FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Lancer]

VOTE: caster

[Servant Alter Ego]

I'll take a look at the relationship between Moon Caster and Saber, but I'm going to prudently treat Moon's reads as being WIFOM.

This is probably wise, NK15 hardly even bothered to explain himself after his first few posts, I feel like he went into shutdown mode the moment he got even the slightest bit of heat. Posts in the Townstumps Scum PT indicate he doesn't really put in effort.

Do you think that that would still apply to literally their first post in the thread -- before any pressure was on them? Because that is the post I reference back to.

No, obviously not. But I can see motive for scum to support the leading Masterization wagon both if it's on scum and if it's on town. But looking at NK15's comments in the townstumps PT, he calls himself "the most likely [to] be eliminated member of the scumteam" right away. He knows he sucks. Does he immediately move to vote to lose a member of his team in the first phase, when he knows he'll be unlikely to carry? I have my doubts. Even that first vote is WIFOM.

[Servant Saber]

If there's some reward for doing the gladiate, it makes sense to target MC.

If there's a loyal/disloyal aspect, it also makes sense to target MC.

Can you clarify what you mean by this?

Sorry. I missed this.

I am not sure how it's unclear so forgive me if I don't make this clearer.

If Avenger got a bonus for gladiating, going with the consensus target makes sense.

If Avenger could tell the alignment of the target by the gladiate, it make sense to go with MC.

[Servant Archer]

VOTE: Ruler
I would not be against a Ruler elim either.

Mastina talked more about Moon Cancer, then moon cancer ever even posted themselves

Spoiler:

Strange as 226 may be, my inclination is Servant Moon Cancer's pure of heart

I buy Servant Moon Cancer's 464 as pure of heart.

Scum

Servant Moon Cancer

- Originally one could have made the argument that such controversial reads in 226 were more likely to come from scum. Then, they change their entire list up in 462 after receiving a lot of flak over a few of these reads, one central one is their read on me. They justify the read on me in 238 (and I use the term justify lightly). The person who calls it out (other than me I believe) is Alter, their lowest scumread. There is no backtrack, there is no attempt to read me, just a strange flip. Even if they said "Well my strongest townread is pro-Berserker Master" that would at least make some sense. The backtracks feel too inorganic.

I would raise the counterargument of simple motive, giving the risk and reward of the action undertaken and what it would strive to accomplish as either a corrupt or pure of heart.

With the initial readslist of 226, this post came out of the blue. It was random, it was largely against the grain, it was something going largely against thread consensus, with no logic presented, with nothing backing it up. Ask yourself, what does this accomplish if the player in question is corrupt? It casts attention onto them, it makes people give a side-eye to them, it makes the players think the individual in question is suspicious. It draws the eye and makes players focus on

Servant Moon Cancer

. None of this furthers the agenda of the corrupt. It gives a corrupt player nothing but unwanted attention, making individuals naturally suspicious of them.

I realize "too scummy to be scum" is a fallacy, but this is not using that fallacy. This is taking a look at which faction would be more likely to make the post in question. What possible advantage, what possible goal, was there in

Servant Moon Cancer

making that post if corrupt? It is not going to sway the minds of the masses. It is not going to convince the town that they are wrong on any of their reads. It cannot dissuade the town from pushing on the corrupt and cannot dissuade the town from correctly identifying those pure of heart. So what possible goal can there be for a corrupted servant to post 226? I can think of no motive and no reason for it.

In contrast, if

Servant Moon Cancer

is pure of heart, the motivation to post 226 is self-explanatory: they had formulated reads and made the decision to share these reads with the rest of the gathered.

When it comes to the shift in reads in 462 without prompting, the presented reads may have more in common with the group consensus (particularly a fair amount of overlap with my own takes), but I believe there is strong evidence that they formed these reads independently after having caught up, especially since their reads are not literally identical to other players. For instance, 464 does a good job of explaining the differences between their reads and mine.

Servant Moon Cancer

shows a strong individual thought process there unique to them, with reads that serve no function if they are corrupted.

What benefit is it to them to strongly scumread

Servant Alter Ego

, a consensus townread, while otherwise following the majority of the consensus in their own townreads? If they were corrupt, I struggle to see how. I admit it is not completely impossible, but the simpler explanation to me is they have their own takes spurned from genuinely forming reads thanks to being pure of heart.

It is also in part

because

there is no backtrack. There is simply a flip. A corrupt servant is more likely to try and justify a shift in their reads thanks to fear of suspicion were they to not justify it. (You even point out how this works with your take on me and how if I were corrupt I could justify a shift in read on

Servant Saber

. So you must be aware of what I am talking about.) A servant pure of heart fears nothing, so they feel no such obligation and are more free to truthfully speak their mind, even if it involves a shift from their prior thoughts.

Is this sufficient explanation for my read on

Servant Moon Cancer

?

I believe that the POE of {Alter Ego, Foreigner, Saber} has three scum. That obviously leaves one scum but I am sure we can find that one eventually.

Did you just POE in a game some people barely posted? So fake

POE in a game some servants have barely posted is perfectly doable if you generate enough townreads from the content posted.

I’d appreciate it if everyone’s next post could include two people they prefer and two people off the table when it comes to elimination one. Preferably with detail about each.

Off the table:

Servants Moon Cancer, Beast

. Not because they are my strongest pure of heart reads, but because they are the most likely to be falsely accused on D1 when they are pure of heart

Would Prefer not to Eliminate

Today

/Likely Pure of Heart

:

Servant Moon Cancer:

Though my heart of heart tells me deep in my intuition that they are very strongly pure of heart, I realize I have not much to objectify my read here beyond disagreeing with the strong distaste of the slot. I do not think

Servant Moon Cancer

's contributions indicate they are corrupt, but I have little to substantiate this claim.

[Servant Lancer]

If there's some reward for doing the gladiate, it makes sense to target MC.

If there's a loyal/disloyal aspect, it also makes sense to target MC.

Can you clarify what you mean by this?

Sorry. I missed this.

I am not sure how it's unclear so forgive me if I don't make this clearer.

If Avenger got a bonus for gladiating, going with the consensus target makes sense.

If Avenger could tell the alignment of the target by the gladiate, it make sense to go with MC.

he didn't gladiate MC though..?

[Servant Archer]

I would also say that new Rulers 1284 and 1287 seem strange as well

Spoiler:

THIS IS DUMB AF

WHY ARE WE MOVING TO ELIMINATE THE GLADIATOR

Excuse me for my language but my lord and savior wouldnt approve of my rage.

At least one between lancer/alter is scum for their hard push against avenger.

Thats a horrible trade off but I dont see two scum going to bat for their buddy in this manner

And I could see that being an attempt to keep us from defaulting back to a moon cancer elim. They have yet to come back and answer my questions in 1288 as well.

[Servant Alter Ego]

What's going to be more relevant is how people positioned themselves around Moon Cancer. Given the strength of his role I suspect that scumteam didn't want to lose him right away and that was why he was so difficult to flip.

I agree.

My current theory is that scum wanted to preserve all avaliable miseliminations for later.

1) I get threatened for being weird.
2) Foreigner for being new.
3) Avenger for arrogance.

They hammer Avenger for the gladiate. Then listen to his read on Foreigner. Then come after me.

It's a strong chain that might save Moon.

With 14 players alive, it takes 8 votes to burn a servant.

Avenger (6): Lancer, Foreigner, Alter Ego, Saber, Archer, Caster
Foreigner (2): Ruler, Avenger


Deadline: (expired on 2021-07-12 00:17:51)


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Who are you implying is scum voting Avenger, then?

[Servant Lancer]

in my limited experience, town!mastina is just as likely to hard defend scum like that, so I'm not sure that's alignment-indicative. The new Ruler has had some pretty weird takes though.

[Servant Beast]

I'm pretty late to this party but I'm back to thinking Lancer is town now.

[Servant Archer]

@Ruler

Do you think that having a gladiate ability is inherently townie? Do you think that the way Avenger used it was particularly townie? Were you town reading them before the gladiate?

At least one between lancer/alter is scum for their hard push against avenger.

Thats a horrible trade off but I dont see two scum going to bat for their buddy in this manner

Also, why are you honing in on Alter and Lancer?

Avenger (6): Lancer, Foreigner, Alter Ego, Saber, Archer, Caster

[Servant Beast]

Not feeling a Ruler vote, like, not even a little. I could be wrong and maybe everyone I defend is scum, actually, but there's quite a lot there that points away from ruler scum. How they chose to play this game is pretty unique and unexpected from scum.

[Servant Foreigner]

VOTE: foreigner
This is flipping scum.

The reason I gladiator here is

because I do that read Moon as scum.

Now when you say moon cancer's posts are not scummy, can you explain specifically why you don't think moon cancer's read on alter is scummy?

Because there's nothing for me to really go by on it.
I just don't read Moon as scummy though.

I mean, you've gladiated foreigner and diverted an elim away from moon cancer so it stands to reason that you think moon cancer isn't scummy. You also literally said you're not scumreading moon cancer. So I'm asking you what the difference is between the two that leads to scumreading foreigner but not moon cancer. how is that a loaded question?

why is moon cancer elimbait but foreigner isn't?


do you think moon cancer's wagon was scum-driven or that there were 2 or more scum on it?

scum bus each other all the time. are you saying you'd never willingly vote with the bus on scum?

foreigner isn't lim bait, let's not pretend here.
I cant discuss on all of it because of the limits Cabd added here but I know that they used a scummy tactical move to try and push me a scum.
Since then, there's no effort at all from limming me other than the occasional shade with no backing.

At least Moon stuck with the scum read there. Well until the end of it, bit that's ot the points your arguing.

The difference with these 2 is foreigner is actively shading and doing fuck all else where.
Moon is just not posting.
The wagon I haven't looked over for Moon to thought. I also agree, it could be scum bussing. My argument isn't that Moon is always town and this is what you are trying to push my comments as.
My comment is that Moon is probably town from default but I wouldn't consider that if it was vs a town read.

nice progression over two hours

[Servant Saber]

What's going to be more relevant is how people positioned themselves around Moon Cancer. Given the strength of his role I suspect that scumteam didn't want to lose him right away and that was why he was so difficult to flip.

I agree.

My current theory is that scum wanted to preserve all avaliable miseliminations for later.

1) I get threatened for being weird.
2) Foreigner for being new.
3) Avenger for arrogance.

They hammer Avenger for the gladiate. Then listen to his read on Foreigner. Then come after me.

It's a strong chain that might save Moon.

With 14 players alive, it takes 8 votes to burn a servant.

Avenger (6): Lancer, Foreigner, Alter Ego, Saber, Archer, Caster
Foreigner (2): Ruler, Avenger


Deadline: (expired on 2021-07-12 00:17:51)


Page Usage: 20/42

Who are you implying is scum voting Avenger, then?

I didn't look at the votes with my theory. It could be non voters at the end looking to capitalize. There's no list there. Eliminate Saber and Foreigner bc my theory.

That leaves Lancer Alter Archer and Caster plus unvoters.

Caster felt the most subdued out of the four. So I guess them. When we get to emotional reading, I am garbage but I would suggest one of the four if not two.

[Servant Foreigner]

Me removing the gladiator shouldn't change the vote from me and foreigner.
Either I'm scum trying to survive or I'm right by doing so. So why would I remove the gladiator as either alignment there?

Well do as you like.
Personally Ego has made me just feel shit at this stage to really care what happens.

I removed the challenge just go with me.

Here is a proof that Avenger thoughts are artificial. First he hoped that 1234 mindsets will give him townreads, when it didn't work he dropped down facade and played the opposite way.

[Servant Foreigner]

Me and saber were first to catch Moon, so you should follow me now.

[Servant Avenger]

VOTE: foreigner
This is flipping scum.

The reason I gladiator here is

because I do that read Moon as scum.

Now when you say moon cancer's posts are not scummy, can you explain specifically why you don't think moon cancer's read on alter is scummy?

Because there's nothing for me to really go by on it.
I just don't read Moon as scummy though.

I mean, you've gladiated foreigner and diverted an elim away from moon cancer so it stands to reason that you think moon cancer isn't scummy. You also literally said you're not scumreading moon cancer. So I'm asking you what the difference is between the two that leads to scumreading foreigner but not moon cancer. how is that a loaded question?

why is moon cancer elimbait but foreigner isn't?


do you think moon cancer's wagon was scum-driven or that there were 2 or more scum on it?

scum bus each other all the time. are you saying you'd never willingly vote with the bus on scum?

foreigner isn't lim bait, let's not pretend here.
I cant discuss on all of it because of the limits Cabd added here but I know that they used a scummy tactical move to try and push me a scum.
Since then, there's no effort at all from limming me other than the occasional shade with no backing.

At least Moon stuck with the scum read there. Well until the end of it, bit that's ot the points your arguing.

The difference with these 2 is foreigner is actively shading and doing fuck all else where.
Moon is just not posting.
The wagon I haven't looked over for Moon to thought. I also agree, it could be scum bussing. My argument isn't that Moon is always town and this is what you are trying to push my comments as.
My comment is that Moon is probably town from default but I wouldn't consider that if it was vs a town read.

nice progression over two hours

This is a full on mis rep.
Anyone town reading Foreinger should consider that this is a blatant mis rep considering my next post I corrected my post error.

I do that read Moon as scum.

Because I do not*

[Servant Foreigner]

ups XD

[Servant Avenger]

Here is a proof that Avenger thoughts are artificial. First he hoped that 1234 mindsets will give him townreads, when it didn't work he dropped down facade and played the opposite way.

And this is just ew.
Regardless of alignment it's only natural to feel shit in that situation.

[Servant Foreigner]

whatever, second point was more important

[Servant Foreigner]

Caster is also still scum

[Servant Avenger]

Caster felt the most subdued out of the four. So I guess them. When we get to emotional reading, I am garbage but I would suggest one of the four if not two.

This I can agree with.
Caster pinged me originally with this.

I have promised my vote to Berserker and I will follow him wherever he goes <3

Early game I liked Caster but this just felt like trying to not have an opinion so no negative feedback comes in on any town flips.

[Servant Archer]

That leaves Lancer Alter Archer and Caster plus unvoters.

Caster felt the most subdued out of the four. So I guess them. When we get to emotional reading, I am garbage but I would suggest one of the four if not two.

I find this interesting. I looked back to see who you are town reading, and the most recent thing I found was 1053 where you agreed that all of "Alter/Archer/Caster/Shielder/Rider/Foreigner" were probably town.

But now you are saying that Lancer/Alter/Archer/Caster probably have 1-2 scum?

Can you clarify here? Or even just give us an updated read list

[Servant Foreigner]

VOTE: Moon Cancer

What is this vote? Caster had no earlier concerns about Moon but jumped in as soon as saw that Moon is going to die.

[Servant Beast]

But I did that too, I'm just not shit enough to actually 180 like that as scum.
Why am I defending people.

[Servant Foreigner]

there are no other caster posts near 1269, she just joined to make sure to be on wagon and disappeared