MT 2219: The Battle of Calculasia - Endgame

[Ircher]

Day 2 VC #4

DrippingGoofball (0):
Xlos (2): WhemeStar (654), Galron (663)
Jake the Wolfie (2): Almost50 (470), nomnomnom (477)
Titus (0):

nomnomnom (4) (F-2): DrippingGoofball (466), Titus (661), Toogeloo (670), T3 (671)

Not Voting (3): MathBlade, Xlos (655), Jake the Wolfie (665)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to fade a player.

Deadlines

This phase will end no earlier than Friday, July 2, 2021 9:45:00 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-02 21:45:00).
This phase will end no later than Sunday, July 11, 2021 9:45 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-11 21:45:00).

Moderator Notes

1: If you have regular weekend V/LA, please inform me each week.
2: Please let me know if you have a different pronoun preference than listed below.

Pronoun Key

1: DrippingGoofball : It
3: Xlos : He/him
4: Almost50 : He/him
5: Jake the Wolfie : Any
6: Galron : He/him
7: theslimer3 : They/them
8: T3 : He/him
9: Titus : She/her
10: WhemeStar : He/him
12: Toogeloo : They/them
13: nomnomnom : He/him

[Xlos]

let nomnomnom attempt to send out a message, and if someone can confirm them

So they can claim being roleblocked again, or have their buddy pretend they got confirmation?

So, if they're town, this is just a strictly good play, since we get a chance to turn a high-sus player into a confirmed town and get free confirmation that you're scummy.
No matter what their alignment is, situation 1 isn't going to happen, since the claim was that we have a town roleblocker, who isn't going to block again.
If their buddy pretends that they get confirmation, we've successfully tied two members of the scumteam together. If we flip you and you flip town, we can then get 2 free mafia annihilations the successive days for the cost of 1 town annihilation.

[Titus]

Combined with follow the cop on a doc flip is sus as fuck.

Why would this happen though? DGB is explicitly a 1 shot cop. It can't happen, even if scum lack a roleblocker.

[Titus]

let nomnomnom attempt to send out a message, and if someone can confirm them

So they can claim being roleblocked again, or have their buddy pretend they got confirmation?

So, if they're town, this is just a strictly good play, since we get a chance to turn a high-sus player into a confirmed town and get free confirmation that you're scummy.
No matter what their alignment is, situation 1 isn't going to happen, since the claim was that we have a town roleblocker, who isn't going to block again.
If their buddy pretends that they get confirmation, we've successfully tied two members of the scumteam together. If we flip you and you flip town, we can then get 2 free mafia annihilations the successive days for the cost of 1 town annihilation.

The problem with this route is it requires assuming scum don't have a roleblocker. It gives scum nomnomnom one more night to use whatever ability he does have. It forces the entire town to play around that possibility when a miller in a game with a one shot cop is scummy.

Second, there's no reason why he couldn't claim miller when he hammered if he knew that shit was scummy. A miller claim deters roleblocks and nightkills as it's rarely combined with something else.

[MathBlade]

Combined with follow the cop on a doc flip is sus as fuck.

Why would this happen though? DGB is explicitly a 1 shot cop. It can't happen, even if scum lack a roleblocker.

Replace DGB with another certain player who is being kinda weird and maybe should reread my paragraph. You’re also assuming DGB is one shot. A good strategy for a cop is to lie about being one shot when they aren’t.

My main focus was on you and whatever the modified rolecop thing is you claimed. Murdercat smart play would be to sit on you each night since you claimed cop. Which makes it sus Murdercat is dead.

[DrippingGoofball]

I asked why nomnom

I did answer. Do you ant me to repeat?

[DrippingGoofball]

My first two morning posts.

DIE SCUM DIE

VOTE: nomnomnom

To wit:

Honestly you're acting like Not_Mafia right now, so for the record VOTE: Flea

just for the record if Flea does actually flip town this is 90% a scumpost

The above is a scumpost.

[MathBlade]

High level thoughts based on reading so far:
(In order by playlist because mobile please ignore extra symbols hard to remove them on mobile)

DrippingGoofball+
>> Claimed cop with a guilty on nom. If town then high kill equity but why no reads? Why doesn’t it want to town tell or help find the other scum from its pov? Once a guilty is claimed hunting becomes extremely hard and I would think it would want to find scum no?

(Accounting for recent posts)
Found your answer (sorry for missing it and I am wholly unsatisfied.) That’s the thing though. You’re saying it’s a guilty over and over but you’re not doing the things a person with a guilty does. You’re expecting me to “just believe” your claim. If I believed your claim then I wouldn’t be criticizing it because I believed it. I don’t think a mod puts 2-3 cops of various types (you, Titus, A50) (even one shot) in a game with a full doctor and a roleblocker. Follow the cop becomes an unavoidable issue. I am trying to figure out who is truthtelling and who is lying and you just being “guilty” without a goddamn care in the world if you die that we will have your thoughts really really feels fake. Combined with your predisposition towards faking guilties and like I get the smart play is to vote nom here but I really don’t want to until I get you and things sorted.

(Irrelevant aside) please don’t joke about reporting players to admins. This seems in bad taste.

Flea The Magician+*
>> Horrible miselimination. Faer is like chicken. Leave faer in the oven a bit and faer will scum/town tell when faer gets free of medical issues. Time permitting need to look back on the wagon.

Xlos+
>> A(n) in your intro post is arbitrarily defined. I am happy you also share a bachelor’s in math like me. However I am not a fan of your posting. Assume for a moment that the distribution is as suggested and there is a scum in each of the kingdoms. Would we then just arbitrarily eliminate one? Flavor tends to be just flavor if/until demonstrated otherwise.

Initial reads seem to suffer from the too many town reads problem. Overall feels very scummy. Also not a fan of their suggestion from nomnom. I think there’s a major flaw in it and I think saying what is antitown but will do so if prompted.

Almost50+
Where oh where is my a50 gone? Claims rolecop similar to Titus. Neither A50 nor Titus are dead. A50 being quiet/unremarkable sends scum pings for me hard.

If nom is scum, a50 shoots up the list for possible buddies. If nom is town then A50 can go to null but must provide content.

Claimed cop why not dead?
Very much in the scum pool. Needs to show the wim.

Jake The Wolfie+
Jake’s ISO I guess would be town by PoE but ewww I hate their iso. (Already commented why earlier)

Galron+
I see where Galron started with T3 but I don’t think T3 is scum because it’s kinda dumb to claim informed early if scum. Yes usually informed is scum only but I think there’s some weird shit going on here. I like most of their progression and while I disagree with their logic on Nom I can see how someone would get there.

MathBlade+
Me the math loving person who apparently has all the value to the yard and makes all the theorems say what variables are enabled?

T3+
Claims informed. Two players back their informed claim. Very likely informed now just a matter of alignment. I don’t like how they went from DGB you’re dying tomorrow to where there at now. Would be hoping to see more good hunting than random votes.

Titus+
Claimed rolecop.
I believe her claim more so than a50’s.
In order of believability it is >> 1) Titus 2) DGB 3) A50.
I think her ISO is pretty solid but I will always have Titus paranoia. Especially when murdercat was killed over T3 and two cop claims. Like I get the smart thing and she’s doing it I just feel so much is unresolved.

WhemeStar+*
Is it bad you believe the nom claim? No? Your beliefs are your beliefs. I think with claims out so far I think it might be a good idea for you to extrapolate some. Assuming you’re town then if nom is town you either save Nom or demonstrate what pinged you and then we can use it as a starting point. If nom is scum then you learn how to judge nom claims better. Assuming you’re scum there’s risk involved but I think you’re town and it’s antitown to go into those risks so gonna quit rambling now.

11: MURDERCAT+
Dead doctor. Question is is MurderCat dead for being a doctor or reads or null kill? No one seems to be looking into this. Yes I am aware this looks bad on me if MC was killed for reads but theories should be built.

12: Toogeloo+
Very very likely roleblocker. I don’t see Town fake claiming to block nom and I don’t see Toog as scum fake claiming to save a buddy while claiming two shot. The two of that two shot could easily be leashed if scum. Very likely town two shot Roleblocker.

13: nomnomnom+
Their claim is just horrendously bad. Like “Werewolf is Mafia” levels bad. But I think in some ways the three cop problem is even worse.

Like I pretty much have a pool of would be okay to die peoples and that’s where I am at. I just kinda think something is hinky

[MathBlade]

Combined with follow the cop on a doc flip is sus as fuck.

Why would this happen though? DGB is explicitly a 1 shot cop. It can't happen, even if scum lack a roleblocker.

We have a whopping 3 cop claims (of some variety) Titus.
And a full blown doc.

Follow the cop is very much a thing even if all are one shot and it becomes even worse because the cop is distributed. Scum can no longer kill by play they kill by role.

Secondly, the only thing we have is DGB’s word it has one shot. I almost never trust a DGB cop claim having been burnt by DGB fake claiming before and its play doesn’t lead toward it being a cop. Like I get what the “smart” thing to do is just sheep it but I am struggling with that.

[DrippingGoofball]

You’re saying it’s a guilty over

I thought that doing this right out of the gate would be hint enough, and some players did take the hint.

You seem very focused on trying to find fault with me. But my choice of player did land me a guilty, so it was a very good choice.

You wrote: "I don’t think a mod puts 2-3 cops of various types (you, Titus, A50) (even one shot) in a game with a full doctor and a roleblocker." Did you notice that I said that I believe Toog may be a scum roleblocker?

[DrippingGoofball]

We have a whopping 3 cop claims

Some may be lying, but it's not me.

I believe the proof of this is when nomnomnom felt compelled to lie and fakeclaim miller.

Whether you believe that nom is in fact a town friendly-neighbor/miller (and I doubt an esteemed player such as yourself would fall for such egregious nonsense), or by applying Occam's Razor, plain scum, the only conclusion is that

I got a guilty on a player that is in fact guilty

.

[DrippingGoofball]

If find this very scummy coming from MathBlade because

my guilty is a correct guilty

.

the “smart” thing to do is just sheep it but I am struggling with that.

Another MathBlade quote pings:

"its play doesn’t lead toward it being a cop"

- as if my anyone can pigeonhole my play.

[MathBlade]

You’re saying it’s a guilty over

I thought that doing this right out of the gate would be hint enough, and some players did take the hint.

You seem very focused on trying to find fault with me. But my choice of player did land me a guilty, so it was a very good choice.

You wrote: "I don’t think a mod puts 2-3 cops of various types (you, Titus, A50) (even one shot) in a game with a full doctor and a roleblocker." Did you notice that I said that I believe Toog may be a scum roleblocker?

I am trying to sort you there is a difference. If you were a different player I think I don’t have as many reservations but you I do because of your past history so I have to sort you more. So it’s not a “trying to find fault” it’s a “is this a legit guilty” or “can we get a 2 for 1” or “is it taking advantage of a player it thinks can’t defend itself” or a “scum did something and you’re both town”

IF you’re town and IF no scum fuckery then yes it was a good choice. But here I kinda think an inno with a one shot would have been almost better here. Because then scum face the dilemma of killing for clears and the clear would have control and in a 13P game with 11 alive a clear is worth more I think in numbers.

So I am trying to figure out what world we are in.
If nom is town, sheep’s have a high probability of scum.
If nom is scum then non sheep’s have a high probability of scum.

I noticed where you said you think Toog is a roleblocker but I don’t think a two shot roleblocker works for this setup and depending upon the type of rolecop that exists (taking T3 at his word it does) because then a rolecop gets a guilty on Toog and two shots is low power for a one slot cop let alone a split cop. The newbie queue has 1 full cop and doc vs roleblocker. No other power.

A (one shot?) cop (you) + doc + roleblocker + two other cops (of unknown shots) = vast levels of power.

That’s kinda why like something doesn’t add up here.

I just want to take my time to figure out what.

[MathBlade]

If find this very scummy coming from MathBlade because

my guilty is a correct guilty

.

the “smart” thing to do is just sheep it but I am struggling with that.

Another MathBlade quote pings:

"its play doesn’t lead toward it being a cop"

- as if my anyone can pigeonhole my play.

Oh no! I don’t instantly trust the player with a record of doing this very thing now I am “pingy” I don’t give a fuck and am still gonna sort. Look how many fucks I give with how scummy I look I care about the truth.

Do you think the game is nom+me+Toog? If so then explain it. Push that world.

If not then explain your reads. If you think I am scum get me to talk more. You get more flies with honey than vinegar.

The only thing I have been asking you to do is Townie things that assume your guilty is genuine. Why do you insist on attacking me instead?

[MathBlade]

Furthermore “some may be lying”

Yet you aren’t even trying to sort which?

C’mon. Like seriously goofball.

If you think players are lying you can’t very well say I am scummy for attempting to figure out which.

That just seems very self serving and defensive.

[Xlos]

let nomnomnom attempt to send out a message, and if someone can confirm them

So they can claim being roleblocked again, or have their buddy pretend they got confirmation?

So, if they're town, this is just a strictly good play, since we get a chance to turn a high-sus player into a confirmed town and get free confirmation that you're scummy.
No matter what their alignment is, situation 1 isn't going to happen, since the claim was that we have a town roleblocker, who isn't going to block again.
If their buddy pretends that they get confirmation, we've successfully tied two members of the scumteam together. If we flip you and you flip town, we can then get 2 free mafia annihilations the successive days for the cost of 1 town annihilation.

The problem with this route is it requires assuming scum don't have a roleblocker. It gives scum nomnomnom one more night to use whatever ability he does have. It forces the entire town to play around that possibility when a miller in a game with a one shot cop is scummy.

Second, there's no reason why he couldn't claim miller when he hammered if he knew that shit was scummy. A miller claim deters roleblocks and nightkills as it's rarely combined with something else.

I kind of doubt that both town and scum have a roleblocker (or poogoloo is lying). I mean, since town has a doctor + weak cop + weak roleblocker it's not that unlikely. But if they do have a roleblocker and nomnomnom is town, the only loss is that we miselim tommorrow rather than today. Though the other risk you've pointed out is very real; if nomnomnom is a scum power role then we're giving them another day of power. So if you feel really, really strongly that nomnomnom is scum with a power role, then it does make sense to annihilate them today. So the risk is like this (assuming DGB and nomnomnom are opposite roles)

nomnomnom town -> extra annihilation for today + DGB conf scum + conf town (+++)
nomnomnom town & scum RB -> must annihilate tomorrow instead of today, scum RB must use power on nomnomnom (-+)

1) If nomnomnom is scum, then scum will not pretend to receive the message
nomnomnom scum power -> Scum uses power 1 night and is annihilated a day late (--) nomnomnom scum -> scum annihilated a day late (-)
2) If nomnomnom is scum, then scum will pretend to receive the message, but we get nomnomnom and his buddy after flipping DGB.
nomnomnom scum power -> Scum uses power 2 nights, we miselim on DGB, we get 2 free conf scum. (---++) nomnomnom scum -> Same but scum doesn't get to use their power for 2 nights. (-++)

Generally, nomnomnom being town is very very good, and them being scum is bad but not that bad. Since I'm leaning towards DGB being scum, waiting for more information is the best play. If you think the chance of nomnomnom being scum is

much

more than the chance of DGB being scum, then it makes sense to go for them. But otherwise, no annihilation is the best option.

[Titus]

Combined with follow the cop on a doc flip is sus as fuck.

Why would this happen though? DGB is explicitly a 1 shot cop. It can't happen, even if scum lack a roleblocker.

Replace DGB with another certain player who is being kinda weird and maybe should reread my paragraph. You’re also assuming DGB is one shot. A good strategy for a cop is to lie about being one shot when they aren’t.

My main focus was on you and whatever the modified rolecop thing is you claimed. Murdercat smart play would be to sit on you each night since you claimed cop. Which makes it sus Murdercat is dead.

The modified rolecop thing was a joke and pretty explicitly so. If the mod changes my role pm, I could be anything.

T3 also lies all the time

[Titus]

@T3, I am a modified rolecop too. That means

if the mod modifies my role pm, I am a rolecop.

This is definitely not a cop claim. Lmao.

[MathBlade]

@T3, I am a modified rolecop too. That means

if the mod modifies my role pm, I am a rolecop.

This is definitely not a cop claim. Lmao.

I thought it was serious because theme game. Yay Aspieness.

Still doesn’t explain T3’s informed. Regular cop doesn’t match modified role cop.

[MathBlade]

It’s a pretty weird thing to lie about on d1. I don’t think it would be a lie.

[Xlos]

High level thoughts based on reading so far:
(In order by playlist because mobile please ignore extra symbols hard to remove them on mobile)
Xlos+
>> A(n) in your intro post is arbitrarily defined. I am happy you also share a bachelor’s in math like me. However I am not a fan of your posting. Assume for a moment that the distribution is as suggested and there is a scum in each of the kingdoms. Would we then just arbitrarily eliminate one? Flavor tends to be just flavor if/until demonstrated otherwise.

Initial reads seem to suffer from the too many town reads problem. Overall feels very scummy. Also not a fan of their suggestion from nomnom. I think there’s a major flaw in it and I think saying what is antitown but will do so if prompted.

A(n) is OEIS 2219, I gave it away in 106 but you're likely to miss it if you just reread very quickly.

Since this is MT 2219, it only makes sense to choose a person whose index in the player list is an output of the function a(n), where a(n) is the number of partitions of 2n that can be obtained by adding together two (not necessarily distinct) partitions of n. Of the 3 options, I'll have to
VOTE: Flea The Magician

Most of the reason for the kingdoms post was to get discussion, I wasn't too convinced of the theory myself. ATP we know it's not true since everyone is analysis. But if it were true then it would've been pretty good (imagine that at some point in the game 2/3rds of a kingdom have been annihilated, we now know the last alignment). If you look at the thread at that point of the day, we had been sitting in RVS for a long time and no interesting discussions were going on.

[nomnomnom]

This game is hilariously depressing.
The depressing fact really isn't that I'm gotta get limmed, it really is the scolding I'll receive when I do flip and then I'm going to get blamed for not doing something they deem optimal and get blamed for this loss when this game ends cuz I don't see us recovering after this.
Deadass probably even more depressing than that one micro i lost for town, I guess I'm just bad.
VOTE: nom just hammer me and get this over with.

[Titus]

@T3, I am a modified rolecop too. That means

if the mod modifies my role pm, I am a rolecop.

This is definitely not a cop claim. Lmao.

I thought it was serious because theme game. Yay Aspieness.

Still doesn’t explain T3’s informed. Regular cop doesn’t match modified role cop.

T3 lies in almost all his town games. There likely is no modified rolecop and even if he's not lying, that would be a scum role and not a town role.

[MathBlade]

By the way, anyone who claims a type of Modified Rolecop is confirmed town. This information I have from somewhere that I will not elaborate on furter.

What incentive does a town T3 have to lie about this?
(Yes I see scum incentive while odd I see it)

Can you show me where a town T3 lied in a similar way?
I think it’s too specific to be a lie.

[MathBlade]

That being said I think nom putting themselves at e-1 and not hammering is kinda meant to cut off discussion. I think scum hate what I am doing.

Intent to hammer after lunch