Newbie 2072: All Guns Blazing!! - Ended

[Lukewarm]

@Pav

please don't miss this

Spoiler:

Your style is a double edged sword. You make good arguments, sometimes excellent arguments, and I usually have a hard time disagreeing with much of what you post or how you read people. And I do *tend* to read you as town. But -- and maybe this is because I was on the receiving end of one of your pushes last game when I knew it was wrong -- I know you can use those arguments and reads as scum framing a townie just as well as you can as a townie reading scum. So while I find your reads insightful and maybe even correct, I take them with a hefty dose of salt; probably more salt than I take other players'.

tl;dr -- I think you're an excellent player, and that's why I will never fully trust you unless you're confirmed.

Spoiler: Side Conversation with Pav

Okay, but in that case, shouldn't that, at the very least, make you think that me v Val has a decent chance of being TvS and not TvT? Either, I am town and making a real argument against my strongest scum read, OR I am scum making a push like I did on you?

Because, from what I have seen, you still appear to think it is TvT

I think in short both players are making a case they honestly believe to be true about the other.

Spoiler:

Of course there's a chance, and I'll grant it's greater than a slight chance, but at the moment I am more convinced it's TvT.

Spoiler:

From what I can see, this is the reason you think it is TvT:

I don't think scum is going to lean *that* hard into a miselim on d1.

And, I would say that while this might apply to me, I do not know that it actually applies to Val.

I would describe his play, less as "leaning into a miselim" and more "needing to present me as scum, to stop my push on him"

Compare the VERY distinctive tone shift starting immediately after I made 214

Spoiler: Val's tone before post 214

My 99 was simply pointing out something that pinged me as scummy, but I entered into this conversation believing with further exploration it may well turn out to be NAI or even perhaps town motivated.

While Lukewarm appears to have taken my post 99 as saying "I read Lukewarm as scum", I'm not all the way there yet.

Whilst I think Lukewarm has started to ping me scummy, I am not throwing my vote down on them and calling them a scumread until I have more reason to do so, in an attempt to avoid another Val v JamesTheNames situation.

I will point out that, while I am definitely getting some scumpings from Lukes slot since then, I don't think it's anything to vote over just yet

VOTE: Lukewarm
{snip}
It's not a strong lean, but it's good enough for a early-D1 first serious vote.

Spoiler: Val's tone after 214

No offense, but I know your case is bullshit, and I think it's fairly obviously bullshit and will be seen as such by the other players

Hope your scumbuddy isn't giving you too much crap in the PT right now

you are doing a grand old job of basically bussing yourself here.

@Pav

If you do have other reasons to think he is town, can you town case him for me?

[Val89]

Pav, the only townread that's shown some inkling they are actually started following our 1v1 a bit and found something of yours to be scummy, and suddenly you are all over him in a "side conversation".

He spotted your snipping my posts to change the tone of them once, I trust he will spot you cherry picking quotes in that little manuever, too.

[Zyla]

@Alstro, about 73, Mini Normal 2218 has just concluded, so I'm interested in hearing what your thoughts were

[Lukewarm]

Just as an aside, Not_Mafia has become my top guess for Val's partner, over Portia at this point.

I think it explains why Val has taken such great pains to make it clear that he was not making an associative read between me and Not_Mafia, and that it was a read on me specifically.

I also have found it interesting that not once, in all of this back and forth where I have said that it would not make sense that I would act this way if Not_Mafia was not my partner, Val has not even hinted at the some what obvious counter "well maybe Not_Mafia just is your partner after all"

It would also explain the point that Zyla made earlier in post 126

--------

As for Not_Mafia himself, I am used to Not_Mafia being in the lower half of posters, but he has been particularly absent this game

I would also say that 436 seems somewhat out of character - like the way he approached it.

If everyone refuses to deal with the Me v Val issue, that is an elim I would no longer object to.

[Not_Mafia]

I would also say that 436 seems somewhat out of character - like the way he approached it.

Why?

[Lukewarm]

I am much more used to you being more... I am struggling to find the right way to express it. But, I guess, less specific? -- Also more direct. And you also seem to address your scum reads at the rest of the lobby, not the person you are scum reading.

I really should probably look at your past scum games though, because even though we have like 4+ games together, I have never seen your scum game.

I would say that the read on you is at least 50%, if not more, associative stuff coming from Val.

--------------------------

Maybe I can grab stuff from past games to try and show what I mean.

Actually every single time Not_Mafia mentioned Drap in Open 810, before Drap was the Day 1 Elim

Spoiler:

Leaning Bingle here

VOTE: Bingle

Norwee let’s call a truce for this game and vote Bingle with me

Bingle getting desperate

Hopkirk vote Bingle

marci vote Bingle with us

Lukewarm vote Bingle

Actually every single time Not_Mafia mentioned Bingle in Micro 1010, before Bingle was the Day 1 Elim

Spoiler:

Drapion is scum though, I've read the first 2 pages

Drapion is scum though, I've read the first 2 pages

eh i think gypx is way more scum than drap. drap has been very solvy on finding mafia wit a town mindset imo. the interation wit them and gypx just made gypx look worse. they also had good reactions against luke. i might be biased tho

^ Drapion's partner

Although I will say it’s great to have NM playing, he’s funny and I like him!

Thanks, I like you too. It's a shame that you're scum.

Bingle, wouldn't it be so random if you just like, voted Drapion right now?

That would be like so crazy and cool

VOTE: Prof. Drapion

VOTE: Prof. Drapion

252+ Atk Choice Band Miltank Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0- Def Drapion: 282-332 (100.3 - 118.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO

-----------

I don't know, just comparing that to

I have scared people off from trying to sort either me or Val

Sounds like a good outcome for scum-you

It

feels

different to me

[Lukewarm]

I managed to paste the quotes in to the opposite spoiler boxes. Pretend that was flippled lol

[Not_Mafia]

Interesting

[Lukewarm]

I would say that the read on you is at least 50%, if not more, associative stuff coming from Val.

I am generally against pushing reads based on pre-flip associations, so I am not going to start pushing Not_Mafia here -- I still very much want us to flip Val

This was more of a "I am no longer going to object" if other people want to push there

[Lukewarm]

Not_Mafia -- can you link me to like your two most recent scum games?

[Not_Mafia]

Not_Mafia -- can you link me to like your two most recent scum games?

I forget every game the instant it ends

[Pavowski]

@Pav

please don't miss this

Spoiler:

Your style is a double edged sword. You make good arguments, sometimes excellent arguments, and I usually have a hard time disagreeing with much of what you post or how you read people. And I do *tend* to read you as town. But -- and maybe this is because I was on the receiving end of one of your pushes last game when I knew it was wrong -- I know you can use those arguments and reads as scum framing a townie just as well as you can as a townie reading scum. So while I find your reads insightful and maybe even correct, I take them with a hefty dose of salt; probably more salt than I take other players'.

tl;dr -- I think you're an excellent player, and that's why I will never fully trust you unless you're confirmed.

Spoiler: Side Conversation with Pav

Okay, but in that case, shouldn't that, at the very least, make you think that me v Val has a decent chance of being TvS and not TvT? Either, I am town and making a real argument against my strongest scum read, OR I am scum making a push like I did on you?

Because, from what I have seen, you still appear to think it is TvT

I think in short both players are making a case they honestly believe to be true about the other.

Spoiler:

Of course there's a chance, and I'll grant it's greater than a slight chance, but at the moment I am more convinced it's TvT.

Spoiler:

From what I can see, this is the reason you think it is TvT:

I don't think scum is going to lean *that* hard into a miselim on d1.

And, I would say that while this might apply to me, I do not know that it actually applies to Val.

I would describe his play, less as "leaning into a miselim" and more "needing to present me as scum, to stop my push on him"

Compare the VERY distinctive tone shift starting immediately after I made 214

Spoiler: Val's tone before post 214

My 99 was simply pointing out something that pinged me as scummy, but I entered into this conversation believing with further exploration it may well turn out to be NAI or even perhaps town motivated.

While Lukewarm appears to have taken my post 99 as saying "I read Lukewarm as scum", I'm not all the way there yet.

Whilst I think Lukewarm has started to ping me scummy, I am not throwing my vote down on them and calling them a scumread until I have more reason to do so, in an attempt to avoid another Val v JamesTheNames situation.

I will point out that, while I am definitely getting some scumpings from Lukes slot since then, I don't think it's anything to vote over just yet

VOTE: Lukewarm
{snip}
It's not a strong lean, but it's good enough for a early-D1 first serious vote.

Spoiler: Val's tone after 214

No offense, but I know your case is bullshit, and I think it's fairly obviously bullshit and will be seen as such by the other players

Hope your scumbuddy isn't giving you too much crap in the PT right now

you are doing a grand old job of basically bussing yourself here.

@Pav

If you do have other reasons to think he is town, can you town case him for me?

I know you are certain of your case and I know you want to believe that this tone shift is evidence of scum losing their grip on the situation. But what if he's town? And what if he's getting hounded and feels like he's made his case (just like you have) and isn't being heard (like you said you were earlier today -- or late last night, whenever)?

I think it makes just as much sense -- maybe even more -- that the tone shift you're describing is a result of frustration at retreading the same ground after so many posts. I don't love the tone shift you're putting on display here, but I do not read it as automatically sinister.

I didn't mind the spoilered posts while you were sort of reflecting on the situation in general, but this is the game we're talking about, and as Val points out:

Pav, the only townread that's shown some inkling they are actually started following our 1v1 a bit and found something of yours to be scummy, and suddenly you are all over him in a "side conversation".

He spotted your snipping my posts to change the tone of them once, I trust he will spot you cherry picking quotes in that little manuever, too.

this is another of those weird things that doesn't make sense to me if you're town.

You asked for a town case for him, here is one thing (without diving into a deep ISO, which I don't think I have the stamina for on a Sunday). If he were scum against the wall, I'd expect him to be trying to distract and divert and send the rest of us down rabbit holes. He's not doing that; he's mostly playing defense and watching your moves like a hawk.

He's doing

exactly what you're doing

, just with a different style.

[marcistar]

huh, pavowski so do u think lukes scum or town? im getting so confused with what ur pov is lately

[Lukewarm]

Not_Mafia -- can you link me to like your two most recent scum games?

I forget every game the instant it ends

Thanks !

[Pavowski]

I think their conflict is TvT, but if I had to vote against one or the other, right now I would vote Luke.

It's not by a lot, but if the elim is one or the other, that's where I am *right now*.

Don't mean to make my read confusing, but this is difficult when I don't *particularly* scumread either Luke or Val. It's weird. Like in a vacuum I'd say they're both more or less neutral for me right now, but their 1v1 feels TvT.

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler:

This game feels like beating your head against a wall repeatedly.

If this game ends, and the scum team really is exactly [Val + NM/Portia] then I will be accepting apologies from other people post game.

@Pav -- you are currently voting Zyla, and your stated reason being

I think Zyla is coasting. I know she said RL was a factor, but I looked over her ISO -- including the posts she made this morning after checking back in and refreshing -- and I don't see her actually taking a clear position on anybody. Before yesterday, it's much the same.

VOTE: Zyla because I think you're hedging. You said you think Luke/Val is SvT but you're not sure which way. If you think there's scum on one side, you must have an opinion, even if it's only an inkling.

I responded to that here:

@Pav, I just did an iso on Zyla, and I would say that I am on a weak town lean there

I liked the way she did her iso read list -- it gave lots of things for people to latch on to / respond to. I think she put in a lot of work to try and pull the thread back into productive conversations -- I think it is probably my/val's fault that she did not spark several conversations all at once there.

Particularly liked the reach out to Not_Mafia

Although, I kinda disliked the Matci post. I feel like there should have been //something// there to respond to.

But over all, I liked it

And Zyla also clarified that she was leaning Val as the scum in our 1v1 here:

I'm leaning Val as scum, but it's 60/40 right now

Do you have any further thoughts on Zyla, either just what you are thinking or in response to my post?

[Pavowski]

I do see her recent effort and it's pulling her back some. I'll have another look at her ISO but that may be tomorrow.

I'm curious what she's looking for from Alstro above because I'm trying to figure out if I actually TR Alstro or if I'm just gutfeeling it there.

Incidentally Luke if you turn out right and it's Val + Portia/NM I'll sheep you in every game from now on

[Zyla]

I'm curious what she's looking for from Alstro above because I'm trying to figure out if I actually TR Alstro or if I'm just gutfeeling it there.

At least IMO, knowing why someone is reading me one way seems like a good way to understand their motivations in the game, even if someone's wrong in reading me as scum they can be reading me that way for decent reasons or poor ones; the connection between this and my Normal could help me decide which one I think it is

[alstroemerial]

@Alstro, about 73, Mini Normal 2218 has just concluded, so I'm interested in hearing what your thoughts were

This is actually not the game I was following >.< Sorry... I know it's counterintuitive -- it was actually referring to a game you aren't in, but something involving you in Newbie Backrooms came up as a topic of conversation and I was using that. But since you went to the trouble of linking this mini normal, I checked your role and did a quick read of the ISO (btw, I'm with you on the ISO-lation thing you mentioned in that game ). One thing I noticed which I haven't realized is that Backrooms was your first game (I think? Correct me if I'm wrong), which really diminishes my confidence in being able to apply any meta based on that since I know style changes faster for newer players... The hunch I was running on was pretty much purely based on style meta so that could change quickly. It's also harder just because you've been around less (which just to be clear I am NOT reading you for; I totally get real-life stuff and I do hope everything is okay), so I'm not sure how much any differences in mini normal 2218 and this game are indicative of anything other than real-life conditions.

What I will say is that I do see similarities in your post style in that mini normal and this game, in terms of tone, length, general content, which is reassuring although not enough to push you to a full TR in this game. On that note......

alstroemerial

, do you have a readslist for us?

Here is roughly where I'm sitting right now:

Marci,

Pavowski, Val, Luke,

Umlaut, Zyla,

Not_Mafia,

Portia

The above is an 'order matters' list, which is to say, I do think Val v Luke is TvT but things have shifted a bit... before Luke would have been the same color but Val would have been an orange, so I was like, it's probably TvT but if we had to I would pick Val. Now it's I'm even

more

thinking it's TvT because Val has made me think he's more likely to be town but without changing my mind on Luke -- so I really don't want to do either, but if we really had to in order to prevent a no elim, I would say let's go with Luke.

[alstroemerial]

Come again? You think its better for you (even as scum???) for people to sift though it; but you are puposefully avoiding drawing attention to us two again?

I think we can shout to people who have been inactive, "hey, make sure you read that and have an opinion" but I think we have gotten enough out of it. In other words, I think it is fine to keep talking "about" it, but it should involve more than a 1v1 of Luke and Val.

With that in mind...

I don’t want to eliminate Val or Luke. They keep thread Alice to an e stent I think town suffers regardless of the flip. I want to see where they push off each other. Bet that might just be me.

Portia:

you say you don't want to eliminate either regardless of the flip. Does this imply you think one of them could flip scum? If yes, who?

I have scared people off from trying to sort either me or Val

Sounds like a good outcome for scum-you

Not_Mafia:

Wouldn't this also be a good outcome for a scum-Val? To put what I'm trying to get at another way, could you give at least one (1) sentence about why you SR Luke?

Strong TR on Lukewarm still.
Some degree of TR on all of {marcistar, alstroemerial, Pavowski}.

Gives me an elim pool of {Val98, Not_Mafia, Zyla, Portia}.

NM has done fuck-all but I kind of expect that from him. Would not object to an elim there but in my experience we either do it or don't, trying to use votes to pressure him is useless.

Umlaut:

You mention in a later post that this "could" be TvT, but which do you think is more likely? In this post you have Val in your elim pool.

[Zyla]

@Alstro, about 73, Mini Normal 2218 has just concluded, so I'm interested in hearing what your thoughts were

This is actually not the game I was following >.< Sorry... I know it's counterintuitive -- it was actually referring to a game you aren't in, but something involving you in Newbie Backrooms came up as a topic of conversation and I was using that. But since you went to the trouble of linking this mini normal, I checked your role and did a quick read of the ISO (btw, I'm with you on the ISO-lation thing you mentioned in that game ). One thing I noticed which I haven't realized is that Backrooms was your first game (I think? Correct me if I'm wrong), which really diminishes my confidence in being able to apply any meta based on that since I know style changes faster for newer players... The hunch I was running on was pretty much purely based on style meta so that could change quickly. It's also harder just because you've been around less (which just to be clear I am NOT reading you for; I totally get real-life stuff and I do hope everything is okay), so I'm not sure how much any differences in mini normal 2218 and this game are indicative of anything other than real-life conditions.

What I will say is that I do see similarities in your post style in that mini normal and this game, in terms of tone, length, general content, which is reassuring although not enough to push you to a full TR in this game. On that note..

Haha, not what I was expecting, but I can track you there

[Val89]

Alstro, Is there anything in particular you can say about Marci that puts her over, say Pav? I've had a look through your ISO, but the only reference I can find is a vague note that you are "liking [her] more and more" in 373.

I also noticed while looking that you say in 293 that a "A Val flip would give information for sorting Portia, Umlaut, and Marci in my opinion.", when you were asked about it you said "I think Val being town makes you [marci] and Portia a little more likely to be town" (311) but I don't think you've ever explained why you thought that.

The reason I ask is (I'll have to go back and check) but I don't recall ever making a strong read in either direction in our previous game without giving reasons why. That's a nice bold colour you've chosen for Marci, without giving much if anything in the way of justification.

Are those two orange players (Umlaut and Zyla) null reads, or is that meant to indicate they are slight scum reads?

[Lukewarm]

this is another of those weird things that doesn't make sense to me if you're town.

I am curious what quotes you think I shortened to the point of being misleading?

----------------

This is the thing I was trying to draw attention to was:

Prior to post 214, Val appears to have had a weak scum lean lean on me. He said himself in post 183 "It's not a strong lean"

Then he read post 214

After that, his read on me changed so much so that he appears to be so sure that I am scum that he has not indicated even the slightest worry that I might be a townie tunneled on him.

And I was hoping that you would ask yourself, does it make sense for his read and tone to have changed so suddenly from immediately before 214 to immediately after 214.

---------------

I feel like the quotes I chose highlighted that, and were not misleading about his stance on me either before or after.

I mean, I understand why Val wants to present it like I was misquoting him in some way, but I am not sure what drew you to agree with him there.

Shortening quotes misleadingly is a dumb play to make from either alignment tbh. The quote box links directly back to the original post, so if you want to look for further context it is right there. Making a misleading quote seems like a dumb trap to set up for yourself, since it is so easy to follow back on.

[Lukewarm]

Interesting

This post keeps coming back to me.

I feel like this is a strange response to our conversation, but I am struggling to sort from it.

Like, I feel like it is a strange response coming from both alignments, so I am not sure what to do with it.

[Lukewarm]

@Not_Mafia - can you expound upon that "interesting"