I suppose I can say it this way: I find it town-indicative for Titus, but I find the posting of everyone to be town-indicative, so I have to look beyond what looks town indicative to delve into the possible scumteam combos and what the players are doing given the possible scumteam combos and what they hope to accomplish with their approach.In post 3333, Moongrass wrote:You don't find Titus' recent posting town indicative?
It's actually a bit of a return to my mastin2 days rather than my mastina days, but in this specific case, I actually felt it was necessary to, so to speak, regress towards that standard, again, because everyone looks town and yet two players by necessity aren't. Two players who to me, look to be town, cannot actually be town.
Trying to weigh surface-level feels for which players feel the most town, and then voting off the ones who feel the least town, just...doesn't feel like it's the way we win here. I genuinely feel the way to win is to look at all the players who look town, and then analyze their possible scumteams, eliminate the impossible pairs, and then judge off of the remaining possible pairs which are the ones which look the most likely to be true, off of what the players are doing rather than how they look when doing it.
My possible scumteam pairings are (not necessarily ordered most to least mind you):
Titus-House
House-cyrus
Titus-Mia+Maya
House-Mia+Maya
cyrus-Mia+Maya
Moongrass-cyrus (nothing eliminating them as a pair but I think Moongrass is town)
Moongrass-Mia+Maya (nothing eliminating them as a pair but I think Moongrass is town)
Titus-cyrus (almost impossible but not quite)
These are the only teams that I see as possible.
And if you look at the play of each individual in question keeping in mind that these are the only possible pairs.
I struggle to see cyrus as scum here in most cases; I see Titus and House both maneuvering in ways that feel like they are trying to shift the gamestate in a way that is more favorable to their chances of setting up a viable scum endgame. That doesn't mean cyrus can't be scum, and it doesn't mean Titus and House are for sure scum.
But I see Titus positioning in ways that feel like they are setting up for a chance to endgame, and I see House positioning in ways that feel like they are setting up for a chance to endgame, and I see cyrus as just being...cyrus. It's possible cyrus is a pawn of House (in which case, eliminate House first), it's possible that cyrus is just scum left on his own because Nancy and DKKoba don't care enough as scum with their scumbuddy dead on D1 and have abandoned cyrus. But while those are possible, it feels like the best options are House and Titus here.
