FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Saber]

VLA this weekend, with hopes to be back Monday

[Servant Alter Ego]

Day 1 proper starting on 4th of July weekend might have been a rather unfortunate occurrence.

[Servant Alter Ego]

@Archer/Caster:

Would like to see updated thoughts on the game from you, when you get a chance.

[Servant Alter Ego]

Town: Beast, Alter, Archer, Assassin, Berserker, Shielder(6)


Not sure: Foreigner, Avenger, Rider, Moon cancer. Ruler, Saber, Lancer, Caster (8)

VOTE: Foreigner

Out of thosee names in particular, why Foreigner?

[Servant Archer]

@Archer/Caster:

Would like to see updated thoughts on the game from you, when you get a chance.

I have been out of town the last few days, but I am home now. I will try and get caught back up

[Servant Rider]

I don't understand how some of you develop townreads. I feel like some of you just throw them around like candy. With that said, here are my thoughts on the game after another read through (I also may or may not have almost posted this on the wrong account).

Archer: Probably one of the most influential players regarding the Master selection phase. Quickly joined and left the Saber wagon to explore other options, and in a way that felt fairly townish to me. 95 is a rational thought that makes sense to me, regardless of whether one thought the cop-ability was legit, and he holds firm in 99. 277 is probably the best post from Archer in that I feel like his entire process of selecting someone to receive the Master upgrade was town-motivated. Archer's refusal to take Caster's bet on Berserker's alignment in 295 (although really this is a chain of interactions on Page 12) bodes very well for Archer in hindsight. I don't really feel like talking about this person anymore.

Ruler: While I don't necessarily agree with their conclusions, reading through their posts, the things that concern them are things I feel are more likely to come from someone with a town mindset rather than someone who is trying to fabricate reasons to fit their reads. This person also doesn't seem to like me at the moment, but I don't care as it's not like I've been going out of my way to make myself readable.

Caster: Little concern in 47 where it seems like Caster may or may not have attempted to draw out relative power of players by nudging them towards trying to get a Master. Posting on Page 12 seems fine. Regarding 351, Caster was obviously wrong in hindsight, but I like the thought process presented here and think it's more likely to be town-indicative. Caster and Archer interactions feel very TvT to me and I no longer want to comment on this person. 374 is a good post though.

Beast: He makes strange and off-putting comments. He says Saber seems fine in 80 while already having voted for Saber in 53, which begs the question as to why he joined the wagon in the first place, and if he was having concerns, why not unvote or air them. Early buddying on Lancer in 88. And I find his attitude in 87 slightly off-putting, especially with regards to the aforementioned 53. I can't really tell what the purpose is for their comments against Alter Ego in 113 and 118. Would town care to go through the pains of explaining a null read as Beast does? Or does this make more sense as scum shooting down a potential rival to Saber after Archer mentions Alter Ego as a preference in 84 and 95? The concerns outlined in 118 aren't bad, I just don't understand why he goes through all that and just says 'you're null to me', which is strange considering the strength of his townread on Saber at this point (who to me hadn't done anything particularly worthy of being read as town, at least not to that degree) and the fact they sound like reasons to scumread someone. Actually his approach to AE seems fine. However, at this point in the game, his attitude doesn't match what he claimed to have regarding Shielder being town and 'being disappointed in not having someone to latch onto out of the gate.' I just don't buy it. 281, 282, and 283 is an interesting chain of posts that seem fine at a glance, diving deeper feels mostly like Beast is trying to discredit Archer (whose process up to this point I haven't really had any issue with) in order to support the Saber wagon. Also, in 281, he makes a comment that seems to imply Saber to be a better choice over Berserker, although I don't really see where he would draw this conclusion. Between Beast and Archer, I feel like Beast's approach to the Master upgrade selection process was much more agenda-driven. The reasoning given for supporting Saber in 328 seems pretty weak. 344 is a discredit of Alter Ego which seems to be almost a direct response to Alter Ego voting for Berserker instead of Saber. 361 makes me think there is some sliver that I could be wrong on Beast being scum here, but when compared to the larger picture regarding his actions, I still feel like he had an agenda with regards to the Saber wagon.

Lancer:

I don't really have the same impression that he's super town like some others are claiming. But I also don't really see anything glaring or concerning.

Eh, I can buy 159 being a strong indicator for Lancer being town.

Assassin: 146 is kind of a weird post. Partly in that he could have been appealing to Berserker's 122 about him by saying he'd be fine with a Saber election, and I don't really get why one would think Berserker's thoughts concerning the charismatic town leader would be off-putting (kind of feels a little bit like OMGUS). Actually, reading through 152 gives me the impression Assassin just might not think he could be elected unless he shoots down the charisma argument, and I feel like that's something that could hold true for a player of either alignment. I like 156. I don't really understand 320. A point that favors Assassin's claim for me is that he never used the Miller claim as support (although, obviously, if he were scum and the Miller weren't, he wouldn't be able to continue his cop claim, although I don't remember seeing anyone challenge Assassin directly up to this point for a counter-claim, and Avenger hasn't exactly been doing anything to make me think he's town).

Alter Ego: 155 gives me some town feels. But only because I feel like I can relate to the idea of wanting to go for riskier plays even though it may really bite the collective in the long run if it fails. 244 also gave me some good town feels.

Foreigner: Early play seems town enough. Page 16 bothered me in that I thought it was possible Foreigner was intentionally inflating the post count, although now I just think he was trying to get a page top (and I feel a little silly in thinking one scum would try to burn all our pages by oneself). I have a sneaking suspicion the foreigner schtick may be there to intentionally make their posts harder to parse.

Saber: Aside from an early townread on Ego (which was argued by others that townreads there was questionable anyhow), most or all of early play was mainly campaigning. Maybe I'm wrong on this slot. 235 doesn't make sense to me as a natural train of thought, mainly in that Saber jumped to buddying just because Moon Cancer was scumreading the alternatives. 339 is interesting to me in that Saber says she

wants

to believe Assassin is lying (I'd be thrilled if Assassin were telling the truth, personally, so I don't really get why she'd feel this way if she were town), but I don't really want to argue semantics as it's possible she meant something else entirely.

Moon Cancer: I don't really understand 238 from a town perspective. Thinking too much and too much uncertainty in reads are scum-indicators? The Assassin comment seems to be exactly what Berserker mentioned previously, except Moon Cancer is scumreading Berserker too? Also seemed to be piggybacking off the opinions of Ruler for their reads. Not a huge fan here. Also not sure if there's more to this than what we're seeing.

Avenger: My stance on negative utility roles is very simple. If you're going to claim one, your play better be strongly indicative of you being obvtown or I will do my best to eliminate you.

I see too many times where scum get ignored off a fakeclaim and they get away with basically nothing, which is what Avenger has done thus far. It also doesn't help his case that not only did he claim way later than a claimed cop-like ability, but Assassin also claims his role is incompatible with the Miller claim.

434 shows some promise that Avenger could be town.

I only got to page 23 before losing interest. Didn't really see anything in the last several pages to change any of my reads and am unsure if I'm just being biased now. Don't ask me to do something like this again or finish this. I won't do it.

[Servant Beast]

Well, yeah. I had an agenda. I thought Saber was town and had a powerful ability that would be put to good use. I also could empathize with their approach to trying to get the town master slot.
I don't get why you think people are throwing town reads around like candy. It's more like we just don't really explain ourselves. I do that in part because it can put the scum team off balance (or, I'm just scum and have no reasons, teehee)

Rider's post is interesting but need to think on it a lot more to determine if that's coming from town or scum. I'm allergic to long form, well thought out posts. For example I can't tell if Rider is truly weighing my posts and intentions, or going back and forth and just waiting to see where the wind blows before settling down.

As for foreigner, I've just looked at their posts and I find it odd how evenly distributed their addresses to other players are, the general lack of nuance and a confidence that doesn't make sense to me.

[Servant Beast]

I don't really get the implications toward me and Saber either. Are you saying that I'm scum with Saber and was trying to push his wagon through? That seems unlikely scum rarely have the guts for that.

[Servant Alter Ego]

although, obviously, if he were scum and the Miller weren't, he wouldn't be able to continue his cop claim

I don't understand this reasoning.

[Servant Foreigner]

I will hit on this further later.

later? when?

[Servant Foreigner]

As for foreigner, I've just looked at their posts and I find it odd how evenly distributed their addresses to other players are, the general lack of nuance and a confidence that doesn't make sense to me.

If you are not confident then you won't get analyzable reactions. People are more AI when under pressure.

[Servant Foreigner]

Day 1 proper starting on 4th of July weekend might have been a rather unfortunate occurrence.

don't be shy, you can still make stances, not just questions

[Servant Berserker]

I will hit on this further later.

later? when?

I’ve already brought up that I’m immune to investigations and think that’s weird in conjunction with the claims on the table.

[Servant Foreigner]

i see

[Servant Beast]

I will hit on this further later.

later? when?

I’ve already brought up that I’m immune to investigations and think that’s weird in conjunction with the claims on the table.

It's not that weird, but be careful when making assumptions about balance.
Also scum could have a role cop or something.

[Servant Berserker]

I was expecting a vanilla cop, in all honesty. Games most likely balanced around that role.

[Servant Alter Ego]

Day 1 proper starting on 4th of July weekend might have been a rather unfortunate occurrence.

don't be shy, you can still make stances, not just questions

*shrug* My main stances should be obvious, I want to punt Moon Cancer to the moon. My main townreads are Caster, Lancer, Assassin, and Shielder (I think her reaction to the beast claim was extremely town such that I don't doubt her alignment, regardless of Beast's, although I do lean town on Beast as well). Lesser townreads are Archer, Beast, and you.

Do you have reads besides scumreads on Moon Cancer and Caster?

[Servant Alter Ego]

I suppose it's less obvious, but I'm somewhat concerned that Saber has faded past their initial campaign.

[Servant Foreigner]

i also dont like avenger

[Servant Lancer]

VOTE: Alter Ego
The amount of townreads on this is worrying.

I’m gonna be captain obvious and point out that alter just voted you so this feels a lot like OMGUS

I find it very difficult to believe that a scumread purely predicated on the basis of someone else being townread too much is genuine. (Caster made the same argument about Berserker and his master selection facing no opposition and look how that turned out.) What about alter’s

content

do you scumread?

Alter Ego has been in the bottom of my reads for a very long time. Check my ISO for reason(s).

this is literally the only thing you've said about them:

That is certainly an arrangement of names. Pray tell, why does Rider's 2 posts put them in your 3rd tier?

3rd tier=Null

I see. So you have 5 scumreads and 2 townreads so far, is that correct? That's a very

surprising

distribution. Why am I so scummy to you? Why are Assassin and Berserker scum, too?

Alter Ego thinks too much and their reads have too much

uncertainity

.

either that's a bad reason to scumread someone (in conjunction with "they are too townread") or you need to explain this read way more.

[Servant Lancer]

@Alter how do you feel about Rider?

[Servant Alter Ego]

i also dont like avenger

Oh. Right. My brain had been trying to wipe that part of the game out.

@Alter how do you feel about Rider?

I think they're fine so far and wouldn't want to vote them today. I'm still parsing their wallpost.

[Servant Shielder]

Ruler: While I don't necessarily agree with their conclusions, reading through their posts, the things that concern them are things I feel are more likely to come from someone with a town mindset rather than someone who is trying to fabricate reasons to fit their reads. This person also doesn't seem to like me at the moment, but I don't care as it's not like I've been going out of my way to make myself readable.

I disagree with this. Using alt guesses that can't be properly discussed is a really easy way to discuss reads without being able to go into too much detail. Their reads are also extremely different than the general consensus for certain players (like Beast). This isn't necessarily a problem but someone mentioned that they seem too controversial to be scum and then they suddenly have somewhat opposite reads to the majority.

Day 1 proper starting on 4th of July weekend might have been a rather unfortunate occurrence.

don't be shy, you can still make stances, not just questions

*shrug* My main stances should be obvious, I want to punt Moon Cancer to the moon. My main townreads are Caster, Lancer, Assassin, and Shielder (I think her reaction to the beast claim was extremely town such that I don't doubt her alignment, regardless of Beast's, although I do lean town on Beast as well). Lesser townreads are Archer, Beast, and you.

Do you have reads besides scumreads on Moon Cancer and Caster?

I'm curious why you townlean beast

[Servant Lancer]

I agree with what Shielder said about Ruler. Also, like, isn’t this post from Ruler explicitly violating the warning that Cabd just made about guessing identities?

Spoiler: quote spoilered because long

I do apologize for a reduced presence. I am suffering from some ailment of the mind and require rest to recover.

I can still contribute with this;
VOTE: Servant Foreigner
As previously stated, they are the most corrupt slot in the game with the highest chance of removing corruption from the elimination.

my theory had been that Ruler was seeking to discredit Saber out of fear.

Discrediting would be rather difficult for me to do, given that the act of discrediting is inherently an act of corruption.

Yeah, her simultaneously being aware and unaware of what's going on in recent times seems too convenient for me. Good catch.

While I am aware of this scumtell and am a user of it myself to hunt the corrupt, it is subject to meta of the individual as there are players who display that behavior even when pure of heart. Though I am not certain, my first guess for

Servant Shielder

's identity was that they were among the players to display this behavior regardless of alignment.

Read some ISOs because I'm bored and restless. A bit leery of the scumreads being expressed on Rider. That feels like a slot scum would see as low hanging fruit.

A slot appearing as 'low hanging fruit' does not mean the slot cannot be corrupt. I realize my read on

Servant Rider

is comparatively weak and largely based on process of elimination from the slots I believe are pure of heart, but I do in fact not see goodness within them.

My reads have settled down, except on Beast and Shielder. I am not sure what to make of this claim Day 1.

In a 14-player game with 4 scum, even with the benefits of a conftown D1, double-elimination D1, and the conftown being immune to death prior to N2, I would expect the gathered servants of justice to need considerably more strength than normal. This game is almost a mini but with 4 scum instead of 3.

As such, I buy the claim of the individuals involved being pure of heart. We need every advantage possible to offset the extra corrupt individual. After all, just because we have two possible eliminations on D1 does not mean we hit corrupt individuals. What good does the double-elimination D1 do us if we hit good individuals twice with it? Assuming the corruption's kill goes through, that leaves us on D2 with a 7v4 situation, and potentially 5v4 on D3. Given the delay in activating our noble phantasms, in the worst case scenario, the gathered servants of justice need advantages beyond our ultimate power and the master mechanic.

I’ve been coming around to the thought that Saber might be scum but would appreciate a case from those scumreading them.

My plan is to do this after a

Servant Foreigner

elimination. My first effort is on eliminating the guaranteed corrupt before focusing on the probably corrupt. I do not wish to divide our attention between two different individuals and end up with us eliminating neither.

What is it about this town/game/slot that made you think Rider could be POE-scum and not LHF?

1: What makes you think the ideas of 'poe-scum' and 'player who is LHF' are mutually exclusive? Nothing about those two terms means they cannot overlap; players who are traditionally low-hanging fruit can still end up corrupt.

2: The presence of a rather large number of players who have fairly strong reasons to be pure of heart. If the majority of the gathered servants of justice have good reason to be pure of heart, the chances of those outside the group being corrupt are disproportionately higher.

1) Ruler put rider in her preferred-elim pile as a “throwaway,” claiming that the only elim she actually wants is foreigner’s and rider is just there to fill the spot.

That is correct.

I am aware there are four corrupt slots and I am only truly seeing signs of corruption from three. (

Servants Foreigner, Saber, and Rider

.) Of them, I wished to give some time to further reflect on

Servant Saber

at the time, thus the stated second preference on

Servant Rider

, who I admit is not so much a read I see as corrupt (there are possible signs but they are all weak) so much as a read where I simply do not see anything from them indicating them to be pure of heart.

I am aware this means I am writing off too many players as good. (I shall elaborate on this shortly.)

However, for D1, having too many townreads is better than the inverse, especially with a double-elimination, as I do not think it an issue as long as I have at least two names to eliminate today. Eliminate the players outside the initially-too-wide pure-of-heart player pool today, then reevaluate on D2 to see which of the players I initially placed there to see who does not belong.

I believe it is time for me to give a better separation of my reads:

Above Reproach/Absolutely Pure of Heart

:

Servant Beast*

,

Servant Shielder*

,

Servant Berserker*

Servant Archer:

I am absolutely sure that this is

Servant Archer

as pure of heart. As one of the only servants whose identities I feel fairly confident on, he is one of the few I can back my already-existing pure of heart read on with meta.

Servant Archer

's posts are strongly good, but there are players who can appear that way while corrupt; knowing

Servant Archer

's identity leads me to believe this is beyond the range of their abilities as a corrupt individual and thus, they are my strongest pure of heart read.

*Role-based

Above Reproach

For a Few Phases

/Very Highly Likely Pure of Heart

:

Servants Caster, Lancer:

My feelings on both of these slots is similar. Both are as strongly showing their pure of heartness as

Servant Archer

and the only thing keeping them from joining his ranks is that I know not their identities and it is possible the reasons I am reading them as good are things they are capable of when corrupt. Lacking knowing their identities, they are the strongest possible pure-of-heart read I can have.

Above Reproach

Today

/Highly Likely Pure of Heart

:

Servant Alter Ego:

I almost placed

Servant Alter Ego

in the same tier as

Servants Caster and Lancer

, however, intuition gave me some reserves about them in comparison. Whereas I feel

Servants Caster and Lancer

cannot realistically be corrupt, I could not say the same in my own heart about

Servant Alter Ego

, but I feel bad about this, as

Servant Alter Ego

has been strongly pure of heart in their posting.

Would Prefer not to Eliminate

Today

/Likely Pure of Heart

:

Servant Assassin:

I feel their posting has been reasonably pure of heart, indicating they are more likely good than not, but it is not nearly to the extent of my other reads. They have a few things going for them, but are not the clearly town levels of the above. Their claim could be a gamemaster-provided safeclaim, but I am also inclined to believe the claim.

Servant Moon Cancer:

Though my heart of heart tells me deep in my intuition that they are very strongly pure of heart, I realize I have not much to objectify my read here beyond disagreeing with the strong distaste of the slot. I do not think

Servant Moon Cancer

's contributions indicate they are corrupt, but I have little to substantiate this claim.

???/I Cannot Track

:

Servant Avenger:

Their claim is neither good nor evil to me as I can see either alignment making it. Their contributions have been decent, and I admit that they share many of my takes so unless they are bussing they are less likely to be partnered with those I have fingered as corrupt, but in spite of this, I cannot find myself actually locking them down as pure of heart; I am struggling to read them as anything.

Secondary Elimination Candidates/Decent Chance of Corruption

:

Servants Saber, Rider:

See above sections.

Preferred Primary Elimination/Corrupt to the Core

:

Servant Foreigner:

I will need to explain this read further I imagine, and shall do so when able to.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I'm curious why you townlean beast

I think it would have been a bold play for scum to claim when they did.