MT 2219: The Battle of Calculasia - Endgame

[Toogeloo]

Yeet.

[T3]

My reaction was like: Hammer? [SUBMIT]
2 seconds later
WAIT THAT WAS HAMMER

[Toogeloo]

Do you have a game where you did townie things and got town read for them, T3?

[Jake The Wolfie]

@Jake: No, that's totally fine. 6 out of 9, and 8 scums netted. Now do you think this supports the rule or not?

I think we need to investigate why this rule holds

[Almost50]

Simply because it hasn't been used that often, so it remains the case. Once it gains momentun Scum are going to try to be "late to the party" I guess

[Ircher]

Day 1 VC #6

Flea The Magician (1): WhemeStar (189)
Xlos (2): DrippingGoofball (74), Titus (100)
Almost50 (1): MURDERCAT (126)
Jake The Wolfie (1): Jake The Wolfie (14)
Galron (1): Xlos (31)
T3 (1): Galron (81)
Titus (0):
WhemeStar (0):

MURDERCAT (6) (F-1): Flea The Magician (33), theslimer3 (187), Almost50 (128), nomnomnom (144), Toogeloo (173), T3 (193)

nomnomnom (0):

Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to fade a player.

Deadlines

This phase will end no later than Saturday, July 10, 2021 9:45 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-10 21:45:00).
This phase will end no earlier than Monday, June 28, 2021 9:45:00 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-06-28 21:45:00).

Moderator Notes

1: If you have regular weekend V/LA, please inform me each week.
2: Please let me know if you have a different pronoun preference than listed below.

3: Thesp's vote counter is really picky. While I said I'd allow abbreviations, it would be very helpful if you try to conform to the spelling of the player's username as much as possible. Case matters as well.

If anyone knows how to do nicknames with Thesp's counter, please let me know. (I much prefer MathBlade's tool in terms of accuracy, but it isn't hosted online like Thesp's.)

Pronoun Key

1: DrippingGoofball : It
2: Flea The Magician : Fae/faer
3: Xlos : He/him
4: Almost50 : He/him
5: Jake the Wolfie : Any
6: Galron : He/him
7: theslimer3 : They/them
8: T3 : He/him
9: Titus : She/her
10: WhemeStar : He/him
11: MURDERCAT : He/him
12: Toogeloo : They/them
13: nomnomnom : He/him

[T3]

lmao

[T3]

Do you have a game where you did townie things and got town read for them, T3?

Mini Normal 2205? I think.

[MURDERCAT]

I am only doing this for theme reasons, feel free to ignore

Spoiler: statistics

You have a hypothesis that “[The f]irst three posters of any given game contain 1 scum 80% of the time.” We will compare this to the expected amount given 3 random players instead.

Because we are sampling 3 players from the list without replacement, we need to use the hypergeometric distribution. The hypergeometric distribution tells us the number of successes k (here defined as the observed number of nontown players) given two parameters: N (the population size) and K (the total number of nontown players). Using this distribution, we can determine the expected number of nontown players in a random selection of 3 players and compare to what you have observed with the first 3 players to post.

The problem with this approach is that we can only use games with 3 scum and 13 total players. Alternatively, we could use the binomial distribution (which assumes sampling with replacement) but given the small populations we are dealing with I don’t expect that to be particularly accurate. Besides, this situation is the most comparable to our game.

Let’s calculate the expected number of scum in a random group of 3 players. We can do this is R with the following command

Code: Select all

dhyper(1, 3, 10, 3)

to get a value of 0.4720 but there is a simple intuition behind this. There are 3 ways to get a single scum player in a group of 3 players, we can either pick a scum player with only our first draw, second draw, or third draw. Intuitively, you might sense that these are equally likely scenarios, but we will prove that in a second. First, let’s calculate the odds of getting scum on only the first draw. In our setup, that’s 3/13 * 10/12 * 9/11 which is equal to ~0.1573. The odds of getting scum on only the second draw are 10/13 * 3/12 * 9/11 which is also equal to ~0.1573. If you look closely, you’ll see that it’s the same numbers in both expressions. So, our odds of having exactly 1 scum in a random group of 3 is equal to 3 * ~0.1573 which equals 0.4719 (this is equal to the above, there is just a rounding error).

We now have the expected odds of having scum in the first 3 posts

if and only if

the first 3 players are randomly selected. You claim that it’s not random however and the odds of there being a single scum in that group is higher. Let’s look at the data now to see if that holds. The games you provided all have a differing number of players and scum, so I’m pulling 13p games myself.

Here are the games that I found (for convenience I only looked at opens) and the number of scum who were in the first 3 posters:

• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=84282 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=83417 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=83235 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=83553 (0)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=82564 (0)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=82037 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=81655 (2)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=81049 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=78009 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=78448 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=77755 (0)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=77349 (0)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75972 (0)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75812 (2)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=76359 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75428 (0)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75460 (0)
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=74622 (0)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=74559 (0)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=73781 (2)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=73388 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=73693 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=72485 (2)

This leaves us with:
0: 9 (39%)
1: 10 (43%)
2: 4 (17%)

So compare our 43% versus our expected value of 47%. Pretty close! That took a really long time so I’m not going to bother to do the hypothesis test right now, but I might do that later. Also there might be mistakes related to failing to find replacements or things, so feel free to check my work.

[T3]

Wait no definitely not that one.

I can give you my first game when I made 5 posts, went AWOL, and was killed night 1.

[Almost50]

@MC: Do you want to claim, perhaps?

[T3]

UNVOTE: MURDERCAT

[MURDERCAT]

Wow I spend 2 hours trying to teach you all stats and you try to kill me I see how it is

[MURDERCAT]

There is no way this wagon on me is real, these votes are awful and trying to run me up to a claim is terrible

[T3]

I agree with the reads on him but it's way too early. slimer voting twice is uh.....

[T3]

Honestly I really don't like MCS rection and I have no idea why.

[Almost50]

I think T3 should put his vote back on MC. I don't believe this "rigid face" reaction from him. I think it's more likely to come from Scum who knew they weren't hammered.

[Jake The Wolfie]

A50, do you think MC would freak out if they were town who knew they weren't hammered?

[Titus]

MC was hammered. I just pmed the mod. They forgot my vote.

[Titus]

Nevermind lol.

[T3]

MC was hammered. I just pmed the mod. They forgot my vote.

[bruh gif insert]
pedit:...

[MURDERCAT]

[quote="In post 216, Almost50"][/quote]

There was a VC by the time I even checked in?

[MURDERCAT]

I think T3 should put his vote back on MC. I don't believe this "rigid face" reaction from him. I think it's more likely to come from Scum who knew they weren't hammered.

This is what I meant to quote

[Almost50]

A50, do you think MC would freak out if they were town who knew they weren't hammered?

NO, but he'd be pissed enough to throw out some fumes, not just a one-line comment and disappear.

[Almost50]

You still need to claim, MC. There's no reason for this wagon to dissolve if you're acting like it isn't there to begin with.