Open 815: Forest Fire Redux [Endgame]

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata is pleased to be here! Nakata normally spends more time talking to cats than to trees, but it seems that Nakata has had a new development in his language skills.

Nakata thinks that eliminating off-wagon is probably best, but Nakata is also aware that there can be strong incentive to bus in this setup due to the nightkills not being flipped and therefore PoE not narrowing so much.

Nakata wouldn’t mind eliminating skitter, but Nakata also thinks that if Nakata can TR skitter then there’s no reason not to eliminate Noraa first. Nakata will catch up soon!

[MURDERCAT]

Vote Count 2.3

[3] skitter30: Hectic, T3, Lukewarm
[0] Satoru Nakata:
[0] Infinity 324:
[0] Prism:
[0] Hectic:
[0] T3:
[0] Lukewarm:
[0] Noraa:

Not voting: Infinity 324, Prism, skitter30, Satoru Nakata, Noraa

With 8 alive it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline expires in

(expired on 2021-06-26 10:52:47).

Mod Notes:
- Noraa is V/LA until the 29th

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata has the impression from the first 4 pages that all of (Infinity 324, Lukewarm, Hectic) are town and that maybe prism is town too

Nakata also thinks his predecessors posts seem towny, but is aware that this will probably not be convincing to the rest of you

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata thinks that Child of Fairies looks quite good in ISO, and Nakata particularly liked the way that they approached the flipped scumslot (suggesting willingness to hammer early on in the game where a back-pedal on that would have looked really awful). Nakata isn’t that smart, but Nakata thinks that if you’re going to bus a buddy in this setup, you don’t half-ass it because that’s a losing strategy. Nakata thinks scum are far more likely to hardbus or to try to defend their buddy.

Nakata thinks that T3 and fidget don’t have very good entrances, but Nakata already gets the sense that votes were hovering around T3’s head and that if, as Nakata’s read through continues, there’s an attempt from Johnny or especially fidget/skitter to end up on T3 as a compromise option, that it probably makes T3 town. Plus Nakata wants to give a little bonus towncred to T3 for being on the hem!wagon.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata thinks that Infinity 324 is obvtown bordering on IC levels by page 7.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata feels sufficiently comfortable with this as of 177. Nakata apologises if skitter is town but Nakata thinks that Fidget’s posts were not very towny. Nakata particularly dislikes in the linked post that Fidget is keen to discredit Hectic’s TRs (of which Nakata knows one was correct, and agreed strongly with two more, lightly with the final one). If said reads are correct, Nakata thinks it would make the game really hard for scum, and Nakata knows that when he rolls scum he will try to sabotage correct TRs from a town player if they make the PoE too tight for scum.

[Satoru Nakata]

VOTE: skitter30

[skitter30]

Uhhhhh i am incredibly unimpressed by this vote
You:
A) seemed to have replaced in with the notion that you wanted to vote me
B) are making up scenarios where i would look worse that i didnt even do (nor did you check if i did them or not), namely if i pushed t3 or not, as you said in the last paragraph of 1353
C) its unclear where your townreads are coming from (why are you even townreading hectic ????)
D) your fidget analysis is very surface level, you decide you dislike one post, and then ignore the rest of the slot's content

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata also dislikes 198 and feels that it is trying to egg on a conflict between Prism and Hectic, who Nakata is aware have strong scumranges (and therefore Nakata is less confident that they’re both town than in his TRs on Infinity/Lukewarm) but who Nakata nonetheless thinks are more likely town than scum.

Nakata would rank the players thusly as of page 10:

Infinity 324
Lukewarm

Hectic
Noraa

Prism

T3

skitter30

[skitter30]

Nakata wouldn’t mind eliminating skitter, but Nakata also thinks that if Nakata can TR skitter then there’s no reason not to eliminate Noraa first. Nakata will catch up soon!

Like how did you go from here to voting me, you didnt even try to townread me or look for reasons to townread me

Ans why settle on noraa, like why is she your second choice
This whole progression is, uh, not very good

[skitter30]

Also i think trying to read this slot ok fidget who isnt here vs me who is is a cop-out

[skitter30]

Meh actually it isnt as bad if you're only on p10 (namelu the bits abt focusing on fidget and not me) but i still think this is somewhat lazy

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata is still reading up and is aware that he is perhaps confirmation biased. However Nakata mostly thinks that a number of players have towntold and that your predecessor was not very towny, plus you were off the D1 wagon which Nakata has seen you do as scum before when believing that your buddy is salvageable. Nakata needs to have more context, but given that you won’t be actually removed from the game if town, Nakata is mostly happy to go for what seems like the easy win and to then let out dictate the lim tomorrow if Nakata is wrong on you. Nakata doesn’t consider himself a premiere town player by any means, but Nakata feels that Occam’s razor is that you’re scum.

[skitter30]

Also i think trying to read this slot ok fidget who isnt here vs me who is is a cop-out

I mo longer think this is scummy but do think its an ineffective way of sorting

[Satoru Nakata]

Also i think trying to read this slot ok fidget who isnt here vs me who is is a cop-out

Nakata is not convinced that this is a post made in good faith given that we are both aware that skitter30 is a very hard read. Nakata thinks that reading a player easier to read occupying the same slot makes a lot of sense, and thinks that skitter30 having a problem with this may be something required by alignment.

[skitter30]

Nakata is still reading up and is aware that he is perhaps confirmation biased. However Nakata mostly thinks that a number of players have towntold and that your predecessor was not very towny, plus you were off the D1 wagon which Nakata has seen you do as scum before when believing that your buddy is salvageable. Nakata needs to have more context, but given that you won’t be actually removed from the game if town, Nakata is mostly happy to go for what seems like the easy win and

to then let out dictate the lim tomorrow if Nakata is wrong on you.

Nakata doesn’t consider himself a premiere town player by any means, but Nakata feels that Occam’s razor is that you’re scum.

I would not have thought my buddy was salvageavle and if i did i would not have tried to push hectic, which wasnt really viable (no matter what lukewarm thinjs)

Defending my buddy via pushing someone who most likelu isnt going to get flipped somewhat defeats the purpose in the narrative you're proposing, no?

And if i ger hectic tomorrow i dont mind so much :shrug: but yeah i'm a little annoyed

[skitter30]

Also i think trying to read this slot ok fidget who isnt here vs me who is is a cop-out

Nakata is not convinced that this is a post made in good faith given that we are both aware that skitter30 is a very hard read. Nakata thinks that reading a player easier to read occupying the same slot makes a lot of sense, and thinks that skitter30 having a problem with this may be something required by alignment.

Contiunie reading

Also i dont know if we're both aware, i dont know who you are. Apparently you know me but expecting ke to know that when you repped in on an alt is kinda silly

[skitter30]

Anyway meeting now, later

[skitter30]

But yeah i'm going to hardpush hectic tomorrow fyi

[Satoru Nakata]

Ans why settle on noraa, like why is she your second choice

Nakata thought this was already clear from when Nakata said that scum are likely either avoiding he D1 wagon or hard bussing. Nakata’s prime candidates for hard bussing would be Prism and/or Hectic from looking at the EoD wagon, but Nakata thinks those slots basically seem town, although Nakata has some degree of paranoia about Prism.

Given those two slots as town, there are only 3 living slots not on the hem!wagon on D1. I know my own alignment, and that leaves you and Noraa. Nakata didn’t like Child of Faries’ third post, so Nakata ISO’d them and then started to feel like they are a friend of the trees. Therefore by PoE of those off the D1 wagon on scum, and combined with Nakata’s impressions of who is town, Nakata is left with the conclusion that you’re likely scum.

[Infinity 324]

Skitt is being way too survivalistic here

[Satoru Nakata]

I would not have thought my buddy was salvageavle and if i did i would not have tried to push hectic, which wasnt really viable (no matter what lukewarm thinjs)

Defending my buddy via pushing someone who most likelu isnt going to get flipped somewhat defeats the purpose in the narrative you're proposing, no?

And if i ger hectic tomorrow i dont mind so much :shrug: but yeah i'm a little annoyed

Nakata will bear this in mind as he continues catching up. Nakata is willing to listen to skitter30 about Hectic, but Nakata fears that he will struggle to do so today while skitter30’s alignment is unconfirmed to him.

Nakata thinks that his posts are clearly those of an alt and that it’s not an unreasonable assumption to think that skittwr30 should realise that we have history together based on his comment in his first post on how if he’s able to get to a TR on her he’d rather spare her and lim Noraa first.

Nakata hopes that skitter30’s meeting goes well and apologises if this is an unpleasant situation for her to be in regarding the game.

[Satoru Nakata]

Hello friend Infinity 324. How would you feel about hammering right now?

[Prism]

Skitter is my like, spitball gun to head top pick here but I have not wanted to say that without actually going back and reading just because it's such a spitball

And also I am not in a position to trust my own spitballs atm

[Prism]

I do oppose hammering but I am not queen of the town and we can't exactly wait a week for me to recover