MT 2219: The Battle of Calculasia - Endgame

[DrippingGoofball]

I'll personally see to it that both I and DGB are dead tomorrow.

???

That's a weak hider claim.

One of the most powerful roles out there when played right.

[Titus]

CAST OF CALCULASIA

The townies

DrippingGoofball
Xlos
Titus
Galron

Scum MVP

MathBlade

Scum

Almost50
Jake The Wolfie
WhemeStar
Toogeloo

I'm willing to take WhemeStar out of my scumblock today.
I don't feel Toog is scum. Same with A50 but I would hammer both given I understand the reasons on both.
Jake is a nusiance read.

Xlos and Galron are the pair that read tonally scummy to me. Can you talk about your TR there?

[Titus]

I'll personally see to it that both I and DGB are dead tomorrow.

???

That's a weak hider claim.

One of the most powerful roles out there when played right.

I'm ignoring it. A50 claimed yesterday.

[Ircher]

Day 3 VC #2

Almost50 (2): Xlos (989), MathBlade (1022)
Jake the Wolfie (1): Jake the Wolfie (1004)
Toogeloo (1): Galron (976)

Not Voting (5): WhemeStar, Almost50, DrippingGoofball, Toogeloo, Titus

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to fade a player.

Deadlines

This phase will end no earlier than Thursday, July 8, 2021 9:45:00 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-08 21:45:00).
This phase will end no later than Wednesday, July 14, 2021 9:45 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-14 21:45:00).

Moderator Notes

1: If you have regular weekend V/LA, please inform me each week.
2: Please let me know if you have a different pronoun preference than listed below.

Pronoun Key

1: DrippingGoofball : It
3: Xlos : He/him
4: Almost50 : He/him
5: Jake the Wolfie : Any
6: Galron : He/him
7: MathBlade : He/him
9: Titus : She/her
10: WhemeStar : He/him
12: Toogeloo : They/them

[MathBlade]

Could be a fake out but unlikely.

You’re theorizing that a flavor cop is a fake out when it’s inside a joat?

When a doctor has flipped, an even night rolecop,, a claimed RB, a claimed one shot cop, and a neighbor?

I count two ways for follow the cop.
Flavor has to have some meaning here I think.
I also think it’s really antitown to keep talking about it.

There’s also my other outstanding question of your VCA Titus.

Your feelings yesterday nom was town was bad.
Now you’re arguing Toog,A50, and DGB are all town and so follow the cop would exist.
This setup was reviewed by a good mod.
Good mods don’t allow follow the cop.

So either explain how follow the cop doesn’t exist here.

And A50 as to your offer if Xlos is elimmed and if Xlos flips town then tomorrow if I am not dead then I will see about if your offer occurred.

It’s also weird Wheme didn’t completely freak out that A50 claimed a flavor for him but instead on the mechanical post of A50s.

Like Titus what are you doing?

[MathBlade]

I'll personally see to it that both I and DGB are dead tomorrow.

???

That's a weak hider claim.

One of the most powerful roles out there when played right.

I'm ignoring it. A50 claimed yesterday.

Yes the informed neighbor hider who did the completely smart thing in flavor claim and a town PR absolutely didn’t die /sarcasm

Titus why aren’t you on A50 yet?

[MathBlade]

More specifically assume DGB T3 both claim D1. Murdercat does not claim.

What mechanic exists to stop this from being:

DGB one shot cop checks nom. Scum shoot DGB. DGB doesn’t die due to doctor who would protect cop claim.
Nom is red, DGB claimed D1.
T3 checks anyone. Scum shoot T3. T3 doesn’t die due to doctor who would protect the even night Role cop.

Scum usually at best have one shot strongman.

So help me out here Titus:
If there is a third “Root Test” even if it could act on D3+ how does follow the cop not exist here Titus?

So far we have seen a Joat that doesn’t prevent follow the cop Titus.
Even a one shot strongman doesn’t prevent follow the cop.

Explain to me how you don’t have a scum in Toog/A50/DGB.

[MathBlade]

In the world you are theorizing scum have to make it through a roleblock, a doctor, and two cops in two nights. And if you believe A50 then they can’t fake claim flavor because of a third potential issue and if Root Test is another investigative as a50 wants us to believe that’s 4.

Need two strongman kills and a way to defend against the cop checks.

Mechanically Toog makes the most sense to be scum but by play does not.
A50 by play is scummy AF and the claims get wilder by the day.
DGB is Townie on paper but this is scum meta for them.

One of them has to be scum. Look back and decide who and if you don’t address this problem and theorize which is scum then it’s becoming more likely you’re scum with one of those three and everyone else gets de facto Town because 3 scum.

[Titus]

There’s also my other outstanding question of your VCA Titus.

Your feelings yesterday nom was town was bad.
Now you’re arguing Toog,A50, and DGB are all town and so follow the cop would exist.
This setup was reviewed by a good mod.
Good mods don’t allow follow the cop.

So either explain how follow the cop doesn’t exist here.

I'm not playing purely mechanically.

Follow the cop can't exist when DGB is out of shots though.

Maybe I'll have time for my VCA tonight. We'll see.

[Titus]

Playing a mech game gives scum room to burn. I just did that to DGB.

[MathBlade]

There’s also my other outstanding question of your VCA Titus.

Your feelings yesterday nom was town was bad.
Now you’re arguing Toog,A50, and DGB are all town and so follow the cop would exist.
This setup was reviewed by a good mod.
Good mods don’t allow follow the cop.

So either explain how follow the cop doesn’t exist here.

I'm not playing purely mechanically.

Follow the cop can't exist when DGB is out of shots though.

Maybe I'll have time for my VCA tonight. We'll see.

Literally just wrote how it would.

By day three you assuming your town reads you have
1) Unelimable DGB
2) Unelimable T3
3) Unelimable town from DGB check / Conf scum
4) Probable town/scum from T3 even night check

If we assume the Best case scenario for scum and town!DGB gets and not scum and T3 hits a vanilla so prob Town and two miselims

Then you end up with 4 confirmed/likely town, 3 scum alive, 2 other players left.

That becomes literally unwinnable for scum.

Therefore your theory DGB Toog A50 all town seems very very improbable as I doubt there would be an unwinnable setup for scum.

Hell I will even grant you a one shot strongman used on T3 which is the best not follow the cop then you’re still at

2 conf town on D3 vs 3 scum vs 4 others.

This one technically is viable barely but requires town to be dumb or scum to get lucky with a flavor cop.

I get not wanting to play a mechanical game to not give scum places to hide but at some point it has to come into your reads.

I find A50’s informed (not taken into account for simplicity of explanation sake) most likely to be false. There is no logical way I see how scum would not have to deal with follow the cop here. I just don’t with your theory.

Until and unless you provide a theory that works I don’t give a shit about your feelings that were wrong yesterday.

[MathBlade]

If we go by order of mechanically most likely a liar: A50,DGB, Toog
If we go by order of role claims true ignoring play order of most likely scum: Toog, DGB, A50
If we go by play alone most likely a liar: A50, Toog, DGB

So A50 is the most likely scum imho of the three.

[MathBlade]

There’s also my other outstanding question of your VCA Titus.

Your feelings yesterday nom was town was bad.
Now you’re arguing Toog,A50, and DGB are all town and so follow the cop would exist.
This setup was reviewed by a good mod.
Good mods don’t allow follow the cop.

So either explain how follow the cop doesn’t exist here.

I'm not playing purely mechanically.

Follow the cop can't exist when DGB is out of shots though.

Maybe I'll have time for my VCA tonight. We'll see.

Literally just wrote how it would.

By day three you assuming your town reads you have
1) Unelimable DGB
2) Unelimable T3
3) Unelimable town from DGB check / Conf scum
4) Probable town/scum from T3 even night check

If we assume the Best case scenario for scum and town!DGB gets and not scum and T3 hits a vanilla so prob Town and two miselims

Then you end up with 4 confirmed/likely town, 3 scum alive, 2 other players left.

That becomes literally unwinnable for scum.

Therefore your theory DGB Toog A50 all town seems very very improbable as I doubt there would be an unwinnable setup for scum.

Hell I will even grant you a one shot strongman used on T3 which is the best not follow the cop then you’re still at

2 conf town on D3 vs 3 scum vs 4 others.

This one technically is viable barely but requires town to be dumb or scum to get lucky with a flavor cop.

I get not wanting to play a mechanical game to not give scum places to hide but at some point it has to come into your reads.

I find A50’s informed (not taken into account for simplicity of explanation sake) most likely to be false. There is no logical way I see how scum would not have to deal with follow the cop here. I just don’t with your theory.

Until and unless you provide a theory that works I don’t give a shit about your feelings that were wrong yesterday.

Whoops slight correction

If kill on DGB and T3 fails then it’s 4v3v4 and I think that’s still unwinnable
If kill on T3 passes and DGB fails then 3 v3 v 4 I think that’s right on the edge of maybe possible

Quite simply put I get your desire for not a mechanical game that’s why it’s a PoE.

There’s still room for a reads case and depending upon how you read people maybe Toog is scummier than A50 to you, or maybe you understand my DGB paranoia more or maybe you agree A50 is scum.

There is still forced reads but imho we have to elim in those three.

[MathBlade]

Omg I literally cannot sentence structure on my phone at work

That’s kill on DGB fails and T3 passes.

Yay sentence structure.

Work for me now bbl but imho I think we find the scum in those three somewhere.

[Titus]

I disagree with your mechanical analysis. You suppose T3 would get a mechanical clear or a guilty just based on his actions. Getting a vanilla result is hard from a clear.

In this setup right now, we have 1 unlimmable and that's DGB. There's no further clears.

That's winnable.

If we have a town Toog, that's strictly negative utility. Toog could be town who blocked nomnomnom who was trying to flavor cop. The odds of Toog getting a positive block are slim. I'd compromise here but I think Toog is town.

A50 and Xlos deserve further consideration. Xlos fought to keep nomnomnom alive and is now pushing A50. A50 was seeking flavor claims as the cop went down. Yet, Xlos was seeking categories which made a flavor check easier.

[MathBlade]

You’re looking at right now is winnable for scum.

I agree.

You’re blatantly misinterpreting my argument.

Follow the cop if D1 mass claim (except doctor) makes all roles currently claimed impossible.

If Murdercat wasn’t dead then the game is unwinnable for scum.

Ircher and SirCakez are good mods. It is logical that they would not have follow the cop.

Scum have some kind of defense against cop + doctor in newbie queue it’s an unlimited roleblocker. Ergo by claim Toog likely scum.

You cannot seriously be suggesting no problems because scum are okay now. That’s missing the point.

[MathBlade]

And how do you know there’s no further clears?
What about this Root test?

VOTE: Titus

Calling it now Titus+A50.

[Titus]

Math, your argument is off the wall and inconsistent. You argue Toog is scum rb but the team is A50 and me.

I'm not doubting A50 can be scum. I'm just not joining your analysis that there must be scum.

[Titus]

A strongman can avoid follow the cop as well. What is suggested may not be true.

Toog may be scum, but mechanics don't damn him.

[Titus]

Alright, today has been much more exciting! Here are my thoughts. I will say the first one with high confidence.
1. Exactly one of DBG and nomnomnom are town. DBG is really going in for the kill here, it's unimaginable that they are both scum. Why can't they both be town? Well, think about it. If they are both town, then the sheer number of coincidences that need to have happened to get to this point is far too high. nomnomnom just so happened to be a miller, and DBG just so happened to be the (one-shot) cop, and DBG just so happened to investigate the miller day 1? This is really unlikely. Even given that one of them is telling the truth, both sides have very unlikely stories.

For those who believe nom's claim, explain why the mod would put in a miller when our cop only gets one shot?
(This is a discredit btw)

Your question also supports this conclusion.

Now for the next thought.
2. The one which is scum is DBG. Firstly, just in terms of post vibe, nomnomnom is more believable than DBG to me. DBG is pushing very hard for an early hammer, on the basis of nomnomnom having done an early hammer.
Secondly, and much more importantly, the cop claim is fake. Let's look at it:

The reason is that the claim.

So, yeah, I am a one-shot cop, no point hiding it since I am vanilla now.

I investigated and obviously got a guilty.

The first reason this appears fake: If true, there is no point in hiding this claim. And yet, he waits a very long time to do so. With no breadcrumbs beforehand.

The second reason this appears fake: It's incredibly convenient. DBG writes this claim very shortly after nomnomnom claims miller. I.E. it comes right after confirmation that this claim is ok to make appears. If DBG is scum, it's just found a way to claim a role without any risk, push his wagon against nomnomnom even harder, and not have any responsibilities later with having claimed cop.

The third reason this appears fake: DBG has no positive reaction to nomnomnom claiming miller. Either you believe the claim or you don't, this claim means that he has no reason to be more aggressive than anyone else. The miller claim comes before the cop claim, so it should have some doubt. Why is DBG still pushing hard for an early hammer at this point? Before I can even wake up and say my opinion? He appears to want to silence the other opinions quickly.

So for these reasons, I think that we should

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

But I'm also fine with killing someone else. I don't think killing nomnomnom now is a great move, since they have to power to confirm themselves with their friendly neighbor ability. Remember, they were blocked by town. Who cares that the cop is dead? nomnomnom can literally just confirm their role tomorrow provided there isn't a scum roleblocker. Votes on nomnomnom today are just useless

Now another thing I find interesting is how much people are chasing nomnomnom pre-miller claim. Yes, he hammered town, but T3 did the exact same thing in a situation that was way worse (The Flea wagon was more justified and much later in the day than the MURDERCAT wagon, hammering was reasonable).


So I do feel pretty suspicious of those early votes by WhemeStar, Almost50, Galron, and Titus. They say "I'll sheep" but

what are they even sheeping???

Literally just a naked vote with "DIE SCUM DIE" written above it. Uhhhhh

I also wanna briefly consider the information from MURDERCAT's doom. There are basically two reasons to NK him in particular: 1) He was close to conftown or 2) His suspicions were too close to the target. It's probably not 1, considering that MURDERCAT came right off of a full wagon, and I think that the only positive post others made about him was DG's 294 (small town points, definitely doesn't come close to balancing the above, though). I mean, most people feel sus to me though so maybe it was 1. In any case, 2) must have been a factor at least in part.

I think if I were to try to hero solve this would be my team:

{Almost50, theslimer3, Galron}

There's at least 1 scum in these 3. Not that knowing this is that helpful, 1 in 3 aren't the best odds. But there might be 2. IMO Galron is the most suspicious followed by Almost50, and theslimer seems fairly town to me.

Edit: Vote changed for VCer.
~Ircher

This post by Xlos concerns me given how hard he fights to test it.

[Titus]

*it is friendly neighbor

[Titus]

If you were going with your prior argument, dgb v nom is S v S. Posts like Xlos would be the third.

Xlos should be the wagon today.

VOTE: Xlos

[Titus]

I want to work with DGB and get its thoughts.

[Toogeloo]

Explain please.

This doesn’t add up. You were talking about A50 and Titus at end of day and choose to block Galron?

I just felt that Galron wasn't getting any attention. Everyone knows I claimed Roleblocker, so blocking someone I suspect would seem obvious.

---

I could vote either A50 or xlos based solely on their insistence of flavor claiming. I do like A50's request to kill xlos, with the "tonight I guarantee," caveat, however.

[DrippingGoofball]

Xlos' post is so bad, but they are trying to figure things out and looking at every angle. They reached the wrong conclusion, sure, but it's a long "no stone unturned" post where they indeed left no stone unturned worth mentioning. The wheels are actually turning and following a slightly messy, but not nonsensical progression.

One day MathBlade will have enough information on me to realize I would never bus a useful buddy, only one that is a liability to the team and more useful dead than alive.

MathBlade could still be scum, it's a triple-replacement player slot that plays the paranoid card to the hilt and seems super-salty that the town has power roles.

======================

Night 1, Toog allegedly roleblocked nom, a claimed power role that had gotten little suspicion.
Night 2, Took allegedly roleblocked Galron, when he could have roleblocked a suspicious character like Xlos, MathBlade, Whemestar OR EVEN ME since there are a few people that think I hard bus'ed nomnomnom. I claimed 1-shot... if you think I'm scum then it's not a terrible wager that I might perform the kill.

Toog's actions makes zero sense, and when things don't make sense (like a friendly neighbor miller claiming on day 2 and allegedly also roleblocked) it's because we've hit scum.

His read progression, as Titus pointed out, also makes little sense.

VOTE: Toogeloo