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[Smoke and Mirrors]

So we're agreed that there's 100% scum in us?

Weird post to make if you’re town.

Not for VFP/Vedith
(He outed in another game so I consider that open season on disclosing who the alt is of)

Well, I’m the most confident on Imaginality and VFP has refused to even consider voting him, which is the main reason I think that’s the team + Imaginality’s posts which sound aligned with VFP.

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: imaginality
Recent posting has made me feel like the odds of VFP and kyouko being aligned are lesser so within the {VFP,kyouko,imaginality} POE this is the sensible choice until I can turn my feelings into logical thoughts

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Here’s my thing. I get the VFP+imaginality associatives, but rn I feel like something about kyouko is scummier
My immediate attempt to hit that gut feeling with a tangible expression is that something about the picks maybe feels off?

Well based on my reads, Imaginality makes the most sense as buddies with either. I don’t think VFP and Kyouku are doing scum theatre, so that’s why my vote is on him and not VFP.

But so far, VFP has not even been willing to consider voting him, which just increases my confidence that I’m probably right on an Imaginality/VFP team.

And both voted SS and are also pushing Mastina as well, so neither one has done anything to make me think I’m wrong.

[VFP]

VOTE: imaginality

I'm over it.
This game has had the most awkward scum reads on me from missing "/" In a post to only I kill Flea.

Remember I bid, 500 on ninja so an outbid means scum get this and suncecim never the NK I'll just confirm tomorrow.

I'm sure I'm just bussing scum here now though or some other thing, then a green flip I was tmi.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VOTE: imaginality
Recent posting has made me feel like the odds of VFP and kyouko being aligned are lesser so within the {VFP,kyouko,imaginality} POE this is the sensible choice until I can turn my feelings into logical thoughts

+1

Exactly, I don’t see VFP and Kyouku as aligned based on him trying to switch the vote from Kitty to VFP and I hard tr everyone else in this game, so both scum in Imaginality/VFP/Kyouku. I just don’t think it’s him but if I’m wrong on VFP, Imaginality endgames regardless which one he’s partnered with. But everything about Imaginality’s ISO and the similar pushes makes me lean towards Imaginality/VFP but I think if I’m wrong on one of them, it’s more likely to be VFP than Imaginality but I actually don’t think I’m wrong though.

VFP’s reaction to my suggesting he vote Imaginality really really pinged me. I got the impression that Kyouku otoh, isn’t actually opposed to that.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VOTE: imaginality

I'm over it.
This game has had the most awkward scum reads on me from missing "/" In a post to only I kill Flea.

Remember I bid, 500 on ninja so an outbid means scum get this and suncecim never the NK I'll just confirm tomorrow.

I'm sure I'm just bussing scum here now though or some other thing, then a green flip I was tmi.

I’m extremely confident Imaginality flips scum, I have more doubt on you especially knowing who you are but I think this will help us solve the game.

[imaginality]

Yes, exactly which wouldn’t in itself be sus except he made several posts bitching and complaing about town not bidding enough. Meanwhile, he was saving most of his pennies for later.

@Imaginality, why is you bidding “obvious”? If you wanted town to bid high and you bid low, that’s obviously hypocritical.

He encouraged all of town to bid high but he bids next to nothing. Why didn’t he take his own advice?

I was really hoping I could find a good reason to scum read you because your tone annoys me and I can't really engage with the meta arguments. And it would be convenient for scum to get rid of someone who was on the Kitty wagon and not on the cyrus one.

Annoyingly there are two good reasons to town read you. One is I think if you were scum you would have picked up on what's not stated in the above, as you would have more reason to. Your continued focus on it feels more like confused town than bluffing scum.

The second is you are so tunnelled on me being scum you're going to have to backtrack a heap if I get elimmed and flip town.

Then vote me.
I've already clarified I've bid what I have on the Ninja role.
You being wrong works better to be shown on me rather than Imaginality for multiple reasons.

Let's not give it the talk if you aren't going to move your vote back to me.
And again, let's not let off that SSBM did a strange swap off me even though I'm scum to them.

If you really believe Kyuku is scum, then vote Imaginality because that is the only possible slot that even makes sense as a possible Kyouku buddy.

He was totally willing to let SS hang yesterday until I pushed the Cyrus switch, so suggesting that Kyouku and SS are buddies makes 0 sense.

Just in case anyone is skim reading, the 'he' here refers to Kyouko rather than me - I never joined the cyrus wagon.

VOTE: imaginality
Recent posting has made me feel like the odds of VFP and kyouko being aligned are lesser so within the {VFP,kyouko,imaginality} POE this is the sensible choice until I can turn my feelings into logical thoughts

Why's Gamma accepting the VFP/Kyouko/me POE?

Towards the end of D1 I think Kitty and VFP were the only realistic elim candidates. Gamma jumped on Kitty wagon. I initially thought it was unlikely for scum to bus unless VFP was also scum. I guess Gamma + VFP is possible but I am also wondering whether Gamma would be bold enough to bus even if VFP is town.

VOTE: imaginality
Recent posting has made me feel like the odds of VFP and kyouko being aligned are lesser so within the {VFP,kyouko,imaginality} POE this is the sensible choice until I can turn my feelings into logical thoughts

+1

Exactly, I don’t see VFP and Kyouku as aligned based on him trying to switch the vote from Kitty to VFP and I hard tr everyone else in this game, so both scum in Imaginality/VFP/Kyouku. I just don’t think it’s him but if I’m wrong on VFP, Imaginality endgames regardless which one he’s partnered with. But everything about Imaginality’s ISO and the similar pushes makes me lean towards Imaginality/VFP but I think if I’m wrong on one of them, it’s more likely to be VFP than Imaginality but I actually don’t think I’m wrong though.

VFP’s reaction to my suggesting he vote Imaginality really really pinged me. I got the impression that Kyouku otoh, isn’t actually opposed to that.

I think ssbm_Kyouko deliberately buddied me a bit especially on D2.

I noticed (see some earlier post of mine) ssbm_Kyouko tried to shift people away from Kitty wagon to VFP wagon D1.
#406
And I noticed ssbm_Kyouko has seemed happy to be led onto town wagon D2, and town wagon today.
And ssbm_Kyouko picked up on what I wasn't saying about my bid.

VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko and if he flips scum I think it makes VFP likely town.

Also if he flips scum it imo makes watcher a tad more likely to be scum (if he boosted it for town cred while planning for him or his buddy to bid 500 on it early if it came up).

Bonus point of slimming ssbm - he claimed hitman and so if he is scum and hasn't used that power yet it dies with him.

[imaginality]

with scum really unable to afford another elim today and how strongly the VFP wagon built I think VFP is more likely town and that at least one scum is on the wagon.

Current VFP voters are:

VFP (5) - Mastina - Distance - marcistar - Cyrus62 - ssbm_Kyouko


Of those voters:

With ssbm I feel like I have a good sense of what I find suspicious and what I find townie, and I'm happy to watch and wait.

I'm happy to keep my vote on mastina for kicking off the VFP wagon (which given there had been votes on VFP end of D1, was quite likely to build up), and if mastina flips scum I think it's worth looking at the Kitty wagon again.

cyrus seems all over the place. I don't think that's an act. I feel like unless scum aren't bothering to talk, cyrus as scum would have slightly more of a clue about certain things?

I need to reread marci but retyping all this means it's 2am now, so sleep first, iso after. Pedit: would marci have unvoted if there was a competing wagon? If VFP gets elimmed and flips town that unvote will look convenient in retrospect.

Hmm... If I was right here, with Distance dying and cyrus flipping town, that narrows it down to scum being at least one of {mastina, marcistar, ssbm_Kyouko}

[imaginality]

Hot take: Smoke and Mirrors vs ssbm is tvt.

Doesn't seem like an especially hot take to me, but why?

Well Smoke and Mirrors is clearly town here because this is transparently Nancy's towngame through and through. It's painfully obviously Nancy's town meta, with every marker which that entails, beyond her ability to fake it as scum. Even were she having the scum performance of her life, I meant it when I said that the fact that the slot was voting scum on D1 and contains Pooky means that the slot is 100% guaranteed locktown. It IS literally a nearly 20-year-old tell for Pooky that is borderline trust tell. Pooky's relative absence from the game be damned, he's not letting a tell that old randomly be broken. He's not flaked from the hydra altogether, per Nancy and also per common sense. (If Pooky

were

100% completely and entirely out of the game I would expect Nancy to replace in solo or replace her hydra with a different hydra to get a different partner.)

ssbm is also someone there's a lot of reasons for me to think is town, but beyond those, ssbm vs Smoke+Mirrors just has literally every single classical marker of a TvT fight. It screams, bleeds, TvT to its very core at every stage.

He's town is why. He was the alternative to Kitty.

Why can't the two top wagons be S/S?

My thoughts exactly. There's nothing in how the game has played out which says that VFP was a scumdriven counterwagon to the towndriven wagon on scum. And for that matter, nothing but paranoia about VFP's L-1 wagon on D2 having scum there, when multiple members of the VFP wagon on D2 are town with a high degree of certainty. cyrus? Flipped town. Distance? Flipped town. Smoke and Mirrors? 100% conftown to me. me? Also conftown to me. marcistar? Highly highly likely to be town. The L-1 wagon on VFP was in fact in high probablity? All town.

The only possible scum there is marcistar who Distance, the nightkill, hard-vouched as being town, a read I am inclined to sheep.

I realize that others don't have the advantage of conftowning me so that objectively I could be scum on the VFP wagon--but from my point of view the wagon is as close to confirmed all-town as it can be without being confirmed as all town.

@Mastina do you tr kyuku? Having her top srs 2 slots that actually voted scum really weirds me out.

Not to the same extent as I townread the scum voters D1 or the MistyX/S_S slot, but loosely? Yes. I see enough in SSBM's contributions to think they are more likely town than not, including their usage of the Market Owner power, and they were voted Market Owner on D1 by, how many people? 5? That's 5 people who trusted SSBM to be one of the towniest yet mechanically-best players and to some extent I want to trust in their read.

So SSBM isn't a top townread but IS a townread.

My readslist right now would be:
{Distance, Smoke and Mirrors, Imaginality, Gamma Emerald} (all conftown to me)
Mistyx/Something_Smart (basically conftown to me)

ssbm_Kyouko (townread but not the locktown tier of the above)

(huge gap)

marcistar

(somewhat of a gap)

{cyrus, Cupcake Butterfly} (I think exactly one of them is scum but not both)

VFP

I just isoed those three for their reads/comments on each other. Marc's interactions with/comments on ssbm seem genuine to me.

Mastina's read on ssbm is fairly consistently 'town but not top tier town' kinda stuff, and often distancing herself by saying 'well other people are saying ssbm is town' kind of stuff.
Mastina on marci starts off more neutral but shifts to calling marci 'very very likely' town, I think partly again due to other people's meta reads on marci.
Ssbm fairly consistently has mastina in 'a bit town but not top tier town' category.

Marci and ssbm interacted a fair bit D1, I felt it was genuine rather than scum talking with scum.
Marci hasn't had much to say on mastina but did give a weak town read and voted VFP over mastina when I asked people to get off the fence.

My conclusion is if two of these three are scum, then based on interactions I think it's mastina and ssbm. Outside chance of mastina and marci.

[imaginality]

To expand: the "I think ssbm is town because other people are saying he is and I believe them" line is convenient for mastina in a mastina-ssbm scenario because she can boost ssbm's standing while also being nicely set up to say "well shucks, I only town read ssbm because

those people

told me he was," if ssbm gets elimmed and flips red.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

S_S, mastina, did either of you bid more than 325 on cop D1?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And Gamma what feels off about the picks? Are you talking about the ones I enhanced or the ones that showed up?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Regarding mastina, I want her and VFP to interact today because I think it's TvS - this is why I'm backing off of VFP right now, because I dont want to do the same thing with him that I did with S&M yesterday.

Marci I agree is genuine in all her posting, and VFP is supposed to know her scum game really well according to her. I dont think he's voiced concerns on the slot so if he is town she probably is too. Independent of that though she is still strongly town.

I looked for Gamma games but our games are like 4-5 years old and he seems to have a different playstyle but in 2213 I saw that as town he was always on the final wagon that resulted in elim the first 3 Days, on d4 he was on the counter to me, andres, when I faked a guilty on andres as town. I was hard defending Gamma and I got limmed. D5 Gamma was elimmed in limlo. So what I'm saying is it's consistent with his last town game to be voting the way he is. I just feel like he was more actively engaged in the last game than here.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think ssbm_Kyouko deliberately buddied me a bit especially on D2.

Do you have examples?

[Gamma Emerald]

And Gamma what feels off about the picks? Are you talking about the ones I enhanced or the ones that showed up?

Ones you enhanced

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Regarding mastina, I want her and VFP to interact today because I think it's TvS - this is why I'm backing off of VFP right now, because I dont want to do the same thing with him that I did with S&M yesterday.

Marci I agree is genuine in all her posting, and VFP is supposed to know her scum game really well according to her. I dont think he's voiced concerns on the slot so if he is town she probably is too. Independent of that though she is still strongly town.

I looked for Gamma games but our games are like 4-5 years old and he seems to have a different playstyle but in 2213 I saw that as town he was always on the final wagon that resulted in elim the first 3 Days, on d4 he was on the counter to me, andres, when I faked a guilty on andres as town. I was hard defending Gamma and I got limmed. D5 Gamma was elimmed in limlo. So what I'm saying is it's consistent with his last town game to be voting the way he is. I just feel like he was more actively engaged in the last game than here.

If Kyouku is scum here, then he’s doing an excellent job of sounding really really townie with this.
My gut is very happy with my current vote.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And Gamma what feels off about the picks? Are you talking about the ones I enhanced or the ones that showed up?

Ones you enhanced

N1 enhances:
2-shot Watcher - I entertained removing this instead of removing tracker when slotting in gravedigger, but reasoned that a watcher would be able to protect me or my replacement indirectly by threatening to watch us. I didnt think I could afford BP so on the chance I did survive, this investigative could protect me. If distance had spent his money and also could not afford BP, this protection would have extended to him.
2-shot Gravedigger - I don't remember what my reasoning was here. I think I wanted to have it available to check Kitty, but that seems like not a good target in retrospect. Assuming Marci is town though, this turns out to have been a very useful target, so we got lucky I guess. I was going to put 2-shot tracker here immediately after seeing the kitty flip, but rethought in the morning and went with gravedigger.
2-shot Auction Detective - I sent this with the intent to enhance 1-shot AD the following day. I dont think 2 ADs on the same day is that good because you're getting info on who.else bought AD possibly, and ideally you would want to identify who was buying on a day when there are pro-scum roles.
1-shot Bulletproof - I expected it was still possible i would die and chose this because whether or not i died, it would have been good to have a self-protection available for my successor. Overnight on N1 this was Distance.

I switched my successor to VFP during my shitfight with S&M. I have changed it since.

N2 enhances:
1-shot Tracker - I chose both trackers because they are the last investigative remaining after chance-rolling the 1-shot AD
2-shot Tracker
1-shot Doctor - we're out of doctor shots now presumably so enhancing this now gives us the power back and keeps scum second-guessing if a doc will stop their ideal target
1-shot Bulletproof - same idea, but as more people are out of money now it's less likely my successor happens to have the money to afford this. I considered enhancing Jailkeeper instead of this since it can also be a doctor, but I didnt want a roleblock to land on any of the investigative from yesterday or on the trackers from today

Got a meeting coming up, but theres all my reasoning on picks

[imaginality]

I think ssbm_Kyouko deliberately buddied me a bit especially on D2.

Do you have examples?

On a reread I retract this. Maybe it was Cupcake I was thinking of?

[marcistar]

maybe im dumb but guys i really really think imaginalitys town please dont elim him

[imaginality]

Since a couple of people have already figured it out and we only have a day and a bit real-time left, I will explain for anyone still wondering: my bid of 90 D2 (on 1-shot AD) was because I won roleblocker for 410 D1.

I bid 90 without any real expectation I might win the role (though that's why I went for 1-shot AD - on the off-chance it could have been overlooked by other bidders, more as a breadcrumb to anyone who ADed me. I thought if they were town and figured out I won the RB it would prove my bids are consistent with my in-thread arguing that we should bid high. And also I don't think scum would want to give a clue that they got the RB so the crumb itself should be seen as town-indicative.

I wasn't particularly worried about scum being the AD because I thought they'd have better players to target from their POV, if they did get an AD, and also thought they'd likely save their money D2 for scum roles in later days so the chances of them getting AD didn't seem super high to me. Also just mathematically there's more chance it would be won by town.

As a side note, I also don't particularly think scum would bid high for RB D1, though others may have different views. Hitman which ssbm bid for, I see differently, since that 1-shot could guarantee a kill on an important target in various scenarios. 1-shot RB doesn't really do that, unless protective roles are outed or scum guess right.

When S&M said they'd ADed me but didn't draw the obvious conclusion, like I say, that seemed townie because I feel like it would be important for scum to figure out who the RB is so I feel they would have made the mental connection of 500-90=410, and perhaps not even have shared the details of my bid in public.

Ssbm and marci both picked up on what the 90 means.

You could still question whether scum would remark publicly on that rather than privately, I can see it both ways because it is a way for them to look like they're doing something useful. Also marci used it to read me as town whereas ssbm just commented on it in a musing way which seems the more questionable of the two to me.

Gamma also commented saying it was a weird bid. I think that post is a little more likely to come from town than scum.

I feel like it is obvious enough now to scum (if they didn't figure it out from S&M's post they will have from thinking about marci/ssbm/vfp's posts) that there is no point me not just claiming it outright, hence this post.

I haven't used my RB yet. I was hoping to make it further into the game and use it when we're down to one scum left. Right now even if I targeted scum their partner could have carried out the kill, and there were no other anti-town PRs to target.

In the absence of protection I'd expect it likely I die tonight. I don't think scum would want one of their later day NKs to be blocked.

If people believe my claim and believe me to be town, I'd suggest we deter scum from me without necessarily using up our powers. E.g. If watcher watch me on a coin flip, and doc protect me on a coin flip, that would give me 75% chance of protection if both are scum/dead and 50% if one is.

At any rate even if you don't think I deserve any protection, elim me on a later day rather than today because there's a nonzero chance I'd be able to do something useful with my RB in the meantime.

Also, the mod confirmed to me I can't roleblock hitman so a bonus reason to join me in voting ssbm instead of me today is if ssbm is scum they lose hitman.

[imaginality]

EBWOP: above should read marci/ssbm/

vfp's

Gamma's posts.

I did have a hunch VFP had cottoned on too when saying it was better to elim themselves rather than me but a. There could be other reasons for them to say that (e.g. how much info a mis-elim would give on them vs on me) and b. even if it was a factor in that post I think that comment was vague enough it wouldn't lead others to deduce I have the RB power.

I do still think VFP is more likely town than scum. I would be okay with eliminating from {mastina, Something_Smart, and ssbm_Kyouko} today.

And I won't be voting from {Smoke & Mirrors, marcistar, VFP}.

Cupcake and Gamma I'm open to hearing a case on but don't have much on either of them myself. I'll be rereading them in this next night phase if I'm not elimmed today.

[Gypyx]

omg, my last 2 VC's didn't get posted

fuck me, and sorry for the trouble players

[Something_Smart]

Let me ask you Marci, if SSBM is town, then why are they not killed as the MO?

Is killing the MO that much of a priority for scum?

[VFP]

Let me ask you Marci, if SSBM is town, then why are they not killed as the MO?

Is killing the MO that much of a priority for scum?

Yes. Town SSBM MO is a priority kill here with what is being claimed as enhanced to why.
What kind of question is this? Just to look busy?

[marcistar]

something_smart do u got any reads?