Mini Theme 2217 | Owner's market blitz | Over

[imaginality]

Oops, clicked submit too soon.

Re. my posts and my bid, I encouraged town to bid high because I want us to keep scum from getting powers that are useful to us and I think getting powers early is better than late. The reason I bid 90 should be obvious.

I find the fact scum didn't hide any of the bids yesterday interesting. Makes me wonder if they bid 500 on watcher early in an attempt to appear town when they claim it later. On the flip side if town got watcher it would be one reason for the relatively unexpected Distance NK - avoid being watched.

[imaginality]

Smoke And Mirrors - Something_Smart - Cupcake Butterfly - Gamma Emerald - ssbm_Kyouko

No way the cyrus wagon is all town.
VOTE: Something_Smart

Will reread the others tomorrow (evening here) but happy to continue my vote on SS for now.

[imaginality]

The only town read Distance pushed hard was marci. And Distance's final post was a willingness to elim anyone not on the Kitty wagon. So I think if there's an additional reason for the Distance kill it will be that someone who read Distance as town wants extra credit for that read.

[imaginality]

Rather than being much about Distance's own reads

[VFP]

No way the cyrus wagon is all town.

The cyrus wagon was a joke.

[mastina]

Distance has died ! they were a [/color]

Vanilla Townie

For the record I made a pretty damn high bid (but not 500) on Watcher because I was intending to watch Distance.

Unfortunately that 500 is like 99% likely to have been a scum bid because no competent townie would've bet their entire savings on Watcher and then NOT have watched Distance so the 1% is someone being idiotic enough to spend all of their money on that role and yet be blind enough to not realize that literally nobody else was going to be the N2 nightkill. (Because, yes. To be clear. If you didn't realize Distance was the kill last night the way I did and you bid that much on Watcher--you're an idiot. It's literally inexcusable to pick up that role and then blunder that badly by not watching the obvious nightkill because Distance WAS that obviously the nightkill. But most likely, 500 = scum bid.)

For that matter?

Either the 2x doctor is dead, scum, or incompetent--same reason as the above. Someone spent 250 on that role and it was 2x so they had a protection available last night. Not protecting Distance is inexcusable as a doctor, so very likely either they're dead or scum. (To reiterate again, literally nobody was more likely to be nightkilled than Distance, and you can use sheer basic fundamental logic to track why. On the D1 scum wagon, imaginality had suspicion on him for his terrible D2 pushes so he wasn't going to die; Smoke and Mirrors had terrible suspicion on them D2 so they weren't going to die; Gamma Emerald I recall having reason to think Gamma wouldn't die; VFP as the scumfuck he is certainly wasn't going to die; Something_Smart with the suspicion his slot had wasn't going to die; Cupcake Butterfly definitely wasn't going to die; ssbm was heavily suspected by Smoke and Mirrors so wasn't going to die; imaginality's shitpush on me meant I wasn't going to die. Of these, the only one I can't remember strongly is Gamma Emerald but between Gamma Emerald and Distance the choice for the N2 nightkill was very very very obviously Distance here so neither the doctor nor the watcher targeting Distance means they're either dead, scum, or incompetent; those are the only three options available and given the size of the bids, dead or scum are the most likely.)

But I digress.

VOTE: VFP

Back to doing this, which is what we

should

have done yesterday.

[mastina]

I don’t have the kinds of interactions with a buddy that I had with Kitty. I don’t understand how anyone in the playerlist reading those interactions could possibly think they’re SvS.

I mean, yes, that too--it's not just the Pooky half the townread comes from. You're very obviously town by play here, too, Nancy, but in my opinion a 100% guaranteed to be accurate to the point of being a borderline trust tell (it's technically not one but is very close to being one with how damn strong a tell it is) for Pooky's meta is better, harder evidence of your slot being town than you being town.

But yes, it's both heads being town for separate reasons, rather than just one.

If she were lost or had little input, why are so many slots conftown to her?

Again, the two are not mutually exclusive as you have said them to be.

Why would she focus on a scumread that is already universally suspected (VFP) without really being in contact with VFP to deduce an alignment directly?

I'll be blunt.

I didn't read the end of D1.

I didn't even look at the end of D1 wagon aside from seeing the four votes on scum--I legit didn't know there were votes on VFP at all until well after D2 had started and people asked me about VFP vs the scum.

I had zero awareness of VFP suspicion.

I also didn't give a damn.

Because I have my own, individually generated, separate, reasons for believing VFP is scum, generated from basic premises and the logical conclusions to be reached from them.

The D1 wagon on scum went through with only four votes. That makes the players on the wagon much much much less likely to be scum. There's ways for the players on the wagon to be scum--intent to distance not realizing plurality blitz deadlines mean the distancing was lethal (first two votes), or deliberately deciding to bus for the towncred (last two votes). But more likely is just that the votes were town.

Mistyx is both a player whose contributions looked town to me, and whose replacement has also looked town to me, and whose slot has overall been highly town, with the players townreading the slot also being ones I by and large trust, with them townreading the slot for reasons either similar to mine or different but positively augmenting mine. Even were I to doubt my own read there, trusting their reads makes me trust them to be town.

ssbm is similarly a player whose contributions look town to me, their mechanical choice N1 was incredibly pro-town, and who others have thought to be town for fairly good, compelling reasons.

While I know that objectively I fit the profile for scum fairly well (I would consider Flea a threat and could make that kill N1; I did not realize this game had plurality and didn't remember it was a blitz game; I wasn't on the D1 scum wagon), I obviously know that I am town and that in spite of the objective reasons it could be me, know that it isn't me.

Which limits the pool down to, per cyrus's death, three names: {VFP, Cupcake Butterfly, marcistar}.

In those three names, VFP seems by far the most likely to be scum just by gamestate and by the N1 kill on Flea.

Given marcistar doesn't look like scum and that you do, that leads to the conclusion of VFP + Cupcake Butterfly.

[VFP]

when people town read the above.

[mastina]

Hot take: Smoke and Mirrors vs ssbm is tvt.

Doesn't seem like an especially hot take to me, but why?

Well Smoke and Mirrors is clearly town here because this is transparently Nancy's towngame through and through. It's painfully obviously Nancy's town meta, with every marker which that entails, beyond her ability to fake it as scum. Even were she having the scum performance of her life, I meant it when I said that the fact that the slot was voting scum on D1 and contains Pooky means that the slot is 100% guaranteed locktown. It IS literally a nearly 20-year-old tell for Pooky that is borderline trust tell. Pooky's relative absence from the game be damned, he's not letting a tell that old randomly be broken. He's not flaked from the hydra altogether, per Nancy and also per common sense. (If Pooky

were

100% completely and entirely out of the game I would expect Nancy to replace in solo or replace her hydra with a different hydra to get a different partner.)

ssbm is also someone there's a lot of reasons for me to think is town, but beyond those, ssbm vs Smoke+Mirrors just has literally every single classical marker of a TvT fight. It screams, bleeds, TvT to its very core at every stage.

He's town is why. He was the alternative to Kitty.

Why can't the two top wagons be S/S?

My thoughts exactly. There's nothing in how the game has played out which says that VFP was a scumdriven counterwagon to the towndriven wagon on scum. And for that matter, nothing but paranoia about VFP's L-1 wagon on D2 having scum there, when multiple members of the VFP wagon on D2 are town with a high degree of certainty. cyrus? Flipped town. Distance? Flipped town. Smoke and Mirrors? 100% conftown to me. me? Also conftown to me. marcistar? Highly highly likely to be town. The L-1 wagon on VFP was in fact in high probablity? All town.

The only possible scum there is marcistar who Distance, the nightkill, hard-vouched as being town, a read I am inclined to sheep.

I realize that others don't have the advantage of conftowning me so that objectively I could be scum on the VFP wagon--but from my point of view the wagon is as close to confirmed all-town as it can be without being confirmed as all town.

[mastina]

1. post 483, mastina votes VFP for no reason: "If I had to take a blind guess of blind guesses, it'd be VFP + Cupcake Butterfly but I've got literally zero logic for this."

I did indeed have zero logic aside from the poe pool. (If you've got it down to 4 names, you've a 50% chance at voting scum at worst. So why wouldn't I vote?) I just looked at the four names left after doing the POE and made my best gut guess as to which two names had the highest chance to be scum together. There wasn't any logic to be had in the gut guess, it just was what felt like the best fit between the four names.

2. post 522 mastina invents some logic which conveniently turns out to justify staying on VFP

I invented nothing; after my initial lack of facts, I investigated Flea's iso and then I analyzed the available facts, which happened to back my initial gut guess. When looking at the players most likely to kill Flea, VFP topped the charts.

there were votes on VFP D1 so claiming to vote VFP for no reason is lazy.

I was not aware of the VFP votes on D1 and frankly don't give a damn--scum are scum regardless of what happened to them on D1 and when I've good reason to believe scum that was suspected on D1 is scum, I am going to keep my vote there. Scum are still scum no matter how widely suspected they are.

Like even if VFP flipped scum this is not awesome scum hunting.

So? Scum dead is scum dead. Do you think your D1 vote on scum was awesome scumhunting? It wasn't. It was basically a lucky break. But it still resulted in scum dead. It doesn't need to be awesome scumhunting if it gets the job done.

And I genuinely believe that VFP is the slot with the highest chance of flipping scum here, sooooo.

[Gamma Emerald]

Did Imaginality perspective slip with the bolded?

I rate it a non-zero possibility

[ssbm_Kyouko]

13 posts in a row?

I'm not going to be able to keep up on quantity with you today, that's just nuts.

Here's some brief responses:

The comment you bolded and 'dafuq'ed was simply me observing that there wasn't much solid reasoning in the VFP wagon votes so as I saw it, if VFP flipped town the wagoners would be right more by chance than by brilliant deduction.

Your theory that Flea's comment gives me reason to kill Flea is hypocritical when you argued Flea's comment to Nancy wasn't a reason for you to kill Flea.

Ahem. First of all, caught for the wrong reasons (assuming you meant "if VFP flipped

scum

...")

As for the next point, I dont think this is hypocritical. The comments from flea aren't similar enough to constitute hypocrisy here.

Even if they were, this is a hydra slot and nancy argued the first point, and it seems you think you're addressing pooky here, so I dont think it's a fair assessment regardless of the content of the comments by flea

Distance has died ! they were a [/color]

Vanilla Townie

For the record I made a pretty damn high bid (but not 500) on Watcher because I was intending to watch Distance.

Unfortunately that 500 is like 99% likely to have been a scum bid because no competent townie would've bet their entire savings on Watcher and then NOT have watched Distance so the 1% is someone being idiotic enough to spend all of their money on that role and yet be blind enough to not realize that literally nobody else was going to be the N2 nightkill. (Because, yes. To be clear. If you didn't realize Distance was the kill last night the way I did and you bid that much on Watcher--you're an idiot. It's literally inexcusable to pick up that role and then blunder that badly by not watching the obvious nightkill because Distance WAS that obviously the nightkill. But most likely, 500 = scum bid.)

For that matter?

Either the 2x doctor is dead, scum, or incompetent--same reason as the above. Someone spent 250 on that role and it was 2x so they had a protection available last night. Not protecting Distance is inexcusable as a doctor, so very likely either they're dead or scum. (To reiterate again, literally nobody was more likely to be nightkilled than Distance, and you can use sheer basic fundamental logic to track why. On the D1 scum wagon, imaginality had suspicion on him for his terrible D2 pushes so he wasn't going to die; Smoke and Mirrors had terrible suspicion on them D2 so they weren't going to die; Gamma Emerald I recall having reason to think Gamma wouldn't die; VFP as the scumfuck he is certainly wasn't going to die; Something_Smart with the suspicion his slot had wasn't going to die; Cupcake Butterfly definitely wasn't going to die; ssbm was heavily suspected by Smoke and Mirrors so wasn't going to die; imaginality's shitpush on me meant I wasn't going to die. Of these, the only one I can't remember strongly is Gamma Emerald but between Gamma Emerald and Distance the choice for the N2 nightkill was very very very obviously Distance here so neither the doctor nor the watcher targeting Distance means they're either dead, scum, or incompetent; those are the only three options available and given the size of the bids, dead or scum are the most likely.)

But I digress.

VOTE: VFP

Back to doing this, which is what we

should

have done yesterday.

I think I've changed my mind on you. I'll give your vfp case a reread.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

It's reasonable to think the vfp e-1 wagon could have been all town, but all town wagons happen on town sometimes. I think we possibly had one end of day yesterday which would further explain the Distance kill - to leave as many wagoners of town alive as possible for a mislim.

It also makes sense to kill off the wagon if scum are kn the wagon, as it gives them more players to hide amongst. I felt like CB's comment about a town block forming was pretty gross but I was mostly looking to compromise and work with S&M on that wagon and CB was the player I had the most hesitation about, followed by S_S, who I was giving the benefit of the doubt because S&M.

I'm also really pinged by 957. I've played with town VFP recently and I feel like sniping like that is not who he is.

VOTE: VFP

Killing flea has the added benefit of appeasing my scumread on VFP which was still active at the end of d1. I was scumreads him because of the way he flipped off Alisae and onto Flea with seemingly no reason as though the agenda was to destabilize Alisae's play for MO. By showing me Flea was town it did make me cast that aside. If scum had killed either me or misty(S_S) on N1, it would have looked bad for VFP. Plus they might have thought doc would heal me and are playing around the 2-shot by waiting for N3

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think we need to play keepaway with the ninja role btw - assuming town got watcher we still have 1 each watcher and tracker shots available, and I will enhance the 2-shot tracker again toMorrow. Outside of daykill it is their strongest PR remaining.

So hold bids until midDay I think

[VFP]

I'm also really pinged by 957. I've played with town VFP recently and I feel like sniping like that is not who he is.

Ew

[Gamma Emerald]

Killing flea has the added benefit of appeasing my scumread on VFP which was still active at the end of d1. I was scumreads him because of the way he flipped off Alisae and onto Flea with seemingly no reason as though the agenda was to destabilize Alisae's play for MO. By showing me Flea was town it did make me cast that aside. If scum had killed either me or misty(S_S) on N1, it would have looked bad for VFP. Plus they might have thought doc would heal me and are playing around the 2-shot by waiting for N3

Do you think scum would make a kill so blatantly not in their best interests?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Killing flea has the added benefit of appeasing my scumread on VFP which was still active at the end of d1. I was scumreads him because of the way he flipped off Alisae and onto Flea with seemingly no reason as though the agenda was to destabilize Alisae's play for MO. By showing me Flea was town it did make me cast that aside. If scum had killed either me or misty(S_S) on N1, it would have looked bad for VFP. Plus they might have thought doc would heal me and are playing around the 2-shot by waiting for N3

Do you think scum would make a kill so blatantly not in their best interests?

No, but VFP is scum, so it is in his best interest when he was the alternative to Kitty

[VFP]

SSBM, why did you have to go and use false meta on me? :<
The second thing that scum attenp to do to me every game.
I would have been happy with my solve but now I'm adding you to the pool and have to think.

[VFP]

You should know better than I don't just sit down to false meta

[Gamma Emerald]

Oops, clicked submit too soon.

Re. my posts and my bid, I encouraged town to bid high because I want us to keep scum from getting powers that are useful to us and I think getting powers early is better than late. The reason I bid 90 should be obvious.

I find the fact scum didn't hide any of the bids yesterday interesting. Makes me wonder if they bid 500 on watcher early in an attempt to appear town when they claim it later. On the flip side if town got watcher it would be one reason for the relatively unexpected Distance NK - avoid being watched.

90 specifically? That seems a bit weird

[VFP]

For the record, this has nothing with voting me or scum reading me otherwise I'd have argued before.

I was actually preparing my lim and already placed what I have on the ninja.
But before I go, I'm going to officially put me and SSBM into guaranteed scum within us.
I'll look through later and say as I need to but oh boy is that slip up actually pretty big here!

[ssbm_Kyouko]

410+90=500. Roleblocker sold for 410 on d1

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hmm...

Spoiler: false meta

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

[VFP]

And you're doubling down to say I wasn't snippy or posted like 957
Because I see a few on a skim read only.

Are we going for this then? 100% scum in me or you, yes?
Or both...

[VFP]

I'm okay to commit to this. Every game scum has used meta against me, it's false.
So I'm good with putting SSBM into the dirt on my town flip like the filthy scum they are!