Townstumps Mafia (Endgame)

[Mia and Maya Fey]

\o/. He’s checking jjh. Xmas came early.

I want him checked because I think he’s town and want him confirmed.

[House]

If not mafia is indeed a weak hider and scum do indeed have a roleblocker, then Not Mafia's clears are not confirmed. However, unless the team is exactly Gamma + mastina (unlikely) then Gamma is certainly town. Scum would have had to roleblock not mafia both nights, but this doesn't explain the no kill. Scum wouldn't attempt to kill and block not mafia if they had indeed resolved he was a hider. He also would have died if he was roleblocked. So we can infer that if not mafia is a weak hider, then mastina is town. (if not mafia had been blocked {which is the only way he doesn't die if mastina is scum} then the scum kill goes through).

If scum had a roleblocker, last night wouldn't have been a no kill.

[Mia and Maya Fey]

\o/. He’s checking jjh. Xmas came early.

But nm could also visit us as well. I would absolutely love that,

[House]

TLDR if not mafia is a weak hider then Gamma probtown mastina conftown even with the presence of a roleblocker.

Unless scum targeted him n1.

He was awfully loud about "I'm targeting x" sing d1.

[Mia and Maya Fey]

I think if jjh is confirmed town, it’s an autowin. Anyone disagree?

[Moongrass]

For the love of God NM...

[jjh927]

For the love of God NM...

[Moongrass]

Please check in {Titus, House, Hydra or me} it's a waste to check jjh.

[jjh927]

I do think this will flip scum but honestly we needed the conversation time here and you take that away for the sake of your bit

[Titus]

I think if jjh is confirmed town, it’s an autowin. Anyone disagree?

If cyrus is scum, it's usually an autowin.
If cyrus is town, and jjh is town, it's not autowin but it's pretty close.

If the above is true, scum have to mislynch tomorrow and have not mafia incorrectly target scum tomorrow.

[Mia and Maya Fey]

For the love of God NM...

I think if jjh is confirmed town, it’s an autowin. Anyone disagree?

Do you disagree with this or not? We need him to be confirmed here.

So I don’t understand why you have an issue with this?

[Titus]

Please check in {Titus, House, Hydra or me} it's a waste to check jjh.

I'd actually advocate for NM checking the hydra. The goal is to remove the town from the theoretical scumpool to create an autowin, not kill not mafia.

[mastina]

Titus, you're missing that I think scum would have made the assumption that NM was a weak hider or similar based on how telegraphed his targets were, and so if they wanted to remove him they would need to go for his target

I'm targetting nomnomnomnom tonight

Makes you think, doesn't it?

Granted N_M made more 'targeting' posts after that, butstill, it's at least possible scum thought he was a hider on nom.

For the record--I would explicitly expect that to make Titus be scum here as the players most likely to try and kill the hider hide target are imo most to least, Titus > House > Mia+Maya > Moongrass I guess >>>>>>> cyrus >>>>>> jjh. (I would expect jjh to not do so.)

Granted, I feel the need to specify:

I am deliberately avoiding PR speculation. I obviously have my thoughts on the subject, but it is explicitly anti-town to engage in this line of reasoning by and large.

By that I mean:
It is okay to say, "I believe that *lengthy speculation* is what the scumteam believed, and the scumteam believing *lengthy speculation*, took these actions."
It's not okay to speculate "I believe *lengthy speculation* is what has happened here", to give the scumteam any hints, if that makes sense.

Speculating what the scumteam was probably thinking is good; speculating what probably happened is bad because it can help the scumteam and doesn't really give us anything we don't already have right now.

[House]

I'm just rereading the fake guilty from House on Cyrus and I feel it looks really bad for both parties

Yeah, we totally choreographed that exchange.

[Titus]

I'm just rereading the fake guilty from House on Cyrus and I feel it looks really bad for both parties

Yeah, we totally choreographed that exchange.

Is this a resignation or sarcasm?

[Moongrass]

Ok fine check jjh, I just don't understand why he's scumread as broadly as he is. Hydra is fine, I'm fine.

[jjh927]

I'm just rereading the fake guilty from House on Cyrus and I feel it looks really bad for both parties

Yeah, we totally choreographed that exchange.

Like, I'm sure House knows his way around scum theatre but I think Cyrus would fail the audition for background tree #5

[House]

Like, I'm sure House knows his way around scum theatre but I think Cyrus would fail the audition for background tree #5

That would answer the whole sig bet thing. House would never approve that coming off from a ban but if it was just spontaneous from Cyrus, them's the breaks.

And why wouldn't I tell him to knock it off in scum chat instead of make a scene over it?

[Mia and Maya Fey]

Please check in {Titus, House, Hydra or me} it's a waste to check jjh.

Why is it a waste? A confitown jjh can help a town autowin more than any other player. And I agree with Titus that it’s optimal to confirm town and I really think my initial paranoia on jjh may have been wrongly founded because of Happy Face. I think scum!jjh would have stayed on Titus.

[Titus]

Like, I'm sure House knows his way around scum theatre but I think Cyrus would fail the audition for background tree #5

That would answer the whole sig bet thing. House would never approve that coming off from a ban but if it was just spontaneous from Cyrus, them's the breaks.

And why wouldn't I tell him to knock it off in scum chat instead of make a scene over it?

Make the best out of a bad situation.

[mastina]

Scum would target Mastina for a nightkill because Not Mafia said he would target her and scum had all the same reason you have right now to suspect he is a weak hider

Also I am a NRG reviewer so I have a good understanding of what is Normal. (This game doesn't exactly apply for what'd be Balanced in a Normal, but if that were needed, I could give insight there, too, even tho I suspect it's less useful knowledge.)

Also, I can be an annoyingly persistent and stubborn voice of reason.

Also, I can actually be relied upon to do the deep delves into the most likely combos when push does come to shove, weighing the different possibilities and finding the ones that are most probable.

I wouldn't be surprised to be the nightkill if y'all flip cyrus and he ends up town, just as an insurance policy against me persuading you to make the actually better calls for the elimination.

[Moongrass]

Ok fine check jjh, I just don't understand why he's scumread as broadly as he is. Hydra is fine, I'm fine.

[House]

But seriously, House faked a tracker guilty on Cyrus, who reacts with a bit of nonsense and the assertion that it's a fake guilty without even considering that House could be scum OR claiming a role

How does that happen organically

If I had faked a guilty on a buddy, I wouldn't walk it back.

I'd walk back the claim after the hammer and coast on the town cred.

[Not_Mafia]

I'll compromise

If cyrus flips town, I'll check jjh
If cyrus flips scum, I'll check Feydra

[Mia and Maya Fey]

I do think this will flip scum but honestly we needed the conversation time here and you take that away for the sake of your bit

I think we shouldn’t rush this day. I haven’t even eaten yet. And just kind of skimmed the 10+ pages and want to go over them more thoroughly later.