I get that. The delivery of the bolded line seems more like a slip though. Not, "it would have been a lucky shot..." but rather, "it was a lucky shot...". The former coming from somebody who is either unsure of my alignment or trying to sell a scum read, the latter coming from a perspective of knowing I am town.
In post 1351, Xlos wrote:Also I'm thinking we should count Galron as conftown for getting blocked.
I don't get this with two scum alive.
Seconded. If Toog is scum, then Toog could have easily lied about who he blocked. If Toog is town, then it's less likely Galron did the kill. (Still possible strongman, redirect, busdriver, etc...) I don't think this tells us anything. I think it's more likely Galron is town, but definitely not conf town.
Take the very reasonable assumption that Toog + Galron are not both scum.
If Galron wasn't blocked, why wouldn't he be more suspicious of Toog? Toog admitted to blocking Galron at the very start of the day. Lying right then would be a big risk for scum. I think it's reasonable to assume that Toog did not lie about who he blocked.
Why is it less likely that Galron did the kill? I think that Toog's assessment that Galron is a surprising person to target is correct. If I were scum, I would definitely choose Galron to do the kill over DBG/A50/Mathblade. These are more suspicious characters overall. If we find out that the other scum is in this list, then surely we can put Galron as conftown. I am pretty confident that the other scum is A50.
In post 1351, Xlos wrote:Just realized that I misread DGB's post a while ago 1226. I thought it said Galron claimed something D2, but he didn't. So I feel like blocking Galron wasn't that unreasonable. Scum is going to use the least suspicious player to submit the NK, so choosing a random ish player to RB is pretty reasonable. Since blocking nomnomnom is also a good move (they were scum), the argument for Toog seems weaker.
Since Galron was blocked, it would seem that they are a roleblocker (or some member other of scum is). If he is a roleblocker, I kind of doubt he was lying about visiting nomnomnom D1 since scum likely feared a tracker. It's totally possible that they took the risk during the day after seeing the doctor + cop flip, though. I'm not sure that scum wanted to protect nomnomnom at all since their claim fated them to a quick death, but the opinion flip on them is pretty strange.
It's not a bad argument, but the actions seem pretty logical from a town 2-shot RB as well. Contrast to A50, a player who has done even more scummy things and whose actions can't be explained from a town perspective. DGB, did I miss something here?
Also I'm thinking we should count Galron as conftown for getting blocked.
"Blocking nom was a good move because nom was scum." Except a Town!toog doesn't know nom was scum, and nom was pretty well town read Day 1, so it's a lucky move, not a good move. Using that as a jumping off point to say that I was blocked "Since Galron was blocked" to further confirm toog as roleblocker (and to confirm me as Town) doesn't make sense. Nor does your statment "or some member other of scum is." I don't follow that at all.
Well, with that mentality, us voting off nomnomnom D2 was a lucky move, not a good move Nobody knows, but you gotta give credit when the guess is correct.
For the second part, I assumed that you were blocked based on what Toog said start of D3. Toog seems to be pretty certain that you were blocked, so either he's town RB or part of a scum team with a RB.
In post 1369, Jake The Wolfie wrote:One of the reasons this game is really hard to read is that I don't townread any of you. All I'm seeing is
red
and
grey
, without much (if at all)
green
.
There is no organization or association to what I'm seeing. Nothing here is making sense.
It's helps me to assume that everyone is town when they talk about other people. Then you don't get lost in a forest of 'what's their motivation for saying this' and can think more deeply about the argument itself.
Confusing since the beginning, and I didn't like the flavor fishing Day 1. His twists of logic don't make much sense. Not as bad as Math's, but at least with xlos I can kind of understand where he's headed. I don't necessarily think he's hard scum, but I'm willing to give A50 the benefit of the doubt here.
In post 1378, Xlos wrote:Well, with that mentality, us voting off nomnomnom D2 was a lucky move, not a good move Nobody knows, but you gotta give credit when the guess is correct.
For the second part, I assumed that you were blocked based on what Toog said start of D3. Toog seems to be pretty certain that you were blocked, so either he's town RB or part of a scum team with a RB.
It's not the same thing, and I don't have the words right now to explain it any more than what I did.
With the second thing, toog may have blocked me or may not have, but what makes you think that if he's scum there's a roleblocker on the scum team?
In post 1378, Xlos wrote:Well, with that mentality, us voting off nomnomnom D2 was a lucky move, not a good move Nobody knows, but you gotta give credit when the guess is correct.
For the second part, I assumed that you were blocked based on what Toog said start of D3. Toog seems to be pretty certain that you were blocked, so either he's town RB or part of a scum team with a RB.
It's not the same thing, and I don't have the words right now to explain it any more than what I did.
With the second thing, toog may have blocked me or may not have, but what makes you think that if he's scum there's a roleblocker on the scum team?
I'm assuming that you were blocked. Toog knows it. I made this assumption because at the time I thought you confirmed it in thread. I looked back and you didn't. But I still think it's a fairly reasonable assumption, since Toog making that claim at the start of D3 is super risky from a scum perspective.
I can't explain it precisely into words, but I've played Toog numerous times before and I've modded him at least twice so I kinda know how he plays. I do not recall having seen his scum game (maybe one of the earliest games, but I'm not sure) but I can confirm this is how he plays Town.
I think I've already explained it's stupid to claim you RB'd your p to give them an out, and Toog is by no means stupid. He's very rational and not the kind that gambits in that way.
However, I am still adamant you asking people to claim what "branch of math" they were and then pushing me for the flavour claim is so scummy it smells like dead fish. Wheme's behaviour around it all 9and even after all has been said and done) is also pretty sus. I can't even think of a reason why he starts talking to me in the hood AFTER everything has already been exposed.
In post 1363, Toogeloo wrote:Gonna be real, I'm starting to feel like this setup analysis is a smokescreen to look super active without having to commit actual reads.
I don't mind the casual setup speculation, but you don't have the full picture Math. You actually stated the only reason you think I'm scum is because you personally can only develop a scum team composition that includes a Roleblocker, however every insinuation about my alignment from you seems to leans probable town.
So take a stance. Assume I'm town, and see if you can make an argument for someone else as being scum as a result.
---
Titus, what is your actual read on me? DGB is wrong, and you riding their coattails hoping to catch scum is dumb, especially since their case on me is conspiracy/paranoia.
---
Jake, you are criticizing Galron's limited engagement, but holy shit they are actually taking stances on topics, unlike you.
---
I can't defend against paranoia. I can't defend against stupid. And I'm certainly not about to defend myself in setup spec because any number of unknown variables including lies distorts the information.
But I've also blown my load, and been completely transparent with my reasons and reads up to this point. If people legit think eliminating me from the game will help the solve, well, whatever. I think people are being dumb with their reasons, but at the very least I've used all my actions.
I'm reevaluating my reads from a few pages back. I think I too hastily am giving a pass to a couple people, Math in particular for refusal to step away from setup spec and analyze play instead.
Toog I used to be the hard “take stance” guy and that’s what led me to my “bad” games instead I consider things from all possibilities and work from what’s most probable. Gun to my head I pick town but that would mean one of the unclaimed would have to be a roleblocker or similar fuckery. I don’t really learn a whole lot from that though because no one really is elaborating any reads. I know you can’t defend against just “setup spec” and I have been looking elsewhere partly for that reason.
I agree there’s a lot of unknowns that I don’t know. That’s why if there is a plausible setup/scumpairing that works and gets rid of follow the cop this would be a lot easier to progress. It just feels like elimming outside of those already claimed would be bad form because unless we assume one scum in A50/you/DGB/Wheme and one scum out the odds are much more likely we would be elimming town.
That also tends to fall right on the popularity line that irks me.
I kinda wanna revisit D1 and see why Flea was miselimmed for being inactive. The majority of this player base knows Flea has medical issues and is a slow start so I wanna review that wagon again tomorrow and see why Faer was miselimmed.
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841 GTKAS -- MathBlade
I need to look more here into why scum hammered Flea but did not hammer Murdercat both were town. Going to have to pick it up tomorrow unfortunately but I think D1 will probably be the most helpful.
If I have to give completely useless guessing here just off the top of my head we’re probably looking at a scum who couldn’t hammer due to positioning
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841 GTKAS -- MathBlade
And this is pretty much why I'm heavily town reading A50 here. I'm not someone scum goes out of there way to forcibly white knight my slot in the face of multiple alpha personalities wanting my elimination.
Titus similarly has emphasized I'm not likely scum, but sadly she's mindlessly sheeping DGB who only suspects me because I don't play the way they want me to or think I should.
After reevaluating earlier reads, I think I'll still stick with A50 and Titus as town reads, and Galron as more than likely town.
One of DGB or Math "might" be scum, but I am hesitant to say both since DGB would probably have benefitted more from bussing slimer/Italiano before Math replaced in. Stating either of these slots is scum is of low confidence, and more of paranoia though since the former has done shit all after claiming a guilty on Day 2 and the latter has done shit all other than try and setup solve. If I had to pick one as scum, it would be DGB because scum have been provided safe flavor claims, which a 1-shot Cop can easily be, especially in light of the flipped Role Cop.
Everyone else not listed, I really don't have a strong read on, and I freely admit to following A50 on Xlos solely because of trust and PoE.
I'm not particularly getting scummy vibes from Jake, but their playstyle benefits scum more than town, and if Jake is scum, there's a strong chance that a lot of today's focus has been on all town players and they avoiding rocking the boat by continuing to just troll.
I'm assuming for the time being that A50 and Wheme are just failing at trusting each other. I would assume that if there were scum between them, there might be more attempts at manipulation within their neighborhood and not total lack of communication.
Xlos could be scum from early flavor probes, but that could also just as easily be attempting to break ice and completely innocent intentions failing in a big way.
With so many players claimed at this point, holding my flavor might be irrelevant. If anyone feels it's necessary to claim it, I'll do so.
In post 1, Ircher wrote:Day 1 has a minimum deadline of three (3) days.
I'd also like to point out that you literally can't hammer me
@Toog: The Role Cop would have been useless at deciding alignments off of their results alone. Like, "Informed Neighbour" could have gone both ways, and so could have Roleblocker and even JOAT. It would have been only if the Rolecop lived until massclaim (or if we wagoned someone they checked and pushed them to claim) that they could have got a guilty at all.
In post 1, Ircher wrote:Day 1 has a minimum deadline of three (3) days.
I'd also like to point out that you literally can't hammer me
@Toog: The Role Cop would have been useless at deciding alignments off of their results alone. Like, "Informed Neighbour" could have gone both ways, and so could have Roleblocker and even JOAT. It would have been only if the Rolecop lived until massclaim (or if we wagoned someone they checked and pushed them to claim) that they could have got a guilty at all.
Sorry I am sleepy I forgot about that. That’s what I get for starting this after being up til like 4 playing civ yesterday.
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841 GTKAS -- MathBlade
In post 1365, Galron wrote:"Blocking nom was a good move because nom was scum." Except a Town!toog doesn't know nom was scum, and nom was pretty well town read Day 1, so it's a lucky move, not a good move. Using that as a jumping off point to say that I was blocked "Since Galron was blocked" to further confirm toog as roleblocker (and to confirm me as Town) doesn't make sense. Nor does your statment "or some member other of scum is." I don't follow that at all.
It's actually a TERRIBLE move because nom was townread AND had claimed a PR.
Galron, only you know if you were in fact roleblocked or not, or if you cannot tell if you were roleblocked or not.
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
This tracks who voted whom each day. Each line is formatted like Player A (2): Player B (2) --> Player C (3) where Player A is the person voting, player A votes player B in post #2, and player A votes player C in post #3. The use of ==> instead of --> indicates that the vote was not changed from its current target. People indented four spaces instead of two are replacements for a slot.
Can you talk with me about why you townread A50 after wanting the label for his role and them him saying he couldn’t do it?
Can you talk about why you townread Titus? I am always paranoid of her and a lot of her posts just haven’t been understandable. I don’t see where she has individual reads. It looks like her plan is sheep you. Usually Titus is more rah rah “Solvey solve look at my solvey solve it was Miss Scarlet in the Library with the lead pipe and here’s why” Where is that from her? That fire?
Can you talk about why you townread such a limited poster like Galron but not Wheme? What’s the difference?
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841 GTKAS -- MathBlade
Nobody knows, but you gotta give credit when the guess is correct. 
