MT 2219: The Battle of Calculasia - Endgame

[Xlos]

Ah, but this time I really am masons, promise *wink*
More seriously, I'm generally confused about what the fuck is happening in the game. Words are being thrown around, players can't seem to make up their mind, and some players are saying things contradictiong what both themselves and others are saying. I'm not really sure what to think, so I'm staying on the sidelines until my assistance is needed. Cutting off deadweight won't help you kill scum, it'll only keep the game noisy and unreadable.

I want your assistance. Please vote for who you think is scum. I think there is enough info in my iso to give you a very good option, if you aren't sure who to vote.

[Xlos]

Just realized that I misread DGB's post a while ago 1226. I thought it said Galron claimed something D2, but he didn't. So I feel like blocking Galron wasn't that unreasonable. Scum is going to use the least suspicious player to submit the NK, so choosing a random ish player to RB is pretty reasonable. Since blocking nomnomnom is also a good move (they were scum), the argument for Toog seems weaker.

Since Galron was blocked, it would seem that they are a roleblocker (or some member other of scum is). If he is a roleblocker, I kind of doubt he was lying about visiting nomnomnom D1 since scum likely feared a tracker. It's totally possible that they took the risk during the day after seeing the doctor + cop flip, though. I'm not sure that scum wanted to protect nomnomnom at all since their claim fated them to a quick death, but the opinion flip on them is pretty strange.

It's not a bad argument, but the actions seem pretty logical from a town 2-shot RB as well. Contrast to A50, a player who has done even more scummy things and whose actions can't be explained from a town perspective. DGB, did I miss something here?

Also I'm thinking we should count Galron as conftown for getting blocked.

[Titus]

Also I'm thinking we should count Galron as conftown for getting blocked.

I don't get this with two scum alive.

[MathBlade]

@Mathblade: Remember this game? Assuming you're town here; can you please tell me how you play/logic/thought process evolved from back then till now?? because I honestly don't see much difference. "I am right because I'm right, and the things that

are actually true

don't make sense".

I rest my case

If you're going to randomly spout alts for no apparent reason I was Commander Shepard that game. At least leave enough context so people can figure it out.

1) My logic has changed in that I'm presenting arguments that have to be addressed. If they are not addressed then I can not just "change my mind" because the person I scum read asks me to. I'm actively asking for reasons to shoot down my case. No one is giving me any. I've literally trying to destroy my own argument. I've asked several times for people to do the bare minimum and just interact with it. I mean if people aren't going to use the information we have and start from cold hard facts and be intentionally illogical I'm just not hard wired to handle that. I work off of starting with given facts "Premises" then propose different ideas based on that.

Eg Town has a doctor. Fact. Scum has a one shot doctor. Fact.
Question asked: Why does scum have a doctor? Response: Likely scum needed it.

Eg. Assume all claims are town.
Question asked: What balances the setup? Response: Can't find a single way to do it that doesn't result in follow the cop.

Both of those if you disagree can be interacted with.
Titus just did "well because mods put in fake things for town why not scum?" It's possible that a vig/exploder/whatever doesn't exist, but against such claims already existing, it's more than likely real. There also hasn't been a known game in my entire career of mafia scum where scum have had a useless power. So while the possibility is that town doesn't have a vig/exploder/whatever, it's not anywhere near probably < 10%. Therefore I bank on town having a vig. Which then causes a problem balancing the setup.

Because I'm starting from a place that's logic, not based on reads or "gut" but factual evidence. In the game in question, I didn't take into account the theme part of Mafia scum in which the motion detector would still give innos/guilties so the miller/god father made sense.

2) In that game, yes, I struggled. I had a bad game. But part of a good town game is cooperation. I'm doing my part and saying "Hey help me I'm struggling with x" then if you're response is to highfive me or not interact with it, then that's not good cooperation. I can only go so far as people give me something to interact with.

I can't shake my DGB paranoia because it isn't doing the things I know of it being town for.
I can't shake the Toog paranoia because it would make sense to be a full roleblocker.
I can't shake my paranoia of you because of your play around nom yesterday including the fake claims and when pressured today you decided some weird ass fake claim trying to get me to flavor hunt vs scum hunt and being unique was a good idea instead of a calm, rational approach.

If you think A50 is town then help me explain why. Give me a practical reason why town does what A50 has done. We can analyze that reason together, see if it stands up to scrutiny. If it does then A50 goes into my null reads. Until then, if it quacks like a duck, walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, it's probably a duck.

3) I admit, it's quite possible that everyone there in that trio could be town. But it's not really probable and imho none of DGB, Toog, A50 should exist to elo.

4) I'm not saying I'm right I'm saying it's the most probable. If you want to provide some thinking or some meet or some depth behind your thoughts go ahead. I'm loathe to vote Xlos because Xlos is one of the few players who is also showing that sort of depth and actually communicating.

5) How is me sucking in a past game relevant now? Yes I was bad. I had the right idea though. The only thing this does is shade a player you think to be town. If you really think I'm town, then get me where you are instead of attacking me.

I'm always going to do what I view as the most probable. That's who I am.

[MathBlade]

Also I'm thinking we should count Galron as conftown for getting blocked.

I don't get this with two scum alive.

Seconded. If Toog is scum, then Toog could have easily lied about who he blocked. If Toog is town, then it's less likely Galron did the kill. (Still possible strongman, redirect, busdriver, etc...) I don't think this tells us anything. I think it's more likely Galron is town, but definitely not conf town.

[Jake The Wolfie]

Hey so what has Galron done recently?

[Jake The Wolfie]

I kinda forgot they were playing the game until I looked back at the playerlist.

After looking through their recent Iso, they've kinda just asked open ended questions and shot out short replies to messages. While that's all fine and such, he doesn't seem to be interacting with the players that much.

[Titus]

TLDR

The problem is when you decide that you'll go with what you think is mathematically probable to the exclusion of all else you create several problems.

1) You treat your probabilities as fact, leaving little room for day play. It leaves little room for others to read you as your motivations are not clear.

Second, you fail to consider not all players are rational beings. A50 is towntelling so hard with his frustration with you but you aren't listening because of setup spec probabilities in your opinion. You don't think his play is optimal for town, therefore you scumread it.

You're failing to support your townreads (if you have any). Your townreads can't figure out or sync with someone refusing to read half the game because "scum must be in the PRs".

Your approach to A50 looks arbitrary. Toog has his reasons for being suspect, yet you hardly look there. You aren't considering the accuracy of other slots.

How is anyone supposed to work with you when you lay down edicts and expect us to follow?

I saw a problem that DGB was not going to vote who I thought was scum (Toog and Xlos) because it was deadset on voting its night result. I wasn't sure it was accurate but I knew I could trust it to honor a deal if it was wrong. I can't build that trust with you because you play exclusively to the probabilities (that are just your opinion).

[MathBlade]

Hey so what has Galron done recently?

Don't remember him much at all. He's been not on my priority list because of all the other shit and not in that trio of likely scum. Usually lurkers can be sorted end game for me it kinda becomes simple by seeing who they talked with etc. Lurkers kinda become easier reads late game as long as they make minimum posting requirements a heat map solves that problem.

[MathBlade]

Responses in bold.

TLDR

The problem is when you decide that you'll go with what you think is mathematically probable to the exclusion of all else you create several problems.

1) You treat your probabilities as fact, leaving little room for day play. It leaves little room for others to read you as your motivations are not clear.

I'm not treating my probabilities as fact though. I'm treating them as most probable. Day play gets applied on top of probability. Eg it was most likely nom was scum or in the game I liked you the Grendel was scum. In the latter a reasonable way Grendel was not scum was provided. In this case, a likely way for nom to be town was not provided and he was correctly eliminated

Second, you fail to consider not all players are rational beings. A50 is towntelling so hard with his frustration with you but you aren't listening because of setup spec probabilities in your opinion. You don't think his play is optimal for town, therefore you scumread it.

A50 is known for scumrage. There is no "towntelling so hard" with his frustration. I've played with scum him enough to have seen his rage. If A50 was a new player I'd account for suboptimal a bit more, but this is like newb scum level bad. A50 is a good player. I am pretty much BoPing him. It's in the same way if I was to be frustrated or be manipulative when ran up on a wagon it's not alignment indicative.

You're failing to support your townreads (if you have any). Your townreads can't figure out or sync with someone refusing to read half the game because "scum must be in the PRs".

Pretty sure I am supporting my town reads. We've shook hands several times including the likely vig/etc. I'm pretty sure he/she/they/it knows I think they are the vig. I've also been communicating and interacting with everyone's arguments and can succintly state them except yours (but I waffle on you town/scum) and it seems it's just emotion. There's no reasoning to interact with. If you're town, you believe A50, DGB, and Toog are all town. If you're scum you may or may not. I'm not you so there's nothing to be able to use to change my opinion.

Your approach to A50 looks arbitrary. Toog has his reasons for being suspect, yet you hardly look there. You aren't considering the accuracy of other slots.

Toog has mechanical reasons to be suspect simply his claim. I've stated earlier that I think his response to nom was townie. A50 is more likely scum because of his weird role interactions and day play. I'm focusing on the player who is more likely to be scum. I've always said that if Toog was wagoned I'd hammer that as he's in my PoE.

How is anyone supposed to work with you when you lay down edicts and expect us to follow?

That's the thing. I'm not. A50 is painting it that way. I'm providing my reasoning. It's only an edict if you're not willing to try to examine it critically. If you're not willing to look into it and see what's right. If you look into it and find it wrong, then you would be able to say why and communicate so. Any players arguments mine, Xlos, yours should be analyzed. I don't expect you to follow. I expect you to try to recreate it. See if it's valid. What do you think my argument is? Try summarizing it. If you can't then you probably haven't looked at it or you don't understand it. That doesn't make it an edict.

I saw a problem that DGB was not going to vote who I thought was scum (Toog and Xlos) because it was deadset on voting its night result. I wasn't sure it was accurate but I knew I could trust it to honor a deal if it was wrong. I can't build that trust with you because you play exclusively to the probabilities (that are just your opinion).

Probabilities are based on fact though. Probabilities based on opinion especially in RVS are much more flexible. And yes it should be voting a night result if true. The deal part is fundamentally irrelevant as it's doing what was probable if it's town. The rest is superfluous. And you're right, I don't do deals unless they help me to narrow down or investigate probabilities. If something seems less likely for us to win, I don't do it as it's seemingly against win con. I always do what seems to be the highest change for town to win.

[Almost50]

If you're going to randomly spout alts for no apparent reason I was Commander Shepard that game. At least leave enough context so people can figure it out.

*Rechecks*
*Double-rechecks*

Where did I say I was talking to "others"?? I clearly was talking to MATHBLADE (see the @??). Unless @Math has become some kind of fad to say "I want everybody's attention, please"

[MathBlade]

Technically the more I think about it, Wheme should also be in that PoE as well now that he's also claimed informed neighbor the more I think about it so it's now a quartet.

Pedit: The default position is you're talking to everyone to help bring everyone into the conversation. Yes you want a response from me, but people should be able to follow along to read me and you otherwise it's spam.

[MathBlade]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=85398

For context A50 this seems to be a really recent game where I have improved.
I was a loyal motion detector with a "guilty" on Grendel.
However after talking it out we realized the guilty wasn't a guilty and then ended up elimming Titus who was actually scum that game.

If you're town give me something here. I can change I just don't see any good reason you're town.

[Toogeloo]

Gonna be real, I'm starting to feel like this setup analysis is a smokescreen to look super active without having to commit actual reads.

I don't mind the casual setup speculation, but you don't have the full picture Math. You actually stated the only reason you think I'm scum is because you personally can only develop a scum team composition that includes a Roleblocker, however every insinuation about my alignment from you seems to leans probable town.

So take a stance. Assume I'm town, and see if you can make an argument for someone else as being scum as a result.

---

Titus, what is your actual read on me? DGB is wrong, and you riding their coattails hoping to catch scum is dumb, especially since their case on me is conspiracy/paranoia.

---

Jake, you are criticizing Galron's limited engagement, but holy shit they are actually taking stances on topics, unlike you.

---

I can't defend against paranoia. I can't defend against stupid. And I'm certainly not about to defend myself in setup spec because any number of unknown variables including lies distorts the information.

But I've also blown my load, and been completely transparent with my reasons and reads up to this point. If people legit think eliminating me from the game will help the solve, well, whatever. I think people are being dumb with their reasons, but at the very least I've used all my actions.

I'm reevaluating my reads from a few pages back. I think I too hastily am giving a pass to a couple people, Math in particular for refusal to step away from setup spec and analyze play instead.

[Jake The Wolfie]

Jake, you are criticizing Galron's limited engagement, but holy shit they are actually taking stances on topics, unlike you.

Why do I have to commit myself to any stance that I don't genuinely believe in?

I do not have a stance because I'm too uninformed about whatever the fuck anyone is saying, and it has still remained mostly confusing and unhelpful. They might as well be talking in encrypted text.

[Galron]

Just realized that I misread DGB's post a while ago 1226. I thought it said Galron claimed something D2, but he didn't. So I feel like blocking Galron wasn't that unreasonable. Scum is going to use the least suspicious player to submit the NK, so choosing a random ish player to RB is pretty reasonable. Since blocking nomnomnom is also a good move (they were scum), the argument for Toog seems weaker.

Since Galron was blocked, it would seem that they are a roleblocker (or some member other of scum is). If he is a roleblocker, I kind of doubt he was lying about visiting nomnomnom D1 since scum likely feared a tracker. It's totally possible that they took the risk during the day after seeing the doctor + cop flip, though. I'm not sure that scum wanted to protect nomnomnom at all since their claim fated them to a quick death, but the opinion flip on them is pretty strange.

It's not a bad argument, but the actions seem pretty logical from a town 2-shot RB as well. Contrast to A50, a player who has done even more scummy things and whose actions can't be explained from a town perspective. DGB, did I miss something here?

Also I'm thinking we should count Galron as conftown for getting blocked.

"Blocking nom was a good move because nom was scum." Except a Town!toog doesn't know nom was scum, and nom was pretty well town read Day 1, so it's a lucky move, not a good move. Using that as a jumping off point to say that I was blocked "Since Galron was blocked" to further confirm toog as roleblocker (and to confirm me as Town) doesn't make sense. Nor does your statment "or some member other of scum is." I don't follow that at all.

[Galron]

Hey so what has Galron done recently?

Queue Janet Jackson.

[Toogeloo]

nom was pretty well town read Day 1,

so it's a lucky move,

not a good move.

So you think I'm town?

[Galron]

nom was pretty well town read Day 1,

so it's a lucky move,

not a good move.

So you think I'm town?

Except a Town!toog doesn't know nom was scum

[Jake The Wolfie]

One of the reasons this game is really hard to read is that I don't townread any of you. All I'm seeing is

red

and

grey

, without much (if at all)

green

.

There is no organization or association to what I'm seeing. Nothing here is making sense.

[Galron]

One of the reasons this game is really hard to read is that I don't townread any of you. All I'm seeing is

red

and

grey

, without much (if at all)

green

.

There is no organization or association to what I'm seeing. Nothing here is making sense.

You think DGB bussed?

[Jake The Wolfie]

It voted for Nom really early and it never moved it's vote onto anyone else, so I don't think so.

[Ircher]

Day 3 VC #7

Xlos (3) (F-2): Almost50 (1133), Toogeloo (1134), Galron (1269)

Almost50 (2): Xlos (1135), MathBlade (1124)
Jake the Wolfie (1): Jake the Wolfie (1004)
Titus (0):
Toogeloo (2): DrippingGoofball (1074), Titus (1075)

Not Voting (1): WhemeStar

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to fade a player.

Deadlines

This phase will end no earlier than Thursday, July 8, 2021 9:45:00 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-08 21:45:00).
This phase will end no later than Wednesday, July 14, 2021 9:45 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-14 21:45:00).

Moderator Notes

1: If you have regular weekend V/LA, please inform me each week.
2: Please let me know if you have a different pronoun preference than listed below.

Pronoun Key

1: DrippingGoofball : It
3: Xlos : He/him
4: Almost50 : He/him
5: Jake the Wolfie : Any
6: Galron : He/him
7: MathBlade : He/him
9: Titus : She/her
10: WhemeStar : He/him
12: Toogeloo : They/them

[Almost50]

3 more votes on Xlos is what we need, folks

[Galron]

It voted for Nom really early and it never moved it's vote onto anyone else, so I don't think so.

So if DGB didn't bus, you have a town read I would think.

This sounds so sophmoric. What am I missing exactly?