Newbie 2072: All Guns Blazing!! - Ended

[Val89]

All,

I've played with some of you before, and I'm glad to see all two of you back for more. For those of you don't know me, allow me to introduce myself - my name is Val89, and I'm known for opening my games by posting what appears on it's surface to be a load of crap and can't possibly be alignment indicative, but actually completely deduces the scum team in my first post. If you don't beleive me, allow me to refer you to the game in question. Yes, a sample size of one, but that is 100% of the games I've played that aren't ongoing and thus fair game for discussion. Not bad odds, I am sure you will agree.

So, I have to say my attention has been immeadately drawn by not_mafia: Clearly, if we consider only alignment at this stage, ignoring the possibility of a serious mod error, there are only 2 possiblities: Not Mafia is mafia, or Not Mafia is not mafia.

There are 9 players in the setup, of which 2 are mafia. That makes the probablity of case A, that Not Mafia is Mafia, as 2/9ths; and conversely, case B, that Not Mafia is not mafia as 7/9s.

Let's now consider another Non-Not Mafia player from the list, lets say, for sake of example, Lukewarm. The same possibities apply - either Lukewarm is mafia, or Lukewarm is not mafia. But Lukewarm is not Not Mafia, because that would be against the site rules precluding playing in the same game under two different names, so Lukewarm HAS to mafia. This logic can be applied to any other player you substitue for Lukewarm, with the sole exception of Not Mafia, meaning that 8 out of 9 players in the game would have to be mafia. Clearly, this is a contridiction, and so our initial assumption is wrong.

If you instead consider the alternative posibilities that either Not Mafia is mafia, or that Not Mafia is not not mafia, then we resolve our contridication. While this doesn't give us any clues as to any of the other playerbase, returning to our example, Lukewarm being not mafia is fine, if not mafia is not Not Mafia. Thus, either Not Mafia is mafia, or Not Mafia is not Not Mafia, and since Not Mafia CLEARY IS Not Mafia, then Not Mafia is mafia. Easy

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Pavowski]

I read that as a scum team accusation

Me too

In terms of Not_Mafia, then, maybe should we do the whole intent-to-hammer+claim shebang at E-2 instead of E-1 then...? More like an "intent to E-1"?

Intent to declare intent of declaration to intend

[Val89]

Sorry, I forgot to add the link to the game before I hit submit. If you want to verify my claims to 100% first post scum deduction accuracy, the relevant post is here.

[Zyla]

Yeah, Val's first post tracks

[Pavowski]

All,

I've played with some of you before, and I'm glad to see all two of you back for more. For those of you don't know me, allow me to introduce myself - my name is Val89, and I'm known for opening my games by posting what appears on it's surface to be a load of crap and can't possibly be alignment indicative, but actually completely deduces the scum team in my first post. If you don't beleive me, allow me to refer you to the game in question. Yes, a sample size of one, but that is 100% of the games I've played that aren't ongoing and thus fair game for discussion. Not bad odds, I am sure you will agree.

So, I have to say my attention has been immeadately drawn by not_mafia: Clearly, if we consider only alignment at this stage, ignoring the possibility of a serious mod error, there are only 2 possiblities: Not Mafia is mafia, or Not Mafia is not mafia.

There are 9 players in the setup, of which 2 are mafia. That makes the probablity of case A, that Not Mafia is Mafia, as 2/9ths; and conversely, case B, that Not Mafia is not mafia as 7/9s.

Let's now consider another Non-Not Mafia player from the list, lets say, for sake of example, Lukewarm. The same possibities apply - either Lukewarm is mafia, or Lukewarm is not mafia. But Lukewarm is not Not Mafia, because that would be against the site rules precluding playing in the same game under two different names, so Lukewarm HAS to mafia. This logic can be applied to any other player you substitue for Lukewarm, with the sole exception of Not Mafia, meaning that 8 out of 9 players in the game would have to be mafia. Clearly, this is a contridiction, and so our initial assumption is wrong.

If you instead consider the alternative posibilities that either Not Mafia is mafia, or that Not Mafia is not not mafia, then we resolve our contridication. While this doesn't give us any clues as to any of the other playerbase, returning to our example, Lukewarm being not mafia is fine, if not mafia is not Not Mafia. Thus, either Not Mafia is mafia, or Not Mafia is not Not Mafia, and since Not Mafia CLEARY IS Not Mafia, then Not Mafia is mafia. Easy

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Your logic is good, but have you considered the possibility that Not_Mafia is not(not[not mafia])?

I need an aspirin

[Not_Mafia]

I read that as a scum team accusation

Me too

In terms of Not_Mafia, then, maybe should we do the whole intent-to-hammer+claim shebang at E-2 instead of E-1 then...? More like an "intent to E-1"?

This is known as "NM-1", but I don't quickhammer in Newbies

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: Val

Just went and read that post in their first game, and this is not anything like it.

In their other game, they opened up with a scum case, that because it was on page 2 of the thread, was clearly pretty weak. But, they came at it like a scum case none the less. They are trying to catch a lie and talking about word choice being indicative of alignment.

When questioned about their first post they said:

My reason for dressing up an RVS vote in the amount of verbiage I did was to make sure there was at least something substantial to discuss

Now compare that to this one, where their first post basically boiled down to "Not_Mafia's name is Not_Mafia" -- what thing of substance did they bring to this game?

[Lukewarm]

Page 2 Hero Solve [Val89, alstroemerial]

[Val89]

what thing of substance did they bring to this game?

Post 25 is the thing of substance, obviously. It doesn't matter if you think the logic can be reduced to "Not_Mafia's name is Not_Mafia"; I don't agree that's a fair summation of the argument, and tells me you haven't engaged fully with it, by the way; but the argument itself isn't the substance Im hoping to draw - I hope simply that someone takes it as a serious indication of somebodies alignment - either the person I direct the post at, or myself, and that the following discussion is of substance, rather than the usuall RVS crap we throw around for a few pages.

And Lo and behold, it has acheived just that. Look who immeadatlety jumps to Not_Mafia's defense, and with a vote no less. I imagine you noticed in that previous game it was the 'target' of the post who came in and tried to defend as if it were a serious scum case, but hell, I will take their scum partner doing so on their behalf. In fact, it's preferable, given that we now only need to chose who to lim first - Not_Mafia, or Lukewarm.

Even if the remaining scum gets a kill off tonight, that still leaves 6 town versus the one we chose to leave alive today, and that's got to be a town victory, so I don't really suspose it matters. I'll leave my vote where it is for now as a result, but I am open to moving it to Lukewarm if others have an argument as to why that might be the preferable order for the lims.

[marcistar]

I read that as a scum team accusation

Me too

yeah it was a scum team accusation
- -
so far i think alstroemerial is a bit townie, (23 is just a town mindset i think.)

VOTE: Val

Just went and read that post in their first game, and this is not anything like it.

In their other game, they opened up with a scum case, that because it was on page 2 of the thread, was clearly pretty weak. But, they came at it like a scum case none the less. They are trying to catch a lie and talking about word choice being indicative of alignment.

When questioned about their first post they said:

My reason for dressing up an RVS vote in the amount of verbiage I did was to make sure there was at least something substantial to discuss

Now compare that to this one, where their first post basically boiled down to "Not_Mafia's name is Not_Mafia" -- what thing of substance did they bring to this game?

i just read the post he linked, and tbh i think ur reading a bit too deep into it. the posts give off same vibes, which would be hard to fake.

dont have other thoughts so far, i was gonna say val89s a bit confusing but that just boils down to me being a bit of a dumbie

[Umlaut]

Hi, haven't read anything and not going to for a while but

VOTE: Not_Mafia

on general principle.

[Lukewarm]

It doesn't matter if you think the logic can be reduced to "Not_Mafia's name is Not_Mafia"; I don't agree that's a fair summation of the argument, and tells me you haven't engaged fully with it, by the way

If you take post 25, and replace Not_Mafia's name with any other name - would the argument mean anything? No, because your argument relies solely on the name of his account.

Also, the logic you applied, would that not stand true in literally every Newbie game that Not_Mafia plays?

And if it does apply to every single game he plays in, then clearly it is not actually of any substance.

[Val89]

Does that mean you are satisfied with your vote, Lukewarm?

[Lukewarm]

And Lo and behold, it has acheived just that. Look who immeadatlety jumps to Not_Mafia's defense, and with a vote no less. I imagine you noticed in that previous game it was the 'target' of the post who came in and tried to defend as if it were a serious scum case, but hell, I will take their scum partner doing so on their behalf. In fact, it's preferable, given that we now only need to chose who to lim first - Not_Mafia, or Lukewarm.

Are you saying that the townie thing to do in this scenario, is to completely ignore you?

Spoiler:

(also, I did not notice any thing about your target, I only looked at like the first 4ish posts in your iso)

I do find it strange that you jumped to the conclusion that I am defending Not Mafia. In what world, would I need to defend Not_Mafia from the post you made?

Does it not make more sense that I am trying to figure you out? I saw you make a post, claim that that post was town indicative for you, and you even linked to a prior game to support it -- so I followed up.

[Lukewarm]

Does that mean you are satisfied with your vote, Lukewarm?

i am satisfied enough for Page 2 -- you are the most interesting thing that has happened so far this game

[Lukewarm]

so far i think alstroemerial is a bit townie, (23 is just a town mindset i think.)

This is interesting. That was the very post that led me to vote for them.

They had made 4 posts (at the time, was one of the most posts) -- and none of them were about the game.

-RVS vote
-Explained that RVS vote was because of the alphabet
-Talking about WotM
-Talking about Not_Mafia's voting habits

It was starting to feel like someone who felt like they should be posting, but was nervous about jumping in --- which can describe new!Scum

[Val89]

(also, I did not notice any thing about your target, I only looked at like the first 4ish posts in your iso)

You what? What sort of mafia player tries to make push a meta read on someone without having first actually read the ISO. I know it can vary from game to game, but you do know the first 4ish post puts us firmly in RVS territory, right? Of course you do - I'll tell you what sort of mafia player does this; scum, trying to pick up some easy towncred for indicating they have gone to the effort to do a metadive. It might have worked too if you hadn't been silly enough to admit this.

Of course, admitting that you are splashing out a meta read without having read more than 4ish posts is almost too scummy to actually be scum, that I actually think that's what you want us to assume - that you have to be town. Hiding that behind a spolier tag indicates to me you might have known that, and I have to say, engaging in WIFOM this early in the thread does nothing to convince me I am on the wrong track, here, Lukewarm.

In any case, it's your scumbuddy who is sat at E-2 right now, so I am interesting it watching if they try and distance themselves from you, or if they elect to just completely ignore the fact you are being read as Not_Mafia's scummybuddy, not mention it, and hope we don't notice.

[alstroemerial]

what thing of substance did they bring to this game?

Val was one of the more substantive posters in 2068

[Lukewarm]

Ah yes, why would I ever try to compare how you are engaging with the thread right now, to how you were engaging with the thread of that game during RVS?

-- This is indeed a quite mysterious question

[Val89]

Val was one of the more substantive posters in 2068

I think you might have misunderstood Lukewarm. I am he will correct me if I am wrong, but he was trying to suggest that I have posted nothing of substance to THIS game thus far, not that I posted nothing of substance in 2068.

I'll let you read my ISO and decide if you come to the same conclusion. Personally, I think it's self evident that having deduced both scum partners by midway through Page 2 would count as something of substance, but to be fair to him, I didn't deduce him as the scum buddy until AFTER his 31.

I still think since Not_Mafia is at E-2, we should just go ahead and make him the lim for the day rather than piviot to Lukewarm, though. We can deal with him tomorrow.

[Lukewarm]

Val, you have interesting opinions of what a town player would do in a game vs what a scum player would do in a game

[Zyla]

Maybe so, but he's certainly started a discussion. And one of the main things you'll find if you search for "what to do day 1" is to try and split the room and see *how* people take sides so that you can see if they take sides the same way with more "important" discussion later on

[Lukewarm]

I still think since Not_Mafia is at E-2, we should just go ahead and make him the lim for the day rather than piviot to Lukewarm, though. We can deal with him tomorrow.

This is probably the scummiest sentence I have read.

The idea that any town player would already be ready to decide who should be the Day 1 elim on page 2 baffles me

Not_Mafia is only at E-2, because he is voting for himself right now lol

[Lukewarm]

Hi, haven't read anything and not going to for a while but

VOTE: Not_Mafia

And another one of the votes on him comes from someone who has not read the game yet

[Lukewarm]

You positioning as if Not_Mafia being the day 1 elimination is already a forgone conclusion is odd.