MT 2219: The Battle of Calculasia - Endgame

[Toogeloo]

Toog is still scum for his stated target choices.

I stand by them, especially since one flipped Mafia so far.

[Titus]

Overall, I think there's a decent chance Toog is town and that nom set him up. However, I can never be 100% certain of that. Toog could very well be in the situation where he's town but cannot live until lylo. I feel bad for Toog if he's town here.

Toog, can you give a reads list?

[Titus]

A50 feels really town.

Math, what does your gameboard look like if A50, Toog and DGB are town?

[Toogeloo]

Going into Night 2, I blocked Galron because of their low profile, which made them the best choice to submit a kill. Couple that with nom³'s flip, and my early Day 2 suspicions of Titus, both of whom said they town read Galron, I thought it would be a gut shot roleblock if Galron might be scum to stop a kill.

At this point in Day 2 after the past several pages the last few real days, I'd say both A50 and Titus are strong town reads based on their stances.

I am willing to put DGB third for now. Math is right that DGB absolutely would bus a partner into the ground, and there constant death tunnel on me isn't helping me read them any better, but for now I give them the benefit of the doubt.

Galron can be next. My blocking on them didn't stop a kill from happening. 50/50 they didn't make the shot as scum, or just aren't scum at all, so I'm willing to levy time here with a null town read.

Math has been doing nothing but setup analysis noise since replacing in, making a lot of logic leaps in the process. The fact that his only goal has been to eliminate one of A50, DGB, or myself isn't sitting well with me. The fact that his slot is triple replaced means nothing to me as it could be any multitude of reasons for revolving door. Null read.

My current PoE stands in Wheme, Xlos, and Jake, with the latter really only down here because I am not a fan of the troll player mentality. I'm willing to bet at least one scum in there, hope there's two.

[MathBlade]

A50 feels really town.

Math, what does your gameboard look like if A50, Toog and DGB are town?

You scum and I don’t know who with. I can’t really formulate a game board atm with it because I can’t formulate a setup that works with all of them town. So I would probably elim you out of sheer paranoia and if I am that far fucked it’s probably because of you and you’re one of the few scum who can get me that confused.

[MathBlade]

Going into Night 2, I blocked Galron because of their low profile, which made them the best choice to submit a kill. Couple that with nom³'s flip, and my early Day 2 suspicions of Titus, both of whom said they town read Galron, I thought it would be a gut shot roleblock if Galron might be scum to stop a kill.

At this point in Day 2 after the past several pages the last few real days, I'd say both A50 and Titus are strong town reads based on their stances.

I am willing to put DGB third for now. Math is right that DGB absolutely would bus a partner into the ground, and there constant death tunnel on me isn't helping me read them any better, but for now I give them the benefit of the doubt.

Galron can be next. My blocking on them didn't stop a kill from happening. 50/50 they didn't make the shot as scum, or just aren't scum at all, so I'm willing to levy time here with a null town read.

Math has been doing nothing but setup analysis noise since replacing in, making a lot of logic leaps in the process. The fact that his only goal has been to eliminate one of A50, DGB, or myself isn't sitting well with me. The fact that his slot is triple replaced means nothing to me as it could be any multitude of reasons for revolving door. Null read.

My current PoE stands in Wheme, Xlos, and Jake, with the latter really only down here because I am not a fan of the troll player mentality. I'm willing to bet at least one scum in there, hope there's two.

I go where the evidence lies not where is comfortable.

The fact that I can tell no one did my simple ask and try to balance this setup with the current claims (closest is Titus who disputes the vig but doesn’t try it otherwise) means that no one is actually listening to the argument made. If no one listens/interacts with the argument made I can’t change it.

If I can’t change it I can’t move away from something that is based in fact and logic to something that might as well be throwing a dart with a blindfold on and hoping to hit scum.

[MathBlade]

DrippingGoofball
Xlos
Almost50
Jake The Wolfie
Galron
MathBlade
Titus
WhemeStar
Toogeloo

I mean Titus’s question is pretty much absurd.
Look at the player list. Eliminate myself A50 DGB and Toog (about half the remaining game)

Xlos
Jake
Galron
Titus
Wheme

If that’s the world and all the other three are confirmed town we just win in any scenario since 9 alive atm. I start with Titus first in that case and if she’s scum then likely list would be Wheme Xlos Galron Jake and if she is town reverse it. But it would be literal stabs and guesses and with a town block that big scum can’t win so this world I kinda don’t care to invest much time into. 4 people never elimmed in a 9P game is all auto win if they’re all town.

[Ircher]

Day 3 VC #7

Xlos (3) (F-2): Almost50 (1133), Toogeloo (1134), Galron (1269)

Almost50 (2): Xlos (1135), MathBlade (1124)
Jake the Wolfie (1): Jake the Wolfie (1004)
Titus (0):
Toogeloo (2): DrippingGoofball (1074), Titus (1075)

Not Voting (1): WhemeStar

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to fade a player.

Deadlines

This phase will end no earlier than Thursday, July 8, 2021 9:45:00 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-08 21:45:00).
This phase will end no later than Wednesday, July 14, 2021 9:45 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-14 21:45:00).

Moderator Notes

1: If you have regular weekend V/LA, please inform me each week.
2: Please let me know if you have a different pronoun preference than listed below.

Pronoun Key

1: DrippingGoofball : It
3: Xlos : He/him
4: Almost50 : He/him
5: Jake the Wolfie : Any
6: Galron : He/him
7: MathBlade : He/him
9: Titus : She/her
10: WhemeStar : He/him
12: Toogeloo : They/them

[Titus]

A50 feels really town.

Math, what does your gameboard look like if A50, Toog and DGB are town?

You scum and I don’t know who with. I can’t really formulate a game board atm with it because I can’t formulate a setup that works with all of them town. So I would probably elim you out of sheer paranoia and if I am that far fucked it’s probably because of you and you’re one of the few scum who can get me that confused.

You are still refusing to take in other views into account. Your mere dismissal of me being scum when in this scenario, I would be moving to correct you makes no sense. Scum reading me based on what I am theoretically capable is not evidence. It's pride.

I'm looking to try and get some thought and analysis out of you and it's like pulling teeth.

[MathBlade]

I answered your question.

If Ircher himself came down on high and said all three of DGB, A50, and Toog (or any set of players) are all town then mathematically we cannot lose. No, scumreading you based on what your capable of is not evidence but your prior play is where you literally suggest Nom wasn’t fake claiming and dumb tells like that are common for you as scum.

Right now it’s 7v2 if you have 4 confirmed town that becomes
4v3v2.

Assume a miselim every single day and no vig for simplicity

3v2v2
2v1v2

We go into elo with two confirmed town and two scum.
Literally the scum have one person they can vote.
Assume we nab a scum.

1v1v1

Conf town still in second elo other two cross vote.

I think the major question is why you keep deflecting here Titus. Why do you not want to look where scum more than likely is?

Asking me to do theory work when I am pretty sure one of those few people is a vig and still hiding that from scum so they don’t know who to fuckin shoot is really really anti town. I am pretty sure I know who the vig is so I would rather not neon sign to scum “Hey kill here fresh PR”.

[MathBlade]

So answering your question to me is one of the most anti town things I can do:

Because A> It doesn’t match the gamestate
B> In almost any of those worlds if Xlos was town he would be dead.
C> I don’t wanna out the vig.

[Xlos]

Titus is just ignoring me ):

What am I ignoring?

If you want A50 dead, case him by play. We're sick of your mechanics conclusion. No one agrees with you. Consider the possibility you are wrong and scumhunt elsewhere and scumhunt everywhere by play or stop drowning the thread.

I want to talk to DGB but I feel like I can't.

Math's argument aside, how do you see A50 as town? I mean, considering 1204, what could his role possibly be for him to be town? I'm trying to look at him from a favorable light, but I lack the imagination to see a world where A50 is town, unless you believe all 3 claims. I'm genuinely curious what situation you're thinking of that's causing you to harbor more doubt about Toog than for A50.

Honestly at this point I feel like everybody's ignoring me, except maybe mathblade. People are accusing me of tunneling A50, and saying he seems innocent. It's like "A50 is innocent because mathblade is wrong." Everybody's looking into mathblade's argument and deconstructing it. Nobody has even made a single post trying to talk to me. So OF COURSE I am tunneling A50. I have

tried

to see them as innocent. I have

tried asking

why other people see them as innocent. I can't see how they are innocent, and nobody is willing to tell me what they think I'm missing. What do you expect of me here? If you think my argument is bad, go and say my argument sucks! If nobody disagrees with my argument, It's just going to make me more sure of it. People are now even saying "I think A50 is innocent" without even addressing anything I've asked!

I literally have shown that there is

no feasible world

where A50 is town. I said, "if my proof is wrong, please say so." In response, I get "XLOS IS TUNNELLING A50 IS TOWN." Probably nobody will not read this post because it is too long and proceed my my elim. So I will make a very short post after this with a summary of my current reasons to suspect them. Basically just repeating 1204, but it seems I'll just get ignored unless I say the same thing several times in increasingly angry tones...

But before I do that I should add another piece of evidence so it doesn't bloat the other post:

So there are Tests, Thoerems and Derivatives. The Derivatives are not AI. I guess there's no reason to expect that the rest of them are either. So all this flavor fishing/hunting whatever was for naught. But why would there be a flavor cop?

Because WHEME IS AN INFORMED SCUMSTER, and he was Informed of someone's FLAVOUR (Just as I was), with ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE: "flavour" is a "Role"

IF YOU KNOW THAT THEN WHY WERE YOU TRYING TO GET PEOPLE TO FLAVOR CLAIM DAY 2?!?!?!?

[Xlos]

If A50 is telling the truth: They are informed 764 of someone else's flavor and role 1249. They have a day chat with neighbor Wheme 175. And finally, they have a role that can somehow get a kill at the cost of their life. 1043. Despite knowing that flavor is role indicative, they have pushed for a mass flavor claim D2.
If A50 is lying: What are they lying about and why?

Regardless: They have lead the MURDERCAT wagon, been on the Flea wagon, been on MURDERCAT's dying scumlist, pushed a scum-beneficial mass flavor claim, and ignored my requests to clarify their role.

[WhemeStar]

Can you flesh out your objections a little bit more?

Everyone is on a crazy trip this game and it’s kind of insane

[MathBlade]

Lol minor nitpick they aren’t even deconstructing my argument Xlos.

They’re going “It’s math he’s wrong it’s too hard or setup speccy let’s move on and assume A50 is town”

You kinda have the math agrees with you curse.

Maybe I should just start lying in games then I get who I scumread elimmed /sarcastic

[WhemeStar]

I’m gonna full claim because a50 already claimed my flavor and basically my role and idc anymore

I’m root test and I’m an informed neighbor. I know A50’s flavor.

I assume his role is basically the same and that he knows my flavor

[WhemeStar]

I don’t believe his hider role or anything because I don’t have anything else

[WhemeStar]

A50 is ratio test

[Xlos]

I’m gonna full claim because a50 already claimed my flavor and basically my role and idc anymore

I’m root test and I’m an informed neighbor. I know A50’s flavor.

I assume his role is basically the same and that he knows my flavor

Do you have a daychat with A50?

[Xlos]

Lol minor nitpick they aren’t even deconstructing my argument Xlos.

They’re going “It’s math he’s wrong it’s too hard or setup speccy let’s move on and assume A50 is town”

You kinda have the math agrees with you curse.

Maybe I should just start lying in games then I get who I scumread elimmed /sarcastic

At least they're acknowledging that your argument exists enough to say that it's wrong

[WhemeStar]

I’m gonna full claim because a50 already claimed my flavor and basically my role and idc anymore

I’m root test and I’m an informed neighbor. I know A50’s flavor.

I assume his role is basically the same and that he knows my flavor

Do you have a daychat with A50?

It’s a neighborhood so day/night chat

[Xlos]

I’m gonna full claim because a50 already claimed my flavor and basically my role and idc anymore

I’m root test and I’m an informed neighbor. I know A50’s flavor.

I assume his role is basically the same and that he knows my flavor

Do you have a daychat with A50?

It’s a neighborhood so day/night chat

Thanks, I can at least confirm half of the story now. So the only question is if A50 is also a town killing role.
@A50: Since you are a power role, why did you claim so early in D1?
And I also don't understand the mass flavorclaim.

To be honest I think the same logic with nomnomnom could apply here: we could leave A50 alive, wait until tomorrow to see if he can make good on his promise, and if he's still alive, we know he's lying and can kill him them. The only problem is that A50's prereq for this is killing a confirmed town (me). So I can't be down with it. I can accept trying to annihilate me for this reason. Though it would be uncharacteristic of town considering the way this exact 'wait for them to expose themselves' situation went yesterday with nomnomnom. But ok, if you want to vote me for this reason and promise to annihilate A50 if they can't kill themselves in the night, go ahead. But if you're going to say A50 is town lean/null despite everything, please explain yourself.

[Titus]

What promise would we be waiting on A50 for?

[Xlos]

This offer:

I'll give you an offer you can't refuse: Let's do Xlos, and if that doesn't flip red I'll personally see to it that both I and DGB are dead tomorrow.

Though, now that I think about it, taking this ultimatum as the only option is dumb. A50 claims that he can kill someone else (at the cost of their own life). Surely the mafia don't have 2 NKs. So one option is to kill someone else today, and then if we don't see A50 dead tomorrow night, then we kill them. At that point you have all the evidence I've compiled + him failing to do something he's claimed.

So here's a counter-ultimatum: Dear A50, irrespective of who we decide to annihilate today, if you aren't dead tomorrow night, then we will kill you tomorrow in the day. If we can agree to those conditions, I might just take my vote off of you. As a member of town, it seems pretty stupid for you to only use your power conditional on me being flipped today. You should want to help regardless, no?

[DrippingGoofball]

role that can somehow get a kill at the cost of their life.

???