MT 2219: The Battle of Calculasia - Endgame

[Almost50]

Currently: Bad reaction to my initial push on him.

My initial push was based on my theory of there being 1 Scum in the 1st 3 posters in any given Mafia game (backed up by examples in post 153), but I neither explained nor did I actually FoS anyone in particular at the beginning. I just said nom was less likely to be it. MC used my mistake (of counting the Co-mod in my 3 first posters list) and voted me for it. I thought that made him more likely scum than the other two and voted him and only then did I explain my theory. MC then doubled down claiming my theory was an easy way to fake reads, although that wasn't why he voted e at first.

If anything AT ALL I believe I did move the game out of RVS with that post (which was one of my main objectives of posting it). I guess now is the time I should note that I am a Neighbor and that my Neighbor knows this because I had asked them to ask me why those 3 if they were online, but nom did it first anyway. I told my Neighbor specifically that them engaging me on this one should move the game out of RVS, so -at least- I did that regardless of whether my read on MC is correct.

[Jake The Wolfie]

Breakdown:
3 No Scum in 1st 3 posters
7 1 Scum in 1st 3 posters
3 2 Scums in 1st 3 posters

Average: Exactly 1 Scum in 1st 3 posters

How can we trust that this data is not cherry picked?

[Almost50]

And -unless I'm too sleepy to realize a "major mistake" I'm making- the only mistake I did was in the SD of MC's "3 randoms" proposition. It should me more like 0.666 rather than 0.692m but that changes absolutely nothing overall.

[Almost50]

Breakdown:
3 No Scum in 1st 3 posters
7 1 Scum in 1st 3 posters
3 2 Scums in 1st 3 posters

Average: Exactly 1 Scum in 1st 3 posters

How can we trust that this data is not cherry picked?

https://forum.mafiascum.net/search.php? ... &sr=topics

Check for yourself

[Almost50]

OR.. do it with YOUR OWN games. I believe I did request everybody to check their most recent 5 games.

[Jake The Wolfie]

You could've checked through any of us to find that pattern. Or (more likely) You could've looked through your games to find a pattern where there is an abnormal amoumt of randscum in one particular area. How can I trust that the data isn't p-hacked?

[Almost50]

Jake; I presume you know I'm short tempered to such bad arguments. If you didn't know, you know now. You have 3 options:

1- Check for yourself that these are ALL my games in 2021. All FINISHED ones that is.
2- Check your own most recent games. last 5. Last 7. last 10. Whatever.
3- Brush it off and ignore it.

Repeating the same question after it has been answered isn't interesting, my friend.

[Jake The Wolfie]

I.. don't have many finished games. Not recent ones, anyway.

[Almost50]

Pick another player. Go for Nero's.. Titus'.. RadiantCowbells' .. Not_Mafia even... just pock someone who has played many games and check their most recent games

[Jake The Wolfie]

Sidenote -
Isn't Titus and RCB the same person?

[Almost50]

Nope. I've played with them both in the same game before.

[Jake The Wolfie]

Sirius' doppelgänger lied to me.

[theslimer3]

I'm getting town vibes at least from Almost, so at the very least I'd be fine wit sleeping him until I form a more concrete read of the players here.

VOTE: MURDERCAT

I'd be happy to answer any questions about anything if you guys want my opinion on something, or have a

concrete

theory about something
I've never been too good at meta diving but I can at least attest that I've seen some dead on scum pings from other players about it. Not that I'm trusting just any I'd find here without looking into it if they'd be presented

Thus far I'm best at scoping whether or not someone could he scum through their interactions with me, so forgive me if I selfishly but into anything I'm not wanted in <.<

[theslimer3]

Backup Moderator: Umlaut

lol?

Almost is on the scum pings list

Oh, Shucks!

Replace Umlaut with Wheme then ("First three posters of any given game contain 1 scum 80% of the time" rule)

Also, MC voting me for this implies she is the Scum of the 3.

VOTE: MURDERCAT

Edit: Vote changed to be read by VCer. Don't forget that case matters.
~Ircher

You know what I must've been falling asleep when I sheeped that, first 3 has 80% scum makes no sense
Even though technically I was already voting MC but still. We might as well be pulling straws if that's your logic.

[WhemeStar]

VOTE: Flea the Magician

I thikn I found scum

[Almost50]

Another one argues against a proven fact! *Sigh*

Say you're not sold on MC, and I'll buy it. Say the rule isn't foolproof and I will accept your argument. But to say it makes no sense when I've provided proof AND asked that you check your own games is in fact the argument that doesn't make any sense to me. It's like saying "Goon is the most common role for Mafia makes no sense".

If you want to argue against the rule; do a research on your own games and come back to me with something like "Well, here are my last 7 games and scum posted in the 1st 3 in only 2 of them"

[Toogeloo]

MC is -1? We wanna wait?

[Almost50]

I don't know. He said this 2 hours ago and took a deep dive into the ocean.

It is now!

I will do the math in a bit, but it's mostly academic and not really game relevant

Anyone intending to hammer should state intent and ask for a claim I guess?

[T3]

Murder panicking at A50 analysis.

Catching up.
Mcs response to A50 gut pinged me the same way and I think Titus gets townpoints for this. VOTE: MURDERCATpedit: Hammer?

Edit: Vote edited for Vcer. Try to capitalize the U as well.
~Ircher

[Almost50]

I believe it is. he was E-3 in the last VC, then Toog, slimer and you

[Jake The Wolfie]

MN 2124 - 0 scum in 1st 3 posts (1 scum in 1st 3 posters)
MN 2122 - 1 scum in 1st 3 posts (1 scum in 1st 3 posters)
MN 2121 - 0 scum in 1st 3 posts (1 scum in 1st 3 posters)
MN 2119 - 2 scum in 1st 3 posts (1 scum in 1st 3 posters)
MN 2118 - 1 scum in 1st 3 posts (1 scum in 1st 3 posters)
MN 2117 - 2 scum in 1st 3 posts (1 scum in 1st 3 posters)
MN 2115 - 1 (1)
NM 2114 - 0 (0)
MN 2113 - 1 (1)

[T3]

Fuck

I accidentally lolhammered a scumreadin my first game.. now this

[Jake The Wolfie]

If I had more time, I would've analyzed more games.

[Jake The Wolfie]

I guess I better retead the thread then.

all 8ish pages of it

[Almost50]

@Jake: No, that's totally fine. 6 out of 9, and 8 scums netted. Now do you think this supports the rule or not?

@T3: I don't see how you "accidentally" hammered when you had a P-edit suggesting you did see that MC was @E-1