Townstumps Mafia (Endgame)

[Moongrass]

VOTE: Cyrus

For the record -this- is an opportunistic vote. My voting on Titus was not as that has been a wagon I was gunning for since D2.

One thing I do know is that the nom kill was intended to set up my mislim in the days following. I do not like Cyrus opening D2 with "this seems like a set up" and I do not like house bringing up nom's last post D1 to put gasoline on my wagon today.

[jjh927]

Oh cool

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Cyrus

E-2

[Moongrass]

everyone vote with me before the flip VOTE: quick night phase

If cyrus is scum then I don't know why he'd ask for this unless he already knew he was going to NK Nom.

[mastina]

I'd kinda like to talk to Mastina, NSG, DGB, or either or both heads of the Feys right now, but I don't think any of them are here

I've been here and been reading offline, but I honestly don't have much to say.

I know I

should

.

That I should be reviewing the whole game, because everyone has reason to look town but two players must be scum and thus two of the players who look town, aren't, and that I should be trying to analyze over all of them to see which are the most likely to be genuinely town and which are the most likely to just be scum.

I know that's what I

should

be doing.

But all I have the energy to do is to keep up with the posts being made. I can theoretically interact with the posts being made...but most of the content being posted...isn't something that I really know how to interact with, how to make something tangible out of it.

Heck I almost skipped over replying to you here at all in the first place.

Her blog is in her signature, and it is worth being aware that over 'business as usual' Mastina's IRL state of mind will fluctuate.

When I am placing Mastina in early game, I take a look at the nature and frequency of the posting in her blog, noting that if she hasn't posted in a long while that is a bad sign. Her level of general motivation is a predictor for the level of motivation she can put into a mafia game. Town!Mastina has a higher level of motivation than scum!Mastina. Compare the level of effort with the expected level of effort based on the blog and you have an accurate Mastina read

Reasonably accurate, yes. It's not foolproof but I will confirm that this is a thing and that yes it is accurate enough.

You know what
VOTE: Cyrus

VOTE: cyrus

I will weigh in on this though.

Titus is scum with her scumbuddy House defending her ~= Titus is scum with a wrong-town-House defending her > Titus is town with a scum-House whiteknighting her for the towncred > both Titus and House are town.

That's what I currently feel like. I feel like the world where Titus and House are both town is the least likely world we live in, and that both of the two most likely worlds have Titus as scum. So I'm not moving my vote from there. Titus scum House scum, Titus scum House town, I'm not sure which but I think one of those two is the most likely right now (followed by Titus town House scum), meaning that I don't want Titus to escape the elimination today.

If it's Titus-House, gg easy I guess.
If it's Titus + someone else, it doesn't look like Moongrass is fairly likely. The most likely are cyrus or Mia+Maya Fey.
If it's House + someone else, it also doesn't look like Moongrass is fairly likely. The most likely would probably be cyrus but this is just guesswork.

Regardless, I feel like a Titus elimination is the best, followed by a House elimination, to give us an idea of what world we live in. Titus-scum, House-scum, or the worst case scenario of neither being scum. (In that world, I'd need to look at which 2-person combo was most likely in Moongrass, cyrus, and Mia+Maya Fey because they would legit be the only options. But I'd prefer to cross that bridge if and only if we came to it.)

[jjh927]

I mean, that's not how quick nights work

[mastina]

I think Cyrus could be partners with anyone, actually

Usually that's a sign that they're partners with nobody.

I do not like the cyrus elimination compared to House/Titus eliminations.

It feels like you had Titus and to a lesser extent House dead to rights--I honestly thought your cyrus vote was baiting Titus, and that Titus took the bait, and that you were going to reveal that it was bait for Titus, because I was that sure you were on the right track with Titus's desperation as it were and that the sudden emergence and willingness on her end to spontaneously wagon cyrus was more proof of her being scum.

[jjh927]

You've read the recent pages and don't think that's town!Titus?

[Moongrass]

You don't find Titus' recent posting town indicative?

[Moongrass]

House would be a good compromise though.

[jjh927]

I think Cyrus could be partners with anyone, actually

Usually that's a sign that they're partners with nobody.

I do not like the cyrus elimination compared to House/Titus eliminations.

It feels like you had Titus and to a lesser extent House dead to rights--I honestly thought your cyrus vote was baiting Titus, and that Titus took the bait, and that you were going to reveal that it was bait for Titus, because I was that sure you were on the right track with Titus's desperation as it were and that the sudden emergence and willingness on her end to spontaneously wagon cyrus was more proof of her being scum.

That particular quote was because partners were being ruled out based on how Cyrus interacted with them and I don't think he has much discretion in his voting patterns

And nah, this is a very cooperative Titus that is most likely town aligned

[mastina]

The problem is if we vote cyrus and he flips town, then we lim titus same thing and then me then it's a perfect scumgame.

We have ten alive.

If we eliminate Titus and she flips town, tomorrow we have 7-9 alive, average of 8. (7 if a town causes an extra death, 9 if town prevents a death, 8 if one mafia kill goes through.)

If we eliminate House and he flips town, on D5 we have 5-8 alive, average of 6 (8 if two deaths were prevented, 7 if only one death was prevented, 5 if a town caused an extra death, 6 by default if two mafia kills go through).

In this worst-case scenario, we have 2 eliminations for 3 suspects: you, cyrus, and Mia and Maya Fey. In this worst-case scenario, I quite like those odds. We're guaranteed to have at least two conftown alive at that point, possibly more, and it's possible Not_Mafia generates some extra results by this point in time.

I quite like those odds and I'm reasonably confident in my ability in a 6p mylo to sort 3 slots to find the most likely combos and least likely combos.


In contrast: if we eliminate cyrus and he flips town, tomorrow we have 7-9 alive, average of 8. (7 if a town causes an extra death, 9 if town prevents a death, 8 if one mafia kill goes through.)

We then can only eliminate a maximum of one in Titus/House.

If the one we eliminate also flips town, in mylo, we have the other alive and they are the default elimination--if they were town, then we lose.

Or even worse.

If we eliminate cyrus and then we for whatever reason eliminate, sayyy, Moongrass and both flip town.

We're then left in a 6p mylo with BOTH House AND Titus.

Regardless, I don't like these odds nearly as much.

So I prefer the Titus today House tomorrow, reassess if needed after that approach.

[House]

@House, Why are you reacting as a sad puppy when I suspect you when you said I was one of the best at reading you?

Who enjoys suspicion, especially from those that best know them?

[Mia and Maya Fey]

I just read - lost count how many pages actually - but am my take away is that Titus is very obviously town here and am also inclined to believe that nm got true clears on both Gamma and Mastina.

[jjh927]

Which head is that

[jjh927]

I'm guessing koba

[House]

What is odd is that house assumed a self protective mechanic of the invest PR rather than a modifier like BP which I'd see as more likely.

Not at all odd if you had been paying attention during pregame.

[Not_Mafia]

mastina vote cyrus

[House]

@Gamma, do you want to hear my theory?

Hell yeah!
I’ve played all of AA 5 and 6 (minus 6’s special episode which I’m on the first investigation of) so I’m a sucker for a good Thought Route

The evidence we have

1) Town Stump is convinced it's an autowin
2) There was no kill last night.
3) Not Mafia can clear people.

There are only a handful of roles that warrant the suggestion that not mafia can clear people. Cop, gunsmith and weak roles. Not Mafia logically is one of these.
A cop and a gunsmith could be blocked. So can most weak roles.
That is except for a hider role.
A hider role explains the lack of a nightkill without giving town additional power.
Scum can never shoot not mafia, but not mafia dies if he targets scum.
That is unless he targets a scum who commuted (the scum isn't there to blow him up). The enabler dying loses them that protection but gives more places for not mafia to die upon.
Not mafia is not a crumber and rarely plays a straight game (which is why I think he hammered FMFT so quickly is to hide that). Yet, he consistently straight up says who he targeted. This is in case he dies.

It's near autowin if Not Mafia targets town. If he targets scum tonight we still lose. Not Mafia should be aiming for town tonight in the pool.

An additional blocking or healing role would make this game even more townsided than it already is, so it likely doesn't exist giving us precisely two power roles.

Bingo!

Which is the very role I was advocating for pregame.

[mastina]

I’m half tempted to vote Cyrus because IMO depending on the flip it confirms/denies certain scenarios

cyrus is the worst flip specifically because of what jjh said:
cyrus could be scum with anyone.
If he's scum, it's nice that he flips scum sure but it doesn't narrow things down at all.
If he's town, it doesn't narrow things down at all because nobody is cleared from his townflip.

For the record, here's my breakdown of every possible scumteam:

Titus-cyrus: possible, albeit requiring that Titus is making a desperation bus against cyrus. As a result, not the most likely, but more likely than...
Titus-Moon: unlikely, given the way they have interacted.
Titus-Mia+Maya: definitely possible, as one of the two possibilities I see other than...
Titus-House: has actually astonishingly good logic for why this would be the team backed by both individuals' actions.
Titus-jjh: ahahahahaha

No.

cyrus-Moon: a possible team, admittedly, but not one I favor.
cyrus-Mia+Maya: also possible, but also not one I favor.
cyrus-House: if cyrus is scum, this is the team most likely, but I am doubting cyrus as scum and if this is the team I'd prefer we eliminate House first.
cyrus-jjh: ahahahahaha

No.

Mia+Maya-Moon: Okay this one's possible I guess but not exactly the most probable imo.
Mia+Maya-House: I doubt it. I don't have any concrete reason to doubt it other than gut but I have the doubt there regardless.
Mia+Maya-jjh: ahahahahaha

No.

House-Moon: Incredibly unlikely given their interactions imo.
House-jjh: ahahahahaha

No.

Moon-jjh: pretty much the only jjh team where the answer isn't a laugh with a no, in that it is the only one that is even

possible

. Key word being 'possible'. Not probable, not even plausible imo. It's like a .01%, as close to impossible as it can be without being labeled impossible.

Did I miss any?

'Cause if not.

I think you can see why I favor Titus > House > any other elimination here.

I can go into more details for these teams if you want me to break it down in more detail tho, but I think these teams are pretty self-evident.

[House]

I'm guessing koba

That's Nancy

[Mia and Maya Fey]

I'm guessing koba

You guessed wrong.

[House]

mastina vote cyrus

Visit me, NM.

VOTE: cyrus

[Not_Mafia]

No I'm checking jjh

VOTE: cyrus

[Mia and Maya Fey]

\o/. He’s checking jjh. Xmas came early.