Mini Normal 2223 | Town Wins!

[geraintm]

Two days to make something happen, folks.

We could always....not

[Dwlee99]

Just... No lim? Huh?

[Titus]

Why is Titus' go to insult this game to call people children?

Because I'm bragging about how old I am and the responsibilities I carry, duh.

[Titus]

I want to see the VC. I don't feel confident enough to push anything through.

Right now, I think Rodan is the youngest child. Math inherited the "meanest" child slot.

[Dwlee99]

I know it might be weird but I am also an adult™ now

[Titus]

I am the fairy Godmother. You're all children. Some just more lovable than others but I'm not supposed to say that part out loud. Someone broke my precious vase and you’re all blaming each other.

[MathBlade]

Fairy godmother I am wish for reads from you. I understand your mojo hasn’t fired enough to cast a spell but would love it if maybe through talking you can find your mojo.

Not sure what you mean by meanest child

[MaxTheFox]

Just... No lim? Huh?

But if we NL day 1 then we wouldn't have much info day 2 aside from the NK flip (who will be a townie) and any investigatives that decide to come out. And barring a good vig shot, we have no chance to kill mafia until day 2 in that case.

[MathBlade]

Just... No lim? Huh?

But if we NL day 1 then we wouldn't have much info day 2 aside from the NK flip (who will be a townie) and any investigatives that decide to come out. And barring a good vig shot, we have no chance to kill mafia until day 2 in that case.

This. Plus we also then go to evens. Evens is much better for scum as it gives them a mylo kill most of the time.

[Dwlee99]

Max I think we should lim. I was asking if geraintm thought we shouldn't.

[MathBlade]

Just... No lim? Huh?

But if we NL day 1 then we wouldn't have much info day 2 aside from the NK flip (who will be a townie) and any investigatives that decide to come out. And barring a good vig shot, we have no chance to kill mafia until day 2 in that case.

This. Plus we also then go to evens. Evens is much better for scum as it gives them a melo kill most of the time.

Edit by way of post. Sorry for accidental old abbreviation

[geraintm]

Oh, ialways advocate no eliminatiom day 1. I believe we are much more likely to eliminate town than scum day 1, so why give them a free elim

[MaxTheFox]

Oh, ialways advocate no eliminatiom day 1. I believe we are much more likely to eliminate town than scum day 1, so why give them a free elim

See I think omo has at least scum equity. You might disagree, but in that case lim is better as killing scum usually has a bigger positive impact than the negative impact of killing a townie (there are less scum, thus we need to kill less to win, while scum needs to kill more).

[MathBlade]

Oh, ialways advocate no eliminatiom day 1. I believe we are much more likely to eliminate town than scum day 1, so why give them a free elim

This is actually a bad idea mechanically.

Assume we elim town 80% of the time D1 Scum 15% and no elim 5% (These numbers are pulled from my butt don’t quote me on them)

Assume the statistically likely 3 scum (it makes the argument easier to understand while we don’t know this it’s pretty likely)

Assume no vig either for simplicity

D1 is 10v3
8v3
6v3
4v3 on D4 worst case scenario

Contrast with no elim D1 you get
10v3
9v3
7v3
5v3 D4 on worst case scenario melo >> SOP is no elim here.
4v3

You’re looking at just two chances to hit scum before melo not three.
A wrong elim is almost certainly better than a no elim not just for info but because we don’t give scum a free Townie kill.

[MathBlade]

Instead of “hit” vs “miss” good play is more like building a block and filtration system.
The more we build and communicate and hone our filter the more likely we are to hit scum.
If we get rid of the scummiest (yes doesn’t always correspond to scum) now then elo becomes harder

It’s what town did not do in my recent scum game. Instead they went after PRs for mechanical reasons (and other reasons) after I poisoned the well. Galron who was by all accounts a lurker, same with Wheme both made it to elo. This should never happen even if both were town.

[MathBlade]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=87020

Here is a link to it.

For all intents and purposes Town should have won that game
It was odd night cop, even night rolecop, full doctor, two town neighbors
Vs
1 shot strongman, 1shot redirect, one shot flavor and doctor + informed that the two cop roles of some kind exist

Neighbors didn’t utilize hood that well
If town communicates no way we woulda won that game
Town was continually shooting itself in the foot

Don’t let perfection get in the way of “good”

[Dwlee99]

Town are always more likely to eliminate town than mafia barring investigative results. But not killing anyone means you completely miss your chance to get mafia. Night kills never hit scum, so you have to kill them during the day.

[MathBlade]

Instead of “hit” vs “miss” good play is more like building a block and filtration system.
The more we build and communicate and hone our filter the more likely we are to hit scum.
If we don’t get rid of the scummiest (yes doesn’t always correspond to scum) now then elo becomes harder

It’s what town did not do in my recent scum game. Instead they went after PRs for mechanical reasons (and other reasons) after I poisoned the well. Galron who was by all accounts a lurker, same with Wheme both made it to elo. This should never happen even if both were town.

Ebwop sorry merger thoughts

[T3]

Votecount:

• Dwlee99 (4): Salsabil Faria, ssbm_Kyouko, Titus, ManateeDude
  ManateeDude (2): omo, Dwlee99
  omo (2): MaxTheFox, DrippingGoofball
  DrippingGoofball (1): marcistar
  Salsabil Faria (1): geraintm
  Not_Mafia (1): Not_Mafia
  marcistar (1): Roden

Day 1 will end in (expired on 2021-07-25 10:22:01).
With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

Spoiler: Votes Since Last Votecount

VOTE: Manatee

sorry kyouko i think roden prob town here

VOTE: Titus

VOTE: Manatee

sorry kyouko i think roden prob town here

Okay, saudade, manatee are 2 town down I think. I was ready to vote manatee earlier too. Are scum not posting? Dwlee/Titus/?

? Could be max but i was in both her previous games and i can say with certainty that entrance is nai.

VOTE: titus

I am having trouble reading people so I'm sheeping my mason buddy.
VOTE: Titus

Roden i think ur theorycrafting bc ur reading into normal interactions on a way deeper level

You mean like me who you sheeped in voting Rowen?
VOTE: manatee

I am having trouble reading people so I'm sheeping my mason buddy.
VOTE: Titus

UNVOTE: OMO

VOTE: Dwlee99

and I'm still SR

OMO

FYI... Not sure about

Roten

atm.

Women = Roden, and I'm not switching because I like owo more. The cliqueyness was half-assed. It can be re-attacked later.

We get it, you're either scum claiming or you're a PR trying to hide yourself with scumminess so you don't get NK'd. Whatever, moving on.

This mentioning PR part seems TMI.

I don't understand how this seems TMI. How'd you come to this conclusion? The rest of your posting tracks, but this doesn't for me.

BTW last game I played with Dwlee he was scum and was talkative. Now he's quieter. Anyone who knows Dwlee better, is this NAI or no?

So you will meta N_M but not Dwlee? Why is that?

Upon skim the Titus vote stands.

In the last game she was the same, but you were more chatty, what change?

I have less to say and my eyes are glazing over on half of these posts.

VOTE: Dwlee
I think your attention span is better than you'd like us to believe

VOTE: Dwlee

Omgus haha.

VOTE: Kyo
This might be scum. The inattentiveness thing is a very strange thing to push me on and I think town!Kyo knows I sometimes am just like that.

VOTE: Dwlee

Also a lot of the pushing on me felt like they wanted me to out who my mason partner was cause it obviously wasn't Saudade.

I just wanted you to play, you're coming off as very passive and just sheeping other people. Even when pressured you're just lightly flailing. I don't think you're necessarily scummy, but you're not really doing much to help town and the Kyokou read isn't good. Who do you suspect besides her?

UNVOTE:

I'm gonna write up a reads list and figure who to push from there. Idk if Dwlee is the right vote today.

Apparently no one in FIA made my eyes roll behind my head trying to read their posts, so we move to this
VOTE: Manatee

Hi I'm a miller

Would you happen to be...Informed?

informed of DN

What is DN?

Oh no.

I'm not sure what DN is but why do I feel a sinking feeling shit's going sideways?

A Death Neighborizer!?

Deez Nuts

But yeah it feels like RVS is going on a bit too long.

Agreed.

VOTE: Titus

Town Titus wants out of RVS ASAP. Not seeing that here.

What dad joke?

When does a joke become a dad joke?

Heheheheh.

Gonna produce some content?

Also Roden’s post sucks. FoS’s can be on more players than scum. It’s also possible there’s four scum we don’t know

VOTE: Roden

VOTE: oʍo

Saudade town read dropping dramatically in just two pages. Didn't expect that.

its a lot harder to townread someone being an asshole

Yeahhhh...

Kinda wondering if this is gonna be a game where town cannibalizes itself Days 1 and 2 while scum just lays low for free.

First post I have vibed with you on. You might be town after all.

VOTE: Unvote

Marci- Same reason I suspect her that I do Manatee. However, I feel like Marci more blatantly tried to distance herself. Possibly scum trying to associate herself with a town!Manatee in order to build fake scum equity.

Also don't think Marci has been doing much solving or scum hunting, mainly just chatting with everyone and being friendly.

having trouble with my reads, though that isn't too much of a valid excuse. I have townreads mostly, and "they dont seem scummy enough to vote" reads, but im not really too confident in anything.

All things considered, I'm interested in voting out either Marci or Max unless someone can come up with a compelling enough case for somebody else.

whatchu waiting for? why didnt u vote in this post if ur willing to vote out either of me/max?

Who are your town reads? Who looks scummy but not enough to vote them?

I waited to vote because I wanted to see reactions to my lack of vote. I think your reaction is the most interesting, it reads like you want to "gotcha" me for not voting. But all you're doing is implying it's suspicious. Compare this to Math who made a full scum case out of it.

VOTE: Marcistar

Max- The root of most of my scum reads. She took a lot of heat early on then laid low ever since. Posts occasionally to avoid prod dodge accusations, but she isn't really doing anything. Most likely just trying to avoid attention, to the point it's becoming obvious.

I haven't been exactly laying low. Look at my ISO.

I've seen your ISO, a lot of your posts became very safe after your wagon cooled off. It's hard to read your posts and not notice how cautious you've been.

Saudade town read dropping dramatically in just two pages. Didn't expect that.

No he's just an pillion. An pillion with town vibes tho. I can't quite explain it.

Wait he got replaced? I didn't catch up yet. Welcome Math!

I can agree with this.

[Dwlee99]

I looked at that game @mathblade and I'm very confused why the claimed cop that guiltied nom was eliminated in ELO.

[MathBlade]

I looked at that game @mathblade and I'm very confused why the claimed cop that guiltied nom was eliminated in ELO.

Power imbalance and DGB has a scum history of fake claiming cop.

I was shading it because I thought it would have to be VT for balance reasons (I expected a vig) and forgot about its odd crumb.

Scum like Titus have fake claimed cop so it was a if I had to drag her to elo thing but it was never the plan. When I am scum Titus town elos suck because she usually plays them right

[MathBlade]

I looked at that game @mathblade and I'm very confused why the claimed cop that guiltied nom was eliminated in ELO.

Power imbalance and DGB has a scum history of fake claiming cop.

I was shading it because I thought it would have to be VT for balance reasons (I expected a vig) and forgot about its odd crumb.

Scum like Titus have fake claimed cop so it was a if I had to drag her to elo thing but it was never the plan. When I am scum Titus town elos suck because she usually plays them right

Scum smart players like Titus*

I swear I can type lol

[Dwlee99]

Scum on my wagon: Titus/Manateegal
Scum off my wagon: maybe geraintm?
Nullish reads: Roden I'm having trouble reading, same with not_mafia, Marci, and max
Town reads: Salsa, Kyo gets to be town leanish, omo, DGB town lean

Formatted pretty for anyone who wants that

Salsa, omo
Kyo, DGB
NM, Marci, Max
Roden
Geraintm
Titus
Manateegal

[MathBlade]

Aww Dwlee am I aligned with the mod then? *begs for a read*

[Dwlee99]

Oh you weren't on the vote count so I missed you. Felt like my list was too short

Salsa, omo
Kyo, DGB
NM, Marci, Max, Math
Roden
Geraintm
Titus
Manateegal