With respect to DKKoba and you, Nancy:
You are not reviewers especially for Normal Games.
nsg and I both are and very very experienced in that regards.
When we say that this game was tremendously scumsided, barring freak occurrences--we mean it.
There was exactly one scenario where the town gets any positive outcome from their roles, the weak hider targeting the scum rolestopper.
Do you know what the mathematical odds of that are?
N1, it is 1/11. (13 alive D1, minus the D1 elimination, 12 into night, hider can't self-target so 11 targets.) 9.090909090909091% chance.
ASSUME the weak hider lives (not a guarantee).
N2, it is 1/8. (11 alive D2, 10 after the elimination, hider makes it 9, but they have an innocent, and presumably won't hide behind their innocent.) 12.5% chance + 9.090909090909091% chance = 21.59090909090909% chance.
ASSUME the weak hider lives again (not a guarantee).
N3, it is 1/5. (9 alive D3, 8 after the elimination, hider brings it down to 7 but they have two innos and presumably won't hide behind them.) 20% chance + 21.59090909090909% chance = 41.59090909090909% chance.
Oh and by the way, on N3 if there's no scum dead, that hider hiding behind the scum rolestopper? Can trigger an automatic scum win. So even IF they hide behind the right scum, they can end up actually literally costing the town the game. If the town was expecting only 1-2 town to die in the night, they could actually literally lose the game from it being 3. So even that 41.59090909090909% chance? Not necessarily a good thing for the town!
That's just from the sheer statistical probability. Just from the raw numbers, the outcome you describe is, statistically speaking, unlikely to happen.
Then you throw in that scum get to choose who the scum rolestopper is...after they have seen a portion of D1 play out. This means that the scumteam can see which of their members are most suspicious and which are least suspicious and from reading the game thread, select the player least likely to be investigated to hold that role. Unless they completely read the gamestate wrong and were totally off the mark, that makes the odds much much lower than the numbers would suggest. It literally could only occur in freak occurrences, by my estimation, the 7-11%. Something that is statistically theoretically possible from sheer raw bad luck on the scumteam's part and good luck on the town's part, but which 9 times out of 10, won't happen.
The IC commuter isn't nearly as broken as you say, because the scumteam can reasonably deduce that the commuter is the IC. That means instead of wasting their nightkill there, they wait until the commuter-enabler is dead to kill the IC. That, aside from the fact that the IC is only one conftown with no way of generating more.
Then you throw in that the scum's trump card, the rolestopper, even in those freak 7-11% occurrences? Still doesn't spell game over for the scumteam. Inherent in the weak hider getting a guilty is the weak hider being dead after having gotten it, unable to generate more results. And while one guilty would be a guilty on scum, every innocent the weak hider got before the guilty? Thrown out the window once the scum rolestopper flips. So you end up with exactly one conftown, the IC, not 2-3 conftown. Because the weak hider couldn't generate actually solid 100% beyond all reasonable doubt, innocents. It had two possible guilties, and arguably both still give benefit to the scumteam by eliminating the investigative and hindering the town's roles. (Commuter-enabler guiltied? After elimination, disables the IC's commute. Rolestopper guiltied? After elimination, casts doubt on all prior innocent results.)
There's no realm where this isn't a scumsided setup. It literally takes freak occurrences, statistical abnormalities, for the town to have a CHANCE. The scum vig dead before N3, in spite of how they cannot be guiltied and the scum choose who carries that role; the scum rolestopper dead on D1 in spite of how the scum choose who carries that role; the hider guiltying the scum rolestopper N1 exactly; the scum not realizing the IC is a commute and not suspecting a protective and risking a kill there with the scum commuter enabler alive; etc.
If those happen? Town has a
chance
.
In all other scenarios, the town is basically in a, statistically speaking, almost mathematically impossible to win barring freak miracle scenario.
