Newbie 2067 - Pizza! - End!

[cyrus62]

My worries are hc could be the missing piece to the puzzle.

[cyrus62]

page top haha@mod

[Save The Dragons]

i kinda like 1040. i beginning to think i'm just wrong about everything this game. want to take a look over everything and see if i come up with any different conclusions.

VOTE: haschel for now

[Pavowski]

i beginning to think i'm just wrong about everything this game

Welcome to my world!

[Save The Dragons]

i beginning to think i'm just wrong about everything this game

Welcome to my world!

STD is my top scum read right now

no argument here

[Lukewarm]

I think I am getting a bit more comfortable with my solve of STD + [Pav or HC].

In this version of events STD and I, as fellow mafia, are clumsy enough to be on the same wagon with plenty of time left on the clock on d1, and then out of the gate try to bus each other before there's any pressure on either of us on d2? Seriously, as of the time of you posting this AND me posting this morning, there are 3 votes on the board, and if I'm scum with STD, this theory alleges 2 of the 3 are scum bussing each other.

I mean, I could see sussing him or me, but putting us on a team together is a heck of a call.

I mean, yeah that solve very much is based on me being suspicious of the two of you independently of one another. Like, even if you keep reading the post you quoted, you can see that I am poe'ing my way down to it, and state my town reads for how I got there. If we flip std, and he comes up scum, then yeah - I'm gonna look and see which of [you, hc] makes more sense to be std's partner, but I am not going rule you out based on associations preflip.

And by the way, the two of you cross voting is a possibility I will take into consideration. I mean, I already am somewhat.

So, I was actually thinking that the scum team might have been [STD, Pav] but now they are crossvoting, so that seems less likely to me now

The cross vote is what moved me from STD > Pav > HC to STD > HC = Pav

[Lukewarm]

In fact, it's the first thing Luke has done in this game that has pinged me as particularly scummy.

{snip}
his logic putting me on a team with STD escapes me and feels out of character, so I have to lean him into the scum side. Then again, Haschel seems to be his 2nd scum read, and I agree with that, so...

And this take coming from you pings me pretty hard...

Like "If luke is considering a scum bus plan, then maybe he is just scum" does not feel like the most genuine take for you to have.

[Lukewarm]

Like, STD left day 1 as the number 1 suspect for over half the lobby. So the scum team setting up for a STD bus seems very much in the realm of possibility. Like if they thought std was going down today no matter what, they would want to leave his partner looking as good on the flip as possible, and cross voting out the gate is a way to do that.

I don't think that your crossvote is scum indicative for you - but I don't think that it should hard clear you from my PoV either, and I find it suspicious that you are trying to frame it like it should.

[Pavowski]

In fact, it's the first thing Luke has done in this game that has pinged me as particularly scummy.

{snip}
his logic putting me on a team with STD escapes me and feels out of character, so I have to lean him into the scum side. Then again, Haschel seems to be his 2nd scum read, and I agree with that, so...

And this take coming from you pings me pretty hard...

Like "If luke is considering a scum bus plan, then maybe he is just scum" does not feel like the most genuine take for you to have.

Honestly Luke, I have been feeling you as town all the way in this game, because I agree with just about everything you post. But I then find myself second-guessing why I read you that way, because I don't like it when I agree with somebody 100%. So I've been eyes-up for anything scummy from you in the meantime. Basically, I like to follow my gut, and you throw my gut way off. So maybe I'm wrong in how I interpreted this read from you. I just happen to know that your scumread of me is wrong. (Which is easy enough to say, I'll grant, but I'm saying it.)

At any rate, a couple posts on from that one, I concede that you're -- if not 100%, then certainly 75%, to use meaningless numbers -- cleared by big C's check on you. So I must put you in the "almost certainly town" column for now and quit beefing with you.

Like, STD left day 1 as the number 1 suspect for over half the lobby. So the scum team setting up for a STD bus seems very much in the realm of possibility. Like if they thought std was going down today no matter what, they would want to leave his partner looking as good on the flip as possible, and cross voting out the gate is a way to do that.

I don't think that your crossvote is scum indicative for you - but I don't think that it should hard clear you from my PoV either, and I find it suspicious that you are trying to frame it like it should.

I wouldn't say it should clear me; that would be asking too much. From where I stood, though, it seemed like you were viewing it as a bus, and that's what I took issue with.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Getting caught up now.

[cyrus62]

Look lukewarm and hc are off the table for me today and I think pav is town so try again.

[Pavowski]

7 days 48 hours between Prods means he just has to post once every 45 hours ,= 4 times on day 2
So it's scummy not to post makes it hard to form reads

My worries are hc could be the missing piece to the puzzle.

Look lukewarm and hc are off the table for me today and I think pav is town so try again.

*sigh*

[cyrus62]

7 days 48 hours between Prods means he just has to post once every 45 hours ,= 4 times on day 2
So it's scummy not to post makes it hard to form reads

My worries are hc could be the missing piece to the puzzle.

Look lukewarm and hc are off the table for me today and I think pav is town so try again.

*sigh*

I'm actually trying to give hc some leeway due to his rl issue i lost my grandfather in 2010 and my grandmother 2019 so I feel bad.

[cyrus62]

I will say this i know lukewarm isn't a pr other wise my result would have been different.

[Lukewarm]

Warning. Wall incoming

[Lukewarm]

To be clear, I am suspicious of Pav independently of STD - He was riding in null reads for most of Day 1, but I after a re-read during the night, and also the start of today, he has moved lower.

I feel like he has been dancing around me in a weird way all game for some reason. It feels almost like he is actively avoiding actually giving me a read.

Spoiler: All serious times Pav has talked about me before this STD/Pav partner possibility discussion

Luke is sharp so I'm gonna have my eye on him but I have zero "read" yet. If he's mafia, I'm skurrd.

Luke - not sure yet.

Luke you buying Cyrus's toaster leavings then?

Actually

VOTE: strange

Haschel wagon averted with this vote

There is a *lot* of Cyrus/Luke interaction which is basically white noise to me. I don't think there is anything else to be learned from Cyrus, or interactions with him, until our next "day". It is somewhat interesting that Luke seems to agree with this but continues to engage. Making this actually the first time Luke has pinged me in a distinctly scummy way.

913 looks good for Luke but is not conclusive, unless I'm misunderstanding mechanics.

Our last game together, I managed to get a lot of town reads, and then successfully led back to back scum eliminations day 1 and day 2. I could see scum!pav coming into this game worried about me accumulating town reads based off of that experience. (Little does he know, that was just a way above average showing - I only have like a 50% win rate lol).

[Lukewarm]

Then, I was also suspicious of how he danced around the voting list he made at the start of the day. Like, he made the list, put it out there, and offered absolutely no analysis on it in post 914. Literally just drops the list, and says "draw your own conclusions."

And then, when no one really did, he then tried to steer me back to the list - still without giving any of his own thoughts, but pushing me to do it first.

Spoiler:

Well since you and I are here early, Luke, any thoughts on the votes from yesterday? I have some inklings but I'm curious if I'm overthinking and reading too much into it

It was not until after even that did not work, that he finally pointed somethings out himself. He found Zyla, Haschel, and Azeru all suspicious for their voting patterns. -- But once I responded however, he adjusted his own views to match exactly with mine.

I explained why I was not suspicious of Zyla's voting pattern, and then he is no longer suspicious of it. I said I town read Azeru, and he dropped that suspicion as well. I said that I was still somewhat suspicious of Haschel, and well:

Given the points we've already made this morning, I find the Haschel vote more interesting.

This exchange pings me for 2 reasons:

First, it felt like he was trying to get the town to come up with suspicions first, so he could agree and tag along onto a wagon - Like he positioned himself to be able to shout "that is exactly what I was thinking" if anyone voiced a concern in regards to any of [Zyla, Azeru, Haschel], BUT he did not want to be the first one to say it. Like he was pointing people in that direction, but did not want to appear like he was leading a push, if a push formed on any of them.

Secondly: if he was being truthful about his read on me before this, that I am somehow completely unknowable, and a solidly null read that he is scared of the possibility of me being scum, then why would he then immediately change his angle to match mine? If he is cautious of me, shouldn't he be cautious of my logic in regards to [Zyla, Azeru, Haschel]? This further backs up my first point too. Like, he was just fishing for someone to agree with to begin with, and I just happened to be the one on at the time.

[Lukewarm]

And finally, this whole exchange over the possibility that the scum team is [std, pav]

If I am right that he has been actively avoiding giving me a read, then he has been looking for a reason to scum read me, and he thought he found one, and jumped on it.

Spoiler:

I mean, I could see sussing him or me, but putting us on a team together is a heck of a call.

In fact, it's the first thing Luke has done in this game that has pinged me as particularly scummy. And that's not an OMGUS, that is "I actually don't understand the logic that tells you STD and me could be teamed up."
{snip}
Luke I continue to find impossible to read. He could be the towniest town or the scummiest scum, and neither would surprise me, because his posts are basically always measured and analytical and hard to argue with. I *hope* he's on our side, but -- see above -- his logic putting me on a team with STD escapes me and feels out of character, so I have to lean him into the scum side. Then again, Haschel seems to be his 2nd scum read, and I agree with that, so...

And his 1058 response to my 1055-1057 certainly does not help.

Spoiler:

In fact, it's the first thing Luke has done in this game that has pinged me as particularly scummy.

{snip}
his logic putting me on a team with STD escapes me and feels out of character, so I have to lean him into the scum side. Then again, Haschel seems to be his 2nd scum read, and I agree with that, so...

And this take coming from you pings me pretty hard...

Like "If luke is considering a scum bus plan, then maybe he is just scum" does not feel like the most genuine take for you to have.

Honestly Luke, I have been feeling you as town all the way in this game, because I agree with just about everything you post. But I then find myself second-guessing why I read you that way, because I don't like it when I agree with somebody 100%. So I've been eyes-up for anything scummy from you in the meantime. Basically, I like to follow my gut, and you throw my gut way off. So maybe I'm wrong in how I interpreted this read from you. I just happen to know that your scumread of me is wrong. (Which is easy enough to say, I'll grant, but I'm saying it.)

At any rate, a couple posts on from that one, I concede that you're -- if not 100%, then certainly 75%, to use meaningless numbers -- cleared by big C's check on you. So I must put you in the "almost certainly town" column for now and quit beefing with you.

Like, STD left day 1 as the number 1 suspect for over half the lobby. So the scum team setting up for a STD bus seems very much in the realm of possibility. Like if they thought std was going down today no matter what, they would want to leave his partner looking as good on the flip as possible, and cross voting out the gate is a way to do that.

I don't think that your crossvote is scum indicative for you - but I don't think that it should hard clear you from my PoV either, and I find it suspicious that you are trying to frame it like it should.

I wouldn't say it should clear me; that would be asking too much. From where I stood, though, it seemed like you were viewing it as a bus, and that's what I took issue with.

First he claims to have had me as "town all the way in this game" despite never once giving me a town read or even saying that any thing I have done all game is townie.

I also find the "I don't like it when I agree with somebody 100%" line suspicious, given we just talked about [Zyla, Azeru, and HC] - and he had found all 3 of their voting patterns suspicious, I tr Zyla and Azeru, and suddenly her also found HC the most interesting one - so at least in that instance, we agreed 100% because he changed his take to match mine.

And finally, "I concede that you're -- if not 100%, then certainly 75%, to use meaningless numbers -- cleared by big C's check on you. So I must put you in the "almost certainly town" column for now and quit beefing with you." This is such a change in direction. Both from him just saying I was a scum lean in 1040, and him just saying that the clear check was "not conclusive" in 988 - That is gave me whip lash. -- Like he regretted poking me in the first place, and is trying to walk it back

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: Pav

[HockeyFan]

Hey luke quick question,

So it seems

almost

everyone has been pushing STD here so shouldnt u be Tring them a bit because u said this(in 690) when strange was getting pushed by everyone?

[Lukewarm]

Hey luke quick question,

So it seems

almost

everyone has been pushing STD here so shouldnt u be Tring them a bit because u said this(in 690) when strange was getting pushed by everyone?

690 had nothing to do with people scum reading strange? - STD is an SE, and regardless, he does not look completely aimless, and that was my point in 690. Strange was approaching being at e-1 a bit poorly and aimlessly, and I thought that if they had a partner, they would have someone giving them pointers on how to avoid that.

[cyrus62]

lukewarm how many games does this make for you?

[cyrus62]

ok i cant seem to be able to put stuff from my old game here i wanted you guys to look at my play there and then to look at lukes play here

[cyrus62]

in cross roads i acted so upset that town put a pr to e1 but i wasn't upset . i even went off and said dont pr hunt . why did i act this way i was trying to be super townie . so what i am saying hc is off the table till at least tomorrow but if you guys are sus of lukewamrs play go ahead and vote.

[cyrus62]

i think pav is town .