Mini Theme 2217 | Owner's market blitz | Over

[Gypyx]

votecount 2.5

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (1) - Imaginality
Smoke and Mirrors (1) Cyrus62
Cupcake Butterfly (0)
ssbm_Kyouko (0)
Something_Smart (1) - VFP
cyrus62 (5) - Smoke And Mirrors - Something_Smart - Cupcake Butterfly - Gamma Emerald - ssbm_Kyouko
imaginality (0)
marcistar (0)
Distance (0)
VFP (2) - Mastina - Distance

not voting (0)

day 2 ends in (expired on 2021-06-26 10:38:57)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Aution Detective - the top bet at the mid point is 5

2-shot Auction Detective - the top bet at the mid point is 365

2-shot Gravedigger - the top bet at the mid point is 25

2-shot Watcher - the top bet at the mid point is 100

sorry for the delay !

[Gypyx]

Cyrus62 has been executed ! he was...

Spoiler:

A Vanilla Townie !

Night 2 starts now and ends in (expired on 2021-06-28 16:02:36)

[Gypyx]

the top bid on each item was :

1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
2-shot Gravedigger 225
2-shot Watcher 500

[Gypyx]

Night 2 has ended...

Distance has died ! they were a

Vanilla Townie

Day 3 starts now

[Gypyx]

votecount 3.0

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (0)
Smoke and Mirrors (0)
Cupcake Butterfly (0)
ssbm_Kyouko (0)
Something_Smart (0)
imaginality (0)
marcistar (0)
VFP (0)

not voting (11) - Everyone

day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-07-02 02:48:08)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Godfather

1-shot Tracker

2-shot Ninja

1-shot Jailkeeper

[VFP]

VOTE: Something Smart

Gypyx you have SS down as Misty.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Night 2 has ended...

Distance has died ! they were a

Vanilla Townie

Day 3 starts now

Told you.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Marci is probably clear from this since Distance locktowned her.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Might as well VOTE: Distance

But like I said, I'm around and willing to switch.

VOTE: Something Smart

Gypyx you have SS down as Misty.

How does that make sense to you?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

votecount 2.5

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (1) - Imaginality
Smoke and Mirrors (2) - ssbm_Kyouko - Cyrus62
Cupcake Butterfly (0)
ssbm_Kyouko (0)
Something_Smart (1) - VFP
cyrus62 (5) - Smoke And Mirrors - Something_Smart - Cupcake Butterfly - Gamma Emerald - ssbm_Kyouko
imaginality (0)
marcistar (0)
Distance (0)
VFP (2) - Mastina - Distance

not voting (0)

day 2 ends in (expired on 2021-06-26 10:38:57)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Aution Detective - the top bet at the mid point is 5

2-shot Auction Detective - the top bet at the mid point is 365

2-shot Gravedigger - the top bet at the mid point is 25

2-shot Watcher - the top bet at the mid point is 100

sorry for the delay !

@mod unless Kyouku is literally a double voter, he can’t have been voting both us and Cyrus.

[Gypyx]

indeed, i'm correcting that, it was done kinda hastily

[Smoke and Mirrors]

S & M

Gamma, CB, SS, Mastina

Marci

———————————

Kyouku/Imaginality/VFP

We’re town. Next is my confident town core. Why would Marci ever kill Distance here?

So that leaves those three.

Of those 3, I probably feel the best about Kyouku for switching his vote, so it’s a toss up between VFP and Imaginality.

I think VFP probably has the most reason to kill Distance but it’s still a super weird kill. If Mastina dies tomorrow, SS was probably wrong.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

votecount 2.5

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (1) - Imaginality
Smoke and Mirrors (1) Cyrus62
Cupcake Butterfly (0)
ssbm_Kyouko (0)
Something_Smart (1) - VFP
cyrus62 (5) - Smoke And Mirrors - Something_Smart - Cupcake Butterfly - Gamma Emerald - ssbm_Kyouko
imaginality (0)
marcistar (0)
Distance (0)
VFP (2) - Mastina - Distance

not voting (0)

day 2 ends in (expired on 2021-06-26 10:38:57)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Aution Detective - the top bet at the mid point is 5

2-shot Auction Detective - the top bet at the mid point is 365

2-shot Gravedigger - the top bet at the mid point is 25

2-shot Watcher - the top bet at the mid point is 100

sorry for the delay !

If Mastina/us/Gamma die, VFP probably scum.

Why? Because of Distance NK.

I think rn, it’s VFP/Imaginality based off of PoE.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

On SS:

SS town read VFP today, when VFP was already at 4 votes. But SS hasn't done anything to try to deter that wagon or start an alternative. I can see that town read as coming from scum who would know VFP will flip town but not want to prevent the mis-elim.

If SS turns out to be scum I think it extremely likely VFP is town.

Agree that we need to hear more from SS about scum reads. This close to deadline (unless deadline gets extended) everyone should have a vote on

someone

, so we can do decent analysis in later days.

Town spent between 0 and 1586 yesterday depending how much cop went for and which winning bids were town or scum. Scum spent between 0 and 1886.
In terms of how much remaining, with 9 town remaining we have between 2614 and 4500 remaining. Scum have between 374 and 1600 remaining.

Probably better to bid 500 today because then anyone outbidding you is provably scum, so there's a chance of an auction detective getting a guilty (if we win one of the auction detective powers). Compared with if you bid 380, they can bid 381-500 and still claim to be town.

Reposting in a tidied up easier to quote form:
---
I had this neatly formatted and typed out but lost my post, ffs...

There is at least one scum in S&M and Distance, I think they just double bussed though. Triple ISO them with kitty. It seems to me the plan was to steal cop with the dead scum's wallet and save the rest of the money for later auctions when a town MO can no longer "guarantee" that no scum roles make it in. The fewer roles that remain, the less powerful the MO Enhancement becomes and the more likely a random role that benefits scum will slip in. By double bussing d1 they can ride out the game until a good scum power slips through

VOTE: S&M

If this is green I will reconsider Distance.

Good job, if you’re actually town here and town doesn’t want to lose, they should steer 100% clear of your shitty reads,

@Imaginality, still think this is town? Kyuku’s top srs are on the extremely likely pure Kitty wagon. I was going to unvote you but this screams setting up miselims to me.

The rationale for the scum double bus theory makes no sense to me. It seems likely scum would get Kitty to high-bid cop when they knew Kitty was about to be elimmed. But deliberately double-bussing Kitty, eh, I doubt it. Losing that 800 is going to hurt scum more than just a normal elim. Of course, the fact it seems particularly bad for scum would also boost the towncred reward if they pull it off. But it doesn't seem like the Kitty wagon was really pushed hard so it was a heck of a laid back double bus if it was one. Like I say I don't see it.

That said, I also don't think we should simply assume anyone in particular on the Kitty wagon is definitely town. A few people have done so so far: Gamma, Distance, you (S&M), and mastina:

I think S&M hydra is probably confirmed town now right?

i should be obvtown after that flip

I think Kitty wagon was all town and Mastina was obviously right on Flea, so this game should probably not be too hard to solve.

(plus the 'extremely likely pure wagon' comment above)

KittyTacky (4) - Distance, Smoke and Mirrors, Imaginality, Gamma Emerald

So I am treating y'all as conftown.

I think if there is scum on Kitty wagon it's least likely Gamma as I think scum bussing earlier in the wagon is more likely than late. I would reconsider that if VFP is scum (as that would mean there wasn't any chance of shifting the elimination away from scum).

But with scum really unable to afford another elim today and how strongly the VFP wagon built I think VFP is more likely town and that at least one scum is on the wagon.

Current VFP voters are:

VFP (5) - Mastina - Distance - marcistar - Cyrus62 - ssbm_Kyouko

Of those voters:

With ssbm I feel like I have a good sense of what I find suspicious and what I find townie, and I'm happy to watch and wait.

I'm happy to keep my vote on mastina for kicking off the VFP wagon (which given there had been votes on VFP end of D1, was quite likely to build up), and if mastina flips scum I think it's worth looking at the Kitty wagon again.

cyrus seems all over the place. I don't think that's an act. I feel like unless scum aren't bothering to talk, cyrus as scum would have slightly more of a clue about certain things?

I need to reread marci but retyping all this means it's 2am now, so sleep first, iso after. Pedit: would marci have unvoted if there was a competing wagon? If VFP gets elimmed and flips town that unvote will look convenient in retrospect.

I think if someone did bus Kitty it's more likely Distance than S&M. Their 'i should be obvtown' quote raises my eyebrow (too concerned with how others see them?) and the vote on VFP is unexplained but that could be a play style thing.

I will say I find the meta discussion hard to get into because I don't know anyone from other games and have no time to read dozens of games. The point someone made about Alisae being excited to play when scum made me feel slightly better about Gamma.


Also, why were all the midday bids so low. Come on people, bid high and make scum either give us powers or use their cash. If everyone bids high then it also helps auction detectives (if their target didn't bid today it means they either won a power d1 or are scum saving their cash). Scum can't outbid us for both auction detectives and watcher if we bid high on all three.

We AD you last night and all you bid on AD was 90. Yet here you are urging town to blow their collective wad, why?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

The VFP wagon today:

1. post 483, mastina votes VFP for no reason: "If I had to take a blind guess of blind guesses, it'd be VFP + Cupcake Butterfly but I've got literally zero logic for this."
2. post 522 mastina invents some logic which conveniently turns out to justify staying on VFP
3.post 524, Smoke and Mirrors agrees with mastina and adds VFP's pseudo-vote on Misty as another reason
4.post 532, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes to look at CB
5.post 537, Distance votes VFP, no reason given
6.post 542, Smoke and Mirrors votes VFP again for the pseudo-vote on Misty
7.post 545, marcistar votes VFP and says if she were scum VFP would be dead
8.post 546, cyrus62 votes VFP wondering what the flip would mean
9.post 565, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes VFP because ssbm swung from pushing VFP D1 to not D2
10.post 671, marcistar unvotes because of being busy
11.post 679, cyrus62 quotes Cupcake's pro VFP post and says "no one should vote till we do reads better"

1 looks bad to me because it's not D1, there were votes on VFP D1 so claiming to vote VFP for no reason is lazy. Maybe too obviously bad? Add in that 2 seems like biased logic at best, and you can I hope see why I didn't like this from mastina. I have recognised that out of game stuff makes it difficult to push more on mastina today though so I'm parking this til D3, we have time
3,4,6,9 in the context of S&M's other posts seem like reasonably legit scum hunting
5,7,8 are all unimpressive votes from Distance, marci and cyrus, and cyrus's unvote 11 seems like sheeping marci's unvote 10

Distance parking on VFP and going awol is also a bad look.

Overall I don't think anyone on the VFP wagon has covered themselves in glory.

Like even if VFP flipped scum this is not awesome scum hunting.

Dafuq?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VFP/Imaginality scumteam.

Kyouku is probably just wrong town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Weekend stuff.

UNVOTE: Gamma

Kitty may be scum for multiple reasons. I'll think when I'm on.

I'm also happy to put everyone on the Kitty wagon as town.
Scum looked dis organised or just absent to not move over to me or even try else where.

This reinforces the idea that at least 1 scum is a deepwolf, but i think another resides on VFP wagon. This assumes that the ganeatate points to VFP town which I think is plausible. I feel like if scum could've quockhammered a townie, they wouldn't because thwy would knowingly get turbo limmed with deadlines this short and votes coming down to "3? You're dead."

I've seen several people mention quick hammering (or quockhammering ) but I don't think scum

can

quick hammer under this rule set can they (except when it's already very close to deadline)? Like, if VFP got that extra vote when VFP was E-1 early this game day, we'd still carry on to end of market day and people could leave that wagon, and in theory it could even end up with someone else being eliminated.

Then I'm very interested to hear on what you think VFP's alignment is, and how the wagon might have influenced that read, alongside how it helps you read his wagoners.

I think VFP is highly likely town.
Partly that's a read based on posting (activity a bit inconsistent but seems to be actively trying to solve things/raise questions, also I don't think scum unvote at the end of D1 rather than bus Kitty or try to get a different wagon in place).

Partly it's because of the D2 wagon - I feel like scum who reflected on how D1 went down would want to get a wagon on town going early on D2 because I really don't think they want to risk a second scum elim. So when the wagon grew quickly on VFP it led me to feel more confident in my town read.

Also I feel like VFP reacted reasonably to the wagon, still analysing others and asking a few decent questions rather than just self-defense or omgussy posting.

Will comment on the wagoners in my next post.

Both of you are pushing SS who I have a stong tr on and yesterday, you tried to get me to vote Mastina who was the only other vote on VFP despite Distance.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

The VFP wagon today:

1. post 483, mastina votes VFP for no reason: "If I had to take a blind guess of blind guesses, it'd be VFP + Cupcake Butterfly but I've got literally zero logic for this."
2. post 522 mastina invents some logic which conveniently turns out to justify staying on VFP
3.post 524, Smoke and Mirrors agrees with mastina and adds VFP's pseudo-vote on Misty as another reason
4.post 532, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes to look at CB
5.post 537, Distance votes VFP, no reason given
6.post 542, Smoke and Mirrors votes VFP again for the pseudo-vote on Misty
7.post 545, marcistar votes VFP and says if she were scum VFP would be dead
8.post 546, cyrus62 votes VFP wondering what the flip would mean
9.post 565, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes VFP because ssbm swung from pushing VFP D1 to not D2
10.post 671, marcistar unvotes because of being busy
11.post 679, cyrus62 quotes Cupcake's pro VFP post and says "no one should vote till we do reads better"

1 looks bad to me because it's not D1, there were votes on VFP D1 so claiming to vote VFP for no reason is lazy. Maybe too obviously bad? Add in that 2 seems like biased logic at best, and you can I hope see why I didn't like this from mastina. I have recognised that out of game stuff makes it difficult to push more on mastina today though so I'm parking this til D3, we have time
3,4,6,9 in the context of S&M's other posts seem like reasonably legit scum hunting
5,7,8 are all unimpressive votes from Distance, marci and cyrus, and cyrus's unvote 11 seems like sheeping marci's unvote 10

Distance parking on VFP and going awol is also a bad look.

Overall I don't think anyone on the VFP wagon has covered themselves in glory. Like even if VFP flipped scum this is not awesome scum hunting.

If Imaginality is scum, he just townspewed the entire town minus 1 - with perhaps the sole exceptions of flipped town, CB and Kyouku.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

If Kyouku is town but rn, I lean yes unless I’m wrong on either Imaginality or VFP.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

The VFP wagon today:

1. post 483, mastina votes VFP for no reason: "If I had to take a blind guess of blind guesses, it'd be VFP + Cupcake Butterfly but I've got literally zero logic for this."
2. post 522 mastina invents some logic which conveniently turns out to justify staying on VFP
3.post 524, Smoke and Mirrors agrees with mastina and adds VFP's pseudo-vote on Misty as another reason
4.post 532, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes to look at CB
5.post 537, Distance votes VFP, no reason given
6.post 542, Smoke and Mirrors votes VFP again for the pseudo-vote on Misty
7.post 545, marcistar votes VFP and says if she were scum VFP would be dead
8.post 546, cyrus62 votes VFP wondering what the flip would mean
9.post 565, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes VFP because ssbm swung from pushing VFP D1 to not D2
10.post 671, marcistar unvotes because of being busy
11.post 679, cyrus62 quotes Cupcake's pro VFP post and says "no one should vote till we do reads better"

1 looks bad to me because it's not D1, there were votes on VFP D1 so claiming to vote VFP for no reason is lazy. Maybe too obviously bad? Add in that 2 seems like biased logic at best, and you can I hope see why I didn't like this from mastina. I have recognised that out of game stuff makes it difficult to push more on mastina today though so I'm parking this til D3, we have time
3,4,6,9 in the context of S&M's other posts seem like reasonably legit scum hunting
5,7,8 are all unimpressive votes from Distance, marci and cyrus, and cyrus's unvote 11 seems like sheeping marci's unvote 10

Distance parking on VFP and going awol is also a bad look.

Overall I don't think anyone on the VFP wagon has covered themselves in glory.

Like even if VFP flipped scum this is not awesome scum hunting.

Dafuq?

Did Imaginality perspective slip with the bolded?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VOTE: Imaginality

Could still switch to VFP. I don’t see voting anywhere else today.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VOTE: Imaginality

Could still switch to VFP. I don’t see voting anywhere else today.

In the unlikely chance I’m wrong about Kyouku, Imaginality is the slot that ties both of them together. Because either Kitty wagon was pure or Imaginality bussed.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Acutally, I'm going to follow up and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko for post #179. Between that possible scum slip, and the downplaying of hitman... on which note, also if ssbm_Kyouko expects MO to draw the NK (per post #31) why didn't he suggest MO bid for scum powers like hitman instead of no-bid? I feel like he's scum hoping to pick up hitman for cheap.


And HEAL: imaginality

Btw "downplaying hitman" is echoing VFP in a not-so-transparent attempt to turn him on me as I voted him earlier

And the Imaginality/VFP associatives just keep coming.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Acutally, I'm going to follow up and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko for post #179. Between that possible scum slip, and the downplaying of hitman... on which note, also if ssbm_Kyouko expects MO to draw the NK (per post #31) why didn't he suggest MO bid for scum powers like hitman instead of no-bid? I feel like he's scum hoping to pick up hitman for cheap.


And HEAL: imaginality

This is awful. This is absolutely awful given your own posting. You're showing awareness of the game mechanics while trying to lead town down a bad road.

What is the bad road you refer to?

Imaginality did have reason to kill Flea. I think it’s Imaginality/VFP. I think Imaginality/Kyouku don’t look aligned.

I confidently tr everyone in my towncore.

[imaginality]

13 posts in a row?

I'm not going to be able to keep up on quantity with you today, that's just nuts.

Here's some brief responses:

The comment you bolded and 'dafuq'ed was simply me observing that there wasn't much solid reasoning in the VFP wagon votes so as I saw it, if VFP flipped town the wagoners would be right more by chance than by brilliant deduction.

Your theory that Flea's comment gives me reason to kill Flea is hypocritical when you argued Flea's comment to Nancy wasn't a reason for you to kill Flea.