Open 815: Forest Fire Redux [Endgame]

[Noraa]

Yeah fast night

LOCKTOWNNNNNNNNN SOUL MASON
it can't be coincidence.

[Noraa]

Sigh
Fwiw i'm sus of both hectic and nakata

Nakata isnt scum. Scum don't just rep in and vote the largest wagon.

[skitter30]

Yeah fast night

LOCKTOWNNNNNNNNN SOUL MASON
it can't be coincidence.

I mean he just got to flip me, idk why he wouldnt

[Prism]

I think skitter's motivation w/ the Hectic push would be a bit different than portrayed but we shall see

[skitter30]

Idk what you're trying to say

[Noraa]

Nvm im not writing hectic's case rn. I want to tell prism something instead.
Prism. You say Super has a very scary scum game right? I read super correctly in my last game with her. Also ydrasse is not super, their play style's are VERY similar. Why do you think it's not right to TR ydrasse here?
I paranoia'd myself to hell and back with super and I feel the exact same here. Everyone is suspicious of ydrasse just like Super was scum's counter wagon. I don't think that we should treat them with more caution just because they have better scum games. Well we should but not exactly. Like when they're sounding towny, that's just town? I haven't seen ydra's scum game in a hot sec but I don't think it would be much different from supers

[Noraa]

I think skitter's motivation w/ the Hectic push would be a bit different than portrayed but we shall see

twilight trolling here has no point. I counted the votes and that was hammer.

[Noraa]

Nvm im not writing hectic's case rn. I want to tell prism something instead.
Prism. You say Super has a very scary scum game right? I read super correctly in my last game with her. Also ydrasse is not super, their play style's are VERY similar. Why do you think it's not right to TR ydrasse here?
I paranoia'd myself to hell and back with super and I feel the exact same here. Everyone is suspicious of ydrasse just like Super was scum's counter wagon. I don't think that we should treat them with more caution just because they have better scum games. Well we should but not exactly. Like when they're sounding towny, that's just town? I haven't seen ydra's scum game in a hot sec but I don't think it would be much different from supers

To add to this, I nearly gave scum another day to live and perhaps the game. Super was at E-1 and scum was at E-1 the day before lylo. Everyone was very split solely because of paranoia of Super. I think that's the same thing here. The overall gamestate and my own read match my last games perfectly. It's a literal duplicate.

[Noraa]

I was seconds away from unvoting scum but my unvote got pedited by super's vote on scum and we won the game. Just like that. I seriously think ydrasse is just town here.

[Noraa]

I want to say I understand everyone's paranoia on her but I don't really tbh. Like I felt some but it was so similar to the feeling that super gave me that I really just don't get it at this point.

[Prism]

I don't really want to teach you sample size/stats right now sorry

[MURDERCAT]

Vote Count 2.FINAL

[5] skitter30: Hectic, T3, Lukewarm, Satoru Nakata, Infinity 324

[0] Satoru Nakata:
[0] Infinity 324:
[0] Prism:
[0] Hectic:
[0] T3:
[0] Lukewarm:
[0] Noraa:

Not voting: Prism, skitter30, Noraa

With 8 alive it takes 5 to eliminate.

Mod Notes:
- Noraa is V/LA until the 29th

[MURDERCAT]

Only one left! You all turn to look at skitter30...

Spoiler: flip

Hey, this tree is made of tree! Crash!

Welcome to Open 815: Forest Fire Redux!

You are a

Tree

and are aligned with the

Forest

.

- Upon being eliminated via the vote you become Tree-stumped. This means you will still be allowed to post in the thread, but

you will not have a vote

.
- Being killed in any other way overrides this ability and will cause you to be removed from the game.

Win Condition:

You win when only

Forest

aligned players are left alive.

skitter30 has been stumped.

Night 2 begins now and ends in (expired on 2021-06-19 16:54:42).
All players must PM me privately to request a fast night for it to be granted.

[MURDERCAT]

Vote Count 3.0

[0] Satoru Nakata:
[0] Infinity 324:
[0] Prism:
[0] Hectic:
[0] T3:
[0] Lukewarm:
[0] Noraa:

Not voting: Hectic, T3, Lukewarm, Infinity 324, Prism, Satoru Nakata, Noraa

With 7 alive it takes 4 to eliminate.

Deadline expires in

(expired on 2021-06-26 17:01:14).

Mod Notes:
- Noraa is V/LA until the 29th

[MURDERCAT]

Day 3 dawns.

[Prism]

Sorry to everyone who wanted fast night. I wanted time to recover, and hopefully the slowdown, wanted or not, was helpful to others who probably needed it.

I'm at about ~70% and will try to start reading tonight, but it may have to wait until tomorrow.

[Prism]

I think skitter's motivation w/ the Hectic push would be a bit different than portrayed but we shall see

Idk what you're trying to say

This was about what a hypothetical scum-Skitter's motivation would have been in pushing the slot. I don't think it would have been as straightforward as just trying to get Hectic through, but this is now an obvious counterfactual.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata would like to extend his apologies to friend skitter30. As Nakata mentioned, he is not the sharpest mind and sometimes he makes mistakes. Nakata understands if skitter30 is sceptical of him, because he admittedly would do exactly this if he were scum. Nakata doesn't know if him saying this helps at all or if it makes things worse. Nakata does think he might have been slightly less likely to pursue skitter30 so openly if he were scum and knew that skitter30 would flip town, though.

Nakata also believes that this skitter30!flip strongly implies that scum did bus on D1. He still thinks that the Noraa slot is probably town, but is aware that he needs to do his due diligence. Nakata would now very much like to listen to skitter30's reasons to be suspect of Hectic, and Nakata also feels more uncomfortable with Prism. However, Nakata's gut instinct is still that T3 seemed like the 'worst' slot from D1 if skitter30 was town, and would like to rule out that solution being both simple and correct before letting paranoia take over too much on Prism or Hectic.

Nakata stills think Infinity 324 is very town, and that Lukewarm is strongly town. Nakata wants to re-examine both to be sure he's not trusting too much in a lazy tone read, but that the actions of both and how they've engaged in the thread are also towny. Nakata is willing to sheep skitter30 today, even if it's on him, if skitter30 does not feel she will be able to shake her concerns by the end of the day and if skitter30 is likely to want Nakata dead tomorrow, where said suspicion would likely be losing.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata disagrees that skitter30’s posting doesn’t feel survivalists and thinks that skitter30!town would have engaged with Nakata in a less confrontational way if skitter30 were town.

Sorry i shouldnt be so confrontational, i apologize

Nakata wanted to address that an apology is and was entirely unnecessary. Nakata wasn't upset by skitter30's approach to him, he just thought it was very scum!indicative for her, because Nakata's more typical experiences with skitter30 have involved her trying to sort slots that are maybe unclear to her through prodding them for motivations rather than what Nakata felt was a stronger response in this game than the typical to him. Nakata also felt skitter30 did feel very survivalistic and couldn't tell why should would present as strongly in that sense if she were town.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata thinks that the most likely scum at this point is T3. Nakata is not impressed with his ISO now that he knows skitter30 is town. Nakata would appreciate Lukewarm weighing in as he believes lukewarm is familiar with T3, and Nakata has seen T3 prove to be tasty limbait in other games. If Lukewarm thinks T3 is town, Nakata would like to hear the reasons why.

[Satoru Nakata]

VOTE: T3

[Prism]

I just had a long drive really reflecting and thinking on the events of the game, which I haven't been able to do since I've been bedridden.

I strongly feel this game ends with a Child/Noraa flip.

The short of it is:
-HEM never actually voting that slot despite it being his best chance at a counterwagon. There's further depth to this but it's clear imo that he wasn't confident in his ability to win the game solo.
-Noraa's claims about how much she read the game beforehand have been inconsistent and perhaps even contradictory (She was sure her slot was scum, but also sure my slot was scum, claims to have read minimally)
-Ydrasse simply doesn't come out that strong yesterday playing solo, even with the time to regroup. Satoru is not at all waiting to feel out the day but 100% just jumps in, which requires a strict plan over the flexibility that most scum opt for in this case
-T3 I'm less sold on but I suspect he hasn't developed the depth & confidence to be able to hammer a claimed townlean over something more lukewarm (hue) or scumleaning
-Hectic perhaps got scared of the result of a Child town flip but I doubt it, he also recognizes that the HEM slot is only going to pick up steam
-Infinity/Lukewarm are still hardtown

There's a lot I want to doublecheck here when my processing ability is back: Noraa meta, T3 meta, rework over Hectic, Ydrasse meta, in basically that order

[Lukewarm]

I am coming in into Day 3 with Nora as my top choice for elimination.

[Prism]

Noraa, do you mind chonologically explaining what reads in the game you developed and how much you had read at the point you developed them?

On a separate note, drawing a comparison to Dandelion was decent but there is a crucial difference between this game and Tenet, namely that I successfully used that persuasion to get scum flipped on Day 1. You seem to have gone back in ISO and focused solely on why I am scum, and painted those interactions about alternative votes accordingly, rather than working forward. It is very difficult for me to believe that even in ISO it is unclear how relentless I was in shoving an HEM vote, and I can only think you are working in reverse. While others correctly pointed out that in context these "alternatives" were very grudging, the strength of the assertion that I wanted people to go elsewhere is not something I think can come from working forwards.

Finally, a point I missed above with Child was the way Child engaged with me. Child was incredibly attentive to my posts; when I suggested it was time for more breadth they immediately reacted and gave a full wall. When they ignored my questions and instead continued to push me with a one liner, and I hardchallenged them, they immediately understood exactly what I meant and openly took up my suggestions for alternative points on me. They noticed I was, in their words, incredibly rude to Infinity but did not step in, defend her, or assert that others should say more in the game. This makes me suspect several aspects of this were strategic, and that they feared not just that I would get upset but that I would turn an aggressive eye toward them.

[Prism]

All of this is drawn from memory, so I will have to doublecheck much of it when I am back to 100%, and I appreciate the patience in the meantime for dealing with any incoherency or inaccuracy as a result.