clear that she has other slots prioritized over Hectic.

[Lukewarm]

unclear why t3 would move from johnny to hectic given that monkey had a lot more momentum

And also, I wonder what could have possibly made you think that T3 might move over to Hectic.

hem is towntelling, but if hem is town then-

VOTE: hem
Limming a townread is better than no elim because we still have astump.