MT 2219: The Battle of Calculasia - Endgame

[Xlos]

Math, I want to actually see how your reads reset supposing no one counters DGB.

I want to be able to parse the relationships in detail because there are relationships here.

No one countering DGB isn’t enough for me.

It has to towntell for me to remove it from possibility. In Yellowstone

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12446609

It used the exact same font style. If it quacks like a duck walks like a duck and acts like a duck it’s probably a duck. So the more DGB doesn’t do their town tell the more I think it’s scum.

I also understand it’s unhealthy and depends on Nom being scum.
I also understand that blah blah is bad to say and leads me to think DGB is lying about being a cop but also Nom is probably scum.

So I don’t see the value in prolonging the day when DGB isn’t even trying.

Wait, I thought you were suspicious of nomnomnom. But you're saying if he flips guilty, then you suspect DBG. Do you actually think that both nomnomnom and DGB are scum? The earlier interaction just doesn't make any sense in that situation. Basically it means scum looked at D2 and said "I think we should make one of us die today, and we should do it by faking these improbable roles"

[MathBlade]

Yes. That’s the world I am in yes. If you look at the game linked Yellowstone DGB did the exact same thing with AGamblingPig.
If you look at the second link, with DGB and Muffin DGB said they investigated Muffin and then muffin coasted to end game.

That’s always been my point and I think DGB is a liar. Nom’s is implausible and so is DGB if we take T3 at face value and I think we should.

[Ircher]

Day 2 VC #6

DrippingGoofball (0):
Xlos (1): WhemeStar (654)
Jake the Wolfie (1): Almost50 (470)
MathBlade (1): Galron (724)
Titus (0):

nomnomnom (4) (F-2): DrippingGoofball (466), Titus (661), Toogeloo (670), T3 (671)

Not Voting (4): MathBlade, Xlos (655), Jake the Wolfie (665), nomnomnom (718)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to fade a player.

Deadlines

This phase will end no earlier than Friday, July 2, 2021 9:45:00 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-02 21:45:00).
This phase will end no later than Sunday, July 11, 2021 9:45 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-11 21:45:00).

Moderator Notes

1: If you have regular weekend V/LA, please inform me each week.
2: Please let me know if you have a different pronoun preference than listed below.

Pronoun Key

1: DrippingGoofball : It
3: Xlos : He/him
4: Almost50 : He/him
5: Jake the Wolfie : Any
6: Galron : He/him
7: theslimer3 : They/them
8: T3 : He/him
9: Titus : She/her
10: WhemeStar : He/him
12: Toogeloo : They/them
13: nomnomnom : He/him

[Titus]

This discussion is why I didn't want to end the day.

I don't think Math is scum but I think this discussion is worthwhile. I think this alternative thinking is town Math. The only thing that worries me is the insistence on both being scum. He could be right, but it also keeps DGB in the elimination pool if nomnomnom flips scum.

DGB nom Math (A possible scumteam but unlikely as Math wouldn't highlight this)
DGB nom Xias/galron
DGB toog

nom toog
nom xios galron

I want to narrow down which is more likely.

[Titus]

Yes. That’s the world I am in yes. If you look at the game linked Yellowstone DGB did the exact same thing with AGamblingPig.
If you look at the second link, with DGB and Muffin DGB said they investigated Muffin and then muffin coasted to end game.

That’s always been my point and I think DGB is a liar. Nom’s is implausible and so is DGB if we take T3 at face value and I think we should.

Do you think that I'm wrong about T3?

If I'm right about T3, do you agree that DGB's claim looks more plausible?

What incentive is there to fake a guilty at the start of day 2 as scum?

If DGB and nomnomnom are scum together, then the last partner would want to FoS Mathblade here.

I find that Xios position that one must be town here works perfectly with Math's theory... as in Xios would be scum in that world.

I also find it convenient to say one must be town because it gives Xios a perfect position if both are town.

TLDR, if DGB and Nom share an alignment, Xios is more likely scum.

[MathBlade]

+1 again I approve I just don’t know where to go from here until we know if my basis for thought (Nom being scum) is accurate.
DGB is of no help just screaming guilty and not actually hunting/trying to find anyone that could be linked with nom. It then just spouts me because I distrust it. It’s a lazy answer. It also suspects Toog of being scum because of setup spec.

A lot of today just seems lazy and spoon fed. I wish we had multiple elims in a single day to sort it but I kinda wonder about taking what’s given or if there is fuckery.

Looking at all the claims here and assuming they are town

T3 informed rolecop (very likely true you’re probably not going to convince me otherwise)
DGB 1 shot alignment cop who checked nom
Nom blocked friendly neighbor with something to do with prime numbers (I don’t follow tbh)
Toog said they blocked Nom
Murdercat dead Ungated doctor
Someone claimed neighbor accidentally (leaving this vague so scum don’t catch on)

The simplest scenario to analyze is Toog and Noom
SvS >> Unlikely as if we don’t elim Noom today then Noom is forced to neighbor someone and can’t. Then Toog is hella suspicious. Ergo no scum benefit to claiming the block

Noom scum Toog town >> Most likely
Noom town Toog town >> Possible here but I find it unlikely unless DGB faked the guilty which it wouldn’t like me poking at it. I find this scenario unlikely as it would require scum!DGB to have been lying about the guilty or a town DGB sort of manipulation (redirector bus driver framer etc) in play.
Noom town Toog scum >> Possible but unlikely. Toog would then have to out when he uses his second block and against this PR list that seems a bit weak.

So most likely is Noom scum Toog town.

So then if Toog is town and two shot RB and a doctor exists how does this work with town!DGB Titus?
Even if I still take away the rolecop which I am pretty sure exists then what?
Pedit:
I strongly suspect T3 is town and truthtelling. Call it gut if you wish.

[Almost50]

so I am actually curious about your thought process

I don't have one
At least nothing solid. I just think that unless richer decided to tailor a ridiculously overpowered role for you (that doesn't match what seems to be a sea of weak powers) I don't see how you "guessed" you were both blocked and investigated so you can tailor a fake claim accordingly.

I also don't see the point for scum!you to make that fuss about ending the day on a prime number on day one when you could've went subtle about it or never even mentioned it.

Now am confident of anything at all? Nope. And it shows in my analysis for why your flip doesn't give us much regardless of your alignment.

[MathBlade]

If we take out T3’s claim for shits and giggles then you still have a neighbor a full doc a two shot roleblock and a 1 shot alignment cop. It’s still pretty sus. It’s more possible yes but I really really think T3 truth and town told

[Titus]

The full doctor is the one that stands out and we know that's town

Question: Who claimed neighbor?

[Titus]

@DGB, I think Math is the townbeard here but I'm open to being wrong. The steadfast refusal to consider other opinions is NAI.

[MathBlade]

In Yellowstone I don’t remember if it was at the start of the day but it’s about planning and positioning.

A smart cop claim waits and sees what their guilty will spew see about getting another. You saw this when I got a “guilty” in that one game where it wasn’t actually a guilty because of reasons and we properly elimmed you instead in a game you called “not mafia”.

I just don’t see evidence of it trying to hunt here.

Pedit: I kinda don’t want to say who unless I have to.
There’s enough directly open anyway I guess the risk is minimal

[MathBlade]

Currently: Bad reaction to my initial push on him.

My initial push was based on my theory of there being 1 Scum in the 1st 3 posters in any given Mafia game (backed up by examples in post 153), but I neither explained nor did I actually FoS anyone in particular at the beginning. I just said nom was less likely to be it. MC used my mistake (of counting the Co-mod in my 3 first posters list) and voted me for it. I thought that made him more likely scum than the other two and voted him and only then did I explain my theory. MC then doubled down claiming my theory was an easy way to fake reads, although that wasn't why he voted e at first.

If anything AT ALL I believe I did move the game out of RVS with that post (which was one of my main objectives of posting it). I guess now is the time I should note that I am a Neighbor and that my Neighbor knows this because I had asked them to ask me why those 3 if they were online, but nom did it first anyway. I told my Neighbor specifically that them engaging me on this one should move the game out of RVS, so -at least- I did that regardless of whether my read on MC is correct.

I guess if I can see it scum can.

[Almost50]

@titus: I think toog is more likely town here. My proposition to noom that toog could still be scum was a theoretical argument to show that mom's flip doesn't give us any solid info

@math: I claimed neighbour early day one. I have yet to out my neighbour though, but I feel that I should elaborate on my own role (to give those who like to nod spec something to chew on)

I am an Informed Neighbour, but my information is useless thus far (I am told about another player's flavour). Obviously out good has only two members. The hood has very few posts .. not even 15 iirc. My neighbor told me to wait for them to obv!town and so far I don't see anyone obv!downing tbh.. not even I

[Almost50]

Post 175 was where I outed I was a neighbour (but said nothing more). Sorry the post is too long and I can't highlight a specific part (I would have to manually delete irrelevant content using the back space button)

[Almost50]

Great! So I typed all that for nothing as math had already found my initial claim.

That now proves Titus doesn't read (not my day 1 claim and not my day 2 mention of it). Funnily enough I think it indicative of her town game as she would be looking for crumbs and hints as scum I think.

[Jake The Wolfie]

Is today the day where we massclaim D2 for legitimately no reason?! What the fuck.

[MathBlade]

This was all claimed before I posted Jake.

It’s partially why I have a problem believing DGB here.

There’s nothing new in the way of claims here.

A one shot cop claim is absolutely perfect for sneaking by and not being checked and willing to sacrifice one of their own so DGB goes deep.

[WhemeStar]

Can people explain why they townread xios

[DrippingGoofball]

@DGB, I think Math is the townbeard here but I'm open to being wrong. The steadfast refusal to consider other opinions is NAI.

Alright.

What puzzles me the most is that in the event that I am claiming a guilty on a buddy which I have done in the past, why would my buddy nomnom in this hypothetical scenario claim miller?

Does it not make more sense that nom fabricated a miller claim on day 2 when he sensed i must have had a guilty?

[DrippingGoofball]

Is today the day where we massclaim D2 for legitimately no reason?! What the fuck.

Neighbor claims are NAI so why not?

[DrippingGoofball]

This was all claimed before I posted Jake.

It’s partially why I have a problem believing DGB here.

There’s nothing new in the way of claims here.

A one shot cop claim is absolutely perfect for sneaking by and not being checked and willing to sacrifice one of their own so DGB goes deep.

The player i sacrificed was a lurking newbie who was more useful dead than alive.

[Almost50]

I thought someone said the mod hinted flavour claiming may have bad consequences, but rereading the rules he only sai scum have additional fake claims.

I am thinking we should all flavour claim as it won't hurt

I'll even go first: Ratio Test. I crumbed it in my first post iirc. Just copy and paste the nonsense I typed there about clocks all set to a specific time and Google it

[MathBlade]

I don’t know about that a50 I am kinda torn on if we all mass claimed or not. But at the same time I think flavor may be role indicative.
I would much rather hold off as long possible before more claims.

Wheme I don’t townread them except for a tiny townping i just sorta have other people in my PoE that are more likely scum.

[MathBlade]

This was all claimed before I posted Jake.

It’s partially why I have a problem believing DGB here.

There’s nothing new in the way of claims here.

A one shot cop claim is absolutely perfect for sneaking by and not being checked and willing to sacrifice one of their own so DGB goes deep.

The player i sacrificed was a lurking newbie who was more useful dead than alive.

Nom could have used a one shot ability and was actually blocked and is more useful for towncred at this point. I find it hard to believe scum don’t have full powers though. We really need a scum flip.

[DrippingGoofball]

MathBlade you are ignoring my request to explain how nom claiming miller on day 2 when I obv'd a guilty result fit with the alignments you are suggesting.