FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Lancer]

VOTE: ruler

[Servant Ruler]

It does feel like your hand was im the cookie jar and youre trying to talk your way out lf it

[Servant Lancer]

right. would you like to explain how your scumread on me fits with me being the person to swing the wagon back to moon cancer?

mastina's writing style is incredibly distinctive. I've read a bunch of her posts in discussion and really don't need to have played mafia with her to recognize it.

[Servant Ruler]

Because scum hardbussing in that manner defintely hasn't happened before.

I also defintely can't pull games up to show that it has happened before.

[Servant Ruler]

Why is that the almighty town indicator for you?

You could have been bussing moon cancer for a variety of reasons. From what i have read, alot of his posts were null, non existant, coasting and its the perfect bus for a buddy to get behimd on. I don't think your stance against that is indicative of anything

[Servant Archer]

Here are my thoughts on the Gladiate:

No one should be town reading Avenger for it

.

I am on the fence on whether I am scum reading him for it, or if I should just treat it as NAI, but I am definitely not going to be town reading them for it.

The key thing for me is the game state the moment that he chose to gladiate:

----------

Notty, the definitive town leader who 100% could have pushed though what ever wagon he wanted, stated that he wanted:
~Flip 1 to be Moon Cancer -- 1091
~Flip 2 to be Avenger -- 1095

If both Moon Cancer and Avenger are scum, then what did they have to lose by making such a play? If anything, the scum team would need to do something drastic.

I could see Scum!Avenger deciding that if they did nothing, then losing 2 members of the scum team was near guaranteed, but that activating the gladiate on a widely scum read player MIGHT just buy them a Foreigner flip -> essentially buying one of Moon/Avenger an extra day.

----------

Again. I am still trying to sort Avenger myself, but the scum motivation for the play is there given the game state, so:

I cannot buy the "scum would never do this, so we should town read them" argument.

I am still on the fence as to whether this is more likely or town Avenger deciding to make a horrible play (hijacking the thread, going against the town leader, and standing in the way of a Moon Cancer elim)

[Servant Caster]

I don't think Foreigner was that widely scum-read but I do agree that it doesn't make any sense for a townie to think "Oh I'm being ignored? Let me hijack the thread with a Gladiate, THAT will get people to listen to me"

His gladiate doesn't make sense from either town or scum so it is NAI.

[Servant Caster]

I think Saber might be the best elim here.

A lot of what they said today doesn't make a lot of sense.

[Servant Ruler]

For what reason?

[Servant Ruler]

Doesn't make sense isnt a reason. Saber is another person i think is being attackrd for differencr pf playstyle

[Servant Rider]

I agree that Saber is probably the best elim for today. They're already claimed, so we won't have to worry about the risk of running up some random townie to a claim and giving the scumteam any more information than they've already received from us this Day Phase. And enough people are scumreading or at least suspicious of Saber that an elimination there will allow most players to reset or reconsider their reads if we're wrong.

[Servant Caster]

If there's some reward for doing the gladiate, it makes sense to target MC.

If there's a loyal/disloyal aspect, it also makes sense to target MC.

Can you clarify what you mean by this?

Sorry. I missed this.

I am not sure how it's unclear so forgive me if I don't make this clearer.

If Avenger got a bonus for gladiating, going with the consensus target makes sense.

If Avenger could tell the alignment of the target by the gladiate, it make sense to go with MC.

I don't get this explanation at all.

What does it even mean to tell the alignment of someone you are gladiating? You expect the gladiate to give him a result?

What's going to be more relevant is how people positioned themselves around Moon Cancer. Given the strength of his role I suspect that scumteam didn't want to lose him right away and that was why he was so difficult to flip.

I agree.

My current theory is that scum wanted to preserve all avaliable miseliminations for later.

1) I get threatened for being weird.
2) Foreigner for being new.
3) Avenger for arrogance.

They hammer Avenger for the gladiate. Then listen to his read on Foreigner. Then come after me.

It's a strong chain that might save Moon.

I don't think this is the type of scum team we are against and also they don't actually have any names attached, it feels like something they made up.

What's going to be more relevant is how people positioned themselves around Moon Cancer. Given the strength of his role I suspect that scumteam didn't want to lose him right away and that was why he was so difficult to flip.

I agree.

My current theory is that scum wanted to preserve all avaliable miseliminations for later.

1) I get threatened for being weird.
2) Foreigner for being new.
3) Avenger for arrogance.

They hammer Avenger for the gladiate. Then listen to his read on Foreigner. Then come after me.

It's a strong chain that might save Moon.

With 14 players alive, it takes 8 votes to burn a servant.

Avenger (6): Lancer, Foreigner, Alter Ego, Saber, Archer, Caster
Foreigner (2): Ruler, Avenger


Deadline: (expired on 2021-07-12 00:17:51)


Page Usage: 20/42

Who are you implying is scum voting Avenger, then?

I didn't look at the votes with my theory. It could be non voters at the end looking to capitalize. There's no list there. Eliminate Saber and Foreigner bc my theory.

That leaves Lancer Alter Archer and Caster plus unvoters.

Caster felt the most subdued out of the four. So I guess them. When we get to emotional reading, I am garbage but I would suggest one of the four if not two.

@Archer, I was spitballing a theory to get my reads put together. I need to clarify that to myself.

This explanation feels half-baked as if they didn't expect to actually flesh out their theory with actual names.

[Servant Archer]

These are the people I am okay with flipping atm :

[Saber, Avenger, Foreigner, Ruler]

[Servant Rider]

This explanation feels half-baked as if they didn't expect to actually flesh out their theory with actual names.

I generally got the impression the goal was primarily to take suspicion off of themselves and throw it literally anywhere else rather than to find an appropriate alternative.

[Servant Caster]

For what reason?

I want to see what type of game state we are actually playing in. Specifically I want to know if Scum contested the Master at all or if they decided very early that none of them would be trying for it.

Here are all the things I didn't like about Saber:

I want to be the master. My strength is in the early game and I don't particularly like my noble phantasm.

I don't think this is a sensible description of their NP, which as I understand is some kind of thread silencer that prevents a slot from talking? I don't see the use of it. Them trying to over-sell it as the best thing since sliced bread because it can shut down toxic 1v1s is just ???? to me. We can do the same thing by just threatening the toxic 1v1ers with a policy elim if it ever becomes too much. We don't need a NP activation, if anything this NP is utterly useless and I have no idea why they would think it's around the same power level as a cop shot.

Using mine right away is better than using it later.

This is the line that I originally liked from Saber, I thought the thinking about when to use the NP felt town to me.

However now that Saber has claimed and their NP is like pretty useless, I don't see why Saber would want to

use it right away.

I find it really difficult to believe they were excited about using this NP.

Also another important thing is being a thread leader/town leader. something that the IC really has to do a good job on to boost our odds. From Saber's play throughout the game, I just don't believe they are qualified to be in this position and I don't see why they would volunteer.

[Servant Archer]

It is very hard to get into this game and to understand what's going on

I find this post suspect.

It comes after:
~1284, where Ruler made a big noise over the gladiate, where they had a very, very clear preference between Foreigner and Avenger, and
~1287 where they making an accusation at both Lancer and Alter (while having enough thread awareness to avoid pointing their finger at me for the same thing at the same time).

And it came

immediately

before:
~1444, where they take several stances, both in regards to Avenger and his gladiate, and Saber and his claim and the pushes being made in his direction

[Servant Archer]

To add to 1514 from Caster, I would again point out that Moon Cancer's very first post in the game was to vote for Saber to get the master and also listed Berserker and both as Assassin scummy

I am suspicious of Saber on his own, I was voting for him until Berserker specifically told me to move to Moon Cancer -- but a Saber flip would also shed light on the scum team's plans for the master.

VOTE: Saber

[Servant Ruler]

VOTE: ruler

[Servant Ruler]

That post is in regards to reading ehat came before me and in between times I'm not around. I can get opinions from what happens when I am around

[Servant Ruler]

For what reason?

I want to see what type of game state we are actually playing in. Specifically I want to know if Scum contested the Master at all or if they decided very early that none of them would be trying for it.

Here are all the things I didn't like about Saber:

I want to be the master. My strength is in the early game and I don't particularly like my noble phantasm.

I don't think this is a sensible description of their NP, which as I understand is some kind of thread silencer that prevents a slot from talking? I don't see the use of it. Them trying to over-sell it as the best thing since sliced bread because it can shut down toxic 1v1s is just ???? to me. We can do the same thing by just threatening the toxic 1v1ers with a policy elim if it ever becomes too much. We don't need a NP activation, if anything this NP is utterly useless and I have no idea why they would think it's around the same power level as a cop shot.

Using mine right away is better than using it later.

This is the line that I originally liked from Saber, I thought the thinking about when to use the NP felt town to me.

However now that Saber has claimed and their NP is like pretty useless, I don't see why Saber would want to

use it right away.

I find it really difficult to believe they were excited about using this NP.

Also another important thing is being a thread leader/town leader. something that the IC really has to do a good job on to boost our odds. From Saber's play throughout the game, I just don't believe they are qualified to be in this position and I don't see why they would volunteer.

This all feels like you scum read them because their mindset and beliefs starkly contrast your own. Even keeping that in mind they are tellimg the truth of at least their identity so it stands to reason that they are telling the truth about other things even if you dont understand their truth.

This sounds like a question of sabers genuiness and imo if they dont agree with the IC they have the right to do what they want.

Opposing the IC rings +town anyway because theres no other point in going against thr IC other than to attempt to shade them and i don't see any indication of that in their posts.

[Servant Ruler]

Also if saber truly did believe ehat they have stated in the thread regarding wanting the master and in their mind they beleived they were doing the right thing, then their actions make sense

[Servant Ruler]

To add to 1514 from Caster, I would again point out that Moon Cancer's very first post in the game was to vote for Saber to get the master and also listed Berserker and both as Assassin scummy

And if they had gotten chosen this would have stuck out if they no longer existed in the actual game thread.

Everyone who pushed for saber would have been looked at closer so if scum could get town to make this push, why wouldn't they.

Also why wouldn't they opt to wait before making the push under this pretense

[Servant Archer]

VOTE: ruler

wut?

This all feels like you scum read them because their mindset and beliefs starkly contrast your own. Even keeping that in mind they are tellimg the truth of at least their identity so it stands to reason that they are telling the truth about other things even if you dont understand their truth.

This sounds like a question of sabers genuiness and imo if they dont agree with the IC they have the right to do what they want.

Opposing the IC rings +town anyway because theres no other point in going against thr IC other than to attempt to shade them and i don't see any indication of that in their posts.

I think that you misunderstood.

In Day 0 Saber campaigned to receive the master for himself -- I did not see anything about him "opposing the IC" after the fact - he has actually been pretty vocal about following Berserker.

Do you think that no member of the scum team tried to get the master Day 0?

[Servant Archer]

Also if saber truly did believe ehat they have stated in the thread regarding wanting the master and in their mind they beleived they were doing the right thing, then their actions make sense

You know, if we believe everything that everyone says, it turns out that there just is not any scum left in this game.

I think it is a mod error that it has not already been called a victory

[Servant Ruler]

I'm not sure but if scum did campaign for it I would look to assassin firdt I think.

The first few pages had Saber campaign it immediately and only backed down when it was obvious that they weren't gojnf to be the choice

I think the way Saber went about it wasn't very graceful and if scum debated who should get it, if they decided that someone on the team shouls get it, scum wouldnt be so clumsy about it nor would come right oht the gate with jt

Pedit: I never said beleive everyone. What i said is that Saber has marks of genuineness and I believe saber is truthclaimjng servant name