Mini Theme 2217 | Owner's market blitz | Over

[Smoke and Mirrors]

5 hours after what is apparently scum trying to gauge where the town is bidding (whether Cyrus is scum or not, tbh he is the only player in the lobby I would say the 125 split is NAI for with confidence). They see nobody is bidding high yet. 5 hours later, in comes Imaginality to lead town toward spending 400 on all roles. Imagine scum dont bid on anything toDay. Town spends 1600,

loses 500, or 100 and a purchased role

, then in the likely situation that they avoid hitting the doctor target and get a kill, that's another 500 down.

The bolded part assumes we mis-exile. We could exile scum...
Even if we grant your assumption, we're 500 (or X and a purchased role) down x2 if scum successfully nightkill regardless of what bidding strategy we implement. It makes no sense not to bid hard - and without a PT the only way we can reliably cover all the PRs (enough to force scum to bid high for them) without scum knowing who to target for their NK is if we each choose randomly.

Where was this strategy before midday? We were already very deep into mechanical discussion when he made his previous post, so why not bring it up before midDay?

Hadn't thought of it by then. At first I was wondering if there was a way we could assign people by name to each PR but that gives scum too much information for their NK tonight and subsequent nights.

While his suggestion is appealing at first, even to me, from a numbers standpoint, I think what they are doing is baiting town into spending a lot of their money so that in later days scum can outbid.

We get our money back if we're outbid.
I think these roles are worth bidding for.
It's less advantageous to us to get roles on later days - less chance to use them, more chance to be NKed before using them.

The next bit gets tinfoil, but I would not be surprised to find out flea is the scum's preferred MO candidate and see that Imaginality eventually concedes and switches his vote there as I'm currently leading. Whether his means flea is scum or one of the scum has a friendly relationship with Flea that may lead Flea to elect that scum as a replacement, I do not know.

Right now if I vote someone other than me as MO I'd lean more towards Cupcake Butterfly.


@Misty re the scumslip: I felt the comment where ssbm assumed the 125 voter was town was suspicious - in that if he is scum (and they aren't the 125 voter(s)), he would know the 125 voter is town. So I feel that apparent assumption could be indicative of hidden knowledge.

look i did it and now scum is going let me win all 4 and kill me at night.

Cyrus, who

actually

made those bids doesn't make a difference to my point that

ssbm stating with certainty that town did it

(before you started hinting it was you) is suspicious.

Are you sure the bolded is your actual interpretation of my post (snipped below)?

It's also worth pointing out that based on the midday flip it appears that a single townie already bid their 500 dogebux by evenly spreading them amongst the 4 roles so our probability here is likely 8% rather than 6%, and that's only if all town follow the strat.

I admit I didn't remember the 'it appears' but I still think your decision to say 'townie' rather than 'player' is questionable. As is your downplaying of hitman in other posts.

I actually don’t know if this was a slip or not but it’s interesting that Imaginality is sussing on Distance and had a not great reaction to my response to Kyuku.

If Kitty/Kyuku/Imaginality is the team, I’d better get a scummie nom.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

i should be obvtown after that flip

i feel like there would be more resistance to kyo mo though

What did you mean by 286?

scum want to get one of their own as mo

Very good point and that’s why I think CB is likely town, especially if Kyuku is scum. And no way is there a town that bad who seriously looks at Flea post and doesn’t immediately consider frame up. Too bad for Kyuku I jumped off VFP. It made his attempt to shitpush me so much harder.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VFP is pretty obviously miselimbait and Kyouku’s white knighting him.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: Smoke and Mirrors

I intend to switch to any VFP alternative if this doesn't get traction

I guess you don’t intend on answering my question. How did you re-ISO me and are still voting us?

VOTE: Kyuku

This is seriously dumb.

I didnt reread your whole iso. I told you I was rereading toward the end of it.

Hey @Kyuku, why tf wouldn’t I have noticed that post when it was specifically addressed to ME? How is Kyyuku not scum here? How?

It seems like an unusual thing to remember to me unless you're on the lookout for it.

And that is why Kyuku is scum here. Scum killed Flea to push me and who is pushing me? Kyuku. Slam dunk.

I had the same thought about you. That scum killed flea to set me up because I was saying flea was the scum MO candidate on D1. Eliminating me today is throwing away the advantage we've gotten from rolling cop d1 and having elected a town MO. If I'm wrong about my successor they will easily be able to slip a scum role in. I am happy to to be eliminated on a later day if a scum role ever appears, even if it is by chance. I dont want a town!successor of mine to get unlucky and hit a scum role and be policied for it.

VOTE: Smoke and Mirrors

Smoke and Mirrors is a hydra containing Pooky.
Pooky has never bussed on D1 as scum, ever.

Smoke and Mirrors is thus the locktown of the locktown for how D1 went down.

Pooky was not around on d1 due to net issues. It was all Nancy.

VOTE: Smoke and Mirrors

Smoke and Mirrors is a hydra containing Pooky.
Pooky has never bussed on D1 as scum, ever.

Smoke and Mirrors is thus the locktown of the locktown for how D1 went down.

Kyuku doesn’t care about any reasons pointing away from his agenda. When he referenced that Flea post against me, the wheels turned and it clicked. I really do think Kyuku’s scum here and scum killed Flea to frame us.

You can look at my original push and see that I found it odd that you were saying flea bid on cop. I asked you about it and you didn't answer me. I had changed my mind on you, thought we had a tvt fight last night, when I remembered the other thing that pinged me. I did not pull this out of the air. I had the time to reread flea and found the indication that fae was bidding on cop and I saw your name there in that post and it all came crashing down around me again. You cannot seriously be reading my posts and thinking this is a shitpush. You are ignoring the reasoning I present you with, just as you did last night.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Now I'm going to go through your iso and respond to anything I've missed. I expect you to do the same for me if you have any faith left.

[imaginality]

I get a strong impression S&M is only going hard out against ssbm and me from feeling threatened by ssbm's suspicion of them and my questioning a couple of their points. It feels quite omgussy.

Regardless as I mentioned earlier I think it's too early to be voting for them. I don't regard the Kitty wagon as locktown but there are better options for the elim today.

@mod can we have a vote count?

1. Mastina didn't cover "scum are trying to coin hunt" in the breakdown of possibilities for why Flea was killed. @Mastina does #705 change your analysis?

coin hunting in this game IS PR hunting--either someone has 500 g or they have a role, those are the only possibilities for town.

I agree it's binary in that sense.
You didn't consider the possibility Flea was eliminated for

not

having a power role though, and who'd be likely to do that. You only raised it from the angle that scum might have targeted Flea because they thought Flea had a power role.

[mastina]

Hot take: Smoke and Mirrors vs ssbm is tvt.

1. Mastina didn't cover "scum are trying to coin hunt" in the breakdown of possibilities for why Flea was killed. @Mastina does #705 change your analysis?

coin hunting in this game IS PR hunting--either someone has 500 g or they have a role, those are the only possibilities for town.

I agree it's binary in that sense.
You didn't consider the possibility Flea was eliminated for

not

having a power role though, and who'd be likely to do that. You only raised it from the angle that scum might have targeted Flea because they thought Flea had a power role.

Honestly, too tired to give it a proper think but first instinct is that it's still the same people. If I wasn't busy with other things + utterly exhausted, I'd be able to do the proper mental math there to verify, so apologies I can't do that at the moment.

[Gypyx]

votecount 2.4

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (1) - Cupcake Butterfly
Smoke and Mirrors (1) - ssbm_Kyouko
Cupcake Butterfly (0)
ssbm_Kyouko (2) - Smoke and Mirrors - Gamma Emerald
Something_Smart (2) - VFP - Imaginality
cyrus62 (0)
imaginality (0)
marcistar (0)
Distance (0)
VFP (2) - Mastina - Distance
No exe (1) - Cyrus62

not voting (2) - Everyone else

day 2 ends in (expired on 2021-06-26 10:38:57)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Aution Detective - the top bet at the mid point is 5

2-shot Auction Detective - the top bet at the mid point is 365

2-shot Gravedigger - the top bet at the mid point is 25

2-shot Watcher - the top bet at the mid point is 100

[/quote]

[Gypyx]

@mod, since SS just replaced in, any chance we get an extension here?

well, i'm pretty adamant on keeping the normal deadlines, but i most likely won't be here at deadline, so you most likely will get one by accident

[cyrus62]

VOTE: vfp why do you want everyone off him?z?.z?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

This post took a very long time to write on my phone. Please take the time to read it :/

Starting at 565, rereading S&M's ISO as they have accused me of acting in bad faith/ignoring their question:

In 610 you indicate I egregiously misunderstood you - what was it that I was misunderstanding? Could you clear that up for me?

639: this is the second time you've indicated I will eventually sr Imaginality and Gamma and ftr I'd already 180ed on Imaginality toward EoD1, and I believe neither of their votes on Kitty were a bus, and they dont have the same partner associations you and distance have with Kitty. I don't like their vote on me right now but they're generally bad at reading me from what I remember. Gamma will remember in 2213 how I, as a widely TRed townie, believed so strongly that he was town that I faked a guilty on another player who turned out to be town. I was right about Gamma then and I feel just as certain about VFP here. He is not dying toDay. I don't wk as scum.

If Gamma doesnt move off of me and I end up eliminated today, I urge you all to review 2213 and seriously consider Gamma's reasoning for voting me.

642 this is the first non-rhetorical question I've seen you post that I didn't already respond to, and even it borderlines on rhetorical. I do think there is a world where I am wrong about both you and Distance. I do not think we are in it, but I would bet the game on VFP being town here.

I am passing the MO to VFP as of right now.

643 here is where you provided a dissatisfactory answer to my question. I was asking specifically what you thought about the reasoning I provided at the time that I voted VFP at end of day 1? As a reminder/tldr, my reasoning was that Kitty seemed like the "default" plurality lim that was being slipped through by scum and that if scum wanted to lim Kitty, it made sense to me to lim anyone besides him. I saw Misty, who I was townreading at the time, voted VFP, a player I had an early scumread on, who I thought Gamma, another TR of mine, might be willing to vote. I then voted VFP and appealed to Gamma for assistance in eliminating VFP.

does any of my reasoning sound scummy to you? If so, please be specific. I believe you intentionally misinterpreted the intent of my question and avoided providing a complete answer. This was the original reason you cited for pushing me today and it is very important that you explain your reasoning, because as it stands your push appears to have been in bad faith.

652 here you ask if it is possible I was misunderstanding you. I interpreted from 565 where you originally shade me that you wanted town me to vote VFP, because In that post, you quote my vote count of the players on the VFP wagon as evidence. I think you were frustrated that I had lost interest in voting VFP after seeing the Kitty flip. This is unusual because VFP was counter to scum, so why would i want to vote him after that? And dont say I'm not voting him today for towncred, as i obviously dont need it, as is evidenced by the MO vote on D1.

I'll post the full quote for this one as there are embedded quotes that matter here and it's easier this way.

Having issues reading into people here. VFP and Flea are town though and it would take a lot to convince me they are scum. Marci is decent too.

Smoke and Distance are two of my SRs at this point in the game.

VOTE: kitty

Good vote and I really don’t understand the sr on you either. I don’t have a strong read on you yet but it looks like you’ve been genuinely sorting.

I still do think this. Have you critically examined his ISO? I’m referring to his other reads and don’t understand why town!you are myopically only focused on Kitty?

I explained why I tr him and it had absolutely nothing to do with Kitty. Re-read my ISO because you seem to be ignoring any of my posts that don’t seem to fit your narrative.

I have critically examined Distance's ISO. I believe there are associations there that point to a team with you and Kitty. I do not believe there was evidence of genuine sorting as of post 347 which is where you cited that you TR him for genuine sorting. His other reads were by and large, shallow or unexplained townreads that are easily faked as scum. There is nothing that indicates to me that he was scumhunting as of 347.

I have now reread your iso from 565 to this post I quoted and I dont believe I ignored any of your posts that "dont fit my narrative." If such posts exist, please quote them for everyone to see, so you can actually provide evidence to support at least one bit of shade you're casting on me.

664 sorry if I'm making you feel personally attacked - whether you're scum or not - I don't see another reason for you to bring this up, but please try to look out for bolded text if you can. If I weren't phone posting almost all the time I would color code or something to try to make my posts more clear for you.

714 if it has to be someone off the wagon, I'm not really sure. Obviously I'm tunneled.right now but I would have to reread d2 and see. Gut instinct, if the Kitty wagon was pure, Cyrus, CB, Marci, or S_S, most likely CB or Cyrus. I'm still suspicious about him being around at deadline on d1. I think he was looking to buy hitman for 425. Its possible scum!cyrus thought Roleblocker but I doubt it. If it just has to be someone off of the wagon then maybe mastina gets thrown in too because I'm having a hard time.reading her D1 and was somewhat relying on other players like yourself to let me know if I should be worried about her right now (on D1). Was saving her to sort for later but as i see her as a possible alternative partner to scum!you, or potentially using town!you as a beard, I'd probably want to look at her the closest. Problem is I dont have time to do any of that with the deadline incoming. Its 2 am here...

716 which head posted this? If it was nancy not pooky, why didn't you quote this before when I asked about Flea crumbing/claiming cop bid?

717 which question are you referring to? I think it's in bad faith to not let me know which question in this post. I did you that courtesy several times because I really care about getting a complete answer to a very specific question. You're not helping me to TR you if you are town, and I really am and have been trying.

719 while this may come from frustrated town, for that very reason it is also an excusable way for scum to dismiss my push: "I’m not sure I even care about parsing you if you’re going to be this bad."

However, you bringing up this quote is making lean to you’re not being town, why? Because if you use your brain, it’s pretty damned obvious that scum is trying to set us up and if you’re scum with Kitty, you referencing that quote makes perfect sense.

First of all, it is not obvious to me, so could you explain? Second, saying "if you're scum with kitty" kind of feels like something you only say if you know kitty has different partners, since kitty is already flipped. Maybe that's just tunnel vision though. The verbiage is weird to me.

722 if it is so blatantly obviously a shitpush, then why are you not providing any evidence to refute my points? Why are you instead resorting to discrediting me if, by your own admission, it is obvious what is wrong with my push? This is not how town behaves.

724 I have made every effort to be transparent in my push on you and you have resorted to discrediting me the entire time. It is laughable that you would accuse me of acting in bad faith when all of the evidence points to the contrary.

727
I get that you would notice it because it was directed at you. What was unusual was that you happened to remember it. It seems like such a minor detail to be concerned about as town, but it makes sense for scum to keep track of it.

The rest of the posts I'll respond to individually.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: Smoke and Mirrors

Smoke and Mirrors is a hydra containing Pooky.
Pooky has never bussed on D1 as scum, ever.

Smoke and Mirrors is thus the locktown of the locktown for how D1 went down.

I think I addressed this somewhere already but just sk you know in case you're town and using that to TR the hydra, pooky was not present for the Kitty wagon.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Have I actually caught 2 scum? That would be amazing. But it’s so freaking obvious that scum was trying to set us up that either Kyuku is the worst scumhunter in mafia history or he actually is scum. Rn, I’m leaning to yes.

You know what, this got me thinking and I have 0 of the good vibes I got from kyouko in mini 2213 rn
VOTE: ssbm_kyouko
I feel like a bastard for this but it’s making enough sense and S&M has earned my trust

Sorry you're not feeling the same here but I'm doing for VFP what I did for you, and maybe from the outside it looks different, as opposed to when you're the town I'm hard-defending. I dont wk as scum generally though.

Anyways, VFP is town. I'm town. Don't make the same mistake twice.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Have I actually caught 2 scum? That would be amazing. But it’s so freaking obvious that scum was trying to set us up that either Kyuku is the worst scumhunter in mafia history or he actually is scum. Rn, I’m leaning to yes.

You know what, this got me thinking and I have 0 of the good vibes I got from kyouko in mini 2213 rn
VOTE: ssbm_kyouko
I feel like a bastard for this but it’s making enough sense and S&M has earned my trust

I was leaning town on them until he brought up that Flea post. That screamed blatant scum frame up to me and I think Distance is very obviously town.

And the way Kyuku said if we flip green, he’s going to push Distance to push his bussing theory, That was the first thing that pinged me. Kyuku is very obviously trying to chain miselims on us and Distance.

This is the second time S&M has misrepresented this post, and I already called them out on it the first time:

There is at least one scum in S&M and Distance, I think they just double bussed though. Triple ISO them with kitty. It seems to me the plan was to steal cop with the dead scum's wallet and save the rest of the money for later auctions when a town MO can no longer "guarantee" that no scum roles make it in. The fewer roles that remain, the less powerful the MO Enhancement becomes and the more likely a random role that benefits scum will slip in. By double bussing d1 they can ride out the game until a good scum power slips through

VOTE: S&M

If this is green I will reconsider Distance

.

[cyrus62]

You talk a lot don't you. I normally try to see who's off in games . Your talking a lot more now @ssbm

[cyrus62]

You talk a lot don't you. I normally try to see who's off in games . Your talking a lot more now @ssbm

[cyrus62]

VOTE: s&m

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: vfp why do you want everyone off him?z?.z?

He's town is why. He was the alternative to Kitty. I have to get sleep and deadline is close so I don't like this as much as S&M but I wont be awake at deadline. Mostly sheeping my top TRs here but I also think the misty slot was very absent and S_S did little to reassure me on replace in.

While I am mostly sheeping here I am happy with this lim and am not trying to prematurely shift blame in case of a green flip, and you can quote me on that.

I also lowkey think when misty posted about this setup being solveable.by poe and "at least that's going to be my excuse" was a bit of a "disheartened to have rolled scum" post

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh forgot to VOTE: something_smart

[cyrus62]

Pop pop someone out of 4dies in 6 hours wonder who it is pop pop sorry I told you guys if it's a tie it's random between those 4

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Mistyx who are you scumreading rn?

no one yet

i feel like this setup can be won by PoE anyway

at least that’s gonna be my excuse

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Pop pop someone out of 4dies in 6 hours wonder who it is pop pop sorry I told you guys if it's a tie it's random between those 4

S_S dies with the current cc because you unvoted VFP. in the case of a tie, the player that has been at the tied vc the longest dies. By unvoting it means VFP or another wagon will need 4 votes to go through over S_S

[ssbm_Kyouko]

3:12 am. My legacy is around if I die... uhh VFP if I die, please enhance the following roles

[ssbm_Kyouko]

1 shot Bulletproof and 1 shot doctor, and both 1 and 2 shot trackers

[cyrus62]

Pop pop someone out of 4dies in 6 hours wonder who it is pop pop sorry I told you guys if it's a tie it's random between those 4

S_S dies with the current cc because you unvoted VFP. in the case of a tie, the player that has been at the tied vc the longest dies. By unvoting it means VFP or another wagon will need 4 votes to go through over S_S

Doesn't this seem thought out.