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Post Post #1500 (ISO) » Fri Jul 09, 2021 5:51 pm

Post by ssbm_Kyouko »

Consider this also though: Tracker was not obscured yesterDay at the end because scum wanted to know who won it. This points to town!Marci because the only town!player that could outbid Mastina was Marci. By not obscuring, they could see clearly who won Tracker.

If we consider that S_S is town here then maybe scum didn't believe S_S holstered the first Night and thought he was out of shots. Otherwise they should have obscured tracker and 50-50ed between Mastina/Marci so that S_S would have a lower chance of Watching the correct target. Was that post by S&M about the jailkeeper continuing to protect Marci a slip? did scumteam of S&M/Gamma think Mastina would be able to jail again so they bought hitman and killed Mastina with it?
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Post Post #1501 (ISO) » Fri Jul 09, 2021 6:11 pm

Post by ssbm_Kyouko »

i think Gamma and S&M just double bussed D1. VOTE: Gamma
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Post Post #1502 (ISO) » Fri Jul 09, 2021 6:13 pm

Post by ssbm_Kyouko »

I think also they tried to get me limmed a couple of times since I was MO and they just couldn't pull it off. Nobody else bit I think.
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Post Post #1503 (ISO) » Fri Jul 09, 2021 6:54 pm

Post by Gypyx »

votecount 5.1Gamma Emerald (4) : Marcistar - Something_Smart - Smoke And Mirrors - ssbm_Kyouko
Smoke and Mirrors (0)
ssbm_Kyouko (1) Gamma Emerald
Something_Smart (0)
imaginality (0)
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not voting (1) - imaginality

day 5 ends in (expired on 2021-07-12 09:42:30)


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Post Post #1504 (ISO) » Fri Jul 09, 2021 7:06 pm

Post by ssbm_Kyouko »

1-shot cop [redacted] - Distance or Flea, likely Distance. Scum thought Flea would cop S&M so aimed there.
2-shot Doctor - 250 - Flea?
1-shot Roleblocker - 410 - Imaginality
1-shot Hitman - 426 - Kyouko

1-shot AD - 300 - S&M
2-shot AD - 450 - CB?
2-shot Gravedigger - 225 - Marcistar
2-shot Watcher - 500 - S_S

1-Shot Godfather - 499 - Gamma
1-Shot Tracker - 200 - S&M
2-shot Ninja - 500 - VFP
1-Shot JK - [redacted] (201-299 by claim, likely 300 based on next day's bids) - Mastina

2-Shot Tracker - 200 - Mastina
1-Shot Neighborizer - 90 - Imaginality/Gamma/S_S (Can be Gamma or S_S if Imaginality is the one with Hitman, but this is unnecessary because Hitman is only needed to avoid town!Imaginality's roleblock, and could otherwise have outbid on tracker and redacted Hitman)
2-shot Neighborizer - 0
2-shot Hitman - Gamma/Marci/S_S (Only Marci if she is scum with S_S. I don't think there is a world where Marci and S_S team chooses for Marci to buy both Watcher and Gravedigger on the same day as both ADs and let town get both ADs. She was widely TRed but it's a risky play. If they did take this risk though, S_S can still have Hitman, but unlikely that scum!S_S fakes a guilty on town!Gamma while holding Hitman when town!Imaginality is still around)

Hitman was only needed because Imaginality still has roleblocker. Aside from that, I TR him by play and am clearing him, leaving the last 4: Gamma, S_S, Marci, and S&M

There is assuredly scum in Gamma, S_S. Gamma's plausible partner is S&M and S_S's plausible partner is Marci.

Possible Teams
{Gamma, S_S} - If this is the case then S_S and Gamma are probably swapped in what they purchased and S_S is now bussing while holding Hitman so that he can get a false inno if he is roleblocked toNight. This I don't see as very likely. No need to fake a guilty on your partner when you can fake it on some other town.
{Gamma, S&M} - This one I think is the most likely. I've scumread both of them at various points throughout the game. I was convinced to change my mind on S&M eventually, and if Gamma bought Hitman he can still be with anyone else, but I think S&M was just bullshitting a case on me D2 and never satisfactorily explained themselves. I had to let it go because nobody would listen and a lot of people were saying it was TvT, but I'm not entirely convinced now. I feel like whenever they would vote me, Gamma would follow suit, and possibly vice versa. Maybe I'm remembering wrong on the vice versa though. They also both push the {VFP, Imaginality, Kyouko} POE. S&M has Gamma as a high TR for being on the D1 wagon I think, but if you read Gamma's ISO there's no other reason to have him that high and there is never paranoia from S&M about him, despite it being there about Imaginality who was also on the D1 wagon.
{S_S, Marci} - Marci I TR by play mostly, occasionally having suspicions. However convenient it would be for S_S to claim dead cop!Distance has an Inno on his partner, I do not think it is necessary given how widely TRed Marci has been all game. I think I'm just seeing associations where there are none and Marci is conftown by cop inno which just leaves Gamma as the Hitman, unless S_S is bussing him and their claims are actually swapped. This is convoluted though and only makes sense if they have future information on the rolesand claims that are coming, so I don't think this is the case.
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Post Post #1505 (ISO) » Fri Jul 09, 2021 7:15 pm

Post by ssbm_Kyouko »

Gypyx replied to me. I can't quote him but you can all send him the same question I did to confirm if you like.

The question is along the lines of:

what happens in this situation?
X tracks Y
Y kills Z
W jails Z
Does X receive 'no result' or 'Y visits Z' (I actually asked him if 'Y didn't go anywhere' because I didn't go anywhere all game and that is what was on my mind)

And Gypyx told me X would see Y visiting Z. But S&M said I didn't go anywhere/

S&M lied about their soft Inno (not hard because there are still 2 scum alive) on me being an "inno" based on Marci being jailed by Mastina the night S&M saw me go nowhere.
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Post Post #1506 (ISO) » Fri Jul 09, 2021 7:16 pm

Post by ssbm_Kyouko »

Quick End


I think this is solved
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Post Post #1507 (ISO) » Fri Jul 09, 2021 9:34 pm

Post by imaginality »

Why does S&M fake a soft inno on you in that scenario?
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Post Post #1508 (ISO) » Fri Jul 09, 2021 10:26 pm

Post by imaginality »

Honestly I feel like the unredacted 500 watcher bid D2, the unredacted 301 hitman bid D4, and the watcher guilty on Gamma today, is just too convenient. I don't think Gamma scum sets things up like that. S&M's attempt to shut off debate at the start of today also rubs me wrong but that might be wrong town.

VOTE: Something_Smart
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Post Post #1509 (ISO) » Fri Jul 09, 2021 10:50 pm

Post by imaginality »

Like this scenario of watcher fake claiming a guilty was what I predicted in my PT last night. I was half expecting it to be on me though...

I think if town have watcher scum would have tried to NK watcher first rather than tracker. A watcher guilty is damning if they only saw one person visit. A tracker guilty could be passed off as PR use.

Ah you say, but Gamma has Godfather so he couldn't visit. True. So why would scum Gamma submit the NK when the scum buddy could do it?
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Post Post #1510 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 1:14 am

Post by imaginality »

I've been right on every elimination wagon so far (on Kitty, off cyrus, only on Cupcake to save myself, off VFP) and I back myself to be right about this one too.
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Post Post #1511 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 2:47 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1508, imaginality wrote:Honestly I feel like the unredacted 500 watcher bid D2, the unredacted 301 hitman bid D4, and the watcher guilty on Gamma today, is just too convenient. I don't think Gamma scum sets things up like that.
I mean, leaving the hitman unredacted makes sense to make it look like someone was framing Gamma, but why would I leave the watcher unredacted (and not redact anything!) if I were bidding on it as scum? It's not like I was already planning the Gamma frame, I couldn't have known that he would spend $499 on GF.

I think the lack of D2 redaction indicates that scum didn't win anything on D2 and wanted information about how much the roles went for. The lack of D4 redaction is harder to explain, but it could just be Gamma making a desperation play to lean into the "I was framed" angle.
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Post Post #1512 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 2:48 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1509, imaginality wrote:So why would scum Gamma submit the NK when the scum buddy could do it?
...because he has the hitman?
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Post Post #1513 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 2:49 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Also just because anyone getting seen visiting mastina would be in trouble if they were the only visit since the ninja is gone, even if they could give a plausible explanation for it. So it makes sense to send your scummiest member to make the kill (and the 301 indicates that, at the very least, they were okay with losing Gamma today since they must have noticed the connection).
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Post Post #1514 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 6:13 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

VOTE: Something_Smart
We're falling through space, you and me, clinging to the skin of this tiny little world, and if we let go...That's who I am.

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Post Post #1515 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:17 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 1501, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:i think Gamma and S&M just double bussed D1. VOTE: Gamma
If you’re actually town here, you’re probably never getting a paragon. I never ever kill Mastina here. But you’re probably Gamma’s buddy.
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We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
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Post Post #1516 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:20 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 1508, imaginality wrote:Honestly I feel like the unredacted 500 watcher bid D2, the unredacted 301 hitman bid D4, and the watcher guilty on Gamma today, is just too convenient. I don't think Gamma scum sets things up like that. S&M's attempt to shut off debate at the start of today also rubs me wrong but that might be wrong town.

VOTE: Something_Smart
You people are so bad at this. If we lose, don’t blame me.

I still think Kitty/Gamma/Kyouku and even if you bungle this, I still want props for getting this right,
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
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Post Post #1517 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:21 am

Post by Smoke and Mirrors »

In post 1515, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 1501, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:i think Gamma and S&M just double bussed D1. VOTE: Gamma
If you’re actually town here, you’re probably never getting a paragon. I never ever kill Mastina here. But you’re probably Gamma’s buddy.
In post 1516, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 1508, imaginality wrote:Honestly I feel like the unredacted 500 watcher bid D2, the unredacted 301 hitman bid D4, and the watcher guilty on Gamma today, is just too convenient. I don't think Gamma scum sets things up like that. S&M's attempt to shut off debate at the start of today also rubs me wrong but that might be wrong town.

VOTE: Something_Smart
You people are so bad at this. If we lose, don’t blame me.

I still think Kitty/Gamma/Kyouku and even if you bungle this, I still want props for getting this right,
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Post Post #1518 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:26 am

Post by Smoke and Mirrors »

In post 1506, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
Quick End


I think this is solved
If you’re not Gamma’s buddy then you have possibly the worst reads in any game ever.

Did you not read where Mastina who has tons and tons of meta on me - locktowned me? SS too. Both of those players as well as CB (who also has meta on me) correctly tr me.

So in a world where you’re actually town, I hope you feel really shitty post-game.
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Post Post #1519 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:33 am

Post by Smoke and Mirrors »

In post 1507, imaginality wrote:Why does S&M fake a soft inno on you in that scenario?
I obviously didn’t. I thought he was clear because I got the result that he didn’t go anywhere but after I asked Gypyx if If he visited Marci how that impacted my results, he said the inno is meaningless.

I’m locking it in Kitty/Gamma/Kyouku is the team, which means I got 2 scum right and please don’t gamethrow by voting out town.

Kyouku is bussing. That’s why he’s pushing me as Gamma buddy. No one in their right mind buys a double Kitty bus
.

Kitty just outed Gamma as his buddy and us as town.

Us/SS/Marci/you are town.
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Post Post #1520 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:36 am

Post by Smoke and Mirrors »

In post 406, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:While I'm at it I'll vote VFP. I feel like as the default candidate in a slow game working on plurality like this it's easy for as little as 1 scum to make town!Kitty go through easily.

I also like misty better than smoke/Imaginality at this point, and still am harboring suspicion about VFP's heal votes for MO early game.

VOTE: VFP

This puts him to 2, not sure what happens in a tie in plurality
Kyouku actively tried to save his buddy on D1 by trying to switch the wagon to VFP.
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Post Post #1521 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:41 am

Post by Smoke and Mirrors »

In post 1283, mastina wrote:
In post 1279, marcistar wrote:
mastina
, who do u think vfps partner would be?
I honestly don't know. It's not Smoke & Mirrors; it's not you.

From there, towniest to least townie, I would go:

Something_Smart ~= imaginality > ssbm >>> Gamma Emerald >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> VFP

But my hope is that we can eliminate VFP today, VFP flips scum, and imaginality can give us an extra elimination with his roleblock, or an extra conftown if not. (That said the presence of a hitman means that we may have trouble there. I'm hoping that the scum cannot pick up both the tracker and the hitman so that one goes to town and that town player can use it to ensure redundancy with imaginality.)
Obviously we know she was wrong on VFP but she has both us and Marci as locktown. which is why Kyouku has to be scum here. Why else would he be voting Gamma and calling me his buddy?

Kyouku knows that everyone else is town but him and Gamma obviously,
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Post Post #1522 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:43 am

Post by marcistar »

does gamma ever play this way as town? im lowkey convinced hes scum now-
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Post Post #1523 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:45 am

Post by Smoke and Mirrors »

In post 1505, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Gypyx replied to me. I can't quote him but you can all send him the same question I did to confirm if you like.

The question is along the lines of:

what happens in this situation?
X tracks Y
Y kills Z
W jails Z
Does X receive 'no result' or 'Y visits Z' (I actually asked him if 'Y didn't go anywhere' because I didn't go anywhere all game and that is what was on my mind)

And Gypyx told me X would see Y visiting Z. But S&M said I didn't go anywhere/

S&M lied about their soft Inno (not hard because there are still 2 scum alive) on me being an "inno" based on Marci being jailed by Mastina the night S&M saw me go nowhere.
In post 1506, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
Quick End


I think this is solved
In post 1507, imaginality wrote:Why does S&M fake a soft inno on you in that scenario?
If I had any doubts on Gamma!scum/SS!town, Kyouku confirmed it for me.
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Post Post #1524 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:49 am

Post by Smoke and Mirrors »

In post 1522, marcistar wrote:does gamma ever play this way as town? im lowkey convinced hes scum now-
The way he reacted to the guilty wasn’t townie and he only votes SS now because he realizes it’s suspicious not too. Imaginality is probably town fooled by him and Kyouku left no doubt by bussing him and pushing us as his buddy. That’s how I know. Kyouku wouldn’t be voting Gamma and pushing an inane double bus garbage if he either one were town.

Kyouku scumclaimed. It’s blatant scum distancing.
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