FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Lancer]

Are those the only two options?

[Servant Lancer]

saber is being voted for the incongruity between their claim and asserted role strength during the master selection phase, right? I see how that's scummy, but I kinda think there's also room for doubt since iirc there's some sort of thing where roles get upgraded if chosen for master? I don't think I quite get that whole deal yet

Cabd has a post where he says that Scum NP's get upgraded if one of them gets a master.

For a town player, all that happens is that their NP gets fully charged.

--------------

Saber's NP is that he can limit the posting of one player. ---

With which he came out, guns blazing, claiming that he had "one of the strongest NPs in the game" and that we should give him the master, and that the scum team would be really afraid of giving him the master. He openly said that his NP was as good (if not better) then a cop result.

I find it hard to see a town player playing this way. When I look at his campaign, it really, really feels to me like the campaign the scum team would make Already, went into that before:

Saber

Saber's campaign for the master feels like the exact campaign a cautious scum team would make. Like I can imagine the planning conversation

Spoiler:

"How can we get the master"
"Well, one of us can claim we have an insanely powerful NP"

"But wait, what happens if I don't get chosen, won't they expect me to do something amazing later in the game?"

"I know, just say that it is only good in the early game"
"So okay, how does this sound:

My NP is one of the strongest in the game, if used correctly and early. It's totally weaksauce if used late and arguably detrimental.

"ahh, that's perfect."

I also stand by what I said in 213 -- Saber's worry there makes no sense coming from town. When would you ever be worried about this? ---I don't think town ever is, but it feels similar to what I bolded in the hypothetical conversation. Also, not a fan of their "town read everyone" read list 472

If a town Master is selected, the town Master + servant is revealed as an innocent child and becomes unkillable by ANY means until day two has passed.

The servant in that slot will additionally have their role modified to account for the additional support they now have

. Day 1 will become an double-elimination day and last for 240 hours (10 days) instead of 168 hours (7 days). (The first elimination WILL reset the vote count)

I have bolded the part that I'm referring to

I assumed that was to include the fact that they were IC'ed, and the fact that they gained the ability to give out * to other players.

So I think it is safe to assume that Saber's NP does not gain anything extra from getting the master; they clearly would have mentioned it when they explained why they fought for the master

I mean, also, looking at my own PM - it does not indicate any changes that would occur from getting the master.

just ftr - I believe this language was left over from the first game so it's a bit confusing. I'm pretty sure it goes like this:

scum gets master -> the upgrade is that all scum NPs gain double charge every day
town gets master -> the upgrade is that town IC gets full NP charge and can give out 1 * to two people

as you said, I don't believe there are any role-specific upgrades the same way that there were in game 1.

[Servant Beast]

I'm not super confident that saber will flip scum either, but I highly prefer saber elim over foreigner.

Foreigner appeared to be the designated scum counterwagon, and shouldn't be on the table after moon cancer scumflip.

I disagree.

[Servant Lancer]

why? you haven't mentioned scumreading them until now as far as I recall.

[Servant Beast]

why? you haven't mentioned scumreading them until now as far as I recall.

It's been awhile, but no, I've been scum reading them for the most part. I moved my vote off when Berserker asked for Saber or Moon, I voted Saber for the aforementioned wrong reasons.

[Servant Saber]

I'll be VLA until deadline so if I am the lim so be it.

[Servant Alter Ego]

No reads?

[Servant Lancer]

why? you haven't mentioned scumreading them until now as far as I recall.

It's been awhile, but no, I've been scum reading them for the most part. I moved my vote off when Berserker asked for Saber or Moon, I voted Saber for the aforementioned wrong reasons.

okay can you explain why you are scumreading them?

[Servant Beast]

VOTE: Foreigner

Right after i gave correct call, i am being voted. Scum is trying to prevent us from talking about moon by coordinating few votes against me. People always talk about topic, which recently got few votes normally it would be moon but scum gave counter measure.

Why would timing be so perfect? In case i am being pushed by townies, they reason of me being voted would have to be my vote on Moon. Still townies would say something like 'Foreigner votes is scummy' during vote. Naked votes are votes for overall image, so they are coming right now because people needed to vote me.

This is a self-serving narrative. Though yeah, I kind of felt like your vote was a bus.

Well, yeah. I had an agenda. I thought Saber was town and had a powerful ability that would be put to good use. I also could empathize with their approach to trying to get the town master slot.
I don't get why you think people are throwing town reads around like candy. It's more like we just don't really explain ourselves. I do that in part because it can put the scum team off balance (or, I'm just scum and have no reasons, teehee)

Rider's post is interesting but need to think on it a lot more to determine if that's coming from town or scum. I'm allergic to long form, well thought out posts. For example I can't tell if Rider is truly weighing my posts and intentions, or going back and forth and just waiting to see where the wind blows before settling down.

As for foreigner, I've just looked at their posts and I find it odd how evenly distributed their addresses to other players are, the general lack of nuance and a confidence that doesn't make sense to me.

As for foreigner, I've just looked at their posts and I find it odd how evenly distributed their addresses to other players are, the general lack of nuance and a confidence that doesn't make sense to me.

If you are not confident then you won't get analyzable reactions. People are more AI when under pressure.

I'm not sold that this is the real reason.

You're arguing that foreigner's comment was frustration related and not scum related while voting moon cancer.

No. Archer said Foreigner's comment was designed to make us question Berserker's judgement. I disagree and believe he made that comment because he may have been frustrated with the way his scumread (Caster) was being treated by Berserker. 801 was also a direct response to my 799, which was me questioning his 798.

Nowhere did I mention whether I believed that comment was town- or scum-motivated

.

I also happen to be voting Moon Cancer. The two are unrelated.

If I really wanted to defend someone, I would actually

defend

them.

I don't really think you can have two unrelated opinions about a player in a mafia game. Since it's pretty closely intertwined. But the wording isn't quite there for a clear argument that foreigner is town, so I'm wrong in that aspect.

Place me in the camp where 1v1 toxicity isn't actually a good reason to run for Master. Toxic 1v1's can and do resolve. Sometimes for the better sometimes for the worse.

Also, pretty sure that some scum roles would have their abilities adjusted just because the designer rarely has every possible combination in mind for balance. They likely tweeked town roles and scum roles for balance post alignment roll.

Eh, I still really think Foreigner is scum.

The last, and only, specific reason to scumread Alter came from post 238. I don't find it convincing. How has that read matured over time and what specific posts can you point to as to support your conclusions?

That read has not changed. It is fully based on the early posts on Alter Ego having more evasive words in their posts than any normal townie. And no post of Alter Ego after that time has caused me to reconsider.

I think we have gotten everything we could have before the first elimination. We should move on.

Wasn’t I pretty evasive in my answers too? What’s the difference between alter and I in terms of this?

I’d still rather go for foreigner I think. Rather than saber. I Don’t like thinking this way, but I have doubt there because they qualify for the too weird to be scum read. I should probably think more deeply about this.

As is ruler missing from the wagon, so probably at least 1+ scum bussing.

There is some comfort that foreigner, rider, and Avenger aren't on the wagon. But I suspect at least one of those players is town and someone slipped the lenient net.

I'm pretty much where Archer is at in terms of where I wanna vote.

Foreigner I suspect is using their anemic bus to shore themselves up. But even with that, they're being anemic.

I'm not super confident that saber will flip scum either, but I highly prefer saber elim over foreigner.

Foreigner appeared to be the designated scum counterwagon, and shouldn't be on the table after moon cancer scumflip.

I disagree.

[Servant Lancer]

As for foreigner, I've just looked at their posts and I find it odd how evenly distributed their addresses to other players are, the general lack of nuance and a confidence that doesn't make sense to me.

This is the only thing you've said that actually describes why you scumread Foreigner

is there anything else?

[Servant Beast]

I also said it looked like they were bus voting and that they were using the cred from the bus to survive.

[Servant Lancer]

okay I mean you haven't explained why you think that is, because literally anyone voting can be called a bus vote if you don't give reasons

[Servant Beast]

Did you ever substantiate what about Moon cancer's vote was uniquely townie and unlikely to come from scum?

[Servant Lancer]

I scumread moon cancer the entire game...

[Servant Lancer]

what makes you think foreigner was bussing?

[Servant Beast]

Why do I keep calling moon cancer foreigner? I meant Foreigner. what about Foreigner's posts was uniquely townie? In regards to the voting or in regards to their play in general? The best I can say about it was that they were pretty self-aware and they created some unique arguments to cover themselves, but I never really got the feeling it had additional motivation.

Their timing mainly, the strength of their arguments. Their arguments after the flip. Their interest in shading some players for infractions on general rules while ignoring my own infractions.

[Servant Lancer]

a large part of it is foreigner being wagoned as moon cancer was getting wagoned

the ISO is honestly not as towny as I thought, but I still think that foreigner being the counterwagon to moon cancer means it's unlikely that foreigner also flips scum. I don't really think it makes much sense for moon cancer to jump onto a scum!foreigner counterwagon to themselves. Avenger and foreigner are 99.9999% not scum together, and Avenger voting foreigner while the moon cancer wagon was building and then gladiating foreigner when the moon cancer was building the second time is scum-indicative for avenger in my opinion. Foreigner was also low enough in the general readslists that I don't think he would be the designated deepwolf and decide to hardbus a scumbuddy who seems to be pretty powerful. On review I don't think this means Foreigner is 100% town, but I think I feel more comfortable eliminating saber. idk.

can you explain what you mean by timing and arguments after the flip? which infractions did you make that they didn't comment on, and why do you think that's AI?

[Servant Archer]

1616 makes me want to yeet Avenger or Foreigner > Saber tbh

I think that a scum flip on either would clear the other, so figuring out which one is actually scum in that 1v1 seems useful

[Cabd]

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to burn a servant.

Saber (5): Beast, Rider, Archer, Assassin, Caster
Avenger (2): Shielder, Foreigner
Caster (1): Alter Ego
Ruler (1): Lancer
Lancer (1): Ruler

Deadline: (expired on 2021-07-12 00:17:51)

Page Usage: 33/42

[Servant Lancer]

what about my post convinced you?

[Servant Alter Ego]

VOTE: Saber

Looks like they're not going to say anything more.

[Servant Archer]

I almost just slipped my main

Typed out my whole response, and was about to hit send -- and realized.

I was like half a second away from being out of this game

what about my post convinced you?

Mainly the "Avenger and foreigner are 99.9999% not scum together" line.

While obvious as soon as you said it / I thought about it -- I had mainly been thinking about each of them in terms of "Could they be partners with Moon Cancer"

And now, I am realizing that shooting in there, in addition to shooting one of my scum reads, it has the potential of clearing up an otherwise scummy slot.

Although, I would say that we have reached a point where that thought came a little too late, and we should just move on with Saber, who is at E-1

[Servant Archer]

I'll be VLA until deadline so if I am the lim so be it.

With this coming from Saber, I don't know that there is a big reason to hold off on the hammer

UNVOTE:

If someone else puts it back at E-1, I can just be the person who hammers every wagon this game

[Servant Shielder]

VOTE: Saber

So be it

[Servant Archer]

This is in remembrance of our OG town leader, notscience

VOTE: Saber

COBRA KAAAAAAI

Spoiler:

And if it is wrong, I blame you for abandoning us