FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Cabd]

With 14 players alive, it will takes 8 votes to select a master. Master selection phase will be allocated 7 days.

Saber (2): Caster, Saber
Assassin (1): Rider
Berserker (5): Archer, Avenger, Ruler, Moon Cancer, Beast

(expired on 2021-07-04 22:00:49)

Page usage: 21/42 (1 credited for mod ISO)

[Servant Berserker]

Wow my formatting got fucked.

Middle two paragraphs are supposed to be at the end.

[Servant Foreigner]

I never received a PM on my real account which I was waiting for.
You can claim to scum read me, but let's drop the bullshit reasons as its just a wierd thing to argue.

lol i got PM on main

lol i got PM on main

Interesting because I can verify

Servant Avenger

's claim of having not received a PM on my main. I did not receive a daystart PM on any account other than this.

I didn’t receive anything on my main either, I’m just a lunatic who refreshes MS constantly and saw cabd had unlocked the thread

Ave said that never received PM on main and i remembered receiving one. I guess it was just a role pm.

[Servant Foreigner]

@Berserker.

Let's assume you're town. Your townreads are correct.

What do you suppose the scum team is trying to do?

Why have they chosen to not contest and allow you to just waltz into Town-Leadership and take Mastery without really putting up any kind of fight whatsoever?

Have you seen anyone shading Saber? As i said before nobody does it.

[Servant Lancer]

It's rather hard for me to believe someone didn't realize the game started for almost 16 hours. I recognize that not everyone is as obsessive an addict to this website as I am, but am I really to believe Avenger was simply not paying attention at all and it took him that long to come to the game thread? We all received notice of the game starting, it's not like he wouldn't have reason to check his messages.

The excuse strains credulity.

I never received a PM on my real account which I was waiting for.
You can claim to scum read me, but let's drop the bullshit reasons as its just a wierd thing to argue.

Actually Alter claimed that we received notice of (daystart? or just role PM?)

[Servant Lancer]

@Berserker.

Let's assume you're town. Your townreads are correct.

What do you suppose the scum team is trying to do?

Why have they chosen to not contest and allow you to just waltz into Town-Leadership and take Mastery without really putting up any kind of fight whatsoever?

Have you seen anyone shading Saber? As i said before nobody does it.

Ruler is the most notable person shading saber, and Archer expressed doubts as well

[Servant Foreigner]

I will hit on this further later.

later? when?

[Servant Berserker]

When someone gets confirmed.

I'd also like Caster to case me and archer before the hammer happens.

[Servant Alter Ego]

One of the potentially too specific hints; if Servant Saber is who I believe, then trusting their claim would be a large mistake as they are prominently among the mafiascum population of frequent fakeclaimers.

I was not aware there is a significant population of people that are known for fakeclaiming, as opposed to that being simply a thing that mafia does to win games. I also don't think Saber is someone who's particularly infamous for doing so, so clearly we don't think they're the same person. Why not cut the vagueness and give me something tangible to work with? Explain why you see them as untrustworthy, in simple terms based on what they've said this game. You've avoided giving actual reasons so far in lieu of vague allusions to meta that aren't helpful.

I actually like Ruler for town.

You're going to need to explain that one to me.

162 is the opposite of a town confession; it is explicitly a corrupt player making an excuse for not having an easier time formulating reads. I can point to dozens of players who have used similar excuses when corrupt but none from players using it when pure of heart because it is inherently a corrupt excuse.

At least one town player (possibly more, I don't feel like checking), said literally this exact thing in the first game, so forgive me if I don't find this reasoning to be especially compelling.

171 is an easy accusation to throw out as a corrupt individual and not one likely to be indicative of the accused being corrupt. It is in fact a post disproportionately likely to be made by the corrupt specifically because it is such an easy accusation to be made against Servant Assassin.

It being an accusation that is likely to be inaccurate doesn't make it inherently scummy, though, town make bad reads all the time. I can see why people didn't like assassin's read of lancer and foreigner wasn't the only one to push back on it. I don't think that particular post is inherently

towny

per se but in and of itself I don't think it's bad.

This is taking a look at which faction would be more likely to make the post in question. What possible advantage, what possible goal, was there in Servant Moon Cancer making that post if corrupt? It is not going to sway the minds of the masses. It is not going to convince the town that they are wrong on any of their reads. It cannot dissuade the town from pushing on the corrupt and cannot dissuade the town from correctly identifying those pure of heart. So what possible goal can there be for a corrupted servant to post 226? I can think of no motive and no reason for it.

I think you're assigning too much credit here for naked anti-consensus reads, if moon was able to back them up with something solid I might be convinced their beliefs were sincerely held but when I questioned them on it their explanations were absolutely horrendous and felt more like they wanted to ensnare me in a cheap "gotcha!". Something doesn't explicitly have to be

advantageous

for scum to do it, and that seems to be the crutch for a lot of your reasoning. The question

should

be whether you see their behavior as genuine, and it is incredibly hard to see any reason why Moon's reads are sincerely held or have real conviction to them given the fact that they don't seem to care to advance them in any meaningful way despite people not agreeing with them.

For instance, 464 does a good job of explaining the differences between their reads and mine. Servant Moon Cancer shows a strong individual thought process there unique to them

What is the strong individual thought process, exactly? All their explanations are completely vague and halfhearted, with many saying nothing at all.

By the same token, Foreigner's scumread of the widely townread Caster is similarly anti-consensus, but the strength and conviction with which they are pushing it feels a lot more real.

It is also in part because there is no backtrack. There is simply a flip. A corrupt servant is more likely to try and justify a shift in their reads thanks to fear of suspicion were they to not justify it. (You even point out how this works with your take on me and how if I were corrupt I could justify a shift in read on Servant Saber. So you must be aware of what I am talking about.) A servant pure of heart fears nothing, so they feel no such obligation and are more free to truthfully speak their mind, even if it involves a shift from their prior thoughts.

This is just absurdly convoluted reasoning, it's all cosmic brain thinking that aims for a counterintuitive explanation in avoidance of the simpler one. The change in reads looks bad, so...obviously, scum wouldn't make it, because scum never make posts that look bad, right? Why would scum simply shift their opinion to supporting whoever the popular master vote is at the moment? (the motive should be obvious). The assumption that only town would make a post that has bad optics makes no sense, because I'd expect town to at least be self-aware of how they appear to others and be willing to address that, but they haven't, at all.

It's making an inherent assumption about the skill level of Moon Cancer that is unknowable due to the nature of an anonymous game and is likely to be outright fallacious.

With the amount of water you're carrying for Moon Cancer you'd think there was a fire in need of extinguishing.

Maybe there is.

[Servant Alter Ego]

It's rather hard for me to believe someone didn't realize the game started for almost 16 hours. I recognize that not everyone is as obsessive an addict to this website as I am, but am I really to believe Avenger was simply not paying attention at all and it took him that long to come to the game thread? We all received notice of the game starting, it's not like he wouldn't have reason to check his messages.

The excuse strains credulity.

I never received a PM on my real account which I was waiting for.
You can claim to scum read me, but let's drop the bullshit reasons as its just a wierd thing to argue.

Actually Alter claimed that we received notice of (daystart? or just role PM?)

The notice of day start was on my alternate account, not my main. I had been camping out on this account waiting for the thread opening, though. I was extremely excited for this game and eager to get started, I would have expected most players to have a similar level of enthusiasm but it seems as though that sentiment is not universal.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I just had a ludicrous thought flash across my head as to why Ruler doesn't want Saber as a master and is using vague allegations to discredit them. I'm not sure if there's a good way to explain it.

[Servant Caster]

I’m sure you’ve seen the recent uptick in do nothing and lose scumteams, right Caster?

I wouldn’t be surprised if they pushed for me to get the master because I haven’t spent any time talking about my role. There’s a thought that crossed my mind that if Saber is scum, it’s incredibly likely to find more scum in the “just follow the mechanical strength” group. But besides that point, how often is it scum is actually on the same page in day play?

Pedit-
There is always a need for reevaluation down the line when more information is made available. See the recent MD thread about mind melding, in situations like this where information is limited, it’s things like that which help jump someone up the reads list. If people decide to wagon them, then so be it. I’m not going to shut down people who think differently, and I’m not going to let those at the top coast either.

At the end of the day I want to win this game. If I make a mistake in an early readslist (that was somewhat unpolished), I would obviously be open to hearing about it down the line. But I’d require actual casing, for pretty much everything. We can’t use meta or anything, this is going to come down to who can find scum and case them the best.

I’ll toss this question back at you. If scum were to contest, how exactly would they do that besides the consistent nay saying and critiquing the wagon. Hell, some could even argue having scummier members vote the wagon to try and stunt it’s momentum is a tactic.

Yes I've noticed there's lots of players on this site who don't understand how to play scum and end up getting run over.

If this is the case this game, it really wouldn't matter what I do, we will win the game - however I prefer to assume that the opposition is competent and play assuming they are doing something rather than being fully passive.

If you're right that Archer-Caster-Berserker are all town, one way scum could drive a schism and set up a better D1 for themselves is to try to get me master'd so that when I IC, I push you/Archer for the elimination. I think if scum are unable to get master'd they would want a master who is not going to be able to nail them.

[Servant Caster]

Have you seen anyone shading Saber? As i said before nobody does it.

There was a lot of resistance to Saber as soon as he became the lead wagon

There is no resistance to berserker as far as I can tell other than me and I know I'm town.

[Servant Foreigner]

Have you seen anyone shading Saber? As i said before nobody does it.

There was a lot of resistance to Saber as soon as he became the lead wagon

There is no resistance to berserker as far as I can tell other than me and I know I'm town.

quotes

[Servant Berserker]

For instance, 464 does a good job of explaining the differences between their reads and mine. Servant Moon Cancer shows a strong individual thought process there unique to them, with reads that serve no function if they are corrupted.

Servant Ruler gave great reasons for many people. Ruler is terribly wrong on Ego, and the reasons for the reads on Ego, Rider and Lancer are too weak for me.

They only highlight the differences in your readslist. They do mention which reads they found weaker, but not why they are weaker (or why the other ones are stronger).

It is also in part because there is no backtrack. There is simply a flip. A corrupt servant is more likely to try and justify a shift in their reads thanks to fear of suspicion were they to not justify it.

This is a solid point I also considered, and its why I've been trying to get more information on what exactly they are seeing.

pedit-
Did you finally go read Cabd's post? He highlights that some picks would be likely to devolve into a tunnel. I've limited how much I've talked about scumreads before this and have focused more on the town side to try and prevent this should I have become our final choice.

And again, you aren't the only person throwing shade at my wagon. Multiple people have complained about the wagon composition, Beast has outright debated with me over it.

As for why you have not been pushed for it, I said early on I didn't want you as master and there was some agreement from the masses. It seems most people have been regarding you as lost, and it's hard for scum to make a push for a "lost" player to be the master.

[Servant Caster]

quotes

Scum in this situation can promise everything. Once they win elections they are tree stumped anyway, no risk of being killed for lieing. It shouldn't be used as indication.

I agree, which is why I don't claim anything that I can't back up or is extravagant. Second, I don't want to be a miselimination for overpromising and under delivering.

I started to soften on the idea of you being the choice, based on the caginess -- but this feels off to me again :/

It does not feel totally consistent.

For starters "I don't claim anything that I can't back up or is extravagant" - when you already claimed "My NP is one of the strongest in the game" in post 51

And also, the second half does not make sense to me "I don't want to be a miselimination for overpromising and under delivering." In what scenario is this actually a worry? If you "over promise, and under deliver" do you mean that you think we might miselim you AFTER we make you an IC - just because your power does not pay off the way you promise? Or are you saying that if you tell us how great you would be as an IC, then if we don't make you an IC, we would then kill you for not living up to the promise? - Because that also does not make a lot of sense.

Either way, this seems like a non-issue worry to have - so I find it hard to look at it as a genuine worry coming from you

Does anyone have serious objections to Saber getting the boost.

I'd like to move on.

I am not super comfortable making Saber the master.

I am currently leaning Berserker personally.

To summarize:

Servants Alter Ego, Archer, Lancer, Berserker, and Beast

are strongly pure of heart.

Servants Moon Cancer, Caster, and Assassin

I lean towards being good over evil.

Servants Avenger, and not-yet-posted

I have no read on.

Servants Foreigner, Saber, and Rider

I believe are corrupt.

[Servant Caster]

@Berserker

When did you decide you wanted to be Mastered?

Was this before the game began or sometime during the game?

[Servant Berserker]

My role is fairly strong so I knew I wouldn’t hate it. I had no problem giving it over to someone who could actually lead, but the only two contenders were both more focused on the mechanical side instead of the other responsibilities.

So I guess before I knew I kind of wanted it. After game start I decided I need to more actively campaign.

[Servant Beast]

Fingers crossed.

Why are you crossing your fingers?

@Lancer: I've always wanted to say this: It's a secret~

[Servant Assassin]

@Berserker, Your townreads focus a fair amount on who agrees with you. I find this a significant problem for thread health. A good master/stump cannot be vulnerable to buddying. Every stump game town wins without toxic cheating replaceouts won because of the fact the stumps were open to criticism by town. I'm worried that is not the case because of your townread rational, particularly on Archer and Alter.

I'm just going to use this post as springboard and then segue into a broad holistic overview of my thoughts on various subjects this game.

Firstly with regard to the above, I am not worried whatsoever about berserkers ability to play a town leader role. He's a reasonable player, he does not ignore people, he's diligent, and I'm betting experienced. After his last reads wall any reservations I had as to his alignment are gone. Frankly Saber, as I've seen more of your play, I've grown more skeptical not of your alignment, which I think is still likely town, but of your ability to play competently in general and even to use your role effectively. You have now, and earlier in different contexts, brought up the concept of scum buddying as a tactic to watch out for. I do not think this is something to be overly concerned about this game even if it is happening somewhere, and with regards to berserker, I do think the man is capable of read fluidity. I do not think his top town reads have undergone much change (aside from maybe caster) but I can sense it with how he approaches my own read which looks like its taking more than one curve.

Now were I master, I might have this problem. Whether gained through buddying or not, my confident town reads tend to stick forever once I've made them, and I am extremely stubborn. I still just cannot imagine Caster/Alter-ego/Ruler being scum. Personally the fact that Ruler appears further down most people's reads lists is simply shocking to me. On the flip side, I am having a fair amount of difficulty establishing a solid scum read. The candidates I've thought about this game that remain for me now, namely, lancer/foreigner/avenger/moon caster have not really done anything that is explicitly scummy, that is, something that I can go ahead and say to myself "town never does this," or even "scum will do this a lot more than town would". A few of those names appear in other people's scum reads, but I simply do not have that same decisiveness. Foreigner's a good example of this. The points berserker makes about him to call him lean town, are not things to call someone town over. When I get to Ruler's retort, I think it goes too far in the opposite direction. of the three posts discussed, 162 is null, 171 is definitely a potshot which I don't like but can't say if it's scummy, and 388 is fine to me if a bit pithy. My uncertainty about foreigner doesn't factor in these posts anyway, its how they approach caster, which I find to be on the slight scummy side.

As for the talk around scum's approach to master candidates and resistance therein... I don't really think scum has much of a plan from the empirical evidence. Basically their chance came and went within the first six pages. If people think they go for the mechanic angle, I really don't think saber was their best bet. Perhaps they sold themselves as able to pull it off in their scum PT but kinda doubt it. If anything I'd have thought berserker's method would be more like what scum might try if they tired at all, as it was a bit of a strongman job. The lack of polarization on the choices is unfortunate. There very well might have been some info to be gleaned but I don't consider that a major loss, or a particularly strong worry as some here might.

[Servant Avenger]

Ave said that never received PM on main and i remembered receiving one. I guess it was just a role pm.

I some how doubt this. I think it was a scum slip.
At least it's going to make it interesting as soon as day phase starts.

[Servant Berserker]

The concept behind those somewhat innocuous quotes from Foreigner is the concept of a censor. I don’t think scum just comes out and says stuff like that, but town doesn’t really care.

[Servant Alter Ego]

Fingers crossed.

Why are you crossing your fingers?

When I read your post last night I thought it was hammer. Only realized this morning that it wasn't.

[Servant Assassin]

Ruler could you tell me, ignoring let's say a supposed fakeclaiming meta, but not any other meta, which posts of saber's you find have scum intent / simply are scummy to you. In a vacuum to me Saber looks town, but I know they are the type of player I can misjudge easily.

pedit @beserker: It's dawning on me that you specifically credit towniness to posts you think scum would filter. I think scum are generally sophisticated enough to be able to fake that kind of unfiltered, in the moment, posting from time to time, so I give it little to no credit most always.

[Servant Foreigner]

Ave said that never received PM on main and i remembered receiving one. I guess it was just a role pm.

I some how doubt this. I think it was a scum slip.
At least it's going to make it interesting as soon as day phase starts.

There is no point in scum receiving a PM on mains about daystart and town not getting one. You just shade me for miller thing