Newbie 2072: All Guns Blazing!! - Ended

[Pavowski]

Luke, it's a fair question. Why snip out that one part of that one sentence?

Mainly because his paragraph, as written, was dense and hard to read.

He spent like 5 lines in that paragraph to say "and scum luke would be worried that either he, or his partner would get eliminated from this" I feel like that was still evident in what I posted -- if it wasn't, my bad I guess

My point was that there was no reason for me to be worried about getting eliminated when he was suggesting we flip Not_Mafia first (and, in this theory, Not_Mafia was no longer my partner from his PoV)

I'm not gonna say it breaks this game open or anything -- we are talking about one sentence amidst pages of argument -- but it's shady to cut out a conditional that changes the entire tenor of what he was saying.

[Lukewarm]

I am engaging with the information! You are telling me that Scum!you would have been overjoyed to have been paired with your scum buddy D1, even if it was accidental????

I could have suggested you were scum with ArcAngel and there would have be reason for scum you to be upset by that!

There is a distinct difference between someone making a suggestion that a scum player is scum with their actual partner
and someone making a suggestion that a scum playing is scum with someone who is not their partner.

I post 393 to be further evidence that he has not really stop and engaged with the idea that scum!me would not be upset if you paired me with a townie ----
Like, this is the entire thing I have been trying to talk about respect to his read.

At this point, Val appears to be flailing. Checking out of the thread for a bit

[Val89]

There is a distinct difference between someone making a suggestion that a scum player is scum with their actual partner
and someone making a suggestion that a scum playing is scum with someone who is not their partner.

I post 393 to be further evidence that he has not really stop and engaged with the idea that scum!me would not be upset if you paired me with a townie

Let imagine we are back at post 1:

Hey guys! I think Lukewarm might be scum with Not_Mafia!

Hey Guys! I think Lukewarm might be scum with Zyla!

Hey guys! I think Lukewarm might be scum with Val89!

Hey guys! I think Lukewarm might be scum with ArcAngel!

Hey guys! I think Lukewarm might be scum with VFP, who isn't even playing this game!

Hey guys! I think the mod might have made a mistake with the setup this game, and it's just Lukewarm who is scum on his own!

Go on, tell me again which of those I could have gone for that scum!You would have been overjoyed with, and could have in no way led to anyone looking at the Lukewarm slot?

There is no difference in the slightest

, whether you've been paired with a townie, with your actual scum buddy or even a fictional character.

Again:

if there is any doubt it might be the start of a serious scumread, or might lead to one, then they want to start laying the narrative that it might be coming from scum early. I can better see why scum would react in such a manner than I can town - while a townie isn't all that worried about about a single player throwing some shade at them on page 2, if that shade causes attention to fall on an actual scum, even if it was accidental on the part of the person throwing it, then that could potentially lead to the scum team going into N1 having lost half their faction - potentially game losing for them.

[Lukewarm]

Open question for the thread, before I leave my house and will be away from my computer for several hours

Does Val's last 6 posts sound more like:

Scum frustration that a townie is pushing them for what they think is a bullshit reason (caught for the wrong reason)

A Townie, mad that their scumread is disagreeing with their scumcase on them, because, like....

[Val89]

Open Question for the thread; instead of answering.

Not a suprise.

[Val89]

Specifically the last six posts, eh? Not just "last few posts"?

Let me go and have a look whats in the seventh you don't want people looking at.

That would be...post 388; the very post that led Pav to say

I'm not gonna say it breaks this game open or anything -- we are talking about one sentence amidst pages of argument -- but it's shady to cut out a conditional that changes the entire tenor of what he was saying.

Best not have town look at that, I guess.

[marcistar]

val

is ur read on alstro still the same as in 219?

I've literally no idea what Zyla has done to deserve sitting at E-2 though. Two to the votes seem to be 'Zyla's coasting', and I've already explained why I think that could be fairly applied to a lot of players in this game.

who would you rather be voted, if zyla and luke weren't an option?
-
sure in your eyes it could apply to alot of people, but in my eyes i dont see quite as many people "coasting" i have no reason to think zylas town rn.

Open question for the thread, before I leave my house and will be away from my computer for several hours

Does Val's last 6 posts sound more like:

Scum frustration that a townie is pushing them for what they think is a bullshit reason (caught for the wrong reason)

A Townie, mad that their scumread is disagreeing with their scumcase on them, because, like....

cant tell, it all makes me confused

[alstroemerial]

Regarding 381: This is fair, and is generally spelling out what I was trying to explain earlier:

I haven't seen a confirmed scum!Val yet, but I'm getting a really different vibe than 2068. It could in part be that Val didn't get as much serious heat in 2068.

is there certain posts that feel this way for you..? or just all of them?

A little across the board but a few examples would be comparing 99, 115, and 217 to things like the following post #s in 2068: 72, 92, 161, and 202. I picked highlights from earlier in the 2068 ISO because that was when the Val vs James cross-tunnel was going on (should mention that, as Val said in this game, that was TvT). There just seems to be more general responses but focus on the tunnel in this game as opposed to pinpoint responses as part of a larger scumhunting in 2068. This could be more because in 2068, Val was more the aggressor while he's more the defender in this game.

I think the main thing is the difference in the level of targeted focus.

I've literally no idea what Zyla has done to deserve sitting at E-2 though. Two to the votes seem to be 'Zyla's coasting', and I've already explained why I think that could be fairly applied to a lot of players in this game. Umluat justified his vote in his 199 by saying "140 -- another tell here: explicitly saying "I'm unvoting because it's not RVS" as if RVS were a formalized game phase is something that more often comes from scum"; noting first that I'm not sure why he describes it as "another tell" given I can't see anything being described as a tell; I've also no idea what the issue is - scum more often treat the Random Voting Stage as a phase of the game?? I imagine there are plenty of players who think that; me among them. Luke linked an article explaining the theory on it earlier.

Disagree -- I think it's more than just coasting and (debatably, because of RL stuff) is still suspicious. Also, part of the point of the RVS article is that it is dangerous to treat RVS as a distinct phase because it makes it easier to throw out that early stuff as "haha I was being so random xD" as opposed to a real part of the core game that we can get information from. I also think this is worth pursuing because while I'm not sold, I do think it is more likely than not that this is TvT so we might as well spend a few RL days exploring other options. Luke's snip of 99 does raise questions. While I do see his argument that the original post was dense, cutting out one sentence isn't going to change it so dramatically while also interrupting the flow. So, in short, I think it's worth noting, but I would still rather talk with/about Zyla/Portia/Not_Mafia for a bit just so this doesn't take up 95% of our day 1.

[Val89]

val is ur read on alstro still the same as in 219?

Honestly, I'm starting to wonder more and more as the thread wears on. I was able to pick out a clear and obvious townvibe from the last game that I've just not found in this one. They were basically my pick for MVP last game; and I'm not sure what Alstro's done here. This is more gut level than anything, which is why I've not been in any rush to come out and say it.

who would you rather be voted, if zyla and luke weren't an option?

I may well be a lone voice here, but I've found a fair bit not to like about Umlauts post - and I haven't really been all that satisfied by the response. I'm not sure it's not a suprise that if you can't see why Luke is obvscum here, then I would rather my other scumread was getting voted, but there is such a gulf between the two I am in no rush to move my vote.

[Zyla]

Please explain the difference between not liking it [and not] finding it useful. To me they confirm the same idea.

And there was nothing about the post I called out as scummy. Rather it’s two surface ideas that don’t cohere. And the willingness to post both in one spelled a lack of self [awareness]. Do you disagree?

I don't particularly like the Luke/Val 1v1, it's been messy and I feel like it's gone on a bit too long, with them focusing too little on players outside of each other. I find it

useful

because it's allowed me to decide that there's most likely at least one scum there.
I would think the fact that it causes you to think that's there's scum in [Luke, Val] would mean it was useful, whether or not you liked it

[Zyla]

If I were voting seriously at this point, I'd be voting Lukewarm

Has this changed with more information? If it's Luke or Val today, would you still pick Luke?

Still waiting for Not_Mafia to respond to this btw

[Val89]

I would think the fact that it causes you to think that's there's scum in [Luke, Val] would mean it was useful, whether or not you liked it

Amen to that!

[Zyla]

As I mentioned a few posts ago, I think Zyla is coasting, as I don't see a lot of substance out of her posts and not a lot of evidence of hunting or analysis of the game.

I thought that the post for almost everyone was pretty decent work on my end, although apparently I missed doing yours somehow.
I gave clear reads, clarified positions on a couple things, asked questions when I had them, overall I'm not sure what I'm missing in your eyes

[Zyla]

Compiled Reads list for ease of reference

Alstro - Town Lean - 255
Pav - Slight Town Lean -

Seems to be genuinely trying to sort

Marci - Null - 256
Not_Mafia - Null - 257
Umlaut - Null - 296

Portia - Null Scum - 264

One probable Scum in

Luke - Null Town
Val - Null Scum

Luke has definitely not been playing up to what I've seen before, but page 15, it seemed like he was trying to move away from the 1v1 and interact with the thread as a whole, but Val was dragging him back in

[alstroemerial]

Umlaut

, can you answer the below when you get the chance? I'm very null on Zyla right now because I've seen some things that give me pause, but I actually liked the below cited posts and those were among those that had been making me change my read. Also, if anyone who is voting Zyla (Marci, Umlaut, Pav) is at the point of "I really think Zyla is scum" as opposed to "I want to pressure Zyla" I would be curious to hear a case.

Zyla's 121 and 126 do nothing for me

Do you mean this in an "I don't get any read from this" way or a "this doesn't have sufficient content and thus is suspicious" way? I actually liked those two posts personally so I'd be curious to hear disagreement if you do. Based on your comment on 140, it seems like a scum lean, which makes me think you disagree about 121 and 126.

I like Umlaut's 199 as a way to catch up after VLA and give a lot of takes. 201 also basically answers my above question but I'd like some more clarification on why 121 and 126 are scummy. As you saw in my earlier posts I've been considering Zyla for a bit, but those posts actually made me start to change my mind.

Also,

Portia

, any update on the below?

He means me; my username is a mashup of my actual name and one of my favorite movies, The Big Lebowski

Thanks, my friends say I'm not the most cultured when it comes to movies. In that case, Portia, since Pav/Leb owski has posted a lot more since you did 168, did you have any progress in sorting?

I still don't like that Portia hasn't done much despite being around -- when Luke pointed it out, he got it wrong in saying "zero" reads instead of "one", and since then people have been like "yeah Portia did give a read and Luke was wrong so we need to chill". But since then, Portia has been around but besides 168 hasn't added a ton more. As I said earlier, I don't like the "sidelines" comment because, as Portia says in 263, keeping the thread active is good.

We're getting close to the prod point on Not_Mafia, with the only post in the last few days being 194, which is almost comical now in its irony.

[Pavowski]

We're getting close to the prod point on Not_Mafia, with the only post in the last few days being 194, which is almost comical now in its irony.

Portia's approaching prod status as well, for that matter

[Pavowski]

Compiled Reads list for ease of reference

Alstro - Town Lean - 255
Pav - Slight Town Lean -

Seems to be genuinely trying to sort

Marci - Null - 256
Not_Mafia - Null - 257
Umlaut - Null - 296

Portia - Null Scum - 264

One probable Scum in

Luke - Null Town
Val - Null Scum

Luke has definitely not been playing up to what I've seen before, but page 15, it seemed like he was trying to move away from the 1v1 and interact with the thread as a whole, but Val was dragging him back in

So, gth, if you had to vote Luke or Val, it'd be Val?

[Zyla]

Yeah

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: Pukewarm

[Zyla]

VOTE: Pukewarm

What's your reasoning behind this?

[alstroemerial]

What Zyla said but I’d be lying if I said that entrance didn’t elicit a small chuckle

[Lukewarm]

Not to be the "answering questions directed at other people guy," but I know Not_Mafia is a member of the "dislikes wall posts" crowd, and I have made a lot of them

@Not_Mafia, do you actually think I am scum, or are you just not liking my posting habits

[Lukewarm]

Just like, self reflecting on this game, and I am coming to the conclusion that my biggest flaw in my town-game is lacking in the ability to explain my scum reads in a digestible / convincing way, and it has been a recurring theme.

Spoiler: Open 812

I was CONVINCED that Unwnd was scum, and I tried repeatedly to make the case for it to Ffery, who was an IC that game, but I just could not explain it in a way that convinced her. I eventually gave up, and we lost that game in Elo to scum Unwnd

I lost this game because I could not convince ffery that Unwnd was scum

Spoiler: Micro 1010

I made this whole case on what scum!Bingle was doing day 1, basically he tanked himself / purposefully got himself eliminated to save his partner. At first, I thought he saved Hopkirk (and was really loud about it). I later realized that he had actually saved 2 people that day: Hoplrk and Vanders.

So I made a big deal that the last scum was inside [hopkirk, vanders], and said repeatedly that we just needed to kill both of them to win... but I could not convince anyone. Vanders killed me the night before elo, and then town lost that game by voting Guilty Lion

Bingle later came back and confirmed that I was right in my analysis of what he was doing

I lost this game because I could not convince people that I had figured out what Bingle was doing

Spoiler: Newbie 2065

Most people got on board for T3, but mainly because he had a TERRIBLE reaction to me accusing him. I tried pretty hard to lead the thread to a Zyla elim, and that was like pulling teeth.

I had just lead the town to a Day 1 scum elim, but no one wanted to follow me on Zyla day 2. (Except my mason partner, all he wanted to do all game was sheep my reads lmao)

But like no one else seemed particularly convinced by my points, and instead like the whole lobby went the other way, and ran Egix up to E-1. Hell, even Egix was like "nah, Zyla is just town here." I could not convince anyone. It was not until Egix himself acted really townie right before his hammer, that people finally decided to go with Zyla.

I think I am generally pretty good at getting near universally town read.
I feel like my reads are generally better then average.
But then, despite being town read, I feel like it is a STRUGGLE to get people to see what I see

And it is honestly pretty frustrating.

That is the motivation behind those posts I made before btw. The ones that people said was me "begging for votes" --245 / 250 -- it is more like just the frustration of apparently being so unable to convince people in several of my games. And in this game, it was even more so. In the other games, I was mostly playing with people who had never played with me before, but then, in this one its like, half this lobby should have had a decent impression of my scum hunting, but even then... nope.

I am still very, very sure that Val is scum. But I am tired of trying to convince people of it. My vote will be there til the end of the day, and even then will only move if it is needed to avoid a no elim for the day.

Spoiler:

I get the feeling that maybe I should just take a page out of Not_Mafia's standard town play, and not actually scum case people. Just point that the scummiest person in the room and say "_____ is scum" and drop a vote. From what I have seen, that is more likely to get people to take heed then what ever it is I have been doing in my games. :/

[Umlaut]

Still pretty busy with unpacking and sorting out my new place this weekend but I saw I was asked a question so I'll answer it.

Umlaut

, can you answer the below when you get the chance? I'm very null on Zyla right now because I've seen some things that give me pause, but I actually liked the below cited posts and those were among those that had been making me change my read. Also, if anyone who is voting Zyla (Marci, Umlaut, Pav) is at the point of "I really think Zyla is scum" as opposed to "I want to pressure Zyla" I would be curious to hear a case.

Zyla's 121 and 126 do nothing for me

Do you mean this in an "I don't get any read from this" way or a "this doesn't have sufficient content and thus is suspicious" way? I actually liked those two posts personally so I'd be curious to hear disagreement if you do. Based on your comment on 140, it seems like a scum lean, which makes me think you disagree about 121 and 126.

I like Umlaut's 199 as a way to catch up after VLA and give a lot of takes. 201 also basically answers my above question but I'd like some more clarification on why 121 and 126 are scummy. As you saw in my earlier posts I've been considering Zyla for a bit, but those posts actually made me start to change my mind.

I got a scumread for lack of any reason to townread, so I guess it was more the latter thing ("doesn't have sufficient content and thus is suspicious"). Reviewing these posts in more detail (I had to remind myself what they even said tbh):

Ah here we go -- I have my eye on Zyla a bit already because [ongoing games] but it's more of a lean than a read at this point

I'm going to say that I'm a little bit confused since we aren't in any games together. Since we can talk about 2068, which we were both in, does that do anything to help or harm me in your eyes?

Not meaningful content.

For the record on my part: I do not think Not_Mafia [...] should be the lim today

Why not? Sure we shouldn't eliminate him right now, as it's early in the day, but most people seem to agree that they're hard to read and would be an easy mis-elim, which I at least would rather do the most likely miselim on day 1 and let someone else contribute to the thread

Not

completely

empty but an easy thing to comment on and not town-indicative, and rang some "fake activity" bells in my head in that it's an easy low-risk thing to comment on and appear to be contributing.

Interesting choice of quote from Alstro's 73. Seems like this one would be the one actually relevant to the topic at hand:

As a result, Luke's response threw me off a bit because it seemed to be taking it completely at face value. So I wasn't sure if Luke was, like, playing along, or...?

Now hold on a second. If I'm reading this correctly, Luke was saying that Alstro was taking

you

seriously. That doesn't mean they were taking you RVS post seriously. (And yes, it's dressed up and entertaining, but it's still RVS) You both really seem to like taking what the other person is saying out of context

"You're both being silly" is an obvious point and an easy way to position oneself as the voice of reason.

Mainly because I don't want to put too much stock in what most people seem to agree when I've not played with him, and I don't think I've yet read a newbie game with him in it.

Early days, but I haven't yet seen anything to suggest he will be trouble, or any harder to read than anyone else in the game.

In the one I read, it seemed to be consistent with his normal (from the meta-reading I did out of curiosity) except for the fact that he doesn't do quickhammers in newbies

As for the second part, he's claimed himself that he's not voting seriously, which at least to me seems like an anti-town red flag (whether or not he's scum), what's your thought on that?

Also, my main thing was that you said flat out he wasn't the vote today; wouldn't you be willing to eliminate him if more information pointed to him being scummy?

The first two parts seem like easy observations and the question in the third is just weird and fake-seeming to me ("Would you be willing to eliminate someone if evidence says they are scum?" Is that really a question you need to ask?)

[ArcAngel9]

Vote Count 1-7

Portia :

alstroemerial

Pavowski :

alstroemerial :

Zyla :

marcistar,Umlaut, Pavowski (E-2)

Lukewarm :

Val89,

Val89 :

Portia, Lukewarm,

Not_Mafia :

,

Umlaut :

Not_Mafia,

marcistar :

Not Voting

: Zyla

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: July 16, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2021-07-16 12:50:00)

Mod Notes:

-