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[Cupcake Butterfly]

Spoiler: mastina

(I am legit having a hard time getting into this game tho; it is undoubtedly the worst towngame I've had in a very very very long time. I genuinely wouldn't mind being voted out especially if there were an autowin or damn near close to one.)

By worst towngame, do you mean how you view the town's ability this game, or your ability to navigate it?

My ability to navigate it.

I'm literally deadweight, I'm literally worthless.

I don't have real thoughts, I don't have real reasons, I've barely posted at all so I can't be obvtown either, I don't see how I could look town and I don't see how I can really be helping town.

I can say that I think the wagon on scum D1 was all town--it was not a full 7 elimination but rather a plurality elimination. While it's possible scum forgot about plurality and didn't realize the elimination would go through, I find it more likely that the names on the wagon were all town. This would be good analysis if I were the first one to point it out (I immediately upon the scumflip thought "okay this entire wagon is town"), but by the time I got around to this thread no less than two other people had beaten me to the punch in making that exact conclusion.

I can say that I feel that MistyX is town, but I've legit got nothing to back that, other than just liking MistyX and smiling at their contributions and liking them and thinking the interactions came from town.

I can say that I am trusting the collective townreads on ssbm and buy the choice in items as being a fairly protown approach, but I am also not unique in this with everyone having already said as much pretty much.

I don't have any actual meaningful tangible contribution to give, so I feel worthless. I wasn't on the D1 scum elimination, I've barely posted, I've done just about zero anything. Heck even me calling Flea town was purely me trying hard to force a read off of feelings more than evidence so I don't even really deserve credit for getting that read right.

I AM trying tho, I'm just, not doing as well as I want to.

What would get you into reading the game more critically? We've actually limmed scum, nothing in Kitty's ISO tips you off in one direction or another?

Why back the VFP wagon now? Do you really think town hit scum twice EoD1?

I'm having trouble visualizing two thought patterns existing within you. You don't seem confident in your understanding of the game, but enough to assert votes and attach scumreads/associatives loosely. What is your goal?

@CB, you having Gamma in your PoE really worries me because you are not a noob, so how could you not know that Alisae is not only decent at playing scum, e’s one of the few people who actually love playing it?

If it weren’t for that Misty vote, I might be inclined to think Flea kill was a frame up.

I've seen Ali powerplay mech as scum, I've hydra'd with scum-them, but we may have rep'ed out? Don't recall entirely. I didn't want to write Ali off as town just because they understood the mech spectacularly, I wanted to read them via 1-on-1. The rep out stunted that approach.

As for Gamma? I liked that they challenged Mastina's take on my slot, I feel like scum-Gamma could've easily ran with it. I feel that scum-Gamma can be either more aggressive or more avoidant in thread. I haven't asserted a townread much yet because I wanted to view Gamma's progression post-wagon so I can better assess whether they had perfect knowledge of Kitty's alignment or didn't - without my input influencing them in any manner, since I'm confident they know my main too.

Btw iso'ing Flea, unless the scumteam is cyrus + someone who wouldn't tell cyrus not to pull such a n00bscum move, I'm thinking Flea was killed because the scumteam thought Flea was either a role or because the scumteam thought Flea was just that obvtown and were threatened by faer. (As far as I can tell, Flea gave suspicion to only cyrus and maybe imaginality. So the possibilities are; either cyrus is scum and killed Flea as the main threat to him and wasn't told to not do this by his scumbuddy, or Flea wasn't killed for faer reads, leaving the possibilities as "pr hunt" or "threat due to Flea being Flea".)

If it is cyrus + someone who wouldn't tell cyrus better, then the most likely option would be VFP (tho I suppose marcistar would be possible).

If it is someone who thought Flea was a threat in general and/or Flea was a PR, I'd say it's Cupcake Butterfly + VFP (tho I suppose marcistar's possible if marcistar has played with Flea before).

POE-wise that'd imply to me that VFP is scum regardless tho, so I guess back to here;
VOTE: VFP

Am open to other thoughts here tho.

ive never played with flea before im pretty sure

if i was scum vfp would be dead tho

i like the vfp vote
VOTE: vfp

But you're voting VFP now... I gather:
1. For you to be scum, VFP will most certainly die - I guess regardless of his alignment in which case.
2. To take you in good faith, you're town voting scum-VFP or believe so...

But why not entertain the reality of you/VFP TvT?

stuff

you passed the vibe check, any specific strat for tonight or is it based around the bids today - if you're even willing to answer this.

[Something_Smart]

everybody is making sense, HELP

Lol, this isn't the lament I'm used to getting from you. Why's it a problem?

[Cupcake Butterfly]

everybody is making sense, HELP

Lol, this isn't the lament I'm used to getting from you. Why's it a problem?

dont worry, its D2 and we havent even gotten to the weekend, so i virtually have not even begun playing this game yet

im just piecing together what sounds good VS what reasoning is sound

mastina is doing something i tend to do as scum, but i dont want to push that for the moment
just when i start to feel comfortable with Kyouko, they may 1v1 with nancy
im actually paying attention to gamma now and i dont see an issue with them

imaginality was my first solid townread of the game due to how much they boosted me D1, theyve stuck to only a few players in their lips come D2 though
marci is ???
im vibe checking you SS, not expecting much from this though, because youve duped me at least twice before.

and VFP has well-reasoned thoughts thus far, not that i was a fan of them D1, but i definitely do not vibe with that L-1 push... i feel like scum could've easily hammered him and didnt though.

[Cupcake Butterfly]

would me exclaiming

"SS, come fix this shit "

be more accurate to your expectations? lol

[marcistar]

Btw iso'ing Flea, unless the scumteam is cyrus + someone who wouldn't tell cyrus not to pull such a n00bscum move, I'm thinking Flea was killed because the scumteam thought Flea was either a role or because the scumteam thought Flea was just that obvtown and were threatened by faer. (As far as I can tell, Flea gave suspicion to only cyrus and maybe imaginality. So the possibilities are; either cyrus is scum and killed Flea as the main threat to him and wasn't told to not do this by his scumbuddy, or Flea wasn't killed for faer reads, leaving the possibilities as "pr hunt" or "threat due to Flea being Flea".)

If it is cyrus + someone who wouldn't tell cyrus better, then the most likely option would be VFP (tho I suppose marcistar would be possible).

If it is someone who thought Flea was a threat in general and/or Flea was a PR, I'd say it's Cupcake Butterfly + VFP (tho I suppose marcistar's possible if marcistar has played with Flea before).

POE-wise that'd imply to me that VFP is scum regardless tho, so I guess back to here;
VOTE: VFP

Am open to other thoughts here tho.

ive never played with flea before im pretty sure

if i was scum vfp would be dead tho

i like the vfp vote
VOTE: vfp

But you're voting VFP now... I gather:
1. For you to be scum, VFP will most certainly die - I guess regardless of his alignment in which case.
2. To take you in good faith, you're town voting scum-VFP or believe so...

But why not entertain the reality of you/VFP TvT?.

me and vfp could both easily be town, but when i think of him nothing makes me doubt my read on him.. do u have any points u can bring up?
i could try entertaining me and vfp both being town, but what reasons do i have of vfp being town? i dont really see much that screams to me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

There is at least one scum in S&M and Distance, I think they just double bussed though. Triple ISO them with kitty. It seems to me the plan was to steal cop with the dead scum's wallet and save the rest of the money for later auctions when a town MO can no longer "guarantee" that no scum roles make it in. The fewer roles that remain, the less powerful the MO Enhancement becomes and the more likely a random role that benefits scum will slip in. By double bussing d1 they can ride out the game until a good scum power slips through

VOTE: S&M

If this is green I will reconsider Distance.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And if its red, Mastina is still possible but I think that scum!mastina is a red herring that town has taken hold of. Mastina vs. VFP I think is TvT.

[mastina]

So I'm E1 because scum do what they do every game and call me town.

No you're L-1 because this game is incredibly winnable via POE thanks to how D1 played out, and the N1 nightkill can be used to deduce even further the most likely scum to make the kill there in the remaining players, and you're the best fit for that.

VOTE: Mastina because she talked a lot about her vote but a lot of the logic seemed to contain some "in this scenario I think it's most likely VFP" statements where the reason for thinking it's most likely VFP wasn't really laid out.

What's there to lay out when it's player psychology analysis?

I am somewhat familiar with the way most of the players operate in this game when they are scum. What they are likely to do as scum, how they operate as scum, thoughts that are likely to occur to them as scum and thoughts that are unlikely to occur to them as scum.

If Flea was killed because cyrus is scum and cyrus's scumbuddy didn't tell them to not do this, the most likely player to fit that is VFP because VFP is the type of scum player that would analyze cyrus's choice and not see the downside, supporting it, more or less. He would look at it, and either be indifferent to it or more likely "sounds like a good idea" or something to that effect. Where he would see the upsides to the kill but not consider the downsides involved.

If Flea was not killed because cyrus is scum, the possibilities are Flea was killed to PR hunt or Flea was killed for general threat level.

If Flea was killed to PR hunt, the two players most likely to engage in PR hunting are Cupcake Butterfly and VFP. They are the players most likely to try and delve into PR speculation, of where the bids were, and try to kill based off of that. VFP has engaged in this type of behavior before so he tops the charts in this regard.

If Flea was killed for general townness factor between Flea being obvtown and being Flea...VFP is one of the players with the most familiarity with Flea, and the type of player to be most afraid of Flea, and the type of player most likely to approve of a kill on Flea for that reason.

But all of this relies on psychological profiling of the player in question. How do you explain a psychological profile? How do you give details of it? You can't exactly point to past scumgames for a one for one comparison because it's not a tell, there's enough variance in games that it's not going to be a one for one comparison. You can look at the general psychology and basic patterns, but that's about it, and it's those patterns that make me think VFP is the most likely to approve of a Flea kill here.

I can maybe explain the psychology behind the players who wouldn't make the Flea kill as to why they're unlikely to make it. But the unlikely-to-nightkill psychological profiles are pretty damn similar in how fact-lacking they are, so I genuinely don't know how to give more. You're asking me to create extra logic in a place where there's no extra logic to be had.

[mastina]

What would get you into reading the game more critically?

If I knew that I wouldn't be in a slump, now, would I?

We've actually limmed scum, nothing in Kitty's ISO tips you off in one direction or another?

I mean there's not much there but I read it and reading it made me think that VFP was more likely scum.

Why back the VFP wagon now? Do you really think town hit scum twice EoD1?

I don't see why not.

I'm having trouble visualizing two thought patterns existing within you. You don't seem confident in your understanding of the game, but enough to assert votes and attach scumreads/associatives loosely. What is your goal?

I don't see how the two are mutually exclusive in your eyes? Like, they're both true. I HAVE had issues getting into this game. It's getting slightly better, but it's not like I've got lock-solid reads. I have a decent guess. I think my psychological profile of VFP RE: Flea's death has a reasonably high chance of being right, and the dead scum D1 loosely does support the hypothesis. But while it's a good guess, it's basically just that, a guess. I wasn't spearheading a VFP wagon. I voted there. It was others who sheeped me and my vote and my logic, but I didn't campaign to any of them; apparently they just agreed with my theory and thought it was a good one.

Also, not having a good game is no excuse not to try. Just because I'm having issues doesn't mean I'm not still going to try my best and my best right now is voting VFP.

i feel like scum could've easily hammered him and didnt though.

Scum tend to not want to hammer scum when scum died D1.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

DON'T SAY YOUR GUESS NOW. JUST KNOW.

ALSO I'M TERRIBLE AT KEEPING THINGS HIDDEN HEHEHEHEHE

My hype for this game just rose about 20%.

It’s weak but I kind’ve like this post. SS hates playing scum.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Vfp is e-1 btw:

Cyrus, mastina, s&m, distance, marci, by my count

While I'm at it I'll vote VFP. I feel like as the default candidate in a slow game working on plurality like this it's easy for as little as 1 scum to make town!Kitty go through easily.

I also like misty better than smoke/Imaginality at this point, and still am harboring suspicion about VFP's heal votes for MO early game.

VOTE: VFP

This puts him to 2, not sure what happens in a tie in plurality

You tried to stop the Kitty wagon and are not interested in voting VFP today. Interesting.

UNVOTE:

Since he’s at E-1 I’m going to wait a bit. I’m not really a fan of Kyuku trying to stop the Kitty wagon and seemingly suddenly having no interest in voting VFP today.

Well I certainly had no interest in quick hammering him, you're right about that. I have not expressed any disinterest in voting VFP today though. What do you think about

why

I was trying to stop the kitty wagon yesterDay? You seem to be ignoring/not addressing the why - have you seen it?

While I'm at it I'll vote VFP. I feel like as the default candidate in a slow game working on plurality like this it's easy for as little as 1 scum to make town!Kitty go through easily.

I also like misty better than smoke/Imaginality at this point, and still am harboring suspicion about VFP's heal votes for MO early game.

VOTE: VFP

This puts him to 2, not sure what happens in a tie in plurality

Oh nm I think I was looking at VFP's tally in MO not in VC

I think S&M hydra is probably confirmed town now right?

I was actually curious if anyone has seen Nancy Drew bus before, wanted to take a look at that possibility (I think that was all the Nancy Drew head)

I've only played with Nancy once (it was a Pooky Nora Nancy hydra) and I was Paranoid that they were bussing scum come late game.
I was wrong though and they flipped town.

Outside of that, I have no experience that I at least remember.

I had a sneaking suspicion Noraa was bussing in my last game with her, and she turned out to be town. I have the same sneaking suspicion here, though I was more confident in Noraa town than I am in this hydra at present.

I dont think flea would have doctored me if fae had won it so I'll just assume it was a setup of some kind

I thought Flea bid on cop?

I didn't get this impression, but it seems like there are several references to Flea bidding on cop as I was catching up. Did fae crumb it or something and I didn't notice?

While I'm at it I'll vote VFP. I feel like as the default candidate in a slow game working on plurality like this it's easy for as little as 1 scum to make town!Kitty go through easily.

I also like misty better than smoke/Imaginality at this point, and still am harboring suspicion about VFP's heal votes for MO early game.

VOTE: VFP

This puts him to 2, not sure what happens in a tie in plurality

You surmised a reality that Kitty was town, how does their scumflip affect your reads?

125+300 is 425. I think cyrus is here as scum to buy something for 425

I'm failing to see the leap of logic where Cyrus bids 425, did you mention it in a previous post?

Thanks for the unlock boss.

I enhanced 1-shot BP and the three 2-shots that were rolled. I did not enhance the 1-shot AD, was going to enhance that for tomorrow's auction

Were there any roles you weren't going to entertain boosting at all?

1. My assessment of the situation yesterday was that scum was taking advantage of plurality and the eminent deadline to squeeze through a lynch on a lurking townie that would give no info to town. Because of that I was interested in eliminating just about anyone else, and when I saw Misty, who I was lightly townleaning, vote VFP, a player I was scumleaning so close to deadline, I saw opportunity. I tried to get Gamma onto VFP and luckily he did not swap as Kitty ended up being scum. My reads on the players on the wagon are similar to yours, mastina's, VFP's: I think most likely they are all town. There is potential one player on the wagon was bussing, but I am not convinced and if there is a busser there, it is not Distance. To be clear I am not trying to say you mastina and VFP all feel exactly the same as I do re: that wagon, just that I think my thoughts on it are similar to yours.

2. Cyrus admitted to bidding 125 on each of the 4 roles, and the midday auction provided evidence to corroborate that. I was suspicious as to why he was hanging around so close to deadline when he seemed to not be invested in changing the current MO or Elim wagons. The only reason left to be around at deadline, imo, was to bid at the deadline. However, Cyrus' money should have already been spent if he were town. This lead me to believe he could plausibly be scum waiting to spend his remaining 300 dogecoin on increasing one of his bids. 125+300 =425, so to outbid scum!cyrus I had to spend 426. I went back and forth trying to decide whether to buy roleblock or hitman and decided that if I could get hitman it would be best. It would force scum to deal with the doctor WIFOM or to outbid town on doctor which is a big cash sink for them. This is why I claimed for the doctor my exact bid so they would have the info necessary to decide if they wanted to doc me or protect me via wifom and either save a shot last night, or doc someone else. I also felt that by buying hitman it would increase the value of the doctor and the BP I Enhanced for my successor. Unfortunately BP is the one role I enhanced that did not make it, but it turned out to not matter because I am still alive.

3. off the top of my head, dayvig, hitman, godfather, ninja. Dont remember the other scum roles if there are any. I initially was going to send in 2-shot tracker instead of 2-shot gravedigger but again thought gravedigger would be very helpful for sorting out potential fakeclaims in the upcoming days.

If I had to take a blind guess of blind guesses, it'd be VFP + Cupcake Butterfly but I've got literally zero logic for this.

VOTE: VFP

HEAL: Smoke and Mirrors

I believe MO is permanent once it has been decided D1 or?

You must've had an instinct to place Marci and Cyrus as town, if not a VFP/Me team. How?

MO is permanent until I die but I can name my replacement in my PT at any point up until my death, so if people want to express support for my successor I will take it into consideration. No promises I'll change it though.

I find this shade on my slot very strange considering I actually caught scum and you tried to save them.

Consider my point of view. From where I'm standing it looks like someone bussed Kitty. Before the flip it looked like he was an easy mislim being pushed through close to deadline. Fmpov, anyone besides Kitty had a greater chance than kitty of being scum, because of how easily the wagon went through. I didnt disagree his iso looked scummy and his disappearing after claiming to have time was definitely a red flag, but life happens sometimes.

When I read your post I think "I find this shade on my slot very strange considering I bussed my partner so I deserve towncred, and you had a bad read on the gamestate so now I'll be using that towncred to shade you"

Could the team actually be Kitty/VFP/Kyuku?

Or is VFP a miselim?

Fascinating that Kyuku completely lost her sr on VFP today and shaded me for catching scum.

Once again you're leaping to the conclusion that because I didnt immediately hammer VFP that I no longer scumread them. I think at this point it's become apparent that VFP is a mislim. The sad part is if you're town and VFP is scum your actions toDay have made me less inclined to vote VFP.

You egregiously misunderstood me then. I thought it sus that you would shading me when you were wrong on Kitty and I was right. Prior to flip, you were tr Kitty and sr me, so I would expected town!you to have reacrssed, so why haven’t you?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

i think distance being confrontational out of the gate is >rand town

VOTE: VFP
HEAL: Mistyx

idk what the current vc is but this is where im leaning

i dont think VFP has really done anything towny and didnt like their handling of gamma post rep in

This is just most likely scum.
Misty doesn't mention Kitty at all, considering they were the leading wagon and makes a new vote for 2 reasons.

I havent done anything towny. Its not exactly wrong, but it's very vague when you consider that this means Misty was playing Kitty off as doing something as town, yet again, not mentioning Kitty.

And they didn't like my handling of Gamma post joining. This is again very vague and doesn't actually make sense considering I hadn't really handled anything other than a back and fourth about a game I wasn't in.

The main part though is having to say that they do not know where the VC is at. If they feel I'm scum here then I don't see a reason to announce this. To say that I I haven't done anything town means that they are either A) caught up and have a general idea that I didn't have votes or at least any in a threatening way, or B) only read my ISO instead of the game which would suggest not scum hunting but looking for reasons to give a scum read.
It seems like a way to distract that Kitty has 4 votes and that they want to start a wagon.


Following on, Kitty doesn't mention Misty and I think 281 is just all town.

Neither Misty or Kitty mention Mastina.
Mastina mentions Mist and places as town several times, but I feel like this has to be locked in given the fina post to date.

167 where Misty is added to the town pile for the following.
44 100 105 112 124 135 149
These posts are either fluff or filler. At best this isn't something that credits a top 4 town read.
Not to mention 161 is an indication of Mastina catching up and already pushing Misty for town posts with only 2 posts that are irrelevant to AI.

I think the only reason Kitty wasn't in this post is because at this point Kitty only had 1 post. 11

Second post is 483 not much to this but just another post to call Misty town with nothing to offer why.
517 even says here that there's no reason. It's a strong read to still be sticking with since mastina also claimed to not have received the cop before this.
Then 526 where mastina is basically getting ready to back peddle if needed. It's a strange thought to have when Misty is apparently that towny. As if trying to get in before anyone else can about the replace out.

Mastinas argument to why Flea was killed makes little sense in general and just comes across as a "I wouldn't kill here, please believe me". Its just too direct that particular players would make an unworthy kill (again, trying to imply the kill wasn't a good one for experienced players) or that Flea was a threat. It just contradicts itself. Either Flea is a threat and therefore worthy of killing or the kill was a bad choice.
We also see that mastina was absent majority of day 1 with only 3 posts. So it could easily just suggest that Misty makes the kill and mastina just wasn't there for the kill.
I find it even stranger that Mastina considers me a player who doesn't care about having input with the kill. Again it just seems to be a precise situation where Mastina is trying to throw mud and see if it sticks.

I'm just calling it now, scum are Kitty, SS/Misty, and Mastina.
Do what you will with it.

Good news is that I hopefully can read SS. I’ve played a lot of games with him and he is likewise pretty decent at correctly reading me as well.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Spoiler: mastina

(I am legit having a hard time getting into this game tho; it is undoubtedly the worst towngame I've had in a very very very long time. I genuinely wouldn't mind being voted out especially if there were an autowin or damn near close to one.)

By worst towngame, do you mean how you view the town's ability this game, or your ability to navigate it?

My ability to navigate it.

I'm literally deadweight, I'm literally worthless.

I don't have real thoughts, I don't have real reasons, I've barely posted at all so I can't be obvtown either, I don't see how I could look town and I don't see how I can really be helping town.

I can say that I think the wagon on scum D1 was all town--it was not a full 7 elimination but rather a plurality elimination. While it's possible scum forgot about plurality and didn't realize the elimination would go through, I find it more likely that the names on the wagon were all town. This would be good analysis if I were the first one to point it out (I immediately upon the scumflip thought "okay this entire wagon is town"), but by the time I got around to this thread no less than two other people had beaten me to the punch in making that exact conclusion.

I can say that I feel that MistyX is town, but I've legit got nothing to back that, other than just liking MistyX and smiling at their contributions and liking them and thinking the interactions came from town.

I can say that I am trusting the collective townreads on ssbm and buy the choice in items as being a fairly protown approach, but I am also not unique in this with everyone having already said as much pretty much.

I don't have any actual meaningful tangible contribution to give, so I feel worthless. I wasn't on the D1 scum elimination, I've barely posted, I've done just about zero anything. Heck even me calling Flea town was purely me trying hard to force a read off of feelings more than evidence so I don't even really deserve credit for getting that read right.

I AM trying tho, I'm just, not doing as well as I want to.

What would get you into reading the game more critically? We've actually limmed scum, nothing in Kitty's ISO tips you off in one direction or another?

Why back the VFP wagon now? Do you really think town hit scum twice EoD1?

I'm having trouble visualizing two thought patterns existing within you. You don't seem confident in your understanding of the game, but enough to assert votes and attach scumreads/associatives loosely. What is your goal?

@CB, you having Gamma in your PoE really worries me because you are not a noob, so how could you not know that Alisae is not only decent at playing scum, e’s one of the few people who actually love playing it?

If it weren’t for that Misty vote, I might be inclined to think Flea kill was a frame up.

I've seen Ali powerplay mech as scum, I've hydra'd with scum-them, but we may have rep'ed out? Don't recall entirely. I didn't want to write Ali off as town just because they understood the mech spectacularly, I wanted to read them via 1-on-1. The rep out stunted that approach.

As for Gamma? I liked that they challenged Mastina's take on my slot, I feel like scum-Gamma could've easily ran with it. I feel that scum-Gamma can be either more aggressive or more avoidant in thread. I haven't asserted a townread much yet because I wanted to view Gamma's progression post-wagon so I can better assess whether they had perfect knowledge of Kitty's alignment or didn't - without my input influencing them in any manner, since I'm confident they know my main too.

Btw iso'ing Flea, unless the scumteam is cyrus + someone who wouldn't tell cyrus not to pull such a n00bscum move, I'm thinking Flea was killed because the scumteam thought Flea was either a role or because the scumteam thought Flea was just that obvtown and were threatened by faer. (As far as I can tell, Flea gave suspicion to only cyrus and maybe imaginality. So the possibilities are; either cyrus is scum and killed Flea as the main threat to him and wasn't told to not do this by his scumbuddy, or Flea wasn't killed for faer reads, leaving the possibilities as "pr hunt" or "threat due to Flea being Flea".)

If it is cyrus + someone who wouldn't tell cyrus better, then the most likely option would be VFP (tho I suppose marcistar would be possible).

If it is someone who thought Flea was a threat in general and/or Flea was a PR, I'd say it's Cupcake Butterfly + VFP (tho I suppose marcistar's possible if marcistar has played with Flea before).

POE-wise that'd imply to me that VFP is scum regardless tho, so I guess back to here;
VOTE: VFP

Am open to other thoughts here tho.

ive never played with flea before im pretty sure

if i was scum vfp would be dead tho

i like the vfp vote
VOTE: vfp

But you're voting VFP now... I gather:
1. For you to be scum, VFP will most certainly die - I guess regardless of his alignment in which case.
2. To take you in good faith, you're town voting scum-VFP or believe so...

But why not entertain the reality of you/VFP TvT?

stuff

you passed the vibe check, any specific strat for tonight or is it based around the bids today - if you're even willing to answer this.

Good answer, I still feel extremely confident in town!Gamma.

I also think you’d prefer not want to out your alt as scum, so townpoints for that.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

everybody is making sense, HELP

Lol, this isn't the lament I'm used to getting from you. Why's it a problem?

Thinking my tr on Misty was probably right. Scum!SS tends to be somewhat frozen.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

everybody is making sense, HELP

Lol, this isn't the lament I'm used to getting from you. Why's it a problem?

dont worry, its D2 and we havent even gotten to the weekend, so i virtually have not even begun playing this game yet

im just piecing together what sounds good VS what reasoning is sound

mastina is doing something i tend to do as scum, but i dont want to push that for the moment
just when i start to feel comfortable with Kyouko, they may 1v1 with nancy
im actually paying attention to gamma now and i dont see an issue with them

imaginality was my first solid townread of the game due to how much they boosted me D1, theyve stuck to only a few players in their lips come D2 though
marci is ???
im vibe checking you SS, not expecting much from this though, because youve duped me at least twice before.

and VFP has well-reasoned thoughts thus far, not that i was a fan of them D1, but i definitely do not vibe with that L-1 push... i feel like scum could've easily hammered him and didnt though.

I’m currently thinking CB/SS possibly TvT?

More confident on CB rn. Scum!CB tends to be extremely lamisty and tryhard but you seem to be genuinely sorting.

[cyrus62]

Very few a e talking to day

[Smoke and Mirrors]

There is at least one scum in S&M and Distance, I think they just double bussed though. Triple ISO them with kitty. It seems to me the plan was to steal cop with the dead scum's wallet and save the rest of the money for later auctions when a town MO can no longer "guarantee" that no scum roles make it in. The fewer roles that remain, the less powerful the MO Enhancement becomes and the more likely a random role that benefits scum will slip in. By double bussing d1 they can ride out the game until a good scum power slips through

VOTE: S&M

If this is green I will reconsider Distance.

Good job, if you’re actually town here and town doesn’t want to lose, they should steer 100% clear of your shitty reads,

[Smoke and Mirrors]

There is at least one scum in S&M and Distance, I think they just double bussed though. Triple ISO them with kitty. It seems to me the plan was to steal cop with the dead scum's wallet and save the rest of the money for later auctions when a town MO can no longer "guarantee" that no scum roles make it in. The fewer roles that remain, the less powerful the MO Enhancement becomes and the more likely a random role that benefits scum will slip in. By double bussing d1 they can ride out the game until a good scum power slips through

VOTE: S&M

If this is green I will reconsider Distance.

Good job, if you’re actually town here and town doesn’t want to lose, they should steer 100% clear of your shitty reads,

@Imaginality, still think this is town? Kyuku’s top srs are on the extremely likely pure Kitty wagon. I was going to unvote you but this screams setting up miselims to me.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

So I'm E1 because scum do what they do every game and call me town.

No you're L-1 because this game is incredibly winnable via POE thanks to how D1 played out, and the N1 nightkill can be used to deduce even further the most likely scum to make the kill there in the remaining players, and you're the best fit for that.

VOTE: Mastina because she talked a lot about her vote but a lot of the logic seemed to contain some "in this scenario I think it's most likely VFP" statements where the reason for thinking it's most likely VFP wasn't really laid out.

What's there to lay out when it's player psychology analysis?

I am somewhat familiar with the way most of the players operate in this game when they are scum. What they are likely to do as scum, how they operate as scum, thoughts that are likely to occur to them as scum and thoughts that are unlikely to occur to them as scum.

If Flea was killed because cyrus is scum and cyrus's scumbuddy didn't tell them to not do this, the most likely player to fit that is VFP because VFP is the type of scum player that would analyze cyrus's choice and not see the downside, supporting it, more or less. He would look at it, and either be indifferent to it or more likely "sounds like a good idea" or something to that effect. Where he would see the upsides to the kill but not consider the downsides involved.

If Flea was not killed because cyrus is scum, the possibilities are Flea was killed to PR hunt or Flea was killed for general threat level.

If Flea was killed to PR hunt, the two players most likely to engage in PR hunting are Cupcake Butterfly and VFP. They are the players most likely to try and delve into PR speculation, of where the bids were, and try to kill based off of that. VFP has engaged in this type of behavior before so he tops the charts in this regard.

If Flea was killed for general townness factor between Flea being obvtown and being Flea...VFP is one of the players with the most familiarity with Flea, and the type of player to be most afraid of Flea, and the type of player most likely to approve of a kill on Flea for that reason.

But all of this relies on psychological profiling of the player in question. How do you explain a psychological profile? How do you give details of it? You can't exactly point to past scumgames for a one for one comparison because it's not a tell, there's enough variance in games that it's not going to be a one for one comparison. You can look at the general psychology and basic patterns, but that's about it, and it's those patterns that make me think VFP is the most likely to approve of a Flea kill here.

I can maybe explain the psychology behind the players who wouldn't make the Flea kill as to why they're unlikely to make it. But the unlikely-to-nightkill psychological profiles are pretty damn similar in how fact-lacking they are, so I genuinely don't know how to give more. You're asking me to create extra logic in a place where there's no extra logic to be had.

@Mastina do you tr kyuku? Having her top srs 2 slots that actually voted scum really weirds me out.

[Something_Smart]

Thinking my tr on Misty was probably right. Scum!SS tends to be somewhat frozen.

You're probably giving my scumgame too little credit, I think. That doesn't seem like a post I'd have trouble making as scum.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Thinking my tr on Misty was probably right. Scum!SS tends to be somewhat frozen.

You're probably giving my scumgame too little credit, I think. That doesn't seem like a post I'd have trouble making as scum.

Oh okay, you’ve improved then in that case. Misty was my #1 tr until she replaced out though but I’ll wait and see then.

But for now, you’re definitely not pinging me.

[Gamma Emerald]

Okay, I'm caught up.

do u have thoughts?

[Something_Smart]

Yeah that's fair.

I have a few reads, but they're pretty nebulous since my reads aren't generally good upon replacing in. Anything specific you want me to take a look at?

[Gamma Emerald]

So I'm E1 because scum do what they do every game and call me town.

No you're L-1 because this game is incredibly winnable via POE thanks to how D1 played out, and the N1 nightkill can be used to deduce even further the most likely scum to make the kill there in the remaining players, and you're the best fit for that.

VOTE: Mastina because she talked a lot about her vote but a lot of the logic seemed to contain some "in this scenario I think it's most likely VFP" statements where the reason for thinking it's most likely VFP wasn't really laid out.

What's there to lay out when it's player psychology analysis?

I am somewhat familiar with the way most of the players operate in this game when they are scum. What they are likely to do as scum, how they operate as scum, thoughts that are likely to occur to them as scum and thoughts that are unlikely to occur to them as scum.

If Flea was killed because cyrus is scum and cyrus's scumbuddy didn't tell them to not do this, the most likely player to fit that is VFP because VFP is the type of scum player that would analyze cyrus's choice and not see the downside, supporting it, more or less. He would look at it, and either be indifferent to it or more likely "sounds like a good idea" or something to that effect. Where he would see the upsides to the kill but not consider the downsides involved.

If Flea was not killed because cyrus is scum, the possibilities are Flea was killed to PR hunt or Flea was killed for general threat level.

If Flea was killed to PR hunt, the two players most likely to engage in PR hunting are Cupcake Butterfly and VFP. They are the players most likely to try and delve into PR speculation, of where the bids were, and try to kill based off of that. VFP has engaged in this type of behavior before so he tops the charts in this regard.

If Flea was killed for general townness factor between Flea being obvtown and being Flea...VFP is one of the players with the most familiarity with Flea, and the type of player to be most afraid of Flea, and the type of player most likely to approve of a kill on Flea for that reason.

But all of this relies on psychological profiling of the player in question. How do you explain a psychological profile? How do you give details of it? You can't exactly point to past scumgames for a one for one comparison because it's not a tell, there's enough variance in games that it's not going to be a one for one comparison. You can look at the general psychology and basic patterns, but that's about it, and it's those patterns that make me think VFP is the most likely to approve of a Flea kill here.

I can maybe explain the psychology behind the players who wouldn't make the Flea kill as to why they're unlikely to make it. But the unlikely-to-nightkill psychological profiles are pretty damn similar in how fact-lacking they are, so I genuinely don't know how to give more. You're asking me to create extra logic in a place where there's no extra logic to be had.

honestly this argument to "why VFP" is halfway engaging

[Gamma Emerald]

Scum tend to not want to hammer scum when scum died D1.

there are no hammers until d5