Newbie 2072: All Guns Blazing!! - Ended

[marcistar]

so far i think alstroemerial is a bit townie, (23 is just a town mindset i think.)

This is interesting. That was the very post that led me to vote for them.

They had made 4 posts (at the time, was one of the most posts) -- and none of them were about the game.

-RVS vote
-Explained that RVS vote was because of the alphabet
-Talking about WotM
-Talking about Not_Mafia's voting habits

It was starting to feel like someone who felt like they should be posting, but was nervous about jumping in --- which can describe new!Scum

sure it could describe newbie scum, but it could also describe newbie town just as well. those were p1 posts, i dont think its really weird for posts on p1 to seem that way.

I still think since Not_Mafia is at E-2, we should just go ahead and make him the lim for the day rather than piviot to Lukewarm, though. We can deal with him tomorrow.

agree with u luke, this seems pretty weird.

[Lukewarm]

Val was one of the more substantive posters in 2068

I think you might have misunderstood Lukewarm. I am he will correct me if I am wrong, but he was trying to suggest that I have posted nothing of substance to THIS game thus far, not that I posted nothing of substance in 2068.

Indeed. My original point was that Val's first post in 2068 had substance -- and they even said later that they purposefully chose to include substance in their RVS vote -- but Val's first post in 2072 does not have that same substance.

[Not_Mafia]

All,

I've played with some of you before, and I'm glad to see all two of you back for more. For those of you don't know me, allow me to introduce myself - my name is Val89, and I'm known for opening my games by posting what appears on it's surface to be a load of crap and can't possibly be alignment indicative, but actually completely deduces the scum team in my first post. If you don't beleive me, allow me to refer you to the game in question. Yes, a sample size of one, but that is 100% of the games I've played that aren't ongoing and thus fair game for discussion. Not bad odds, I am sure you will agree.

So, I have to say my attention has been immeadately drawn by not_mafia: Clearly, if we consider only alignment at this stage, ignoring the possibility of a serious mod error, there are only 2 possiblities: Not Mafia is mafia, or Not Mafia is not mafia.

There are 9 players in the setup, of which 2 are mafia. That makes the probablity of case A, that Not Mafia is Mafia, as 2/9ths; and conversely, case B, that Not Mafia is not mafia as 7/9s.

Let's now consider another Non-Not Mafia player from the list, lets say, for sake of example, Lukewarm. The same possibities apply - either Lukewarm is mafia, or Lukewarm is not mafia. But Lukewarm is not Not Mafia, because that would be against the site rules precluding playing in the same game under two different names, so Lukewarm HAS to mafia. This logic can be applied to any other player you substitue for Lukewarm, with the sole exception of Not Mafia, meaning that 8 out of 9 players in the game would have to be mafia. Clearly, this is a contridiction, and so our initial assumption is wrong.

If you instead consider the alternative posibilities that either Not Mafia is mafia, or that Not Mafia is not not mafia, then we resolve our contridication. While this doesn't give us any clues as to any of the other playerbase, returning to our example, Lukewarm being not mafia is fine, if not mafia is not Not Mafia. Thus, either Not Mafia is mafia, or Not Mafia is not Not Mafia, and since Not Mafia CLEARY IS Not Mafia, then Not Mafia is mafia. Easy

VOTE: Not_Mafia

This logic is impeccable, I surrender

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Not_Mafia]

It doesn't matter if you think the logic can be reduced to "Not_Mafia's name is Not_Mafia"; I don't agree that's a fair summation of the argument, and tells me you haven't engaged fully with it, by the way

If you take post 25, and replace Not_Mafia's name with any other name - would the argument mean anything? No, because your argument relies solely on the name of his account.

Also, the logic you applied, would that not stand true in literally every Newbie game that Not_Mafia plays?

And if it does apply to every single game he plays in, then clearly it is not actually of any substance.

Tbf I'm scum even when I'm town

[Lukewarm]

sure it could describe newbie scum, but it could also describe newbie town just as well. those were p1 posts, i dont think its really weird for posts on p1 to seem that way.

Possibly -- When I voted them, I mainly wanted to see how they were going to react to me voting them / saying that they had not really engaged with the game at all -- but then I got side tracked with Val

[Not_Mafia]

Hi, haven't read anything and not going to for a while but

VOTE: Not_Mafia

on general principle.

Why are you voting on policy and refusing to scumhunt and actually play the game?

VOTE: Umlaut

On general principle

[Val89]

The idea that any town player would already be ready to decide who should be the Day 1 elim on page 2 baffles me

If you try and read my confident conclusion through the lens of a newbie player who has 100% accuracy at deducing scum post-1, that it might help unbaffle you.

Of course, if it turns out I am wrong this time, then I might just have to face up to the fact that my post-1 reads may be NAI, but until I see the flip, I won't know that, will I?

As you will see if you read further into 2068, I eventually decided someone else was acting more scummy than my post-1 pick, and moved my vote to them. The person I ended up scumreading ended up being a town PR, so in hindsight, it turns out I should have just stuck to my guns on that first post-1 read. Stands to reason I will take that experience into my future games, no?

[Zyla]

The idea that any town player would already be ready to decide who should be the Day 1 elim on page 2 baffles me

If you try and read my confident conclusion through the lens of a newbie player who has 100% accuracy at deducing scum post-1, that it might help unbaffle you.

Of course, if it turns out I am wrong this time, then I might just have to face up to the fact that my post-1 reads may be NAI, but until I see the flip, I won't know that, will I?

As you will see if you read further into 2068, I eventually decided someone else was acting more scummy than my post-1 pick, and moved my vote to them. The person I ended up scumreading ended up being a town PR, so in hindsight, it turns out I should have just stuck to my guns on that first post-1 read. Stands to reason I will take that experience into my future games, no?

7for7 is probably not the best way to play tbh

[Lukewarm]

Maybe Val is just strange.

VOTE: alstroemerial[/unvote]

I saw 42 - do you have any thoughts about this game?

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: alstroemerial

Spoiler:

That will teach me to manually type the tag instead of hitting the button x.x

[Val89]

7for7 is probably not the best way to play tbh

Oh, I agree completely, but 1for1 might well be reasonable, at least for the first couple of pages. I'll be sure to let you know if anything else pings my radar. I'm not adverse to adjusting my reads, particulary such early ones, if there is a reason to do so.

By the way, does anyone else have an opinion if Zyla's post counts as a potential Buzzword scumtell?

[Not_Mafia]

By the way, does anyone else have an opinion if Zyla's post counts as a potential Buzzword scumtell?

The irony

[Zyla]

Maybe Val is just strange.

Aren't all the best people?

Also, you only need to put 'v' or 'uv' inside the square brackets, personally I find that much easier than locating the button


Pedit: I dunno, you just through out a buzzword yourself... /jk
Honestly though, I think that's the only serious post of mine that's really "buzzy"

[Lukewarm]

By the way, does anyone else have an opinion if Zyla's post counts as a potential Buzzword scumtell?

From what I can see, the 7for7 is the only one she has used, so I think it is too early to say that -- and now that you have pointed it out, it will likely never be useful to sort her.

However, I am pretty confident in my ability to have a solid read on her by the end of Day 1 -- I will keep you posted

[Zyla]

By the way, does anyone else have an opinion if Zyla's post counts as a potential Buzzword scumtell?

From what I can see, the 7for7 is the only one she has used, so I think it is too early to say that -- and now that you have pointed it out, it will likely never be useful to sort her.

However, I am pretty confident in my ability to have a solid read on her by the end of Day 1 -- I will keep you posted

I on the other hand am confident that I need to look over Luke's posts 5 times, never trust a gut read, and at least take into consideration anything everyone else says about him. (Yes, I should be doing that with everyone, but still)

[Val89]

However, I am pretty confident in my ability to have a solid read on her by the end of Day 1 -- I will keep you posted

Interesting. Is that because you've played with her before, and have managed to correctly read her by the end of Day 1 in the past?

[Zyla]

He correctly read me as scum in Newbie 2065 and easily pocketed me in 2067, yeah

[Lukewarm]

However, I am pretty confident in my ability to have a solid read on her by the end of Day 1 -- I will keep you posted

Interesting. Is that because you've played with her before, and have managed to correctly read her by the end of Day 1 in the past?

I have played 2 games with Zyla so far.

In our first game, she was scum, I was suspicious of pretty early in Day 1, then lead her elim Day 2.

In our second game, she was town, and I could see a distinct difference in how she played compared to the first (Although, I was scum that game)

[Pavowski]

7for7 is probably not the best way to play tbh

Oh, I agree completely, but 1for1 might well be reasonable, at least for the first couple of pages. I'll be sure to let you know if anything else pings my radar. I'm not adverse to adjusting my reads, particulary such early ones, if there is a reason to do so.

By the way, does anyone else have an opinion if Zyla's post counts as a potential Buzzword scumtell?

It's weird but I dunno if it's scummy. Does 7for7 count as a buzzword? It's a pretty odd reference to make, especially about Val's ... 1 for 1 claim?

For that matter, does "buzzword" count as a buzzword?

[Zyla]

According to the article, yes

But also, the 7for7 was partially referencing the fact that there was a 0for0 claim that someone made in our previous game about how they never lost a particular type of game (but failed to mention it wasn't one they'd ever played)

[Pavowski]

I still think since Not_Mafia is at E-2, we should just go ahead and make him the lim for the day rather than piviot to Lukewarm, though. We can deal with him tomorrow.

This is probably the scummiest sentence I have read.

The idea that any town player would already be ready to decide who should be the Day 1 elim on page 2 baffles me

Not_Mafia is only at E-2, because he is voting for himself right now lol

What, even, is this interaction, coming on page 2, before the game is even three hours old?

Do we really think Val intends to elim Not_Mafia at this point in the game?

[Not_Mafia]

If I were voting seriously at this point, I'd be voting Lukewarm

[Lukewarm]

If I were voting seriously at this point, I'd be voting Lukewarm

[alstroemerial]

Of course, the game picks up as soon as I step away from my computer... Anyway...

I still think since Not_Mafia is at E-2, we should just go ahead and make him the lim for the day rather than piviot to Lukewarm, though. We can deal with him tomorrow.

Even though my play with Val sample size is one (or rather, playing with anyone), this does seem very uncharacteristic. Val last time was self-admittedly really loquacious and consequently a little bit more indecisive. Even before putting his first serious vote on, he really thought it through with a longer post and reasoning instead of just, "welp."

Regarding Val's super long post about Not_Mafia, I interpreted it as a complete joke because nobody should be using that sort of logic seriously, and Val doesn't seem like the type. As a result, Luke's response threw me off a bit because it seemed to be taking it completely at face value. So I wasn't sure if Luke was, like, playing along, or...? Similarly in terms of 40, I'm like, uh, not everyone had posted yet and it was the first page? So I wasn't sure if it was serious or not. I mean, if it was, what I'll say is I was holding myself back from over-posting because I didn't want to monopolize the thread when not everyone had even confirmed yet.

sure it could describe newbie scum, but it could also describe newbie town just as well. those were p1 posts, i dont think its really weird for posts on p1 to seem that way.

Possibly -- When I voted them, I mainly wanted to see how they were going to react to me voting them / saying that they had not really engaged with the game at all -- but then I got side tracked with Val

Come back to me, I want to play with the famous "rising star", as I read someone call you on another thread.

Maybe Val is just strange.

VOTE: alstroemerial[/unvote]

I saw 42 - do you have any thoughts about this game?

Ah here we go -- I have my eye on Zyla a bit already because [ongoing games] but it's more of a lean than a read at this point. My other thought is that I want to keep Not_Mafia around for at least a while because taking him out immediately just because he has a certain... history seems like a recipe for an easy miselim. So I don't love how fast that turned into a wagon, but again, I feel like we're still in a zone where the line between jokes and serious is thin. Jumping on him just because playing with him can be troublesome is too similar to my mistake in 2068 with GrandpaMo. That's one lesson I'm trying to take with me.

What, even, is this interaction, coming on page 2, before the game is even three hours old?

Do we really think Val intends to elim Not_Mafia at this point in the game?

^ A more concise version of what I was trying to get at earlier in this post

[Val89]

Even before putting his first serious vote on, he really thought it through with a longer post and reasoning instead of just, "welp."

Unless I have reason to differ, I imagine you can expect the same in this game, too.

I have my eye on Zyla a bit already because [ongoing games] but it's more of a lean than a read at this point.

In which direction is that lean? I am reading 'having your eye on' as 'scumlean', but I just want to clarify because that could potentially be taken in either direction.