FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Lancer]

moon should claim and then die.

[Servant Lancer]

If there's some reward for doing the gladiate, it makes sense to target MC.

If there's a loyal/disloyal aspect, it also makes sense to target MC.

Can you clarify what you mean by this?

[Servant Shielder]

Suzuka Gozen

Three times per game I can target someone. If they are male, I get to know whatever action they take towards me.

Two shot traffic analyst.

I can select a player to get a bonus NP point.

We already know my NP.

The third line talking about bonus np point feels like a town ability.

This role feels kind of bloated, though. They're also a two-shot traffic analyst on top of that, and an admittedly limited but potentially powerful three-shot ability. It has too much going for it.

[Servant Archer]

Having thought about it more, I am okay with a hammer here -- Moon Cancer was told to claim 12+hours ago in 1091, so they have already gotten that wait time I mentioned.

So in my opinion, Shielder / Berserker can hammer if they want

[Servant Lancer]

Apparently my true identity (character name) will be told to everyone as well.

Avenger said this right after the gladiate, so I am assuming that the name reveal happens regardless of whether the gladiate is retracted. I don't think it really matters though.

VOTE: Avenger

I think this is what Notsci would've wanted from the post he slipped on

this feels super awkward and like caster is ignoring everything that happened after the gladiate because they don't know how to react

Couple things,

Before any of this happened I probably would have voted Saber. However I've reread foreigner, avenger, and moon caster and I now think it's prudent to eliminate Moon Caster. Rereading the early game, I dislike their early read on Alter more than I previously did. The lack of update or more detailed explanation when pressed should not come from a player who was frustrated that the rest of town were in fact townreading Alter. I still find the shift in the rest of their reads plausible. Foreigner's iso was less bad than I thought it was, but I still don't like the approach to caster. The interaction between Foreigner and Moon Cancer does not appear to be a bus to me. I still lean town on avenger.

VOTE: Moon Cancer

this too I think

[Servant Alter Ego]

At this point it's likely Moon Cancer will stall things out, they've been waiting until the prod timer would run out to post. And, ultimately, I feel like nothing they could claim would actually make me want to keep them alive here with the way they're playing. Maybe I'm being hyper-tunneled, and I'm about to eat shit, but I'm fine with that if it's the case because Moon Cancer isn't even really playing the game at this point. If that thing is town then I know I need to reset my reads.

[Servant Beast]

I don't like the wagon composition on Moon cancer.

That's pretty much my only objection.

[Servant Shielder]

Based on Saber + Beast claims, I don't think I'd buy an investigative type claim here regardless, and I don't think a different type of claim can be so town that we'd change what we're doing

I don't have a personal opinion on Moon Cancer, but feel obligated to follow Berserker's 1091. That and I do see the merit in moving this along so we can discuss the next elimination, and I don't think this one is going to change

[Servant Beast]

Well, that and their reads are pretty divergent which I associate with town.

[Servant Archer]

At this point it's likely Moon Cancer will stall things out, they've been waiting until the prod timer would run out to post. And, ultimately, I feel like nothing they could claim would actually make me want to keep them alive here with the way they're playing. Maybe I'm being hyper-tunneled, and I'm about to eat shit, but I'm fine with that if it's the case because Moon Cancer isn't even really playing the game at this point. If that thing is town then I know I need to reset my reads.

Agreed.

@shielder, I will take responsibility for the hammer, if that would keep you from voting here

UNVOTE:

[Servant Shielder]

Are they divergent?

They were voting for Saber, who apparently felt enough pressure that they had to claim their role

[Servant Beast]

VOTE: Moon cancer

Hammer archer.

[Servant Beast]

They're divergent enough. imo. But we'll see.

[Servant Archer]

VOTE: Moon Cancer

[Servant Lancer]

assassin's post about saber's wagon felt like.. all bark but no bite.

On Saber:

I'm not sure how to preface this. Saber is a type of player I have trouble reading. They give off an aura of deep inexperience, are prone to faulty logic, heavy speculation, and paranoia. Is there a cutoff from which such behavior goes from possible of a town player to only being in the purview of scum? In my not particularly extraordinary mafia career, I have yet to see a bottom. There is no rabbit hole too deep from which any one townie will happily dive right into while the rest of everybody looks from the top down with shaking heads. And so, when I do see this happening, there are a good chuck of times I simply attribute it to town when in fact its just scum being audacious.

So what is the case for Saber? Firstly, right off the bat, I am positive Saber claimed their true power. If they were scum with a different one, well I do not think anyone would have the imagination to decide to blast off into being forced to defend the one claimed, which as anyone (normal) can see, is complete shit. However there is a case to be made (and I am leaning this way and will offer it) that Saber may very well have taken this power, and mentally decided to treat it as the next best thing to sliced bread. This is still insanity. No one of us would ever do this, but if Saber's proven anything, they have proven they are insane.

I can't actually show from their posts that saber doesn't think their power is the bee's knees when used early. Almost all are frighteningly consistent on that point. Arguably the very first few posts, like 35 are the only cracks there as Saber's other posts tend to signal that they think they are well-suited to the power (see 77, 205, 206, and 218) which would suggest they do in fact like the power. The context for 208 is actually what's happening right now, judgement time, but it is also consistent with someone who knows their power isn't all that good and less likely to come from someone who believes their power is good, for would we reasonable people not find Saber's oversell completely justified given the godlike power they claim to have? Why should Saber worry at all?

There are a couple posts in the iso I don't like but can't make up my mind if they are AI or simply make it clearer that Saber is selfish. Namely, 206 and more recently 909. The first is quite unsympathetic and the 2nd one really just discounts the fact objectively scum would have more to fear from a 100% guaranteed cop check than the mystery option. What moves me over the edge though is a couple of perspective inconsistencies: The paranoia of buddying. It exists in posts 235, 468, 472, and 520. By itself, possibly just overused diction stolen from 2015er newborns. But it really doesn't jive with posts like 316, 474, and to a lesser extent 909. That is, one cannot be both scared of buddying and argue that scum is trying to push over town by not supporting/advancing Saber's bid. Individually, each stance might be plausible to Saber, but I don't see a way to reconcile these.

I know I've basically thrown the kitchen sink here at Saber but I'm being as thorough as I can. And even still I'm not sure there isn't a better elimination option.

I mean I literally cannot tell whether assassin thinks saber is towny or scummy or has done anything town-indicative or scum-indicative. There is no actual stance on saber's alignment anywhere in here as far as I can tell. Even the last part that talks about the inconsistencies in saber's posting, assassin says he can't decide whether those are AI.

[Servant Archer]

They're divergent enough. imo. But we'll see.

Not that it matters any more, but I felt like their first read list was divergent, then their second read list was pretty close to the consensus - minus Alter Ego being in the bottom

[Servant Lancer]

I don't like the wagon composition on Moon cancer.

That's pretty much my only objection.

Who on the wagon don't you like?

[Servant Lancer]

Based on Saber + Beast claims, I don't think I'd buy an investigative type claim here regardless, and I don't think a different type of claim can be so town that we'd change what we're doing

I don't have a personal opinion on Moon Cancer, but feel obligated to follow Berserker's 1091. That and I do see the merit in moving this along so we can discuss the next elimination, and I don't think this one is going to change

I don't understand, why do saber and beast claims affect the possibility of an investigative?

[Servant Beast]

It's who isn't on the wagon.

Beast, Shielder, and Berserker weren't on the wagon which makes me anxious.

[Servant Archer]

Based on Saber + Beast claims, I don't think I'd buy an investigative type claim here regardless, and I don't think a different type of claim can be so town that we'd change what we're doing

I don't have a personal opinion on Moon Cancer, but feel obligated to follow Berserker's 1091. That and I do see the merit in moving this along so we can discuss the next elimination, and I don't think this one is going to change

I don't understand, why do saber and beast claims affect the possibility of an investigative?

Also, our confirmed townie has claimed that they have a passive ability which causes all investigative abilities targeting them to fail -- so, unless that is a red herring, we must have some sort of investigative abilities

[Servant Archer]

It's who isn't on the wagon.

Beast, Shielder, and Berserker weren't on the wagon which makes me anxious.

Well - one of you those is you. The other two BOTH were replaced today, so it is not surprising that they were not ready to commit to an elim.

The original Berserker openly said that Moon should be the first elim

[Servant Beast]

As is ruler missing from the wagon, so probably at least 1+ scum bussing.

There is some comfort that foreigner, rider, and Avenger aren't on the wagon. But I suspect at least one of those players is town and someone slipped the lenient net.

[Servant Lancer]

why do people care if scum are bussing

scum elim = good????

[Servant Archer]

I have no doubt that a member of the scum team would be ready to bus, when this is the last direction Notscience left before getting replaced lol

But moon should claim and then die.

[Servant Lancer]

Sure, Berserker. Do you want me to vote Saber?

As long as it’s in Saber or moon I’m happy.

VOTE: Saber

Can you explain why you picked voting saber over moon here?